🚨GARY'S MOST EXPLICIT WARNING

Last Updated: October 8, 2025

"IF THIS OCCURS, YOU AIN'T GONNA HEAR IT FROM ANYBODY"

Gary's Direct Statement: "We're predicting nothing. We're outlining potentiality. We're seeing all these ingredients and we're going to try and take advantage of it like there's no tomorrow."

TODAY'S ACTION - THE PATTERN IS HERE

Dow: Down 1 point
NASDAQ: Up 255
NASDAQ 100: Up 296
Philly Semiconductor: Up 225

Individual Moves (One-Note Market):

Dell +14, NVIDIA +4, AMD +24 (no news today, up $25)
CrowdStrike +25, Snowflake +15, Micron +10
Taiwan Semi +10, SanDisk +11
Gold: GLD up another $6

Gary: "When I see a day like today where the Dow was down one but you got names in one space in the market skyrocketing... we're going to be paying attention every single day"

📅 THE 1999 PLAYBOOK - EXACT DATES & NUMBERS

What Happened Then (Gary's Historical Lesson)

The Setup (1998-1999):

Aug/Sept 1998: NASDAQ crashed from $2,000 to $1,357 (LTCM crisis)
Bottomed and rallied to $2,533 in 3 months
Feb 1999: Started drifting sideways
Jan-Oct 1999: NASDAQ only $2,500 to $2,600 (9 months sideways)

The Breakout:

October 29, 1999: NASDAQ broke out above $2,923
March 10, 2000: Hit $5,132 peak
Result: $2,923 → $5,132 in 4.5 months (76% gain)

Meanwhile:

S&P only went $1,342 → $1,553 (16% gain)
Why? Financials already in bear market, other areas bearish
Homebuilding stocks at 1x earnings
"Became something of a one-note market. And then, of course, topped out"

The Crash (2000-2003):

NASDAQ: $5,132 → $1,108 (80% drop)
Wild counter-trend rallies during bear:
- $5,132 → $3,042 (2 months), rallied to $4,200 (40% bounce)
- Dropped to $1,600, rallied to $2,300 (40% bounce)
- Dropped to $1,387, rallied to $2,100 (huge rally)
- "Everyone thinking bear market was over"
- Final drop to $1,108

The Cause:

"Unbelievable concentration in the markets"
Vendor financing: "Companies lent money to other companies to buy that first company's products"
"Nefarious dealings" - companies like Nortel went bust

⚠️ THE TRIGGER GARY'S WATCHING FOR

"IF WE START TO SEE THE NASDAQ AND NASDAQ 100 GO VERTICAL, JUST BE PREPARED"

Specific Signals:

Vertical Move Pattern: "If the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 and semiconductors start having the same pattern we saw in 1999 forced off, we're going to be in"
The Final Blow-Off: From October 1999 breakout: "Drawn out move with two visits down towards 50-day and big reversal. I believe early February. $3,748 within six weeks to $5,132"
Retail Mania Signal: "If I'm getting calls from 90 year old women wanting to sell their CDs and buy a nuclear stock, we'll know something's up"
All-In Tight Move: When institutions all pile into same narrow group
SOX Breakout: "Broke out 3-4 weeks ago at 5,900, now at 6,860"

Gary's Proviso: "We do NOT want to see more days that remind us of way back when because based on precedent, if we get that same kind of environment, it will be the final leg before the air comes out"

📊 CURRENT CONDITIONS VS 1999

Concentration: "BEYOND 99"

Top 7 stocks = 36% of S&P 500 (all big tech)
"The concentration of the market is beyond 99"
"Money flow in institutions is becoming more and more towards the one note"
"Market is very much going towards one note"

Vendor Financing: "A BUNCH OF IT"

Gary: "You can actually draw a circle and post all these companies on there around the circle, and then intertwine them on lending and buying and buying and lending and lending and buying all artificial intelligence"

The Ingredients Are All Here

Extreme concentration (worse than 99)
Vendor financing (like 99)
Everyone announcing AI (like everyone adding .com to names)
Marketing hype vs reality (companies promoting AI with no real substance)
One-note market (financials bearish, other areas weak)
Narrowness accelerating

Missing: The vertical blow-off move (yet)

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING (Oct 8)

What He Owns

QQQs: Since April 24 confirmation day, never sold (except small piece)
S&P: Since April 24
Individual Positions: Robinhood, NVIDIA
Tesla: Just sold, made $70, bought back small
Gold: Made $60 in weeks

What He's Finding

"I got a bunch of names that we told to our peeps today. Guess where? All in technology land":

Artificial intelligence stocks
AI build-out companies
Semiconductor equipment for AI
Data centers for AI
Construction business for AI (data centers)
Energy companies to power AI

Gary: "We may see even more verticalness, maybe another word made up, of these names and areas"

His Strategy

"We're going to try and take advantage of it like there's no tomorrow"
"We're going to try and mine it for all it's worth"
Ready for earnings season to find "the next big deal. Not announcement, but numbers"
Watching for reactions to earnings (gap ups like last quarter that did nothing for 3 months)

🎯 GARY'S EXPLICIT WARNINGS (Oct 8)

"YOU AIN'T GONNA HEAR IT FROM ANYBODY"

Gary's blunt statement: "If this occurs, you ain't gonna hear it from anybody because they haven't done the studying and the post analysis that we have done of the precedence of past markets"

Not Predicting, Outlining

"We're predicting nothing. We're outlining everything"
"We're not predicting an 80% drop in the NASDAQ"
"We're not saying thing, we are outlining for you that we are seeing all these ingredients"
"There's potentiality. We're headed for some extremes. We'll see"

His Job

"It's all about fear and greed. Those emotions never go away. Fear and greed are the same as they all were in the year 1900. You go back to the cavemen, fear and greed. Our job: measure it. And when it goes to extremes, exploit it."

