Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis
Last Updated: October 14, 2025
📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2025 - "THEY'RE TAKING OVER"
Market Action - Wild Intraday Swings
- Dow: Down 600 at 9:45am (45,452) → Up 1,070 points to 46,522 at 2pm → Dropped 250 in 10 minutes → Finished +200
- NASDAQ: Some "icky" - semiconductors hit at close
- 10-Year Yield: Dropped again (good for bonds/housing)
- Bitcoin/Crypto: Weak
What Happened
Two Major Events Drove the Day:
-
9am-2pm Rally (+1,070 points): Fed Chair Jay Powell announced Fed will STOP letting bonds roll off balance sheet - essentially reprinting money. This drops interest rates, good for stocks.
-
3:40pm Drop (-250 points in 10 minutes): Trump accused China of "economically hostile act" for not buying US soybeans. Semiconductors got hit.
🚨 GARY'S MAJOR RANT: "THEY'RE TAKING OVER"
Government Taking Positions in Companies
Nova Minerals (NVA) - The Latest Example:
- Up 110% today to $71.84
- NO SALES - just a "development stage mining company"
- Announcement: Company "engaged in talks with the President" on critical minerals
- Stock was moving last week BEFORE announcement (insider trading?)
- Traded 9M shares today with only 6M float
Other Government-Backed No-Sales Stocks:
- Mining company: $3→$10, now $2B market cap, NO SALES
- TMQ: $2→$10.50
- Another: $7→$30 in 6 days
- About 30 others moving with no announcements
- Intel position: Buying occurred before announcement
Gary's Take:
"What the hell's going on here? You're the government. These are private companies. What the hell's going on here?"
"When the music stops, these stocks that have no sales - they all crash. Somebody is going to have their arse if they don't trade out of it."
Fed "Reprinting Money"
Jay Powell's Move Today:
- Fed was reducing balance sheet (letting bonds roll off from $9T to ~$7T)
- TODAY: Announced stopping the roll-off
- Will start buying bonds again with "conjured up, fake money"
- This caused the 1,000 point rally
Gary's Reaction:
"The market's at or near highs and he's reprinting money, which is going to create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done."
Trump Tariff Power Concerns
Apple Example:
- Paid $1.9 billion and "had to bend the knees" to get tariff exemption
Gary's Warning:
"Imagine when a Marxist is in the White House and he has that tax power. If you don't think that can happen, I got some Everglades land for you. What are they going to do with their newfound tariff power created by this president? We're screwed."
🟢 LEADING SECTORS
"Revenge of the Worst" - Bounced on Fed News
Housing Stocks - Rates down helped
Airlines - Still in downtrends but bounced
Cruise Lines - Still in downtrends but bounced
Transports - Bounced
Auto Dealers - Bounced
Why? Fed reprinting money = lower interest rates = these rate-sensitive sectors rally
Financials - Wild Day
Banks benefited from rate moves despite earnings:
- Goldman Sachs: Down 40 at open → Down 2 mid-day → Finished down 16 (reversed $38 from lows)
- JP Morgan: Down 14 early → Got to flat → Finished down 6
Mining/Critical Minerals - Government-Pumped Theme
- Nova Minerals (NVA): +110%
- TMQ: Recent $2→$10.50 move
- Caterpillar: Strong (mining equipment)
- Multiple other no-sales mining companies going vertical
🔴 LAGGING SECTORS
Semiconductors - Hit at Close
- NVIDIA: Took hit on China soybean threat
- Sector sold off into close on Trump-China tensions
Crypto/Bitcoin
- Weak today
- Gary warns: "Bitcoin dropped 75% in last bear market. There is no thought another bear market isn't going to happen."
🚀 LEADING STOCKS
Government-Backed No-Sales Mining Stocks
- Nova Minerals (NVA): +110% to $71.84
- TMQ: $2→$10.50
- Various others: $7→$30 in 6 days, $3→$10, etc.
Industrial/Mining Equipment
- Caterpillar: Strong (benefits from mining theme)
Financials (Relative Strength)
- Goldman Sachs: Reversed $38 from lows (still finished -16)
- JP Morgan: Reversed $14 from lows (finished -6)
📉 LAGGING STOCKS
Semiconductors (Hit at Close)
- NVIDIA: Dropped on China tensions
- Semiconductor sector: Sold off into close
Crypto
- Bitcoin: Weak today
💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING
What He's Doing
- Still out of gold - Now up $67 total since he sold Thursday
- Gary: "Nice sell" (sarcastic - clearly frustrated he missed the move)
- Watching the no-sales mining stocks but NOT buying them
His Warning on Gold
"Do you know why gold is going up? Think about it." (Implying: massive deficits, money printing, loss of confidence)
🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK
Gary is increasingly concerned that Fed reprinting money will create bigger bubbles, stating "the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done." He's watching extreme speculation in 30+ no-sales mining stocks being pumped by government announcements, obvious insider trading patterns (volume spikes before announcements), and Trump's continued tariff threats creating daily volatility. The combination of $2.5 trillion deficits, Fed balance sheet expansion, and government interference in markets has Gary warning "they're taking over" and it will end badly for retail investors who chase these no-revenue stocks.
💡 GARY'S KEY FRUSTRATIONS TODAY
1. Government Positions in Private Companies
"I don't want the government taking positions in companies. I don't want them doing that."
2. $2.5 Trillion Deficit
Running rate for this year - blames both Biden (got it to $2T) and Trump (had chance to roll back, didn't)
3. Fed Balance Sheet Expansion
Stopping the roll-off = reprinting money = more bubbles = worse crash later
4. Obvious Insider Trading
Volume picking up in stocks before government announcements, no investigations
5. Trump's "Omnipotence" Concern
After hostage deal success, worried Trump thinks "you can do no wrong" - "that's when you're most vulnerable"
📊 THE BIG PICTURE
Gary's Bottom Line:
- Fed creating more bubbles with reprinting
- Government pumping no-sales stocks that will crash
- Daily tariff threats creating volatility
- Insider trading obvious but ignored
- "Somebody is going to have their arse" when these stocks crash
Current Market Status:
- Major indices near highs despite chaos
- Rate-sensitive sectors bouncing on Fed news
- Semiconductors vulnerable to China tensions
- Speculation extreme in government-backed themes
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