Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 21, 2025 (Monday)

📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2025 - GOLD CRASHES, SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING

Market Action

Dow: Up 218 (heavyweight stocks: 3M +$75, Salesforce helped)
S&P: Flat
NASDAQ: Down
Russell 2000: Down
SOX (Semiconductors): Finally down day after big run
Transports: Up

Gary: "It was very Dow-ish. What we mean by that is, we mentioned 3M. Salesforce.com looks like the stock has finally bottomed after a bear market of many, many months."

💥 GOLD CRASHES 6.25% - "THE AIR CAME OUT"

Gold's Setup and Fall

18-Week Range: Gold stuck at $316-317 resistance The Breakout: Gold miners broke out first (bullish signal), then gold broke out 5-6 days later The Parabolic Move: Late September, went "7pm to 1am on a clock" - nearly vertical TODAY: GLD dropped $26 (6.25%)

Why Gary Sold (8 Days Ago)

Sentiment Off Charts: Investment banks NOW recommending 10-20% allocations AFTER three massive moves
Ridiculously Extended: "Very ridiculously extended to the upside"
Dollar Strengthening: Starting to turn the corner

Gary's Reaction:

"We sold like 8 days ago. We really thought it was a one hell of a sell signal. We were wrong. And then came Friday, we thought it was another big sell signal, and we were wrong because they gapped it up yesterday. Well, today, let's call it the air came out on a near-term basis."

Current Status

Gold miners now weaker than the metal (bearish)
Highs of yesterday "could be it for now. Possibly. Maybe could be."
If corrective work happens, Gary will look to get back in
"We're not so sure the move's over. But pretty decent chance the highs of yesterday could be it for now."

🚨 SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING - NO-SALES STOCKS CRASHING

Rare Earth Stocks Collapsing

Example 1: $32 → $16 in 6 days (50% drop) Example 2: $81 → $34 in 3-5 days
Example 3: $44 → $26 in 6 days

Gary: "The bloom is coming off the rose right now."

Nuclear Stocks (No Sales) Crashing

Example 1: $47 → $38 in 4 days (no sales) Example 2: $61 → $42 in 4 days (no sales) Example 3: $194 → $139 in 5 days - Still has $20.5 billion market cap with NO SALES

Quantum Computing Stocks Dropping

Example: $58 → $40 in 3-4 days

CEO said they won't have "scale" (sales) for a decade
Office is in a strip shopping center

Gary's Warning:

"If you do not have your wits about you and you fall into the trap of froth and speculation and just buy anything at any price, wow. Most of the noise is after the move."

The GameStop Lady Story

Gary got call from ~80-year-old woman during GameStop mania:

Stock already up 6x in a week
She asked if she should buy
He warned about risk
She said "what if it goes higher?"
While on phone, stock went up 5% more
She got mad at him
Next day was the climactic move, then crashed

Gary: "This is what we mean by losing your head. That's what happens in markets."

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Gold & Gold Miners

GLD: Down $26 (6.25%)
Gold miners weaker than metal now

Down and Out Tech - Bounced Today

Various beaten-down tech stocks bounced
While stronger tech came in

AI Energy Plays - Weak

Symbols mentioned: GEV, TLN, CEG, VST

"Got some of the construction stuff of AI. You know, the data centers and all that crap."
"Froth really coming off"

Banks

"Not very good action in some of the banks today. The big banks."

No-Sales Speculation Stocks - CRASHING

Rare earth materials
Nuclear (no sales)
Quantum computing
Dollar stocks that went to $6 in 4 days now reversing

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

"Revenge of the Nerds" - Beaten Down Bouncing

Housing: Bounced Insurance: Bounced Economically Sensitive: Bounced Restaurants: Some bounced Down and Out Financials: Some bounced Retail: Even Lululemon up $9 (though down from $423 in January to $181)

Why? These are the areas Gary's been telling people to avoid - having bounce day

Semiconductors (SOX)

Finally had down day after massive run
Still in uptrend overall

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Dow Components

3M: Up $12.60 (~75 Dow points)

Trading where it was in 2017 (8 years of no gains)
At Trump tariff crash lows, had to go back to 2004

Salesforce.com: Up big (~60 Dow points)

"Looks like the stock has finally bottomed after a bear market of many, many, many, many months"
Weak going back to 2020

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Crashed Speculation Stocks

Beyond Meat: Up 146% today (then up big aftermarket)

News: Walmart deal to increase availability at 2,000 stores
Gary: "That plant ain't happening. Stock dropped 99% or something like that."

No-Sales Stocks Crashing (see Speculation Bubble section above)

Tech Getting Hit

AI energy plays (GEV, TLN, CEG, VST)
AI construction/data center stocks

Aftermarket Movers

Netflix: Missed by $1.09, but guided Q4 above consensus

Closed Thursday $1,183, closed today $1,241
Aftermarket: $1,183 (down $58, back to Thursday lows)

Intuitive Surgical: Up $110 to $573 aftermarket (+24%)

Beats by 41 cents, revenues rose 23%
"That'll come out of a bear market quickly"

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Out of Gold

Sold 8 days ago for profit
Thought he nailed the top - wrong twice
Today finally dropped
Made $55 in 5 weeks on the trade

Watching Speculation Collapse

Not buying the no-sales stocks, just watching them crash

Still Monitoring

Tech sectors for strength
Down and out areas for bottoming patterns

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is watching the air come out of the speculation bubble (no-sales stocks in rare earth, nuclear, quantum computing crashing 30-50% in days) which is a classic late-stage market signal. Gold's 6.25% crash after extreme sentiment readings suggests even "safe haven" trades are rolling over. The fact that indices were mixed (Dow +218, NASDAQ down) while more established names bounced shows rotation rather than broad strength. Gary's sentiment indicators fired correctly on gold - when investment banks recommend 10-20% allocations AFTER massive moves, that's typically the top. He's not predicting a crash but notes these are the types of sentiment extremes and speculation blow-offs that precede major corrections.

💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

On Sentiment and Cycle Work

"Gold for 18 weeks was range-bound. The gold miners broke out while gold was just sitting range-bound. And as we have taught you, typically when the miners lead, that's bullish for gold."

"What happened recently, more and more people that I don't even know were asking me about gold. More and more and more and more were asking me about gold. And that was after a big move up."

"Investment bankers, brokerages are actually coming out and saying you need to have 10% of your assets in gold or 20%. Just remember, these brokerage firms are marketing. They're always marketing."

On Speculation Warnings

"If you do not have your wits about you and you fall into the trap of froth and speculation and just buy anything at any price, wow."

"When a company has no sales, never had sales, been public 15 years, has $10B market cap, it's loony. But then it doubles to $20B market cap."

"Most of the noise is after the move."

On Market Action

"It was a mixed day. And how's that for an answer? A mixed day."

"Revenge of the nerds day. Housing bounced. Insurance bounced. Economically sensitive bounced. You had some restaurants bounce today. You had some down and out financials bounce."

📊 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS

Tuesday AM

Texas Instruments (reported - down $11 aftermarket)
Capital One (up few bucks aftermarket)

This Week

GM: Had good move on earnings (5x average volume)
Ford: Had good day (reports in 2 days)

Gary: "We will just be ready for anything."

Previous Update: October 17, 2025 (Friday) - See below for history

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

GOLD CRASHES, SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING