Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis
Last Updated: October 27, 2025 (Monday)
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2025 - THE 1999 ENDGAME WARNING
Market Action - Big Tech Dominates Despite Terrible Breadth
- NASDAQ: +432 (gapped up)
- NASDAQ 100: +463
- Advance/Declines: 24 up, 20 down (terrible!)
- S&P: Broke out Friday but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA
Gary: "How do you go up that much? Meta +$12, Microsoft +$8, Tesla +$18, NVIDIA +$5.50, Google +$9."
🚨 GARY'S EXPLICIT 1999 COMPARISON
The Historical Pattern - Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000
NASDAQ: 2,966 → 5,132 (65% gain in 4.5 months) S&P 500: 1,363 → 1,527 (only 12% gain!) DOW: 10,729 → 9,928 (DOWN 7-8%!)
Gary: "It became the most one-note market I really have ever seen. Housing stocks went down to one times earnings."
Why It Happened - Institutional Fear
Portfolio managers knew tech valuations were "ridiculous" but executives pressured them: "How the hell do you own these Dow stocks? Why don't you own the hot stuff?"
Result: "They want to keep their jobs. So sell toll brothers and buy pets.com."
Cisco Prediction: Barron's writer said Cisco would drop 80%, everyone laughed. He was 100% right.
Intel Labor Day 2000: Day after Labor Day got downgraded. "That's when all hell broke loose."
⚠️ CURRENT MARKET - "WE'RE GETTING THERE"
Gary's Assessment:
"We're not even close to the one-note type market we saw from 99-2000. No, we're not. We're getting there. We're moving towards it."
Current Warning Signs:
- S&P breaks out but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA
- NASDAQ +432 but advance/declines 24 up, 20 down
- Seven stocks = 60%+ of NASDAQ 100 driving entire market
- "My left screen of technology stocks that are weaker can't even budge and more are breaking down"
🟢 LEADING SECTORS
The Big 7 + Semiconductors
- Meta: +$12 | Microsoft: +$8 | Tesla: +$18 | NVIDIA: +$5.50 | Google: +$9 | Amazon: reports this week
- Qualcomm: +$18 (up $34 at highs) on AI chip announcement
- Semiconductor equipment makers, data storage, data centers
Energy for AI
GEV and VST "on the weak side"
🔴 LAGGING SECTORS - BEAR MARKETS EVERYWHERE
Gary's List: Restaurants, housing/housing-related, consumer staples (most), insurance, travel-related, payroll stocks (ADP/Paychex), auto dealers, truckers, regional banks, lenders, retail (mostly)
Gary: "Fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at, at this juncture."
Rare Earth Stocks - 70% CRASH
"Down 70% in the last 10 business days. We hope you listen to us. Everything's great with China now. There's no 100% tariff. We told you that."
🚀 LEADING STOCKS
The Big 7
Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA, Google dominating
Qualcomm
+$18 on AI chip news
Retail Bright Spots
Blue Barn, Ross Stores at new yearly highs
📉 LAGGING STOCKS
Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, most retail, rare earth stocks (-70% in 10 days)
💰 GARY'S MAJOR STRATEGY SHIFT - TARIFF THREATS
New Stance on Tariff Announcements:
"On that day [China tariff threat], we sold a little, and I ain't ever sell them again. They ain't doing it, they're full of crap."
"There's no way into an election year they're doing 100% tariff on China because that will be their doom. Recession, contraction, market drop."
New Strategy:
"So the next bad day, when they announce a big tariff, I may buy, I just may buy blindly."
🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK
Gary delivered his most explicit 1999 warning yet, walking through the exact pattern: NASDAQ up 65% (Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000) while Dow fell 7-8%. Current market is "getting there, moving towards it" with terrible breadth (24 up, 20 down despite +432), only 53% of S&P above 50-day MA, and Big 7 comprising 60%+ of NASDAQ 100. He detailed how institutional fear forced portfolio managers to buy overvalued tech to keep their jobs despite knowing it would crash. CapEx promises now far exceed 1999 levels. Gary warns "you best keep listening because if this becomes more 1999-ish, it shall be an endgame." However, he's now convinced tariff threats are bluffs in election year and may buy blindly next time.
💡 KEY OBSERVATIONS
On AI CapEx: "With the numbers being bandied about by these AI-type names on CapEx, I still remember 99, it was nothing in 99 compared to what the promises are these days. Boy, they better come out with these numbers because if they don't, uh-oh."
On Too Many AI Chip Makers: "You now have Qualcomm and Alibaba and Baidu and Nvidia and AMD. How many companies now are going to make AI chips?"
Full Disclosure: "We are not saying 1999 is going to happen. We are not saying we're going into an 80% drop. We're just telling you it's becoming more and more one note. And we're just telling you there's fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at."
📅 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS
Big Tech Week: Google (Tuesday), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta - all the Big 7 reporting
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