📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

📅 Thursday, November 20, 2025

"TOP FIVE REVERSAL EVER" - NVIDIA Accounts Receivable Spike, 1,070 Point NASDAQ Swing

Market Action

Dow: Opened +700 (46,856), closed DOWN to 45,752 = 1,100 point reversal
NASDAQ: Opened +580 (hit 23,147), closed DOWN 486 (22,078) = 1,070 point swing!
SOX (Semis): Opened +213 (6,882), closed DOWN 530 (6,352) = 743 point reversal!
Breadth: 1,073 up/3,379 down NYSE, 1,095 up/3,468 down NASDAQ
651 new yearly lows on NYSE and NASDAQ combined

Gary: "This is one of the top five for me, days, as far as movement." "For me it's a top five on how strong we opened and how weak we closed. I've seen reversals before. But this one took some of that cake."

NVIDIA The Trigger:

Opened ~$196 (up from $186 close yesterday)
Closed $181 (down $15 from near open)
Lost $360 BILLION in market cap
Gary discovered last night: Accounts receivable SKYROCKETED - "Vertical. And what that means is they're not getting paid."

Leading Sectors 🟢

NOTHING - Everything reversed from early strength

Lagging Sectors 🔴

EVERYTHING - Especially AI/Semiconductors:

Semiconductor Equipment - Massive reversals (led early, crushed hardest)
AI Stocks - All reversed hard
Crypto - Another new low (Bitcoin, Ethereum, MicroStrategy)
Financials - Goldman, private equity, M&A companies "getting rocked"
Payments - MasterCard, Visa "getting rocked"
Housing/Housing-Related - Continuing weakness
Retail (most) - Continuing weakness
Restaurants - Continuing weakness
Travel - Continuing weakness
Insurance - Continuing weakness
Non-AI Economically Sensitive - Weak

Leading Stocks 🚀

NONE - Everything that opened strong reversed

Lagging Stocks 📉

Epic AI/Semi Reversals (Opened Hot, Crushed by Close):

NVIDIA:

Opened ~$196, closed $181 (down $15)
Lost $360 BILLION market cap
Accounts receivable skyrocketed - "they're not getting paid"

Semiconductor Equipment (The Worst):

KLAC - Opened $1,200 (up $35), closed $1,100 (down $65) = $100 reversal!
Micron - Down $25, "plain topped"
SanDisk - Down $50 (was up $10 early) = $60 reversal
CrowdStrike - Down $22
Celestica - Down $30

Crypto Carnage:

Bitcoin - Another new low (heading toward yearly lows)
Ethereum - Another new low
MicroStrategy - Down to $178 (from $457 in June) while CEO on TV over weekend
Coinbase - 402 → 238
Robinhood - Down $12 to $106 (150 → 106 in 3 weeks)
- Gary: "We just sold ours with a game. Phew. We should have made more than we made. But we sold with a game. We made four bucks."

Financials Reversing:

Goldman Sachs - Up $16 in morning, closed down $7.74 = $42 reversal! (was up $30, finished down $12)
Private Equity/M&A - "Getting rocked" (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore)
MasterCard/Visa - "Getting rocked"

Gary's Massive Bear Market List (Names He Thinks You Know):

Airbnb - Bear market
Celsius (drink) - Bear market
Carvana - Bear market
Checkpoint Software - Bear market
Kava Group - "Crashed"
DoorDash - 285 → 187 in 4 weeks
Duolingo, DraftKings, Equinix, GoDaddy, Garmin, HubSpot, Intuit - Bear markets
Match.com, ServiceNow, PayPal, Roblox, Roku, Synopsys, TKO (WWE), TradeDesk - Bear markets
Uber - "Gave in today"
CoreWeave, Shopify - Bear markets
Meta - Bear market
Salesforce.com - Bear market
Booking Holdings - Bear market
Adobe - "Brutal bear market"
Microsoft - 553 → 478
SAP - Bear market
Spotify - 785 → 589
Home Depot - 427 → 332 in 7 weeks

Gary: "And all the analysts continue to have buys and strong buys. Until they drop 50-60% and then they change it to holds."

