"BUYERS GOT THE UPPER HAND" - No-Sales Froth Wakes Up After 50% Crashes

 

📅 Wednesday, December 4, 2025

"BUYERS GOT THE UPPER HAND" - No-Sales Froth Wakes Up After 50% Crashes

Market Action

• Dow: Down 31
• S&P: Flat
• NASDAQ: Up 50 (ramped into close, closed above 50-day)
• NASDAQ 100: Down 25
• "A hell of a lot of Jell-O moving on the plate"

Gary's Assessment: "The indices did not do much today. But a hell of a lot of Jell-O moving on the plate and we hope you are listening."

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. No-Sales Froth - WOKE UP LIKE A PINBALL MACHINE 🚨
   • Nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones, space
   • Many up 15-25% today
   • Gary: "After this crash, there is a good chance, a decent chance that they put in a bottom today"
2. Big Banks - Continuing breakouts from yesterday
   • JPMorgan "even woke up" (was lagging)
   • Bank of New York, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo
   • "Either at new highs or very close"
3. Regional Banks - "Actually have a better bid now"
4. Data Centers/Storage - "Kind of woke up today"
   • Data storage, data center types
   • Electronics, electronic contractors
   • Energy for data centers
   • Construction for data centers
   • "Been in corrective mode for weeks and weeks"
5. Small Caps & Mid Caps - "Near old highs again"
   • Russell 2000 and S&P 400
   • "Couple Thursdays ago looked like south end of northbound jackass, just V-shaped up"

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Nothing specific - indices flat/slightly down

Leading Stocks 🚀

No-Sales Companies - MASSIVE BOUNCES:

Nuclear (The Poster Child):

• OKLO (Gary doesn't name it but describes it): 194 → 79 (5 weeks), up 15% today to $111
  • At highs: $25 billion market cap (no sales)
  • Today close: $17 billion market cap
  • Gary: "This is what we mean by waking up"

Quantum:

• One name: 58 → 22, up 15% today
• Another: 84 → 40, up 12.5% today ($21 billion market cap, no sales)
• Another: 47 → 20, up 14% today ($10 billion market cap, "very little sales")

Rare Earth:

• One name: 44 → 12, up 24-25% today to $17.50 ($1.4 billion market cap, no sales)
  • Why? Administration announced "may be taking positions in these rare earth"

Data Center/Storage Stocks:

• LITE (Lumentum) - NEW HIGH today (Gary doesn't own it: "Unfortunately")
• SanDisk - Up $18 (went 180→284→180 in 3 weeks, now bouncing)
• CLS - Up $14
• Celestica (CLS) - Up $14
• FN - Up $24
• HAP - Up $21
• BE - Up $15
• GEV, CEG - "Coming around again" (energy/power for data centers)

Big Banks:

• JPMorgan - Woke up (was lagging)
• All others continuing strength from yesterday

Lagging Stocks 📉

MicroStrategy (MSTR) - THE DISASTER:

• Raised $1.44 billion via stock sale to meet debt interest and dividend payments
• Stock: 543 (all-time high) → 457 (July) → 155 (4 days ago) → 171 → 186 (today)
• Down 66% from highs
• Gary: "A stock sale to meet dividends and debt interest payments. Ladies and gentlemen, that crap reminds me of a lot of 99-2000."
• Bought 130,000 Bitcoin past two weeks
• Now own 650,000 Bitcoin (~$56B value)
• Market cap below Bitcoin holdings - "That's how much the market thinks of them and their leverage"
• Gary: "They should be in prayer mode at this juncture because the last bear market of Bitcoin dropped at 75%. I don't think this company's lasting if that occurs."
• CEO still going on TV "acting like everything is just great"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Doesn't own LITE (wishes he did after it hit new high)
• Happy about big banks
• Watching no-sales bounce carefully

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

NO-SALES FROTH - GARY'S CRITICAL WARNING:

"After all, here's a stock that went from 44 down to about 12. Has no sales, no nothing. And they bought it up today at a $1.4 billion market cap. Are lessons not learned?"

Gary's Proviso (Repeated Multiple Times): "If nothing changes, and these companies still have no sales or very little sales and lose a ton of money, when the music stops and it looks like it may be starting again, they're all going back to where they came from."

"We warned you all the way up. And they all crashed. We didn't know when they would crash. We didn't know which would crash most. But they all crashed. And how do I define a crash? Well, this one with the $25 billion market cap went from $194 down to $79 in 5 weeks and change."

Why People Are Buying Again: "I think what you have is a lot of traders involved. Fast money retail investors. And these things, they move so strong. Think about this. You could have bought one of these stocks yesterday. You have 25% today."

"I think what people see is, wow, look at the moves they had in the past. If this thing can happen again, and they're right. Because if that happens again..." [they can make money]

Gary's Honesty: "I have no clue if it lasts a day, week, month, year. I have no clue whether they skyrocket again or croak tomorrow."

