📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"
Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning
📅 Monday, December 2, 2025
"BACK ABOVE THE 50-DAY" - But Powell Stops QT, Inflation Warnings
Market Action
- ALL MAJOR INDICES BACK ABOVE 50-DAY MA: Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, SOX, Russell 2000, Mid-Caps
- Gary: "There is no chance of ascending if you are below the 50-day moving average. The fact that price for the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 are back above the 50-day, that is good news."
- NASDAQ: "As long as the big indices are trading above the 50-day moving average, opportunity. If price goes back below, not opportunity."
The Recovery Since Nov 20: "Two Thursdays ago, I believe that date was the 20th of November. I thought hell was going to break loose. That was the day NVIDIA reported earnings and reversed harshly and took everything down, and just things looked awful. And then we gathered up the next day and really have not looked back. Simple as that."
Leading Sectors 🟢
- Semiconductors - "Just strong, another strong day"
- AMAT new high
- ASML new high
- KLAC and LRCX better (not new highs yet)
- Teradyne right up at new highs
- Even weak Texas Instruments "starting to come on"
- Gary: "Very tough to have a bear market when semiconductors are not croaking. They lead up, they lead down."
- Silver - "Muevo and fuego" (up today)
- Gold - Strong (pulled back today but still strong)
- Crypto - Possible near-term low found
Lagging Sectors 🔴
- Healthcare - Was strong, pulling back now (not a biggie)
- Banks - Trading tight, setting up, "refuse to break out"
- No-Sales Froth - Round-tripping, going back to where they came from
Leading Stocks 🚀
Semiconductors Leading:
- AMAT (Applied Materials) - New high
- ASML - New high
- Teradyne - Right at new highs
- Texas Instruments - Even weak names starting to come on
- Intel - Up 8%, broke to new high (Trump administration took position in company involved with Intel)
Insider Buying:
- DoorDash - Director bought $100M at $195 on Nov 25
- Stock now $217 (up $11 today on upgrade)
- Director owns 32M shares, bought 514K shares
- Already made $11M profit
- Norwegian Cruise Lines - Multiple insiders buying Nov 6-7 and Nov 25
- CEO: $460K, Chief Luxury Officer: $250K, CFO: $200K
- Directors: $500K, $129K, $96K
- Chief Vessel Operations (Nov 25): $99K
- Bought at $18-19.50
Dow Leader:
- Caterpillar - Leading, looks like it could go to new highs
Setting Up:
- Goldman Sachs - Trading tight, hasn't broken out yet, "if they do, potentially playable"
- Citigroup - Same
Lagging Stocks 📉
Mega Caps Just Bouncing:
- Meta - Just bouncing
- Microsoft - Just bouncing
- Tesla - Just bouncing
- NVIDIA - "Looked like it was going to break down again yesterday and reversed. Was up $5 today. Only finished up $1."
- Rallied right up towards 50-day MA and got sold
- Remains range bound below 50-day
- New commitments is an avoid
- Support at ~$175 - "A break below there, we'll have to talk"
Healthcare Pullback:
- Eli Lilly - Dropped 1,111 → 1,046 (5%) after going from $900
- Overall healthcare "remains in shape" but pulling back
No-Sales Carnage Continuing:
- Examples: 10.5→5, 16.25→8 (50% drops), 19.75→5
- Rare earth stocks crushed after government hype
- Gary: "If nothing changes based on precedent, will all go back to where they came from. We're already seeing it in droves."
Gary's Positioning 💰
- Watching bank setups (Goldman, Citigroup)
- NVIDIA "new commitments is an avoid" (below 50-day)
- Happy about semiconductors leading
Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯
MAJOR FED/INFLATION WARNING - Gary's Most Alarmed in Weeks:
Powell Stopped QT Yesterday: "Jay Powell, as of yesterday, stopped quantitative tightening. I hate even talking about this crap, but it's a must, because the destruction this man created is beyond the beyond. And I'm worried about the destruction he's going to create going forward. And I'm worried about the destruction that Trump is going to create with easy money."
The Whole Story:
- Powell printed to $9 trillion, took rates to zero
- Bought 10-year bonds like crazy, "interfering with the free market"
- 10-year yield went to 0.5%, created all the inflation
- Biden stomped on it with "ridiculous deficit spending and growth of government"
- Had to stop printing, then roll it back (let bonds mature and go away)
- Now: No longer letting it roll off - if bond comes due, that fake money stays, probably buying more bonds
Kevin Hassett Next Fed Head: "President is going to take over. President Trump has called for 1% Fed funds. And I can promise you, we'll have 10% inflation if he does that."
"He's going to nominate, looks like this guy, Kevin Hassett, who's just Trump. You might as well put strings on his shoulders because he's just going to be a puppet."
"If they go to ridiculous easy money, it's going to create massive inflation again and all kinds of problems are going to happen again."
Why Indices Back Above 50-Day: "Kevin Hassett, I think, has got the market better and back above the 50-day moving average. That's the story."
