📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"
Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning
📅 Friday, November 22, 2025
"THE WORST GIVES THE MIDDLE FINGER" - Broad Market Rallies Hard While Tech Stays Broken
Market Action
- Dow: Up 493 (after 1,100 point drop Thursday, and 2,700 point drop in 6 days: 48,431→45,752)
- NASDAQ: Wild intraday - down 180, then UP 460 (hit 22,531), closed up 195
- 640-point NASDAQ swing during the day
- Russell 2000: Up 2.8% (slaughtered yesterday, leading up today)
- Mid-Caps: Up 2.8% (slaughtered yesterday)
- Transports: Up $500 (3%)
- NVIDIA: Down couple bucks despite Trump China news
- All major indices still BELOW 50-day MA
Gary's Summary: "Amazing two days! Best way I can explain it. It was an amazing two days in my world."
Trump China News: Mid-day announcement (not confirmed) that NVIDIA allowed to sell to China. NASDAQ immediately jumped from up ~95 to up 460. Gary: "Allowing. We're going to allow you to do this. We're going to allow you to do that. You are a public company or a private company. It nauseates the hell out of me."
Leading Sectors 🟢
THE BIG STORY - Areas Gary's Been Warning About for MONTHS Had Strong Day:
- Healthcare/Pharma - "Leadership qualities"
- PPH and XLV (ETFs) showing strength
- IHI (medical equipment) on verge of breaking out
- Eli Lilly (went vertical 2-3 weeks ago)
- McKesson, other healthcare strong
- Retail - "Very good tone"
- Housing, Housing-Related - Up 5% (home construction ETF)
- Home Builders ETF - Up 4.7%
- Restaurants - "Everything was up today"
- Hotels - Setting up breakouts
- Transports - Up 3%
- Airlines - Strong day
- Cruise Lines - Strong day
- Economically Sensitive (Non-AI) - Strong day
- Insurance - Strong day
- Other Financials (besides big banks) - Strong day
Gary: "How many times have I been able to say that in the last few months? Never. A strong day in restaurants, strong day in housing, strong day in hotels, strong day in airlines, strong day in cruise lines."
Lagging Sectors 🔴
Tech/AI/Semis - Still Broken:
- NASDAQ - Below 50-day MA
- NASDAQ 100 - Below 50-day MA
- SOX (Semis) - Below 50-day, wild swings (down 190, up 154, finished up 54)
- Semiconductors - "All over the freaking map"
- AI Names - Wild swings
- Crypto - Down despite being oversold
Leading Stocks 🚀
Healthcare/Pharma Leadership:
- Eli Lilly - Went vertical 2-3 weeks ago, started this theme
- Regeneron - Coming up right side
- Amgen (Dow) - Straight up
- Gilead - Near highs
- IDEXX - Up $36 today, near highs (medical equipment)
- Exact Sciences (GH) - Gapped up few weeks ago, wants to move
Retail Breakouts:
- Ross Stores - Up 8% on 2.5x volume, NEW ALL-TIME HIGH on earnings
- Earnings up 7%, revenues up 10% (4 quarters of acceleration)
- Ralph Lauren - On verge of breaking out, "sore thumb"
- Burlington - Watching, one big year of range bounce at $300
- Restoration Hardware - Up $14 to $153 (was $456 ten months ago)
- Home Depot - Up $11 (70 Dow points) but still down $19 for week, down $83 from mid-September
- Target - Up $4 (~5%) to $87 (but was $100 two weeks ago, $145 nine months ago, $269 in 2021 highs)
Hotels Setting Up:
- Hilton - Up $10, building range with pivot above $280
- Hyatt - Up $9 (6%), coming up right side
- Marriott - Up $13 (4.7%), pivot around $300, closed $295
Transports:
- EXPD - Big gap up on earnings (no growth though)
- CHRW - Big gap up, sitting tight few weeks
Restaurants (Bouncing from Destroyed):
- Cava - Up $5 (12%) to $49 on heavy volume (was $153 eleven months ago)
- Restaurant Brands - Strongest (Tim Hortons, Burger King)
Consumer Staples/ADP-Paychecks (Bouncing but Still Bad):
- ADP - Up $4 to $253 (was $330 in June)
- Paychecks - Up $3 to $111 (was $161 in May)
Gary's "Left Screen" (Lesser Tech):
- "Mostly green today" but "flies on an elephant's rear end, as far as the bounces"
Lagging Stocks 📉
Tech Continuing to Break:
- NVIDIA - Down couple bucks despite China news, trading below 50-day MA
- Had $196 open Thursday, closed $180.64
- Wild reversal Thursday one of worst Gary's seen
- Palantir - Down today despite NASDAQ up 195, 207 → 154
- Still $367B market cap on less than $4B revenue (was near $500B)
- Gary compares to Costco warning months ago (1,078 → 900)
- Veeva (VEEV) - Total break on earnings
- Zscaler (ZS) - Broken
- CrowdStrike - Not willing to say broken yet
- Palo Alto Networks - "Gone-er"
- Oracle - Continues to "crash"
- Broadcom, Taiwan Semi - Weak
- SoftBank, Shopify, Snowflake, Credo - Broke down this week
- Lumentum (LITE) - Yesterday $282 open → $233 close ($50 drop), bounced $22 today
Crypto Bear (Despite Oversold):
- Bitcoin, Ethereum, MicroStrategy down today
- "Deeply oversold, ridiculously extended downside, pretty sure going to bounce but in bear market"
Costco:
- 1,078 (ten months ago) → 900 today
- Gary's months-old warning on valuation playing out
Gary's Positioning 💰
- "So happy I was out of those areas coming into those two days" (tech/AI/semis)
- "Psychologically, I don't know what I would have been doing. It's easy when you're outside looking in."
