"OKLO: THE POSTER CHILD" - Metals Crash, Crypto Bear Market, No-Sales Carnage

 

"OKLO: THE POSTER CHILD" - Metals Crash, Crypto Bear Market, No-Sales Carnage

Market Action (Mushy Day)

• Dow: -248, S&P: -24, NASDAQ: -118, NASDAQ 100: -118
• Russell/mid-caps: -0.6%
• Advanced declines "not good": 13 up, 32 down on NASDAQ
• CRITICAL: NASDAQ had 262 new yearly lows vs only 63 new yearly highs
• Sold off into the close
• Yields down today, oil prices down (both good)

Gary: "A mushy day. That's the best way I can explain it to you. A mushy day."

Metals CRASH Today 💥

PALLADIUM (PALL):

• Down $25 to $150 (was down $30, -12%)
• Went from $140 to $178 in 8 days (vertical)
• Gapped down 2 days ago, gapped back up Friday, gapped up... then crashed

PLATINUM:

• Down $26 (was down $30)
• Went vertical over last few days

SILVER (SLV):

• Down 7% today
• Low $63.92, was at $66.17
• "Buyers coming in a little bit"
• "Had a straight shot move, got extended to the upside, got a pullback day"

GOLD (GLD):

• Down 4.25% today

Gary's Take: "Why does it gap? Because these things trade overnight."

"They're still in major uptrends. But if I was to guess, you probably hit a pretty good wall on Friday and you probably got some work to do now. Backing and filling, filling and backing."

"That said, I thought that was happening Wednesday and you had a major gap to the upside on Friday. So who the hell knows? Not easy."

Bitcoin/Crypto: BEAR MARKET 🔴

Gary's Blunt Assessment: "Bitcoin, crypto is bearish. It's in a bear market. Nobody that goes on TV says it's in a bear market. And that's that."

Bear Market Characteristics:

• "They last longer than anybody would ever believe"
• "They will go farther down than anybody will ever believe"
• "Every up day they'll call the bottom"

Key Levels to Watch (If Broken = "Vicious Drop"):

IBIT (Bitcoin ETF):

• Watch $47.87 first, then $46.68 (holding lows for 5-6 weeks)
• "If those lows get taken out, we expect a vicious drop to occur"

GBTC:

• Watch $65.98 first, then $64.41

ETHE (Ethereum):

• Watch $22.77, then $21.96

MicroStrategy (MSTR):

• $457 → $156 since July
• "We have others calling it a scam. We have others calling it a scheme. We call it a bear market that has been accentuated because of the leverage involved."
• CEO "continues to go out like it's no big deal. We expect Bitcoin to be 1.3 million, then 12 million. He's calling for like 13 million. I think they're all freaking insane. I think it's Looney Tunes, kids."

The Irony: "This is all in the face of an administration that has their family neck deep in crypto and keeps touting it on a daily basis."

"All we hear about every day is crypto this and crypto that and mining this and mining that. All we can tell you, it's in a bear market."

Has Gold/Silver Taken Over From Crypto? Gary: "As a fact the answer is yes. But is there a cause and effect there? I don't know."

AI Stocks: Individual Bubbles Popping 📉

Gary's View: "Do you think artificial intelligence is a bubble? Well, I don't think artificial intelligence is a bubble. I think a lot of the stocks are."

Bubbles That Already Popped:

• CoreWeave: "Highly touted, is down in the 60s. That's already a bubble that popped."
• Oracle: "Hit the 50s. A bubble that popped."
• BE (crypto name): 148 → 88
• CRDO (Credo): 214 → 144
• VRT: 202 → 165 (-20%)
• Supermicro: High 123 → 66 → 30 ("Oh, what did they tell us about that one?")

Gary's Big Worry: OVERPROMISING

"My biggest worry? Overpromising. With the administration, they're overpromising the golden age stuff. Affordability's a hoax. You know that. The latest one is going to be the greatest tax refund in history."

On AI Companies: "When it comes to these companies and artificial intelligence... some of the numbers they have promised and predicted on, they're calling backlogs... Number one, the numbers don't make sense. They don't make sense, the numbers, on twofold. Number one, how big the numbers are. But the other part is, how is it possible to make a dime off of these?"

"These are expenses for companies. You know, all companies have revenues and expenses."

The Lemonade Stand Analogy: "If you start a lemonade stand, your expense is going to be the Dixie Cups and the lemonade... if it costs you 25 cents for a cup of lemonade and you sell it for a dollar, you're making 75 cents per cup. I don't know how the numbers that are being predicted has any chance of making any money."

