Dr. Boyce Watkins Market Insights Tracker

Episode: November 18, 2025 - "Flight to Quality" + Wendy's Deep Dive

MARKET ENVIRONMENT 🔴⚠️

Status: "Rolling Recession" (Cathie Wood term) + K-Shaped Economy

Top going up, bottom going down
Wealth Effect: Market decline making people feel less rich
Trump tariffs created "imbalanced ripple effect" across sectors
Market cooling = positive for long-term (forces fundamental analysis)

Major Theme: FLIGHT TO QUALITY

Moving gains from "high-flying wild stocks" (like OKLO) to solid companies
Shift from "meme stock culture" to analyst-driven investing
"When market dips, people start thinking before investing"

NEW POSITION: MAJOR DEEP DIVE

WEN - Wendy's 🍔 NEW CONTRARIAN VALUE PLAY

Position: Bought shares at $8.50-$8.60 Position Size: Less than 1% of portfolio (approximately 0.5%) Market Cap: $1.6B (down from $3B+)

Performance Destruction:

Down 52% past year
Down 61% past 5 years
Down 30% past 6 months
Down 3% past month

The Crisis:

Closing 200-250 stores by end of 2025
Same-store sales: DOWN 4% (first 9 months 2025)
Revenue: DOWN 2%
Net income: DOWN 6%
"Brand getting their butts kicked"

🚀 BULL CASE - Why Dr. Watkins Bought:

Massive Undervaluation:
- Current: $8.60
- Analyst Target: $17
- Trading at 50% of analyst fair value
Strong Free Cash Flow:
- Can fund stock buybacks
- Netflix model: Reward long-term shareholders
- "One buyback and stock moves upward = touchdown"
Project Fresh Turnaround (Announced Oct 9, 2025):
- "Revitalize, reignite, accelerate, enhance"
- Comprehensive strategic plan
- Stronger franchise partnerships ("One Wendy's" approach)
- Board put management on notice
- Better technology, digital ordering, upgraded equipment
Options Income Potential:
- Example: 3,000 shares for $25,000
- Sell $9 strike calls expiring Dec 19
- Generate $750-800/month income
- "Treat it like a real estate deal"
International Expansion Opportunity:
- Weak international footprint
- Free cash flow can fund expansion
Value Investor Shift:
- Market moving from speculation to fundamentals
- "Investors' tastes shifting" away from meme stocks
- Return to analyst-driven pricing

⚠️ BEAR CASE - The Risks:

Execution Risk:
- "Project Fresh" may fail
- Management track record poor (61% value destruction)
Rising Costs:
- Labor costs increasing
- Ingredient costs up
- Real estate maintenance
- Trump tariffs impact
Cultural Headwinds:
- Fast food "gone the way of alcohol and tobacco"
- Consumer taste shift away from processed food
- Health consciousness rising
- "Have consumer tastes changed so people don't want to die?"
Franchise Model Weakness:
- Brand dilution from franchisees
- Less capital-intensive but harder to control quality
Competition Pressure:
- Getting crushed by competitors

Investment Thesis Summary:

"Don't need Wendy's to be great, just need it at $10 for touchdown"
"Doesn't have to achieve all goals - one or two wins enough"
Position sized for risk: Only 0.5% of portfolio
Personal connection: Childhood memories + worked there at 16

CRYPTO/BITCOIN UPDATE 🔴

Bitcoin - Bought More Today

Current Price: $94,000 (down from $124,000 peak) YTD Performance: +1% only (started year at $93,000) Status: "Getting body slammed"

Key Insight: "Bitcoin is NOT digital gold"

Gold up 56% this year
Gold went up <1% when market dipped (expected defensive behavior)
Bitcoin crashed with market (risk asset, not safe haven)

Long-Term Thesis UNCHANGED:

"Every indicator says Bitcoin hits $200K, $300K, $400K"
"I am a big believer in Bitcoin"
Action: Bought more Bitcoin this morning
Caveat: "Nothing's guaranteed"