- Watching retail setups (Ross, Ralph Lauren, Burlington)
- Watching hotel setups (Hilton, Marriott)
- Not touching technology "not this second"
- Spending time scanning housing, restaurants, hotels, transports
Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯
THE BIG PIVOT: Gary's tone completely different from Thursday's doom. On Thursday after epic reversal: "Today was not an okay day. Top five on how strong we opened and how weak we closed." On Friday after the broad market rallies hard: "Amazing two days! Best way I can explain it."
Key Principle: "If the worst areas of the market are done going down, it should provide some type of floor." Repeated multiple times.
Gary's New Framework: "In the past, you give me a day like yesterday, and I'm yelling and screaming, oh, this is the start of, and look out, and look out below. What did we say yesterday? I have no clue what tomorrow does. Because for whatever reason, we know the big trends, but in the short term, we have seen so many things that are cockamamie in the markets where you would guarantee to yourself, and the opposite happens."
Cautious Optimism: "I am agnostic right now on what comes of this. But I am more impressed today than other days that were pretty good." "We've had good days in the broad market before and they got fritted away pretty quickly."
What Changed: The areas Gary's been warning about for MONTHS (retail, housing, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, transports, insurance, consumer staples, economically sensitive non-AI) all had strong days. "A day after the market got trashed, on a gargantuan reversal to the downside, and the next day, the broad market gives it the middle finger and goes right up again."
Key Observations 💡
"If the Worst Is Over" - Gary's Repeated Theme:
- "If the worst stuff stops going down, typically we'll put a floor under the market"
- "If a weak group's worst is over, and is no longer an anchor on the market, that helps the market"
- "If the worst is over for the areas that have been the weakest, it usually means the floor can be picked up"
- Said this multiple times throughout show
The Downtrend Check:
- "I've yet to fully scan. And I do not think they've come out of their downtrends yet."
- "I am not sure they broke downtrends. And I'm not sure they're the lows."
- "But I'm very impressed with today. The broader market."
- Will scan over weekend to see if downtrends broken
Why Gary's Not Predicting:
- Thursday's reversal was "one of the worst outside reversal days we have seen on record"
- Normally that means lower prices coming
- "We didn't say that because the markets have just been so weird for years"
- "I have no clue what happens Monday. I don't even want to pretend to know because it was crazy two days"
Ross Stores Details:
- Earnings up 7%, revenues up 10%
- 4 quarters of revenue acceleration (this is key)
- New all-time high on 2.5x volume
- One of the few making new highs
Burlington Setup:
- One year of range bouncing at $300
- "If it does [break above $300], it could be of import"
Hotel Setups:
- Hilton: Pivot above $280, break would be "strong breakout"
- Marriott: Pivot around $300, closed $295
Dow Context:
- Dropped 48,431 → 45,752 in 6 days (2,700 points)
- Bounced 493 Friday
- "Normal bounce" after oversold drop
Gary's "Left Screen" (Lesser Tech):
- "Mostly green today"
- "I've yet to go through them. Don't know what I'll find. Yeah, I take that back. Pretty sure I'll know what I'll find. We'll find flies on an elephant's rear end, as far as the bounces."
- "But we want to get a feel, is the worst stuff not going down anymore?"
President Trump Commentary:
- Press conference with NYC mayoral candidate: "This turd, this racist, anti-Semitic, Jew hater, Israel hater, communist. He was just being too nice."
- Candidate called Trump "an effing fascist last week"
- Trump: "Oh, I've been called worse"
- Gary: "If I'm president, I call it as it is"
Crypto Context:
- "We get more questions on, should I be buying Bitcoin? Something that has no revenues, no earnings, no product, no sales, no office"
- MicroStrategy: "His fantastic idea in life, yeah, you invest with me and I'll buy some Bitcoin and leverage it"
- "We get more questions on that than Walmart. Welcome to the world."
Restaurant Brands Note:
- Owns Tim Hortons and Burger King
- Gary in Nova Scotia playing golf: "I don't think I've ever been to Tim Hortons. I went into Tim Hortons, boy, they got some good stuff in there."
- "Burger King has much better hamburgers than McDonald's. Love their onion rings."
Short Week Ahead:
- Next week only 3.5 days (Thanksgiving)
- Gary's Thanksgiving message: "Think about doing something for somebody you need absolutely nothing from. If you know a family that can't afford, maybe get them a turkey dinner."
The Two-Day Summary:
- Thursday: NVIDIA accounts receivable spike, $1,070 point NASDAQ swing, epic reversal, top 5 worst Gary's seen
- Friday: Broad market gives "middle finger" to tech crash, worst areas rally hard, tech stays broken below 50-day
- Gary: "Amazing two days in my world"
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