GOAL-LINE STAND

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

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📅 Friday, November 14, 2025

"GOAL-LINE STAND" - 50-Day Defended, NVIDIA $9.50 Reversal

Market Action

• Dow: -300 points
• NASDAQ: Down 464 points at open (22,436), finished UP 30 (22,900)
• NASDAQ 100: Down 460 points at open (24,534), finished UP 14 (25,008)
• SOX (Semis): Hit 65.87 (below 50-day of 66.39), closed 68.11 (defended!)
• NVIDIA: Low 180.58 (down $9.50), closed 190.17 (UP $3.31) - $13 reversal!

THE DEFENSE: Gary's technical masterclass on the 50-day moving average. After yesterday's horrible drop, the NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100/Semis all undercut their 50-day MAs in early trading, then REVERSED and closed above them. "The big guns were out there. They were in recognition." Gary calls it a "goal-line stand."

50-Day Levels Defended:

• NASDAQ 50-day: 22,835 (closed 22,900 = 65 points above)
• NASDAQ 100 50-day: ~24,500 (closed 25,008)
• SOX 50-day: 66.39 (closed 68.11)
• NVIDIA: Defended again (did same thing last week)

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Semiconductors - Led the defense, closed strong
2. AI/Tech - Reversed sharply from morning lows
3. NVIDIA - Most important stock, $13 reversal from lows

Lagging Sectors 🔴

1. Banks - Goldman -$14, JPM -$6 ("that's a home")
2. Payments - MasterCard and Visa "really breaking down now"
3. Bitcoin/Crypto - Continuing collapse (see below)

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winner:

• Sedara Therapeutics - Merck acquiring for $9.2B cash ($221.50/share), stock +105% to $217.67
  • Gary's caveat: "No sales for 10 years. Phase 3 flu drug. We didn't own it."
  • His point: "There IS that other side of us saying we're not going to buy no-sales stuff"

The Reversal Heroes:

• NVIDIA - Low $180.58, closed $190.17 (+$3.31) = $13 swing, defended 50-day AGAIN
• Semiconductors - All reversed hard, closed strong above 50-day
• NASDAQ Stocks - Many reversed sharply from morning carnage

Lagging Stocks 📉

Bitcoin/MicroStrategy Crisis:

• Bitcoin - Down 24-25% from highs (124,310 → 94,358 currently)
  • High 5 weeks ago: 72, now 53
• MicroStrategy (MSTR/Strategy) - Down 65% from highs
  • July high: $457
  • Last November high: $543
  • Current: Under $200
  • Gary: "People calling what Saylor's doing a scheme. Leveraged to the hilt in one asset."
  • Concerns: Forced selling due to leverage (like 2008 mortgage crisis)
  • "When you are leveraged at 10 and 20 to one, that guaranteed bankruptcy"

Banks/Payments Breaking:

• Goldman Sachs - -$14
• JP Morgan - -$6
• MasterCard - Breaking down
• Visa - Breaking down
• Oracle - Dropped 322.5 → 210 in 5 weeks (bear market), bounced at 200-day today

Still Broken:

• Dozens of stocks - "Living below the 50-day moving average now"
• Gary: "Drops take pretenders or lessers off the table"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Shopify (SHOP): Saw CEO present at Barron Capital conference in NYC - "guy was terrific, fantastic presentation"
  • Not advocating buy/sell, does not own currently
  • "Very impressed, gonna do a lot more research"
  • Stock just back to late 2021 highs
• Watching 50-day defenses closely
• "We deal in real time. A great defense today."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary's 50-day moving average masterclass: In bull markets, the 50-day consistently gets defended. The longer it holds and more times it's tested successfully, "the end problem is it conditions the masses that the next time it's gonna succeed again. But if the next time it breaks, the masses are not ready and do not believe and they get caught. We don't because we recognize that other part of the equation." Today was a "goal-line stand" - the big indices have NOT closed below 50-day since late April. But Gary warns: "We've now started to test them a little longer, a few more times, and eventually we'll get late stage, finally break it, we'll recognize it, the masses will not."

Key Observations 💡

• 50-Day Moving Average Tutorial: Gary's detailed explanation of how institutions defend it in bull markets until late stage when it finally breaks
• The Undercut Pattern: "Very often what happens is what is known as an undercut. The undercut happens early" - institutions let it dip below then buy aggressively
• NVIDIA Double Defense: Did exact same reversal pattern last week - most important tell
• Goal-Line Stand: "When I sent out my notes this morning, I stated look at this, look at that... But we are gonna need a goal-line stand right here, and you got one today"
• Merck's $9.2B Bet: Buying 10-year-old company with zero sales for phase 3 flu drug - shows other side of no-sales avoidance
• MicroStrategy Leverage Bomb: Down 65% while Bitcoin only down 24% - "scheme" concerns, forced selling worries
• Since Late April: Not ONE day with close below 50-day for big indices
• The Conditioning: "The masses today, sigh of relief, a big sigh of relief in the market"
• 200-Day Significance: Oracle hit it today within $1, bounced $12 (but still bear market bounce)
• "They Cannot Time Markets": Gary: "That's because they never tried, because you have to work at it"