🚨💥 OCTOBER 10, 2025 - TRUMP CRASHES MARKET AGAIN
"HERE WE GO AGAIN" - $1.2 TRILLION ERASED IN 40 MINUTES
The Event Timeline
10:57 AM ET: President Trump posts massive paragraph about China
- "One of the policies we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States"
- Cancels meeting with China
- Blames China for cheating on trade
By 11:00 AM ET (3 minutes later): S&P 500 erased $700 BILLION in market cap
By 11:37 AM (40 minutes later): S&P 500 erased $1.2 TRILLION in market cap
The Carnage (At Close)
- Dow: Down 865 points
- S&P: Down 147 points (down 2%+)
- NASDAQ: Down 812 points
- NASDAQ 100: Down 3%
- Russell 2000: Down 2.5%
- SOX (Semiconductors): Down 5.25%
- Transports: Down 3.4%, down ~500 points
Gary at 3:25pm: "Our favorite stocks slammed. No stone left unturned today."
Chinese Stocks - "That's a Slaughter"
- Alibaba: Down 15%
- Baidu: Down 11%
- FUTU: Down 12%
- Gary: "The China market's getting whacked. Emerging markets getting whacked. Foreign markets getting whacked."
If you're left with 3% drop today, you're good.
😤 GARY'S FRUSTRATION WITH TRUMP
"I Am Disheartened"
Gary's Opening: "On a day where we were going to come in today and praise the president... for his diplomacy in the Middle East, as the hostages look like they are coming back... And then, the hook."
His Core Complaints
- "I don't want any more tariffs. It hurts us, not them"
- "Doesn't the president know he already crashed the markets once with big tariffs?" (April Liberation Day)
- "The president knows what the market's doing today"
- "I wish the president out of this"
- "We have no control of the situation, except we know how to control the money"
The Relationship
Gary: "Let's call them a love-dislike relationship between myself and the president. You know what the dislikes have been? The tariffs, the interference, and all kinds of other crap that is not free market conservatism."
What He Loves:
- Middle East diplomacy (hostages coming back)
- Border security ("saving lives")
What He Dislikes:
- Tariffs ("big tax hike on us")
- Market interference
- "Not free market conservatism"
Gary's Assessment
"Doesn't the president know he already crashed the markets once with big tariffs and big tariff talk? It's a simple question. I gather he does."
"All I can tell you that some very harsh words out of him caused a nice little dump today."
"This should be easy, and he makes it difficult."
🎯 GARY'S UNCERTAINTY - "WE HAVE NO CLUE"
The Problem
"We have absolutely no idea what's next from him. 0%. As John Vernon said at Animal House, 0.0. Have no clue."
Three Possible Scenarios for Monday
- Trump Backtracks: "If he changes his mind, what do I think happens? The market bounces."
- Gary: "He has been known to backtrack. He's known to change his mind based on markets"
- April example: They rolled back Liberation Day tariffs after market crashed
- Trump Doubles Down: "I have no clue if he comes back on the weekend and puts the fork in with big tariffs"
- Die Already Cast?: "Do we have wheels in motion no matter what? Meaning we were due for this to happen and this is the push. I don't know."
Gary's Honesty
"How's that for a lot of certainty?"
"We have no clue if we gap down on Monday. We don't know if we gap up on Monday."
"I really wish I could give you some sort of sense of certainty. I can't."
📉 TECHNICAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (Oct 10)
What Broke Today
- Banks: Broke 50-day today (regionals were already weak)
- Junk Bonds: Worse today (had topped yesterday)
- "Everything": Gary says no stone left unturned
What Still Hasn't Broken (Yet)
Big Indices: "Still not broke the 50-day"
- "Really all they have done is give back the last eight days of trading"
- Gary: "In the big scheme of things, not the biggest of deals, but it still sucks. Because it should not have to be."
What Went UP Today (Defensive Flight)
- Food, beverage, tobacco
- Waste management
- Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Walmart
- Gold bounced after yesterday's trashing
Good News Hidden in Carnage
- 10-Year Yield: Down to 4.051 (down 0.97, almost a full point) - "That's great for mortgages"
- Oil: Down almost $3 - "Looks like breaking to downside here. That's good news"
- Gary: "There's nothing better fundamentally than oil prices and interest rates dropping. Cost of capital and cost of energy dropping is great news"
💼 GARY'S ACTIONS TODAY (Oct 10)
What He Did
- Took some off the table: "Without naming names, ones that really had a China component to it"
- Still riding big indices: Since April 24, but "we're going to make some decisions on that just in case"
- Watching over weekend: "We'll see what happens Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday and Friday and Saturday"
His Position
- Still long QQQs since April 24 confirmation day
- Still long S&P since April 24
- "We've rode up the big indices since right after April 24th, as they have not once broken the 50-day moving average"
- Sold gold yesterday (Oct 9), made money
His Tactics
"Some of the strongest stocks in the market, just the machete came out and cut them off at the knees. That's what happened today. Even the best of the best."