AI SECTOR WARNING ⚠️🔴

NVIDIA Earnings - "TORNADO NVIDIA"

Current Price: $191 This Month: +4.8% (holding up better than market) Dr. Watkins Entry: Under $10/share

CRITICAL CATALYST THIS WEEK:

NVIDIA earnings report coming
"If NVIDIA says anything other than 'world is bright and sunny and we're making more money than Jesus'"
Could crash entire AI sector
Could end the AI fairy tale
"Batten down the hatches"

Market Positioning: NVIDIA is "grown-up of AI bubble, sturdiest anchor"

AI Bubble: Gangsters vs Wanksters

REAL PLAYERS (Gangsters - generating cash):

NVIDIA: Chips everybody wants, real revenue
Microsoft: AI with real cash
Google: AI with real cash

PRETENDERS (Wanksters - borrowing to compete):

Oracle: "Borrowing money to pretend they're next NVIDIA"
CoreWeave: "Borrowing to pretend they're next Google, but they're not"
OpenAI: "People questioning what will really be of OpenAI"

GOOGLE PURCHASE 🟢

Position: Bought "a bunch of shares" Thesis: "Going to make money no matter what, good at surviving economy" Category: Flight to quality, defensive tech positioning

OKLO STATUS UPDATE 🔴

Peak Price: $170 Current: ~$100 (started discussions at $8) Action: Taking gains off table

Repeated Warning: "Please remember this is not normal, not this easy to make money"

"Everybody thinks it is, but it's not"
Now seeing "the other side of that"
Moving profits to "solid companies"

YOLO CANNABIS ETF - SUCCESS STORY 📚

Example of Dollar-Cost Averaging Working:

Bought in $20s
Dropped to teens, below $10, down to $3-$2
Kept buying the dip throughout decline
"Original thesis held true" (cannabis legalization coming)
Small price movement from $2 to $3 flipped all losses to profit

Key Lesson: "Making money isn't about buying good company - it's about selling for more than you bought it for"

MARKET CATALYSTS AHEAD

Fed Decision:

Will they cut rates? (Dovish = prices up)
Stay hawkish? (Prices deflate more)

Spring 2026:

Trump replacing Jerome Powell
Expected to be bullish catalyst short-term

This Week:

Big cap earnings reports
NVIDIA earnings = MASSIVE

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY - NOVEMBER UPDATE

Value Investing Return:

Market shifting from speculation to fundamentals
"Flight to quality" from wild stocks to solid companies
Cooling market = benefit (forces due diligence)
"If we have a crash, really going to get good - people will think"

Position Sizing Discipline:

Wendy's: Less than 1% of portfolio
"Don't roll the dice and bet it all"
Size based on conviction + risk tolerance

Good Company ≠ Good Investment:

"Sometimes great company = terrible investment"
"Sometimes terrible company = great investment"
"Don't need company to be great for you to make profit"
Just need modest value realization (Wendy's $8.50 → $10 = win)

Long-Term Strategy:

"Consistency is the name of the game"
Buy and hold through volatility
Short-term predictions = "entertainment and education"
"Nobody knows exactly which way market going"

Dollar-Cost Averaging:

YOLO cannabis example proves power
Keep buying dips when thesis holds
Losses flip to profits on small bounces

CURRENT PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT (November 18, 2025)

Value/Defensive Plays (NEW FOCUS):

WEN - Wendy's (new contrarian value bet)
GOOGL - Google (bought bunch of shares, defensive tech)
WMT - Walmart (holding from Oct 3)
SCHW - Charles Schwab (holding from Oct 3)

AI/Tech (Taking Profits, Cautious):

NVDA - NVIDIA (holding from under $10, awaiting earnings nervously)
OKLO - Taking profits off table as price fell from $170

Crypto (Buying Dip):

Bitcoin - Bought more at $94K despite YTD +1%

Energy (Holding):

URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (from Oct 3)

Income Generation:

AFRM - Affirm (options selling, from Oct 3)
WEN - Wendy's (options income strategy planned)

Infrastructure (Holding from Oct 9):

CAT - Caterpillar
JPM - JPMorgan (substantial investment)
TSLA - Tesla
BOTZ - Robotics ETF

SECTOR STATUS (November 18, 2025)

🟢 LEADING - Quality/Defensive

Big Tech Survivors (Google, Microsoft - cash-generating AI)
Value Turnarounds (Wendy's - contrarian bet)

🟡 HOLDING/CAUTIOUS - Core Tech

NVIDIA (earnings catalyst this week - make or break)
Infrastructure plays (CAT, JPM)

🔴 LAGGING/TAKING PROFITS

High-flying speculation (OKLO profits being taken)
Bitcoin/Crypto (down but buying more on thesis)
Oracle and AI pretenders (wanksters)

❌ AVOID

Fast food (except contrarian value plays)
Meme stocks
Companies borrowing to compete in AI

Episode: October 9, 2025 - Manufacturing & Productivity Boom

NEW MARKET THESIS 🏗️

Central Theme: American manufacturing and productivity boom expected

Data center construction accelerating
Manufacturing facilities expansion
Trade skills shortage becoming opportunity
AI creating demand for physical/hands-on work

SECTOR SHIFT: From Digital to Physical Infrastructure

Key Insight: "AI can replicate brain work (programmers, accountants, strategists) but can't replicate physical building yet"

Trade Skills Renaissance:

America stopped teaching trades in schools
Now facing shortage of workers who can "work with their hands"
Carpentry, HVAC, plumbing talent needed for infrastructure build-out

NEW STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

CAT - Caterpillar 🏗️

Position: Recommended (not stated if purchased) Thesis: Heavy equipment demand for infrastructure boom

Data centers construction
Manufacturing facilities
"Rebuilding of America" theme Type: Long-term investment (not for short-term income generation) Risk Note: "All investing involves risk" - emphasis on careful position sizing

JPM - JPMorgan Chase 🏦

Position: "Made substantial investment" CEO: Jamie Dimon - "I don't bet against Tom Brady and Jamie Dimon" Thesis:

GDP growth accelerating
Fed cutting rates = "sweet spot" for JPM
"They know how to position themselves, know how to make money"

Strategy: Generational Stock

Dollar cost average over 30-year period
Pass to children for intergenerational wealth
"Nice little black-owned business that's yours"
"Just because you ain't doing the labor don't mean you can't be a business owner"

TSLA - Tesla 🤖

Position: Has investment stake (existing holding) Thesis: Leading company in robotics Note: "Don't care about politics" - investment based on fundamentals

BOTZ - Robotics ETF 🤖

Position: Long-term investment (holding) Thesis: "Robotics expected to be bigger than automobile industry" Future Vision:

Robots smarter, stronger, more flexible than humans
"Different world" when robots arrive
Major economic transformation coming

EMERGING THEMES & SECTORS

🔥 Robotics/AI Physical Implementation

Moving from AI software to AI hardware/robotics
Robotics > Automobile industry in size (future projection)
Trade skills + robotics = future economy

📈 Physical Infrastructure Build-Out

Data centers for AI
Manufacturing facilities
Heavy equipment demand (Caterpillar opportunity)

🏦 Financial Services Positioning

Fed rate cuts + GDP growth = bank profit opportunity
JPMorgan positioned in "sweet spot"

INVESTMENT STRATEGY UPDATES

Generational Wealth Framework:

JPMorgan Example:

Invest consistently over 30 years
Dollar cost average (don't bet it all)
Pass to children
Children become "owners" without doing labor
"Black-owned business" through stock ownership

Key Philosophy: "We've been working for them for a long time. Time they work for us"

Risk Management Emphasis:

"Don't roll the dice and bet it all - good way to go broke"
"Always tell you about downside so we don't forget to be careful"
"Want you to get used to trying and failing - only way to succeed"
Emphasis on risk acknowledgment before every recommendation

