📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"
Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning
📅 Wednesday, December 10, 2025 - FED DAY
"THEY BETTER KEEP THE AI TRADE GOING" - Post-Fed Rally in Rate-Sensitive Sectors
Market Action
- Strong day for rate-sensitive sectors (Fed cut rates)
- S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100: Did NOT finish at new highs, "weakened a little bit at close, but not a biggie"
- Russell 2000: Edged out of range at close
- Mid-Caps (S&P 400): Edged out of range at close (not at highs yet though, "still got work to do")
- Regional Banks: Almost at yearly high, some individual regionals AT yearly highs
- KBW Bank Index: NEW HIGH
- NASDAQ Bank Index: NEW HIGH
Fed Decision & Gary's Explanation
The Fed:
- Cut rates (as expected)
- Gary: "Fed funds, really not much"
- "The 10-year yield is your mortgages. The Fed funds, we can go back to, maybe it moves the credit card rates around"
- "Your money markets are going to get less, duh"
Gary's Powell Rant: "Just remember, you were getting zero on your money markets when he took rates to zero. He screwed every saver. Jay Powell screwed the savers and handed all that money to the banks and lenders. And he never got any blowback from that."
"One of the most sickening moves financially I've ever seen, he got no blowback on it because they had to just blame Biden for everything."
Why Markets Rallied: "The perception is this should help the economy."
Leading Sectors 🟢 POST-FED WINNERS
- Transports - Strong (0.35% transports mentioned)
- Housing Stocks - Strong ("If you can take interest rates down, duh, it's interest rate sensitive")
- Regional Banks - "Whoa" + other banks, financials strong
- Economically Sensitive - "Woke up"
- Hotels - Bounced (just got hit)
- Cruise Lines - Bounced (been very weak)
- Auto Dealers - Bounced (stocks been very weak)
- Some Retail - Good day, not all
Gary's Summary: "Good day in the financials. Good day in the economically sensitive. Good day in the nice bounce in the housing. Good day in the transports, moving of things. Because the perception is this should help the economy. Good day in the auto deals, with stocks that have been very weak."
Lagging Sectors 🔴
PAYROLL COMPANIES - Still weak
- Paychecks: Up only 14 cents
- Gary: "That's to be watched"
Leading Stocks 🚀
ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE - "WOKE UP":
- United Rentals: Up 3% (has been "blasted on their earnings")
- WW Granger: Up 3%+
- Caterpillar: Up $20
BANKS:
- Regional banks: Almost yearly highs, some AT yearly highs
- KBW Bank Index, NASDAQ Bank Index: New highs
RETAIL:
- Abercrombie & Fitch: Up 6% (good reaction recently)
- Dillard's: Up nicely (doesn't trade a lot)
- Cracker Barrel: Up 95 cents (after being down $3 aftermarket yesterday on crappy numbers)
- Gary: "That's just the market being a little bit better on the day"
WARBY PARKER (WRBY) - THE AI MANIA EXAMPLE 🤯
- Stock crushed recently on earnings/outlook
- Day and a half ago: Announced "AI glasses"
- Up 45% in two days
AIG: Rumors of being bought by Chubb
Lagging Stocks 📉
MICROSOFT & META - Both Fading at 50-Day
- Gary: "I got asked, what's the matter with Microsoft? It's a weak stock. I got asked, what's the matter with Meta? It's a weak stock."
- "Both faded at the 50-day moving average"
DOORDASH & INSTACART - Got Hit Today
- Amazon announced expanding perishables selling to 2,200 cities
- Gary: "So guess what happened to DoorDash and Instacart today? Not good."
- Note: DoorDash had big insider buy recently
ORACLE (ORCL) - The Disappointment Continues
- Beat earnings, stock still down $16 to $220
- Stock went from ~$350 to $200 after announcing "monstrous backlog"
- The worry: The debt
- The backlog: From OpenAI company
- Gary: "You know which company that was? Where the CEO was interviewed by an investor, and was simply asked, how are you going to be able to do $1.2 trillion in business when you only have $10 billion? And the guy said, well, just sell me your stock."
- "We'll see how that plays out"
NVIDIA - CANNOT GET UP 🚨
- Finished down $3 on strong market day
- This is AFTER China news (allowed to sell to China, "billions")
- "Stock can't get out of its own way"
- Below 50-day moving average
- Gary's Theory: "I'm wondering if they're starting to put a little discount into the stock because Alibaba announced the chip. Google's got some things. A bunch of others have things going on right now for a very lucrative business."
- Competition emerging in AI chips
- Gary: "If Nvidia remains below the 50-day moving average, we'll keep you informed. First thing it's got to do is get back above."
HOSPITALS - "Topped out. No biggie."
AUTOZONE - Down another $75 today - "Yikes"
MEGA-CAP WEAK:
- Costco: "Continues to be really weak"
- Netflix: "Brutally weak"
Gary's Positioning 💰
No specific positioning mentioned today
The Big Picture 🎯
"THEY BETTER KEEP THE AI TRADE GOING"
Gary's Blanket Statement: "They better keep the AI trade going. How's that for a blanket statement? It's so much of the market now. I cannot begin to tell you. It is so much of the market now."
Warby Parker AI Glasses - Gary's Confusion: "So what? Artificial intelligence glasses should add a billion dollars of market cap to the company? That by the way, does less than a billion dollars in revenue?"