10-Year Yield:
- Bounced up a little, was down today
- "No harm at this juncture. No harm. No harm."
- Watching bond market closely
Oil & Yields: "I'm happy that oil continues to just hang. I'm happy that yields just hang. And now we're getting a little dose of more easy money and we'll see where it takes us. At the end of that road, if they go too far, if you like that 9, 10% inflation..."
Key Observations 💡
Bitcoin/Crypto Assessment:
- Bitcoin broke 50-day on October 13 (Gary's bar mitzvah anniversary)
- Been on avoid list entire time
- "Dropped for a few days, rallied back up, tagged 50-day, then crumbled"
- Now: "Think probably, you got a near term low in for crypto"
- Tagged March/April lows, tested and gapped back up
- "Are we in a new bull? No. Possible new bull? Who knows?"
MicroStrategy/Michael Saylor:
- Now called just "Strategy"
- "Scares the crap out of me and should scare the crap out of you"
- "Leverage to buy Bitcoin"
- "What he basically does is buy Bitcoin. Gee, what a business."
- "No sales, no earnings, no product, no services"
Trump Family Crypto Involvement: "You ended up with the president and his family. They're involved, and they got encrypted, all kinds of whatever, and making billions."
Bitcoin Reality Check: "It is only based on the next person buying at a higher price. And nobody can argue that. It does nothing."
"Anybody could come up with any stupid price on Bitcoin, but it's based on nothing. Ask anybody in the business, what do they do? They can't answer."
Crypto Coin Track Record:
- Dennis Rodman pot coin: went to zero
- Mark Cuban coin: went to zero next day
- Melania Trump meme coin: down 99%
- Trump coin: down 95% (people cashed out beforehand)
- Bitcoin: went to $124K from nothing, so why can't it go to $250K, $500K, $1M?
- Gary: "I'm not saying it won't. I'm just saying this is not real world stuff."
Housing Affordability Warning: "They are talking about affordability now, but they're all missing the mark. It was caused by Powell, a lot of it, especially the housing."
"I'm in hopes this administration does nothing on affordability because they'll just make it worse. Because their answer to everything seems to be easier money and all that'll do is make it worse."
"You want distortions? Easy money. You want to not be able to afford a home? Easier money."
"If they just leave things alone, you know what's going to happen? Prices for housing will continue to come down, which would not necessarily be bad. It would just be a normalization from the clown Jay Powell that rigged the bond market that caused Fantasyland."
"The high end is now starting to be whooped. That's good to see."
Powell's Historical Destruction:
- "Remember, Bernanke started it and told us the printing would be short term. And he used the terminology quantitative easy and go screw himself."
- Powell printed to $9T, took rates to zero
- "Ripped the whole bond market, bought up 10-year bonds like crazy, interfering with the free market"
- "10-year yield went down to a half percent, created all the inflation"
- "Of course, screwed up the whole market to this day"
No-Sales Companies: "If nothing changes based on precedent, will all go back to where they came from. You need to know this. And we're already seeing it in droves."
"I've been amazed to watch people jump on the back of no-sales junk. When I use the word junk, it's just companies that have no sales. I use the term junk as a stock."
Rare Earth Government Involvement: "Government got involved, the president with the rare earth, and supposedly negotiations were on and contracts may or may not be signed with no-sales companies. Beats the hell out of us what's going on."
"They're taking another position, another company that's involved with Intel. Intel broke into new high ground today, up 8%. They better perform."
Insider Trading Concerns: "If we ever find out that there was massive insider trading with these things, well, nobody's going to go to jail. Nobody in DC goes to jail, right? And anybody who does go to jail gets pardoned, right?"
"The fact we even have to talk about that pisses the hell out of us."
DoorDash Insider Buying Context:
- Director owns 32M shares already (multi-billionaire)
- Bought $100M more (514K shares)
- Gary: "Usually rich people don't spend 100 million bucks if they think they're going to lose money"
- Already up $22/share = $11M profit
- "The rich get richer, right?"
Norwegian Cruise Lines Context:
- "Cruise line stocks except for Viking have been very, very weak"
- Multiple insiders buying over 3-week period is significant
- "We haven't been able to even do this, because there's really been no buying, insider buying whatsoever of anything out there"
Semiconductor Importance: "I can't promise you anything. I can state, very tough to have a bear market when the semiconductors are not croaking. They lead up, they lead down. And the fact that they've been getting better is, without a doubt, part of what's been going on with the market getting better."
50-Day Moving Average Rule: "As a lesson to all of you, there is no chance of ascending if you are below the 50-day moving average. Doesn't mean you ascend if you are above. You can stay above and sit around and do nothing, but the fact that price is back above the 50-day, that is good news."
The Two-Week Story: Nov 20: Thought hell would break loose after NVIDIA reversal Nov 21: Gathered up Now: Really have not looked back, all indices back above 50-day
No comments:
Post a Comment