The Risk: "I just wonder if there will come a day where one of these big machas comes out and states, you know, we gave out that number, but... and then you know what happens then? A little old hat breaks loose."

Stocks to Watch: NVIDIA, Broadcom (just got hit on earnings), Microsoft, Oracle (going into depths of hell)

🚨 OKLO: THE POSTER CHILD OF NO-SALES CARNAGE

The Numbers:

• $194 → $74 (went from $20 → $194 with no sales, back to $74 with no sales)
• $11.5 BILLION market cap at $74... with ZERO sales
• "If you bought the stock today at $74, you're paying $11.5 billion for a company with no sales"

The Kicker: Two founders just sold $340 MILLION worth of stock

Gary: "Smart. I would too. Interesting that they're selling down here, huh? So in other words, it's gone from $194 to $74 and they get me the hell out here. What do they know? Maybe they've listened to my radio show. That eventually they go back to where they came from."

"The shame of it is they're cashing out $340 million on a company that has no freaking sales. And they're able to do it because of touts and shouts and pundits that see something moving so they put a buy rating on it whether they have no sales or not. And who ends up losing? Not the two founders."

The Broader Carnage: "I got about 75 to 100 names that are now down 50% plus from their highs if not more. And they all have the same characteristic. No sales or very little and losing a ton."

"We didn't predict it happening now, we just said eventually it was going to happen. But... they've pretty much all crashed. And when I use the word crashed, they're a ton of them down 50-60%. In a matter of 10 weeks."

"Our same motto was, if nothing changes, if nothing changes all these stocks will go back where they came from. If they continue to have zero sales."

What's "Cheap" (But Still Avoid) 📊

OIL STOCKS:

• Cheap versus the market
• Problem: "It's all dependent on oil prices. So cheap as they want to go, if oil prices keep going south, sorry"

HOUSING STOCKS:

• Toll Brothers: Trading 10x earnings (market at 25x)
• Lennar: 13x earnings despite earnings dropping last 4 quarters (-23%, -48%, -49%, -50%)

Gary: "Why aren't the housing stocks going up? Well, because they're very cyclical and earnings are starting to drop."

"Cheap. Cheap is all relative. And sometimes you ask yourself the question, why are they so cheap? What does the market know to make them so cheap? Does the market think earnings are going to fall off a cliff? Well, they happen to be, and Lennar they have."

"We know it's cheap. We know price earnings multiples. But we also know what a bull or bear market looks like."

Leading Stocks 🟢

MICRON:

• Up another $9 off monster numbers
• Only semiconductor standout

Market Structure Warning ⚠️

Gary: "Fewer and fewer stocks are working. More and more stocks are breaking below. But nothing real bad."

"You know how at the start of the bear market, back in 21-22, we were telling you, hey, this is getting real bad. I'm not seeing it getting real bad, but certainly we're losing some things."

NASDAQ Breadth:

• 262 new yearly lows vs 63 new yearly highs = 4:1 ratio bearish

Gary's Key Quotes

On Bear Markets: "Bear markets, there are certain characteristics of bear markets. They last longer than anybody would ever believe. They will go farther down than anybody will ever believe. Every up day they'll call the bottom. That's bear markets for you."

On Crypto: "So where it ends, we don't know. What we have told you to do is avoid the crypto."

On No-Sales Stocks: "Our goal in this show is to protect you from all the money that's lost out there... Part of that process is knowing from our studies of bull and bear markets that eventually companies with no sales are gonna go back where they came from."

"We hope you listened."

On Predictions: "And again, we're not predicting this. This is not a prediction. It is an outline of some of the numbers we have received."

On MicroStrategy: "It's just like, you know how we outline microstrategy to you? I think before Bitcoin even topped, we had said to you, geez, Bitcoin's at a high and microstrategy's down so-and-so percent. What if Bitcoin dropped 5%? That's exactly what we said."

"Bitcoin topped out on October 6th. Microstrategy stock was at 365 down from 457 from 10 weeks before. And guess what happened? All we're just doing is putting little 1 plus 1 equals 2."

On Valuations: "In growth, the more expensive, the better." (for growth stocks specifically)

Personal Note: Referenced Minnesota Somalian fraud story involving fake child care/medical/autism centers collecting government money - "the shame of it... many people paint everybody with the same brush."

What to Watch

• Bitcoin ETF levels (IBIT $47.87/$46.68, GBTC $65.98/$64.41)
• NASDAQ new lows vs new highs ratio
• AI earnings reality vs promises
• NVIDIA, Broadcom, Microsoft, Oracle
• SOX index (was down today after Micron surge)