No-Sales Bubble Continuing to Pop:

Nuclear stock: 193 → 88 (down 14% today), $25B market cap with NO sales
Rare earth: 13 → 44 → back to $12.20 ($1B market cap, no sales)
Hot IPOs: "All crashed" - 80→36, 57→28 in 6-8 weeks

Gary's "Left Screen" (Lesser Tech):

"Crumbled, crumbled. The list keeps getting bigger and bigger."
"Being mutilated now, destroyed. They're in bear markets."
Palantir - "Starting" (already down 20%+)
Uber - Topped today on 1.5x volume, breaking 6-month support

Gary's Positioning 💰

Sold Robinhood with small gain ($4): "Phew. We should have made more but we sold with a game."
Did nothing at the gap open this morning: "I hate these gaps. I don't like selling a big gap down. I don't like buying a big gap up."
Watching carefully
"The ice got thinner today"
Has the flu ("raw today")

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

THE ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE BOMB: Gary discovered NVIDIA's accounts receivable "skyrocketed. Skyrocketed to the roof. Vertical. And what that means is they're not getting paid." This is the trigger. He notes historically "when the market saw a real spike in account receivables, the stocks usually got hit." Yet it opened up huge, then reversed catastrophically. The reversal was led by the big institutions - "It was not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling." The concentration bubble is unwinding: institutions sold everything to pile into the few AI names, and now they're all selling together. Gary's measuring words carefully but notes things "look somewhat suspicious" - Oracle announced "gargantuan number," stock crashed; bonds of CoreWeave "dropping like stocks"; credit insurance going wrong way. Michael Burry betting big against Palantir/NVIDIA saying "accounting is a joke, numbers are ridiculous." Vendor circular financing concerns. Gary: "Today was not an okay day. Top five on how strong we opened and how weak we closed."

Key Observations 💡

The NVIDIA Accounts Receivable Discovery:

Gary didn't want to look at NVIDIA last night after Thanksgiving dinner
In car saw people against NVIDIA complaining, figured it was up
Opened at $196 (nice move for mega cap)
"But then I noticed something. Accounts receivable skyrocketed. Skyrocketed to the roof. Vertical."
"What that means is they're not getting paid. Not forever, but they ain't getting paid right now."
"Knowing a lot of these companies don't have the money or have to get invested in buying Nvidia, you wonder."
Historically: "When market saw real spike in account receivables, stocks usually got hit"

Michael Burry Context:

Made ton of money in Big Short (mortgage-backed securities)
Recently made big bets against Palantir and NVIDIA
Says "accounting is a joke, numbers are ridiculous"
Talks about vendor circular financing (Gary's concern too)
People making fun of him this morning when stocks up, now...
Gary: "We don't make fun of anybody here. We think this business is hard."

The Reversal Pattern:

"Big reversal. Big volume. It was not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling."
Excuse will be "computers and algorithms" - Gary: "That's a bunch of old crap. It's an excuse."
"These are the big institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds... executives and portfolio managers getting together"
Stocks that were strongest early (semiconductor equipment) got slaughtered hardest

Oracle Warning Validated:

"Oracle announces gargantuan number into 2030, and the stock has crashed"
345 → 214 (mentioned in previous show)
"Insurance for their credit is going the wrong way"
"Bonds of companies like CoreWeave are dropping like stocks"
"The big market's not believing this"

Jobs Report Reality:

115,000 jobs came out today
Administration: "What a great report"
Gary: "No. The report's not great. 115,000 jobs is not great. 250 is good."

President Trump Concern:

Gary: "You got a loose cannon for president on so many things. I just think there's too much of him every day."
What Gary wants: "Keep taxes low. Regulations low. Fight crime. Keep the border secure. And get the hell out of the way. That's it."
"That ain't happening though."

Wall Street Weird Products:

MSTU: Double performance of MicroStrategy - 31.50 → 1.20
Gary: "These doubles and triples and all that crap. Careful."
Also: "Writing calls on stocks, paying 100%. But they're not. Be careful."

Internals Disaster:

651 new yearly lows "even though you're not even close to new yearly lows of the indices"
"Evidencing underneath the surface is what we've been telling you"
"How many more names under pressure in their own bear markets"

Gary's Measuring Words:

"We're big believers about one plus one equals two"
"Without getting too tough, on the surface, look somewhat suspicious"
"I'm not accusing anything of anybody. But I am reporting to you. Man, I've seen this before."
"Wait a minute. I saw this before."

The Concentration Bubble:

"The bubble in concentration. It doesn't have to be on the business. The bubble's in concentration."
"If these big funds sell everything, and sell them down to nothing, and keep piling on the few, what happens?"
Now they're all selling together

Oils Weakening:

"There's a smattering of oils that are strong. They're coming in too now."
"Whenever there's a group of 200 stocks and 10 of them are strong, we're not going to buy them. You really want some group participation."

BamaTrades

Thursday, November 20, 2025

TOP FIVE REVERSAL EVER" - NVIDIA Accounts Receivable Spike, 1,070 Point NASDAQ Swing