"Names that look ready to break out? Nope. Names that were hanging in there? Nope."
📅 NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS (Major Banks)
Tuesday (Before Open)
- BlackRock, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo
- Domino's Pizza
Wednesday (Before Open)
- ASML (very important semiconductor - "getting trashed last three days")
- Bank of America, Morgan Stanley
Wednesday (After Close)
- JB Hunt (port and trucker), United Airlines, Las Vegas Sands
Thursday (Before Open)
- Bank of New York, Schwab, M&T Bank, KeyCorp, US Bank, Travelers
Thursday (After Close or Before?)
- Taiwan Semiconductor
Friday
- American Express, State Street Bank, Truist
Gary's Note: Major financial reporting in a very uncertain environment
🎯 GARY'S PRIOR WARNINGS - ALL VALIDATED TODAY
Before Today Happened, Gary Had Already Warned:
- Restaurants, housing, housing-related: Bear markets
- Most retail: Downtrends
- Airlines, cruise lines, hotels: Recently topped
- Auto dealers and autos: Weak (GM/Ford broke out then failed)
- Financials: Private equity, investment managers going down
- Truckers and rails: Weak
- "Our left screen is laden with very, very weak technology stocks, while a select group has been the strength"
Today: "Well, they get in the select group today, unfortunately. To what extent, we don't know. It's just one day, but it's icky."
More Broke Today
- More stocks broke 50-day moving average
- Banks broke 50-day
- Consumer areas "smeared" - restaurants, retail, housing, airlines, cruise lines, hotels, booking holdings
- "Just everything worsening"
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE CONTEXT (Before Crash)
What Gary Said Yesterday (Oct 9)
- "Our list of good areas is narrowing"
- Credit concerns emerging (junk bonds, First Brands bankruptcy)
- 30-35% of market already in dire straits
- Big 7 (35% of S&P, 65% of NASDAQ 100) were holding everything up
Today's Reality
Even the Big 7 got hit, though indices still above 50-day moving average
💭 GARY'S PHILOSOPHY REMINDER
Government Intervention
"We hate that part. We want government out of the free markets. Republican or Democrat or Whig party or independent does not matter to us. Again, no agenda, ulterior motive, or bias on that."
Market Prediction
"Typically, the market is a forecaster of things to come. These days, it is a day for day based on the president."
Recent Speculative Mania
"We've seen stocks skyrocket in the last three weeks. Some very speculative stuff because they took positions in companies or they announced this industry or that industry."
"There's a lot of moving parts, and again, we hate that part."
🚨 THE PARALLEL TO APRIL
April "Liberation Day" Tariff Crash
- S&P dropped 22%
- Gary: "Anybody want a 22% drop? By the way, we're not predicting that. The S&P is down 2% right now."
- Trump changed his mind over weekend after market crashed
- Rumor leaked they were going to pause, they waited until Wednesday
- "Boom. That's the whole story."
Today's Situation
- Same pattern: Trump tariff threat crashes market
- Will he backtrack again?
- Gary: "The hope is, the big hope is, that he sees the market and recognizes the market's bigger than him. I can promise you that."
⚠️ GARY'S BOTTOM LINE (Oct 10)
On Trump: "We're really rooting for the guy, but he's getting in the face again."
On The Market: "Before today, there was some freaking issues in the market already, and today it worsened."
On What's Next: "We have no clue what happens on Monday because we don't know what the president's going to follow through with."
On Importance: "I can't begin to tell you how important this tariff thing is. I can't begin to tell you how important this tariff thing is."
His Promise: "Come Monday, we'll have a better idea."
His Plan: Scanning thousands of stocks this weekend, doing big webcasts
📈 THE IRONY
Gary opened the show planning to:
- Praise Trump profusely for Middle East diplomacy (hostages returning)
- Blast Nobel Peace Prize committee for not giving Trump the award
Instead, he spent the entire show dealing with Trump crashing the market.
Gary: "Again, wish we had better news, but uncertain times it is. And we like to put a good spin, but it's very tough. Market doesn't care about us."
No comments:
Post a Comment