The Plan

"We'll be on it day to day" "Just want you to be ready" "We'll shut it down late and go through thousands and thousands of these earnings reports"

📈 TODAY'S MARKET REALITY (Oct 8)

What's Working

Semiconductors (SOX up 225)
AI-related everything
Gold (continuing parabolic move)
Commodities (if dollar keeps crashing)
Some names breaking out: Apple "looks about ready to finally break out to highs"
Software security "got trashed yesterday and right back up near highs"

What's NOT Working (The Other Side)

Banks "hit again today"
Retail "bounced but remains" weak
Salesforce.com: "Brutal Bear Market"
Adobe: "Brutal Bear Market"
Lower market cap stocks: "A lot of stocks have been left for dead"
"It's a lot of narrowness right now, kids"

Economic Reality (Gary's List)

Job market: Weakening
Construction market: Weakening
Housing market: Weakening
Manufacturing: Not great
Consumer: Very cost conscious
GDP: "In the threes. If you took out $2 trillion deficit spending, it would not be"

Gary on Trump: "I don't blame the president. His job is to market as much as he can"

🚨 THE SETUP IS COMPLETE - WAITING FOR TRIGGER

Gary's Assessment: All the ingredients from 1999 are present. The market is already more concentrated than 1999. Vendor financing is happening. One-note market developing.

What's Missing: The vertical blow-off move in NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100

When It Comes: "We're going to be in. And we're going to arrive in as much as we can. But... that's the end"

Gary's Promise: "We'll be on it and let me be about as blunt as possible. If this occurs, you ain't gonna hear it from anybody"

His message is clear: He's positioned to ride the final move up, but when he sees the vertical pattern like October 29, 1999 → March 10, 2000, he'll know it's time to exit because that's when "the air comes out."

"EVENTUAL WARNING SHOTS" - 1999 Conditions Accelerating

Paul Tudor Jones Agrees: PTJ on CNBC this morning saying "there is a chance for a 99-type move" - agrees with Gary's warnings

Today's Insanity - Criminal Pumps Biotech

The Most Disturbing Example Yet:

Man who served time for securities fraud and price gouging (barred from pharma industry, released 2022)
Posted about zero-sales biotech on Twitter/X today
Stock opened $54 → hit $250 → multiple trading halts → closed $130 (up $121)
Then closed $43 after more halts ($115 open)
Traded 24M shares with "hardly anything in the float"
Gary: "This is the type of stuff that has the two words written all over it: Warning shot. Warning shot. Warning shot."

AMD Deal - The Numbers Don't Add Up

AMD Announcement: Big AI/chip deal with OpenAI, 6 gigawatts mentioned

Opened at $227, closed $204 (still up $39 from prior)
Problem: AMD's last quarter earnings were DOWN 30% - lagging name
Juiced equipment makers: KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, ASML all up

Gary's Core Concern: "The numbers being announced, I'm sorry, there is NO WAY are going to come to fruition"

Free cash flow of mega companies announcing spending = CapEx is 2x free cash flow
"Just because somebody announces a big spend does NOT mean they're going to spend it"
"If you learned the lesson from 99, there was a lot of that going on. A hell of a lot of that"

Other Crazy Behavior Today

ChatGPT Conference: Mentioned Expedia, HubSpot, Mattel

Stocks "soared to the upside"
"Minutes later, they gave it all back"

Dollar/Penny Stocks Moving: More and more no-sales stocks rallying

"$2 stocks, 50 cent stocks, dollar stocks on the move"
"When a company has no sales, never had sales, been public 15 years, has $10B market cap, it's loony"
"But then it doubles to $20B market cap"
Creates mindset: "Nothing can go wrong until it does"

"Space Needles" - The End Signal

Gary watching for vertical moves at market tops:

Qualcomm: Did this in 99-2000
Tilray (marijuana): Did this few years ago
Definition: Chart makes vertical "space needle" pattern at the end
When these appear, it signals the blow-off top

Gary's 1999 Story - Why This Matters

Doctor Client Story:

Gary sold Oracle when it was up 4-5x
Client F-bombed him, fired him
Client bought it back
Two years later: Down 80%
Lesson: "When things get out of hand, when you have crazy things going on, it's typically late stage"

Triple-Digit Woman Story:

Another client fired Gary
Later sent apology letter when she understood

Gary's Positioning & Strategy

What He's Doing:

Still owns big indices since April 25th (confirmation day after Trump tariff crash)
"Not once have they broke 50-day moving average, which is amazing"
Still finding buyable names in growth land
Watching for breakouts on volume
"Eyes wide open going forward"

His Caveat: "We're not saying it's late stage. We're saying it's typically, but late stages can last a long time"

BamaTrades

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

🚨🚨🚨 OCTOBER 8, 2025 - GARY'S MOST EXPLICIT WARNING