📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

📅 Friday, October 31, 2025 🎃

"LOOK OUT BELOW" - 167 New Lows as NASDAQ Up 9,000 Points

Market Action

Dow: +40 points (dropped 150 points in last 5 minutes)
NASDAQ: +143 points (dropped 100 points in last 5 minutes)
NASDAQ Close: 23,724 (1% off Wednesday's all-time high of 24,019)
Rough close but "not a biggie"

THE STUNNING INTERNAL DISASTER:

NASDAQ up 9,000 points from April crash lows (14,784 → 23,724)
BUT: 167 new yearly lows vs only 116 new yearly highs TODAY
Translation: 167 stocks are BELOW their April crash lows while NASDAQ up 9,000!
Only 50 new highs if you exclude non-operating companies
NYSE also had more new lows than new highs (closed 21,400 vs 16,800 crash low)

RECORD CONCENTRATION (Gary's Bombshell Math):

NASDAQ 100: 8 stocks = 70%, 92 stocks = 30%
S&P 500: 8 stocks = 40%, 492 stocks = 60%
Gary's Example: "If 492 stocks down 10% each, but 8 stocks up 12%, index would be FLAT"

Leading Sectors 🟢

Tech/AI/Semis - Still leading but "one note" market
Solar - First Solar +$33 (14%)
Data Centers - Still working

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Everything Else - 167 stocks at new yearly lows below April crash
All sectors Gary's been warning about - Still in bear markets

Leading Stocks 🚀

Twilio - +$22 (20%) on earnings
CloudFlare (NET) - +14%
Amazon - Opened +$30, closed +$21 (distributed)
First Solar - +$33 (14%)
Netflix - +$30 on 10-for-1 split announcement (Gary warns: be careful!)

Lagging Stocks 📉

Big Name Breakdowns:

Microsoft - -$9, "avoid on new money"
Meta - -$18 after big gap down yesterday, breaking 6-month support, back to December levels
Apple - Gapped up on earnings, finished DOWN (distribution)
SAP - Broke 50-day, avoid
Oracle - Broke 50-day, avoid
Salesforce - Bearish trend, avoid
Adobe - Bearish trend, avoid
Costco - Bearish trend, avoid

Crypto:

Bitcoin - "Just above last November" = 11 months of NO GAINS despite "$1M, $5M, $10M" hype
IBIT - "If it takes out last two weeks, run for the hills"
Ethereum/Crypto - Avoid on new money

Gary's Positioning 💰

Amazon: Not buying the gap yet - "I'm not yet"
Apple: Not chasing after gap & fade
Meta/Microsoft: Complete avoids
Bitcoin/Crypto: Avoid on new money
Staying Large Cap/Mega Cap/Tech: "That's where money's been flowing"
Watching 50-day moving averages like a hawk

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary's Most Explicit Warning Yet: "When - not IF - technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, data storage go into a bear market, and that money does NOT flow big time into that other rest of the market... LOOK OUT BELOW." He emphasizes "When? Two years from now? Six months from now? It's not next week." The internals are "not very good" with 167 stocks at new yearly lows while NASDAQ up 9,000 points from April. First shot across the bow: indices breaking 50-day MA (hasn't happened since April confirmation day).

Key Observations 💡

Hindenburg Omen: People emailing about it appearing - Gary acknowledges but says "market will decide"
Government Shutdown Disaster: Gary's 8.5-hour flight delay nightmare, air traffic controllers not paid, staffing crisis
"They All Suck": Republicans and Marxist Party brought us to $38 trillion debt, can't agree to reopen government
Netflix Split Warning: 10-for-1 announced (+$30 today), but Gary warns: "Be careful buying splits" - Chipotle did 50-for-1 June '24, stock 69→31 since
50-Day Cushion: S&P 3% above (6840 vs 6640), NASDAQ 5% above (23,724 vs 22,485) - "plenty of room"
Concentration Math: If index can be flat with 492 stocks down 10% but 8 up 12%, that's unsustainable
Bitcoin Hype Cycle: Investment banks called it "dog crap" at 2022 bottom, now "we should adopt it" - Gary: "Fear and greed, they'll turn tail again on 50% drop"

BamaTrades

Friday, October 31, 2025

LOOK OUT BELOW" - 167 New Lows as NASDAQ Up 9,000 Points