"I can tell you is if nothing changes, there will be that final eventuality which doesn't look like it's here yet."

Why Gary Felt Responsible to Report: "I felt it incumbent upon myself to let you know they woke up that froth today. And just be careful."

"Since we have been reporting this to you all the way up and down, we kept on it and just look like today."

Government Involvement Again: "Unfortunately again, and we're not thrilled by this, the administration may be taking a position in them and blah, blah, blah. The problem is a lot of them have no freaking sales. And if you take a position in a company with no sales, they're going to continue to have no sales."

Market Protection: "I can promise you the market is not going to crash when you have these names [big banks] at new highs or close. Just letting you know."

Small Caps: "A couple of Thursdays ago, they looked like the south end of a northbound jackass and they just V-shaped up with a better market. If they break out to new highs, we will alert you."

Key Observations 💡

The October Crash:

• Mid-October: Nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones, space all crashed 50%+
• Gary warned but didn't predict timing
• Now: "It looks like today, buyers finally got the upper hand after they crashed these things out"
• "I'm pretty good at telling when something is sold out and when buyers have the upper hand"

Data Center Stocks:

• "Been in corrective mode for weeks and weeks and weeks and trading some of them very wide and very loose"
• SanDisk: 180→284→180 in 3 weeks (now bouncing)
• "All of them have either got back above 50-day moving average or held it on the way down"
• LITE new high: "I got news. That's good news. We'll see if it continues."

Warren Buffett Parallel: "There's some people in my industry that love making fun of others, look like they applaud when people lose money. Heck, I still remember in 99, they were making fun of Warren Buffett. I still remember that. Now they're making fun of this guy, the short-seller Michael Burry. They're making fun of him. I got a rule. Don't make fun of billionaires. They obviously did something right."

Costco Sues Trump: "Costco is joining other companies suing the Trump administration over tariffs. They want a full refund should the Supreme Court rule the sweeping duties illegal."

Tariff Truth: "The administration lied to all of you about who pays the tariffs. It's our companies and if the Supreme Court says it's illegal, it looks like some companies are suing."

"Like when he says, well, we're going to use the tax and get rid of the income tax. So what he's saying is the tariffs are a tax. And how many times have they told us the tariffs aren't a tax?"

"Besson was out yesterday saying the tariffs aren't a tax by any other name. And they wonder why they may lose next year's election."

"If I had his ear, I would just say, listen, just tell the truth. It's okay."

Job Market Reality:

• ADP and Paychecks "in brutal bear market"
• "Job market remains weak"
• Manufacturing shrinking
• Layoffs highest since pandemic: 1.1 million this year
• Not creating jobs right now

GDP vs Jobs Paradox: "I'm being asked, how do we have a GDP which is gonna come out soon in the threes when layoffs are at 1.1 million this year and the job market, it's not creating jobs right now. How can that be? The answer is, consumer loves spending. But go look at the numbers on credit cards and buy now, pay later."

"We are really big believers if you have a lasting, rough job market, eventually it's gotta hit. Eventually it's gotta hit."

Tariffs Causing Layoffs: "Tariffs were cited as a driver of a lot of these cuts. Just remember what a tariff is. It is an expense to companies and companies are always gonna act in their best interest. And if they're paying too much in expenses because of tariffs, taxes, they may lop off a few people."

Trump's Golf Courses: "You know what we love about Trump? We tell you what we love about Trump. You know what we don't love about Trump? We tell you that too. And by the way, we really love his golf courses. Top three I've ever played is Scotland, Trump. Top three. I played Turnberry, but he bought that, but he built the one in Northern Scotland."

Trump Tariff/Income Tax Idea: "Yesterday, we discussed how he said he's going to use tariffs and get rid of the income tax. And what did we tell you? Impossible. And I don't know why he even brings it up. There's no chance. You're not going to tax three trillion bucks out of the economy. No, you're not."

"If I had his ear, I can help him out big time. But of course, I don't have his ear. And he probably, even if I told him, wouldn't give a crap what I had to say."

Beyond Meat Vindication: "Like when we told you Beyond Meat would not last in the way, shape or form they were when it first started out. Nobody's eating plants. We're very few. Again, sometimes it's just one plus one equals two."

MicroStrategy Math:

• 650,000 Bitcoin worth ~$56B
• Market cap below $56B
• Selling stock to pay debt interest and dividends
• Gary: "I got news for you. They should be in prayer mode."
• Last Bitcoin bear: dropped 75%
• Gary: "I don't think this company's lasting if that occurs."

Radio Station Changes:

• Phoenix station sold, no longer on there
• Portland station (KBNP) shut down
• "This is what happens in the media world. We keep on chugging along."

Email Rule: "If you'd like to email me, just be nice, respectful. Shouldn't be hard, right? As long as you don't like Hamas, we're good. As long as you don't attack synagogues, we're good. As long as you're not racist, we're good. We like nice people here."