Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

 📅 Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

Market Action

• Dow: -74 points (BUT Caterpillar alone = +390 Dow points!)
• NASDAQ: +130 points
• Breadth: DISASTER - 1,342 up vs 3,172 down on NASDAQ (2:1 negative!)
• NYSE Breadth: 1,382 up vs 2,977 down (2:1 negative)
• "Underneath the surface not good"

Fed Drama: Powell cut rates 4% → 3.75%, but 10-year yield ROSE 0.75 (3.98 → 4.058). Gary: "He's a doofus. He's been wrong forever." Warns if Trump takes over Fed and cuts to 2%, 10-year could jump to 5%+ and "then I'll give you a housing problem."

After-Hours Bombs:

• Google: +$17 to $291 (lawsuit win) - "I remember being told Google was left behind in AI. My arse."
• Meta: -$65 (disaster)
• Microsoft: -$16
• Carvana: -$37 (10%)
• ServiceNow: +$39 (after being down $25 during day)

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. AI Semiconductors - Broadcom +$12, NVIDIA +$6.50, KLAC +$43, SanDisk +$29
2. Oils - Up on higher oil prices
3. Select Earnings Winners - Caterpillar, Seagate, Teradyne

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Gary's explicit "avoid" list that ALL worsened today:

• Payroll Stocks - ADP/Paychex NEW YEARLY LOWS (Amazon cutting 30K jobs)
• Private Equity - Blackstone, Apollo, KKR "smashed"; Evercore -$29
• Consumer Staples - Food, beverage, tobacco, household, alcohol
• Restaurants - Bear markets
• Travel - Cruise lines (Royal Caribbean -$13), airlines, hotels
• Retail - "Ton of it" in bearish phase
• Insurance - Bearish phase
• Housing/Housing-Related - Weak
• Exchanges - CME, CBOE weak
• Waste Management - Classic bear market
• Financials - Regional banks, private equity, payments (MasterCard/Visa)
• Down-and-Out Tech (Gary's "Left Screen") - See massive list below

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winners:

• Caterpillar - +$61 (390 Dow points alone! Earnings down but sales better)
• Seagate - +$43
• Teradyne - +$30
• Broadcom - +$12
• NVIDIA - +$6.50
• Palantir - +$8
• SanDisk - +$29
• KLAC - +$43 ("thousand dollar name")
• Google - +$7 during day, +$17 aftermarket to $291

Lagging Stocks 📉

Earnings Disasters:

• Fair Isaac - -$100
• AutoZone - -$93
• Stride (education) - -54% (171→75 since August high)
• Serve - -44% today (238→70 since February)
• Cavco Industries - -53%
• Verona Systems - -48% (down $31 to $32)
• Garmin - -$29
• Evercore - -$29 (9%), breaking down
• Clean Harbors - -$28
• BlackRock - -$27, breaking down after trying to break out
• ServiceNow - -$25 (but +$39 aftermarket on conference call)

Jobs Carnage:

• ADP - -$18.41 (-6.6%) to NEW YEARLY LOW
• Paychex - -5.36% to NEW YEARLY LOW
• Amazon - Cutting 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs (AI/robotics replacing people)

Gary's "Left Screen" - Down on NASDAQ +130 Day:

• Duolingo -$21, Garmin -$28, S&P Global -$20, Carvana -$8
• Expedia -$5, Autodesk -$14, F5 Networks -$8, Guidewire -$13
• Intuit -$22, SCI -$26, ServiceNow -$26

Consumer Staples Destruction:

• Colgate: 110→75
• Clorox: 171→110
• General Mills: 91 (2023)→46 (almost 50% drop)

Restaurant/Retail Obliteration:

• Kava Group: 172→60 in 12 months
• Lululemon: 423→170

Travel Continuing:

• Royal Caribbean - -$13 today (strongest cruise line completely breaking down)

Financials Breaking:

• Broadridge: 271→220 (blasted)
• PJT Partners: -$13, breaking down
• Goldman Sachs: -$9 (waffled)
• Citigroup: Down a couple (waffled)
• MasterCard/Visa: Acting terribly

After-Hours:

• Meta - -$65 (disaster)
• Microsoft - -$16

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Bought and stopped out of Meta 6 weeks ago (-1%)
• Glad he doesn't own Meta now
• Avoiding ALL the bearish areas listed
• Watching big banks carefully - "normal for big banks to go last. We hope they don't go."
• "If you want to know the problem with Starbucks... price. People are price conscious."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary warns Powell is a "doofus" who caused inflation by printing $9 trillion and is now making it worse by cutting too fast. The 10-year yield spiking 0.75 WHILE the Fed cuts is the bond market screaming "inflation coming back." If Trump takes over the Fed and cuts rates to 2%, Gary expects 10-year yields to jump to 5%+ which would crash housing. The split tape is "as split as split can go" with breadth 2:1 negative despite NASDAQ +130. "Underneath the surface not good."

Key Observations 💡

• Amazon Job Cuts: 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs = 6-8 billion savings from AI/robotics
• Make Yourself Indispensable: Gary's urgent advice as payroll stocks hit new lows
• Extreme Split Tape: "A crapload of stocks heading south on I-95 and at the same time a crapload heading north"
• Bond Market Rebelling: Fed cuts but yields spike - free market saying "inflation's coming back"
• Breadth Disaster: 2:1 negative on both NASDAQ and NYSE despite indices up
• Google Vindication: "I was told Google was left behind in AI. My arse." Up $17 aftermarket
• Meta Implosion: Down $65 aftermarket - Zuckerberg down billions
• Apple/Amazon Tomorrow: Big earnings after close Thursday