"ICE IS GETTING THINNER" - Oracle Debt Crisis Spreads, AI Carnage

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

---

📅 Wednesday, December 17, 2025

"ICE IS GETTING THINNER" - Oracle Debt Crisis Spreads, AI Carnage

Market Action

• Dow: -228 (-0.46%), S&P: -1.1%, NASDAQ: -1.81%, NASDAQ 100: -1.85%, SOX: -3.78%
• "Brutal day for the growth arena in every way, shape, or form"
• Gary: "Ice is getting thinner, especially tech"

Oracle Blue Owl Crisis 🚨

THE BREAKING NEWS:

• Blue Owl backed away from $10B data center deal with Oracle
• Oracle claims they "chose to go with someone different"
• Blackstone stepped in BUT "market is perceiving Blue Owl's hesitancy as sign of concern over Oracle's debt"

THE DEBT PROBLEM:

• $127 billion total debt
• $25 billion due within 3 years
• Only $13B cash flow last year
• Won't get back to positive free cash flow until 2028
• Credit default swaps up 200% in past few months
• Needs $500 billion in revenue to pay back debt
• Bond market "hedging aggressively on if Oracle can't pay back the debt"

THE CONTAGION: "As a result, any data center play now falls within the same bucket. The market thinks they're all over-leveraged, can't pay back the debt, may not get a return on investments on their CapEx, don't deserve a premium."

Leading Sectors 🟢

• Hotels: "Look like they're gonna break out"
• Cruise lines: Acting okay
• Transports: Most acting okay
• Steel: Acting okay
• Silver: "Insane"
• Gold, platinum (new yearly high), palladium
• Coal, metals/mining
• Banks: "No real problem", regionals "not bad"
• Insurance: "Much better"
• Oils: Bounced today (got hit hard yesterday)

Lagging Sectors/Stocks 📉

AI/TECH CARNAGE:

• Oracle: -$10 to $178 (topped $345)
• GEV: -$72 to $614
• FIX: -$85 to $883
• IESC: -$50
• Broadcom: -$15 today (down $80 since earnings 4 days ago)
• ASML: -$60 (6% down)
• AMD: -$10 (5% down)
• Caterpillar: -$27 (4.5%)
• Tesla: -$21 (4%, broke out yesterday!)
• CrowdStrike: -$18
• Palantir: -6%
• Microsoft, NVIDIA: Getting hit

NO-SALES FROTH:

• "They're being really coming after the froth"
• "A lot of them are down $50 to $70"
• "We told you they were all gonna go back where they came from"

CRYPTO: "Not a good day. Early in the day they rammed crypto to the upside, they sold it right back down"

NVIDIA: "On the ledge... You do not want it to break down from right here... one icky, ugly pattern that is losing relative strength"

After-Hours

MICRON (MU):

• Beat earnings, guidance "really strong"
• Closed $225.71 (-$7), up ~$13 aftermarket to ~$240 (recent high $265)
• Gary: "I have no idea what happens tomorrow, but that can help"
• Later in show: Drew back $7, "only about 3.5%" up
• Gary: "Micron is really tied to something called DRAM prices. And they've gone vertical, and I can promise you, they ain't gonna stay vertical"

Gary's Positioning

• Owns ZERO individual technology stocks
• "They're being slaughtered now. You have some very important names in bear markets, some brutal bear markets. They are a void."

Gary's Key Points

Oracle Contagion: "These fears may be misplaced, but it seems to be driving the AI sell-off today. And it's not just today. It's not just today."

CoreWeave Example: "I saw somebody on TV today. This person has been bullish on CoreWeave from $187 to $65. I quote: 'Investors just don't understand.' Did you hear that? That is what is known in my world as denial of facts."

Pattern Recognition: "It's not the news. It's how the market acts on the news and reacts to the news, and it is pattern recognition and outcome."

January Warning: "May I state for the record, January can get very interesting."

Big Cap Losses: "Let me just state for the record. Ew! Ew. ASML 6%, Palantir 6%, Oracle 5%, AMD 5%, Tesla 4%, Caterpillar 4.5%. Ew! And those are big caps. A lot of smaller caps in the teeth."

Money Flowing: "Money definitely flowed... But this is a continuation of what we've been seeing."

Defense Bill: "Senate passed a $900 billion defense bill today... In the year 2000, I think we spent $300 billion on defense."

Warning Shot: "My message to you is what we have said to you. We own no individual technology stocks, and they're being slaughtered now... A warning shot from me to you is be careful of what you hear."

Tesla: "Remember Tesla broke out yesterday? I was down $21 today. And do you know why? They just kicked the teeth of the higher beta stocks today, and Tesla being one of them."

Market Continues: "In many areas of the market, ice is getting thinner, especially tech, but money has been flowing elsewhere."