CURRENT PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT (as of October 9, 2025)

Energy/Nuclear Thesis (Ongoing):

URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (+37% YTD as of Oct 3)
OKLO - Nuclear SMR (volatile but held)
URA - Uranium ETF (held)

Infrastructure/Manufacturing (New Thesis):

CAT - Caterpillar (recommended)
JPM - JPMorgan (substantial new investment)

Technology/Robotics (Long-term):

TSLA - Tesla (held)
BOTZ - Robotics ETF (held)

Defensive Positions:

WMT - Walmart (held)
SCHW - Charles Schwab (held)

Income Generation:

AFRM - Affirm (options selling)

Episode: October 3, 2025 (Morning) - Government Shutdown Analysis

MARKET CONTEXT 🔴

Event: Government shutdown in progress
Market Status: Down 22 points (modest decline)
Key Risk: Loss of consumer confidence, hundreds of thousands of jobs affected
Historical Pattern: "Shutdowns have been a buying opportunity for investors"

BUYING OPPORTUNITY THESIS 📈

Core Concept: "America always takes care of rich people" - investors protected through Fed policy

The "Fed Put" Explanation:

Economy weakens → Fed lowers interest rates
Lower rates → Stock prices rise, real estate values increase
"Weird bastardized relationship" between economic performance and stock market
Titanic Analogy: Fed = lifeboats, only 3,000 boats for 10,000 passengers - "rich people get the lifeboats"

INFLATION STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

Working Class: Hurt by inflation (higher prices at grocery store)
Investors: Benefit from inflation (stocks up, real estate up)
Example: "Lose $100 at grocery store, make $1,000 in stocks"
Lower interest rates → inflation → asset price appreciation

STOCKS PURCHASED TODAY (October 3, 2025)

WMT - Walmart

Position: Bought more shares Thesis: Safe haven during recession

"Solid company, ain't going nowhere"
When recession hits, "everybody's going to Walmart"
Not best performer but defensive positioning

SCHW - Charles Schwab

Position: Bought shares Category: Financial services

URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (Different from URA)

Performance: +37% YTD Position: Bought more (has been holding) Thesis: Energy shortage continues

AI infrastructure spending: "trillions of dollars, no sign of slowing"
AI spending = "big narrative of the economy"
May pullback if AI spending slows, but unlikely

AFRM - Affirm Holdings

Position: Bought on dip Strategy: Income driver through options selling Resource: "How to Make Money Without Working" training (text "money" to 87948)

WEALTH CONSCIOUSNESS FRAMEWORK (Dr. George Fraser Video)

Time Horizons by Economic Class:

Very Poor: Think day-to-day (survival mode)
Poor: Think week-to-week
Middle Class: Think month-to-month (comfort seeking)
Rich: Think year-to-year (freedom seeking)
Very Rich: Think decade-to-decade and generation-to-generation

Primary Goals:

Very Poor/Poor → Survival
Middle Class → Comfort
Rich/Very Rich → Freedom + intergenerational wealth transfer

Time + Consciousness = Wealth

Key Insight: "Wealth is a product of efficient use of resources"

Wealth Ecosystem Components:

Time
Consciousness/mental framework
Family support
Mental health
Physical health
Relationships
Money (just one component, not the whole)

Time Mathematics:

"Easy to make you a millionaire in 30 years, impossible overnight"
Example: Person broke at 25 = 25 years of no investing, no asset building, no economic education
Wasted time = wasted compound growth opportunity

Consciousness Levels:

Low Frequency: "Dog consciousness" - moment to moment, reacting to immediate needs
High Frequency: "Spiritual giant" - thinking in decades and generations
Society wants low consciousness: "Living paycheck to paycheck, making desperate decisions"

The Bill-Paying Trap:

"Most people can't focus on higher-level achievements because they're too busy paying bills"
Dreams die because immediate financial pressure commands all attention
Financial security = freedom to have desired consciousness level

INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRINCIPLES EXPANDED

Store of Value Concept 🏦

Most Important Job: Like quarterback protecting the ball

Primary reason to invest: Store of value (preservation)
Secondary reason: Growth
Spending money at mall = "guaranteed -100% return"
Investing = bucket storing cash for future

Economic Maturity vs Immaturity:

Immature (5-year-old mindset): Money is for spending/buying stuff
Mature (investor mindset): Money is for storing value and building freedom

Regular Investing Discipline:

"I buy all the time, regularly"
"What else are you going to do with your money?"
Not timing-dependent - consistent accumulation

Long-Term Investor Mindset:

Natural optimists who can see past short-term volatility
"This too shall pass" - stocks down today, up in 3 years
Focus on longer-term goals despite temporary setbacks

ECONOMIC EDUCATION INITIATIVES

For Children: Financial flashcards and workbooks

Stock market investing flashcards
Crypto flashcards
Stock options flashcards
Real estate flashcards
Available at: financialflashcards.com

Goal: Change children's relationship to money early - build "time consciousness" and generational wealth thinking

CULTURAL OBSERVATIONS

Hip-Hop & Economic Maturity:

Critique: Culture encourages spending rather than building
Positive example: D1 (rapper) - supported by Black Business School tour sponsorship
"I love rappers, just don't like stupidity"

Political Independence:

"Don't believe in Congressional Black Caucus, Republicans, or Democrats"
"Only person looking out for you is you"
Focus on capital/power, not political gatekeeping

RISK WARNINGS & MARKET OUTLOOK

Short-term: Government shutdown could extend, worsen consumer confidence
Long-term: "Your country's headed to hell in a handbasket" - multi-generational problem
Strategy: Stay invested, let Fed policy protect your assets
Key Insight: When economy weakens, Fed intervenes with rate cuts = investor protection

Episode: October 3, 2025 - "Black Wealth" Philosophy

CORE INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY 💡

Central Thesis: "Black wealth is black power in a capitalist society"

Key Principles:

Financial Freedom = Real Freedom: Finances provide independence that truth/politics cannot
Capitalism Literacy: Understanding money flows, growth patterns, and power structures
Independence Strategy: Don't rely on political gatekeepers (liberal or conservative)
Money as Power: In capitalist America, "money drives everything"
Economic Self-Reliance: Path to liberation through economic understanding, not political alignment

The Fish Analogy:

"Money is the water in this capitalist ocean"
Goal: Be a shark swimming comfortably, understanding where money flows and grows
Know what's happening when "weird financial things occur"

Freedom Through Finance:

Financial stability allows authentic self-expression
Living paycheck-to-paycheck forces compromise and hiding "the real you"
"Little bit of money allowed me to stand up chest out"

Warning Against Exploitation:

"Capitalism is a bully and a pimp"
Systems look for weaknesses to exploit and align you with their priorities
Focus on power (capital), not politics

Educational Mission: Help community understand financial dynamics to navigate capitalist society effectively

Episode: September 22, 2025

MARKET OUTLOOK ⚠️

Overall Assessment: Market is "really, really high"
Risk Warning: "Bright day can turn into dark day in seconds"
Advice: Protect investments, don't get too comfortable

OKLO UPDATE 🔥

Current Price: ~$137 (up from $135 previous day) Status: "The new NVIDIA" but key difference - "NVIDIA makes money, OKLO doesn't" Thesis Unchanged:

AI energy demand
Small modular reactors
Sam Altman/Trump connections
"Good hype with good thesis"

⚠️ ENTRY WARNING: "Should you buy now? Nobody knows"

ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY

Key Theme: Stock market democratization as solution to corporate exploitation

Anyone can buy S&P 500 and own pieces of wealth-generating companies
Inflation Strategy: Rich people benefit from inflation through asset ownership
- Example: Lose $100 at grocery store, make $1,000 in stocks
- Real estate values rise with general price increases
Economic Education: Change children's relationship to money early

