Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis
Last Updated: October 24, 2025 (Friday)
📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2025 - BANK REGULATIONS RELAXED, BULLS REJOICE
Market Action - Goldman Drives Dow
- Dow: Up significant (Goldman +$33 = 215 Dow points!)
- NASDAQ: Up
- S&P: Up
- Semiconductors: Strong
The Big Story: Administration announced relaxing banking regulations and capital requirements
💰 GOLDMAN SACHS = 215 DOW POINTS
Gary's Math Lesson:
- Goldman up $33 today = 4.4% = 215 Dow points
- If Coca-Cola (at ~$70) went up same 4.4% = only 20 Dow points
- Why? "Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow"
- Verizon at $39 → Zero would = 260 Dow points
- Goldman at $780 → Zero would = 5,000 Dow points
Gary: "You got to be very careful when we measure the Dow. We recognize that it's stupid. How do you have a Verizon at $39 and Goldman Sachs at $780? Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow points than a Verizon."
🏦 BANKS RALLY ON REGULATION NEWS
The Announcement
Administration relaxing:
- Banking regulations
- Capital requirements
Bank Reactions
Goldman Sachs: +$33 (4.4%) - 215 Dow points
JP Morgan: +$5.90 (2%) - Still significant
Morgan Stanley: Not bad
Wells Fargo: Not bad
Bank of America & Citigroup: "Kind of, sort of"
Regional Banks: "A little bit better too" but have been weak
Gary's Take: "Didn't have really good reactions in JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs [on earnings], but the reactions in others better."
🚨 GARY'S FRUSTRATION - GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE
Argentine Beef Deal - "Make Argentina Great"
Representative Mark Alford (R-Missouri) publicly broke with Trump:
- Administration allowing 4x current amount of Argentine beef imports
- At reduced tariffs
- Alford: This "betrays American ranchers"
Gary's Reaction:
"All of a sudden, MAGA is make Argentina great. And that's not a reach on just this subject. The reason the president is doing this is because Argentina's got some problems. And he loves this guy, Millet, who runs Argentina. But what does that do? It hurts the ranchers here. It undercuts them completely."
"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef?"
Government Taking Crypto Mining Positions
Latest announcement about government getting involved in crypto mining
Gary: "Don't worry that his family is net-deep involved with the mining of crypto."
Government Taking Quantum Positions
"Announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies."
Gary's Core Message:
"We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites. If this was a lefty, you'd be pissed off that government is getting their hands in all kinds of private industry and names and some other names of no-sales."
💥 JAY POWELL REPRINTING MONEY
The Fed Announcement
Fed will STOP letting bonds roll off balance sheet
- Had been reducing from $9 trillion down to ~$7 trillion (fake money)
- NOW: Will start buying bonds again = Reprinting money
Gary's Explanation:
"They printed to $9 trillion. Took that conjured up money, not real money, and bought up the whole frickin' bond market, taking the 10-year yield down to a half percent. Bought bonds with fake money. Which created the 3% mortgage, which created all the distortions in housing."
"They've been doing the right thing by letting it run off. So in other words, oh, here's today. They're not going to let it roll off anymore, which means he's going to take that money, fake money, conjured up money, and reprint."
Market Reaction to Fed News
- 10-year yield dropped
- Market rallied (easier money = good for Wall Street)
- Housing, travel, financials did better
Gary's Warning:
"The market's at or near the highs and he's reprinting money, which is going to create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even that worse when all's said and done."
"Jay Powell, again, another person with how did you get this type of power, is now going to stop the roll-off because he says blah, blah, blah, blah, blah is making him do it."
🟢 LEADING SECTORS
Banks - Regulation Relief
- Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BofA, Citi all up
- Regional banks better (but still weak overall)
Rate-Sensitive Sectors (Fed Reprinting)
- Housing: Better with 10-year yield down
- Travel: Better
- Financials: Generally better
Semiconductors
- Continuing strength
🔴 LAGGING SECTORS
Agriculture/Ranching
- Argentine beef deal undercuts US ranchers
- Tariff hypocrisy
🚀 LEADING STOCKS
Goldman Sachs
+$33 = 215 Dow points (drove the Dow)
JP Morgan
+$5.90
Other Big Banks
Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo up on regulation news
📉 LAGGING STOCKS
Not specifically mentioned this show - focus was on bank rally and Fed policy
💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING
Watching: Government interference increasing across multiple fronts
Concerned About:
- $2.5 trillion deficit spending
- Fed reprinting money (creating bigger bubbles)
- Government positions in private companies
- Tariff inconsistencies (Argentina example)
- Family conflicts of interest (crypto)
🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK
Gary is increasingly alarmed that Fed reprinting money at market highs will "create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done." The combination of $2.5 trillion deficits, Fed balance sheet expansion after briefly contracting, and government taking positions in private companies (crypto mining, quantum, no-sales stocks) while family members benefit creates a dangerous setup. The banking regulation relief is positive short-term but doesn't address the structural issues. Gary sees Jay Powell as someone who "caused the inflation" with original $9 trillion printing, created "3% mortgages and distortions in housing," and now is reprinting at market highs which historically ends badly.
💡 GARY'S KEY FRUSTRATIONS
On Government Overreach
"There's not a day that goes by because I'm not done. Today, the latest. We're not even sure, but announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies. So just letting you know. We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites."
On Tariff Hypocrisy
"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef? That's because he wants more to come in here. That means there'll be less to pay here for that, which screws the farmers here."
On Fed Printing
"Taking over. Where did all these people get to the point where somebody can print the $9 trillion, where a government can run $2 trillion deficits, $1.2 trillion to interest."
On Healthcare (Obamacare)
"Obamacare premiums will be rising an average of 30% just next year. Barack Obama, who got the Nobel Peace Prize just as he got into the White House, was treated with kid gloves and just another great liar from the White House."
"If it was the Affordable Care Act, why do you need subsidies? Because they lied. They're liars."
On NYC Mayor Race
Hakeem Jeffries endorsing candidate Gary calls "a racist, Jew-hating, anti-Semitic, Israel-hating dolt" who "thinks he's smart enough to run supermarkets in New York City, and control prices of housing there, and thinks buses should be free."
📊 THE BIG PICTURE
Gary's Core Message: "So there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. Obamacare premiums next year, 30% higher. We hope it works out."
Federal Register Pages (Government Regulations):
- 2024: 107,262 pages
- Gary: "Proposed and final rules, public notices, executive orders, proclamations. You think we're overly regulated? Our forefathers are turning over the grave."
US Debt: $38 trillion
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