Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 17, 2025 (Friday)

📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2025 - "THE WACKY WEEK IN REVIEW"

Market Action - Up for the Week

Dow: +238 to close
S&P 500: +35 to close
NASDAQ: +117 to close
NASDAQ 100: +160 to close

Week was up because last Friday got trashed on tariff talk, then gapped up Monday

Tariff Drama Again

Overnight: Futures down 400 on Dow

Trump Interview: Asked about 100% China tariff starting Nov 1st - He said "No" (pulled it)

Gary's Reaction:

"I loathe the president using threatened massive tax policy and then pulls it off and puts it on and pulls it off and puts it on. I'm just hoping he doesn't crash the market one day with it. He did it once."

🚨 MAJOR WARNING: More New LOWS Than HIGHS

The Numbers Today

NASDAQ:

54 new yearly highs
126 new yearly lows

NYSE: More new yearly lows than yearly highs

Gary: "That is weird, ladies and gentlemen. Very weird."

Market Concentration Hiding Weakness:

Apple: +$5
NVIDIA: +$1.50
Microsoft: +$2
Gary: "You get five names up and 20 names down, the market will still be up nicely because of those just five names"

💥 BITCOIN/CRYPTO BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin Broke 50-Day MA Monday, Straight Down All Week

Now trading below December 2024 highs
IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): $61.75 last Dec → $60.47 today
About 15% below recent highs

MicroStrategy: $457 → $289 since July (Gary warned about this)

Ethereum: Also avoid

Gary's Warning:

"The last bear market watched it go down 75% and the touters say it could never go into a bear market again. No sales, no revenues, no earnings, no product, no services. Just letting you know. Be careful."

📉 MORE NAMES BREAKING DOWN - "FINDING MORE ICK"

Recent Leaders Rolling Over

Oracle (ORCL):

Wednesday: Screamed up $305→$321 on investor conference
Thursday: Dropped $22
Gary: "No longer on my list of setups to break out"

Goldman Sachs: Trading below 50-day MA after earnings

JP Morgan: Trading below 50-day MA after earnings

Uber: Back below 50-day MA (down 9-10% from highs)

AI Names Getting Crushed:

Astralabs (ALAB): "Go check what they did to this stock this week"
Kruppel: "Gone. History, out of here."
CRDO (Credo): Down Tuesday, jumped back today

Gary's Definition: "Breaking support and/or moving averages. We're finding more names just going bye-bye."

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Regional Banks - Credit Concerns Continue

ZION (Zion's): Got upgraded today AFTER getting smashed yesterday (bearish)

KRE (Regional Bank ETF): Bearish pattern

Credit Worry: Private equity companies in bear markets and worsening. Regional banks talking about "credit and potentially fraud on credit"

Gary's Warning:

"If anything could get the markets, it's one of those credit blowups. We're predicting nothing. We're just interpreting for you that a lot of names in those areas acting troublesome, with some getting smoked."

Consumer Staples - "Dead Money"

Food, beverage, tobacco, household products: All green today (defensive bounce) but in bear markets

Especially alcohol stocks

Best Looking: Ecolab (cleaning/sanitizing for hotels/restaurants)

Insurance - Still Bearish

Progressive: $289→$220, up $4 today (anemic bounce)

Gary: "Regardless that insurance bounced today, it's an avoid."

Restaurants

"Maybe a couple may be bottoming. Not sure yet. But they've been avoids. And I stick with that."

Other Weak Areas (From Earlier This Week)

Exchanges
Payroll companies
Waste management
Airlines, cruise lines, hotels
Private equity names

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductors - Still Strong Despite Down Day

Down today but "remain pretty darn strong"
Were much worse early, finished down only a little

American Express - Big Winner

19% earnings growth, 9% sales growth
Market loved it
"About 150 down points to the better" (big contributor to Dow +238)

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Mega Cap Tech - Holding Market Up

Apple: +$5 today
NVIDIA: +$1.50 today
Microsoft: +$2 today

American Express

Big earnings beat, strong reaction

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

IPOs Crashing to New Yearly Lows

Chime Financial: $27 IPO, opened $45 → Now $17

GEMI: $28 IPO, opened $46 → Now $19

Firefly: $45 IPO, opened $74 (early August) → Now $26

Klarna: $40 IPO, opened $57 → Now $35

Charter Communications: Cable TV company at new yearly low

Staffing/Consulting at New Lows (AI Impact?)

Manpower: Staffing, new yearly low

Robert Half: Staffing, $78→$31, new yearly low

Booz Allen: Consulting, new yearly low

Other New Yearly Lows

Helen of Troy (hair dryers)
Weyerhaeuser (timber)
CarMax (auto sales)
Boise Cascade (wood products): $155→$71
Brown and Brown (insurance brokers)

Bitcoin/Crypto

Bitcoin below December 2024 highs
MicroStrategy: $457→$289 since July
Ethereum weak

Failed Breakouts

Oracle: Yesterday's surge reversed
Goldman Sachs: Below 50-day MA
JP Morgan: Below 50-day MA
Uber: Below 50-day MA

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Gold: Thought top was in last Thursday, then had 5 up days in a row. Finally down today. Not calling top anymore after being wrong.

Focus: Watching for more names breaking support/moving averages

Avoiding:

Bitcoin/crypto
Regional banks
Consumer staples
Insurance
Restaurants (mostly)
IPOs that opened hot

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is increasingly concerned about deteriorating market internals despite indices holding up. More names are breaking down, more new yearly lows than highs despite indices being up, and credit concerns are emerging in regional banks and private equity. The Big 7 tech stocks are masking significant weakness underneath. Critical support levels: NASDAQ 22,109, S&P 6,564, Dow 45,725 - if these break, it's trouble. Gary warns if Trump actually implements 100% tariffs instead of just threatening them, "all hell will break loose." For now, as long as Big 7 hold and indices stay above 50-day MAs, market continues higher, but "finding more and more ICK" underneath.

📊 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH

If these break, big trouble:

NASDAQ: 22,109
S&P 500: 6,564
Dow: 45,725

Gary: "We're okay. Notwithstanding some ICK underneath the surface. And notwithstanding the president."

💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

Market Breadth Deteriorating

"There are more new yearly lows in the market than new yearly highs today. With the Dow up 238, the S&P up 35, NASDAQ up 117, NASDAQ 100 up 160. Do I have to repeat that?"

More Names Breaking Down

"We started with the crypto. When you go do your scans, anything breaking below the 50 day trouble, anything breaking support, and we're watching for the group moves also."

"We're finding more names that were in shape, now going into downtrends. Breaking support and or moving averages."

The 50-Day Moving Average Rule

"As long as they trade below the 50-day moving average, they're out of play. They cannot ascent until they get back above it. Simple as that."

Credit Concerns Building

"There is worry about credit on Wall Street. A lot of what we call these private equity buyout type companies are in bear markets. And they have been worsening."

Big Indices Still Okay... For Now

"The big indices continue, remain above the vitally all-important 50-day moving average. They have teased trouble in the last few days. They have held so far."

"If the big indices break the 50-day moving average, along with deteriorating amount of names and internals, you will be hearing from us."

Sunday, October 19, 2025

THE WACKY WEEK IN REVIEW