Episode: September 21, 2025

LEADING SECTORS

Nuclear/Clean Energy 🔥

Primary Driver: AI energy demand creating shortage
Government Support: Strong institutional backing
Key Theme: Small modular reactors (SMRs) for AI infrastructure

Uranium 🔥

Driver: Expected shortage and higher demand from AI
Performance: Strong institutional acknowledgment of supply constraints

Energy (Traditional) 📈

Theme: "Energy from any and every way they can"
Government Support: Key driver of economic activity

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

OKLO - Nuclear Power Company

Current Price: $135 (was $8 a few months ago - 1,587% gain) Position: Dr. Watkins owns, selling call options

🚀 BULL CASE:

AI driving clean energy demand
Strong government/institutional support (Trump connection)
Recurring revenue model (sells electricity under long-term contracts)
Advanced fuel recycling technology
Fast reactor design with liquid metal cooling
Beyond hardware sales - utility-like business model

⚠️ BEAR CASE:

Execution Risk: Pre-revenue company, no commercial plants yet
Regulatory Risk: Slow nuclear regulation, past license applications denied
Technical Risk: Supply chain constraints for specialized uranium
Financial Risk: High capital requirements for reactor construction
Competition: Other SMR companies, renewable alternatives
Valuation Risk: "Probably overvalued" - market in "irrational exuberance"

Strategy: Selling deep out-of-money call options, prepared for pullback

URA - Uranium ETF

Performance: +75% YTD Position: Dr. Watkins owns Thesis: Uranium shortage due to AI energy demands

METC - Ramaco Resources (Coal)

Performance: +184% YTD, +197% over last year Location: Lexington, Kentucky Position: Recently bought, plans to sell options Thesis: Part of energy shortage solution, any energy source needed

ORBS - World ID Infrastructure

Connection: Sam Altman's World ID project Position: Dr. Watkins owns shares Thesis: Government support theme, human vs AI identification

Oracle (ORCL) - MISSED OPPORTUNITY

Performance: +40% in one day, Larry Ellison made ~$100B Catalyst: Trump/Altman Stargate data center announcement Lesson: Government connections driving major moves

HUT - Bitcoin Mining

Performance: +50-60% in recent months Position: "Just bought a big position"

IONQ - Quantum Computing

Position: "I think I own all of those" (referring to HUT, OCLO, IONQ)

Ethereum (ETH) - Cryptocurrency

Outlook: Positive based on Tom Lee (Fundstrat) comments Action: Planning to buy more

KEY INVESTMENT THEMES

Government Support = Performance Driver

Trump administration connections driving major gains
Sam Altman government relationships
Larry Ellison/Oracle government ties
"Government support appears to be the driver of economic activity"

AI Energy Demand

Creating shortage across energy sectors
Driving nuclear resurgence
Small modular reactors for data centers

Investment Strategy Principles

Options Selling: Selling call options for income/protection
Dollar Cost Averaging: Buy more when thesis holds but price drops
Risk Management: "Don't believe in fairy tales, even if they come true"
Overvaluation Awareness: Prepare for disappointment in hot stocks

EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES

Five-Year Pledge

Add investing as a monthly "bill"
Match car payment with investment amount
Text "pledge" to 87948 for ETF training

Upcoming Events

Tuesday Noon: Financial healing training (Stock Market Investors Club)
Monday: Stock options class at drboyceprime.com
Daily Morning Classes: Text "morning" to 87948

RISK WARNINGS

Overvaluation Concerns: Market in "irrational exuberance"
Execution Risks: Pre-revenue companies face delays
Regulatory Risks: Nuclear sector heavily regulated
Market Cycle Awareness: "Prepare for the next down cycle"
Cinderella Warning: "Superstar stocks can become losers next year"

PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Community Results: Multiple investors reporting 400%+ gains on OKLO Dr. Watkins Portfolio: "Today might have been my best day all year"

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

TORNADO NVIDIA APPROACHING + BUYING $8 BURGERS