"What can you do with your glasses and artificial intelligence? Somebody's got to help me out with that. Seriously, are we going to get the artificial intelligence swapper? Or McMuffin?"
"By the way, I'm not being sarcastic. I guess maybe I'm the dumb one because the market loves this news. Just letting you know. The market really loves this news. We'll see how it plays out."
NVIDIA Competition Emerging: "Think about this this week. You had a strong market today and Nvidia finished down $3. And this is after a day and a half ago was announced the China thing. That's going to be able to sell this thing to China and it's going to add billions. And the stock can't get out of its own way."
"And you know what I'm wondering? Not sure yet. But I'm wondering, A, the huge market cap. But B, in this great system of ours, if you have a big part of the business and others say, you know, I think I can do it faster, quicker, better, and cheaper. And then some come out with that."
"I'm wondering if they're starting to put a little discount into the stock because Alibaba announced the chip. Google's got some things. A bunch of others have things going on right now for a very lucrative business."
Oracle/OpenAI Reality Check: "By the way, here's a blanket statement. They better keep the AI trade going. How's that for a blanket statement? It's so much of the market now. I cannot begin to tell you."
"You know what that backlog is from? That open AI company. You know which company that was? Where the CEO was interviewed by an investor, and was simply asked, how are you going to be able to do $1.2 trillion in business when you only have $10 billion? And the guy said, well, just sell me your stock."
Beazley Broadcasting (BEAZ) - GameStopped! 🎮
The Insane Move:
- Radio station, couple hundred million revenues
- Never trades - average day: couple thousand shares
- Before today: Closed at $4
- Today: Hit $26, closed $16, now $12 aftermarket
- Float: 700,000 shares
- Today's volume: 44.8 million shares (64x the float!)
Gary's Assessment: "I'm wondering if this got game stocked today." [meaning: pumped up like GameStop was by retail traders]
"Whether somebody said something and read it and they jumped on it."
"You know what my advice is, right? Make sure you're never the last one in. They all go back to where they came from."
"I don't know what drove the stock today. I see no news. And I look on several news fronts. I'm sure we'll find out. It hit the sheets or the webs and they got involved and ended up being some sort of, again, game stock, AMC and things like that." [GameStop, AMC - the meme stock phenomenon]
"At 2.35, it hit $26. At 4 o'clock, it was $16 and change, and now it's $12 in the aftermarket. You know how you get the $26? Somebody had to pay that."
"Don't ever get caught in that stuff. Keep your head about you. It's painful if you're the last one in."
Key Observations 💡
The Fed's Real Impact: "The Fed funds, really not much. The 10-year yield is your mortgages. The Fed funds, we can go back to, maybe it moves the credit card rates around."
"I'll tell you what it will do, your money markets are going to get less, duh. Just remember, you were getting zero on your money markets when he took rates to zero."
Powell Screwed Savers: "Jay Powell screwed the savers and handed all that money to the banks and lenders. And he never got any blowback from that. One of the most sickening moves financially I've ever seen, he got no blowback on it because they had to just blame Biden for everything."
Perception vs Reality: "The perception is this should help the economy." (Why rate-sensitive sectors rallied)
Why Markets Rally on Fed Cuts: "Why would that be? Well, if you can spur things on, even the perception moves markets. So that's the story today."
Payroll Companies = Job Market Warning: "You know what didn't have a good day still? The job markets. The payroll companies, paychecks was up 14 cents. That's to be watched."
Amazon Competition: "Amazon has announced that they are going to expand selling perishables to 2,200 cities. So guess what happened to DoorDash and Instacart today? Not good."
NVIDIA Can't Rise: "Think about this this week. You had a strong market today and Nvidia finished down $3. And this is after a day and a half ago was announced the China thing... And the stock can't get out of its own way."
50-Day Moving Average: "If Nvidia remains below the 50-day moving average, we'll keep you informed. First thing it's got to do is get back above."
Microsoft & Meta: "I got asked, what's the matter with Microsoft? It's a weak stock. I got asked, what's the matter with Meta? It's a weak stock. Both faded at the 50-day moving average."
AI Hype Gone Wild: "Warby Parker... announced AI glasses, up 45% in two days. And I'm just thinking to myself, so what?"
"What can you do with your glasses and artificial intelligence? Somebody's got to help me out with that. Seriously, are we going to get the artificial intelligence swapper? Or McMuffin?"
"I guess maybe I'm the dumb one because the market loves this news."
Game Stock Warning: "You know what my advice is, right? Make sure you're never the last one in. They all go back to where they came from."
"You know how you get the $26? Somebody had to pay that. Don't ever get caught in that stuff. Keep your head about you. It's painful if you're the last one in."
Market Breadth: "At the close today, at the close, the Russell 2000 edged out of range. At the close today, the mid-caps edged out of range. Not at the highs though yet. Still got work to do."
"At the close today, the regional banks, almost a yearly high. Individually, some regional banks at yearly highs. At the close today, the KBW Bank Index, NASDAQ Bank Index, new high."
"The S&P did not finish at a new high today. The Dow did not finish at a new high today. The NASDAQ 100 and the NASDAQ did not finish at new highs today. And weakened a little bit at the close, but not a biggie."
What's Next: "We'll see what tomorrow brings."
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