Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Market Falls

Well, it finally happened. All those low volume up days finally caught up with us. Got hit by a big volume down day!

Bottom line, we just started the second leg of the bear market. Take time and notice the last 6 weeks, it was the S&P and DOW biding time. The S&P came up and hit the 50dma and then broke down.

Every commodity was in new low ground. A very brutal sell off into the close. EVERYTHING IS NOT OK!

This leg of the bear market is of unknown price and proportion.

I got caught up in this action thinking, you can't fight the fed. My lesson learned, the market can fight the fed!

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Beware of the Bear Market Rally

Today started off looking like a great day, but they the end of the day, it was almost like you could hear the bear sneaking up for an attack. However, we have so many news driven items going on in the world right now, it makes the stock market a very dangerous place to be.

Since we cannot control what happens in Greece or what the Fed will do tomorrow with Operation Chubby Checkers (ok ok, Operation Twist), we can at least peer into what the market is telling us right now.

We had some very impressive selling coming into the close today beginning with the same index that began the latest leg up, the NASDAQ. Take a look at $PCLN. It closed $15 off it's high for today, $APPL closed $9 off it's high, and the list goes on and on. This is not a good sign for the market.

During bear markets, indexes rally up to the 50dma line and FAIL. We may be pushing up to that 50dma line and getting ready to give it up once again. However, keep in mind, we have no idea what tools Bernanke will pull out of his bag tomorrow. It must be a good one because he had Alan Greenspan to attend the FOMC meeting today. And also, let's not forget about the Presidents Working Council on Markets (also known as the plunger team), they could get involved also.

For now, I have 2 stocks are looking like they are shortable. They both fell hard on high volume today. $CF and $TNH. Both appear to be breaking down and ready to give it up.. and it's a long way down!

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Market Wonders

With all of the bad news that came out today, we are left to wonder why did the market perform so well today. I believe the answer can be found in the Gold trade. I believe the the market power today came from people exiting their Gold positions and moving their money back to risk (stocks). Let's review todays market news:
  • Bad Manufacturing Number
  • Bad Housing Number
  • Earthquake on the East Coast
We had a major transition out of safety (Gold) into risk! Otherwise, the market seems as if it would have gone down, but we cannot argue with Mr. Market.

Now we just have to see if this holds...

By the way, Japan just got downgraded. We'll see what this does for stocks in the morning!

Wednesday, June 8, 2011