Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 23, 2025 (Wednesday)

📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025 - "IMPRESSIVE COMEBACK" - BREAKOUT WATCH

Market Action - Strong Rally

Dow: +144 (Honeywell contributed 90 points)
NASDAQ: Up big, approaching breakout
NASDAQ 100: Up, only 100 points from breakout
Semiconductors (SOX): "They jammed the semis today" - strong
Transports: Down 300 (Ryder -$22)

Context: Yesterday down 400, finished down 200. Today strong comeback.

🚨 BREAKOUT LEVELS - GARY'S WATCHLIST

If These Break, "Another Leg Up, Maybe a Good One":

NASDAQ: Above 23,120 (the high from two Fridays ago before tariff crash)
NASDAQ 100: Above 25,196 (only 100 points away!)
SOX (Semiconductors): Above 6,890-6,940
S&P 500: Above 6,765

Gary's Take:

"I'm impressed. I'm impressed. And a break above those levels should probably lead to another leg up of unknown price, unknown time."

"If the semiconductors break above that, well, there you go with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100."

🎢 EARNINGS SEASON INSANITY - WILD REVERSALS

Tesla - $36 Reversal in One Day

At Open: Down $26 to $413.90 (first 5-minute bar at lows)
At Close: UP $10
Total Swing: $36 reversal

Earnings: 31% drop in earnings Market's Story: "Don't worry about the cars. It's all about robo-taxis and robots now"

Gary: "If Tesla was selling popcorn, the stock instead of being at $449, would probably be 70."

IBM - Big Dow Reversal

At Open: Down $25 to $263 (~160 Dow points down)
At Close: Down only $2.50
Reversed very well

United Rentals - 20-Minute Rollercoaster

Gap down to $937: Down $53
Within 20 minutes hit $991: Rallied $51 (down only $2)
Finished: Down $77
One day: Drop $53, rally $51, drop $75

Gary: "This is what we get to deal with sometimes around earnings season. Yippee yay yay."

Honeywell - 5 Years of Nothing, Then Moves

Flat since 2020 (5 years)
Recently $241 → $200
Today: Up $14 on single-digit earnings (contributed 90 of Dow's 144 points)

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductors & Tech - "THEY JAMMED THE SEMIS"

SOX strong, approaching breakout level
AI stocks: "Boy, it's getting distributed. They just jumped all over it today."
Get-backs everywhere: "Down 15 yesterday, up 11 today"

Software - Waking Up?

Been dormant for weeks
Trading where it was in July
Gary: "If that can get going, that shall add to the good action in technology"

Oil & Energy - Sanctions Boost

Oil up $3 on Russia sanctions
About 15 oil names at/near new yearly highs
Reason: "Cost the same to bring out. You get to charge more to send it out. Margin expansion."

Gary's Caution: "I don't know if I would trust it because I don't know how long they keep the sanctions on Russia"

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Transports - Down 300 Today

Ryder (R): Down $22, big breakdown (vehicle leasing)
Sector continues weakness

Quantum Stocks - Still Be Careful

Crashed 30-60% in 6 days
Today: Up on Wall Street Journal report (administration taking positions)
Yahoo Finance said WSJ wrong
WSJ said Yahoo wrong
Stocks bounced but still way down

Gary's Warning: "We have no edge when you go up and then drop 30 to 60 percent in six days. You're always going to probably bounce a little bit. Be careful."

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Big Earners Today

Honeywell: +$14 (90 Dow points, flat since 2020)
Tesla: Down $26 → Finished UP $10 ($36 reversal)
IBM: Reversed from -$25 to only -$2.50

Oil Stocks

15 names at/near new yearly highs on Russia sanctions

Semiconductors

Strong across the board

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Earnings Losers

United Rentals: Down $77 after wild swings
Ryder (R): Down $22, breakdown
Blackstone: Bad reaction
Decker's: Big bear market, down in aftermarket
Ford: Down couple percent aftermarket

Aftermarket Movers

Intel: Up couple bucks (10% owned by government now)
Ford: Down couple percent

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Watching Breakout Levels: Not predicting, will react if they break

On Government Positions in Companies:

"We would not be happy if we don't like any of this socialism. Sorry. Remember what we have said to you. What goes around comes around. Tariff policy. What if a Marxist takes over the White House in 28? What are they going to do with tariff policy?"

"Taking positions in companies? I'm not happy. I don't want to see it. This should not be that mix, ladies and gentlemen."

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is watching critical breakout levels after an impressive comeback from yesterday's 400-point drop. If NASDAQ breaks 23,120, NASDAQ 100 breaks 25,196, and semiconductors break 6,890-6,940, he expects "another leg up of unknown price, unknown time." The earnings season volatility (Tesla $36 reversal, United Rentals wild swings) shows extreme emotions but also resilience. Software waking up from dormancy could add fuel. However, quantum stocks crashing 30-60% in 6 days and transports breaking down show speculation unwinding and economic concerns. For now, bullish IF breakouts occur, but earnings season creating massive daily volatility. Next week brings the big tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) which will be critical.

📅 UPCOMING EARNINGS - NEXT WEEK

The Big Tech Week:

Apple
Amazon
Google
Microsoft
Meta

Also: Jay Powell announcement

Gary: "Keep in mind, everything's reporting earnings."

💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

On the Comeback

"After that Friday, hell no. Yesterday, we were down 400, finished down 200. And I'm thinking, okay, we finished pretty good. We'll probably have an update today. But they jammed the semis today."

On Earnings Volatility

"A lot of Jell-O moving on the plate. This is what we get to deal with sometimes around earnings season."

On Breakouts

"If we don't break out, we don't break out. We're not predicting. We'll react if it does."

On Tesla's Story

"The story is, well, don't worry about the cars. It's all about robo-taxis and robots now, or whatever the robo thing is. And the market certainly believes it because the numbers stink."

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Thursday, October 23, 2025

IMPRESSIVE COMEBACK - BREAKOUT WATCH