📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

📅 Monday, November 24, 2025

"GRABBING VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT" - NASDAQ Up 598, Only 270 Points From Thursday's High

Market Action

NASDAQ: Up 598 points (6.8% vs Dow's 0.4%) - "one-note move"
NASDAQ Status: Now only 270 points below Thursday's reversal high of 23,147
Dow: Up 200 points (0.4%) - mostly Goldman Sachs
SOX (Semis): Up $2.96 to $67.33
- Thursday high: $68.82
- Friday low: $61.60
- Today close: $67.33
- 10% bounce in 2 days from Friday low
Opened NASDAQ up 390, finished up 598
Bitcoin: Bounced from "very, very extended and stretched conditions"

Gary's Reaction: "I am wildly surprised by today. Massively surprised by today. I expected bounces this week. I did not expect 600 points on the NASDAQ today. Completely forgetting Thursday."

Trump News: "Spoke to China. We're having a meeting. We're going to drop this tariff. We expect an explosion in the economy." Gary: "Don't care."

Leading Sectors 🟢

THE ONE NOTE - Tech/AI/Semis ROARED BACK:

Semiconductors - Up big, 10% bounce in 2 days
Big Tech/Mega Caps - Led the charge
AI Names - Strongest bounce

Gary: "I'm not going to say today was a one-note move, but the big moves were saved for the one note."

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Everything Else - Same Stuff:

Most Retail (except Ralph Lauren)
Housing
Insurance
Restaurants
Economically Sensitive (Non-AI)
Financials (bunch of them)
ADP/Paychecks

Gary: "Usual weakness today. Same stuff. Remember, we told you a lot of stocks went by the wayside. Broke the 50-day moving average, and only until they get back above that are they in any consideration. A bunch of them bounced today, did not get back above."

Leading Stocks 🚀

The Two Strongest Names:

LITE (Lumentum) - Up 17%, finished ~$300
- Closed Friday: $256
- Hit $289 in third bar of morning
- Gary's tracking: "274→215, 282→229, back to 300 in a few days"
Google - "The other strongest. The number one mega cap stock by far now."

Other Big Movers:

Broadcom - Back to $377
- Thursday: 376→345
- Friday low: $332
- Today: $377 (fully recovered and more)
MicroStrategy - Up $8 (because Bitcoin up)
Ralph Lauren - Only retail strength

Lagging Stocks 📉

Not Bouncing Despite Market Rally:

Oracle - 345→200, "not bouncing"
CoreWeave - 187→173
MicroStrategy - 457→179 (despite today's $8 bounce)
- Bitcoin only down 25%, MicroStrategy down 61%

Stocks Below 50-Day:

"A bunch bounced today, did not get back above"

Gary's Positioning 💰

Has cold/flu (not COVID, no fever)
"So happy I was out of those areas coming into those two days" (from Friday)
Watching carefully
Surprised by magnitude of bounce

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

GARY'S CRITICAL LEARNING - WHY HE DIDN'T CALL THE TOP:

"On Thursday, in years past, normally, I would have come out and said to you, this market has topped. That's what I would have normally did."

Why Thursday Looked Like "One of the Great Tops":

NVIDIA (most important stock) got smoked on earnings
NASDAQ reversed 1,100 points (23,147→22,043)
Heavy volume (institutional selling)
"They got the pretty girls" - tanked the leading stocks
60-70% of market already in bear phases

But Gary Held His Words: "Instead, on Thursday, we said to you, I have no clue what tomorrow brings. Because until we are fully topped, this market has had its way of grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat."

"When I look back to Thursday, it looks like one of the great tops I have ever seen... And I must tell you, we had to hold our breath. We had to hold our words, because as I went to sleep that night, I'm thinking, holy crap."

The Lesson: "I've seen this before, and I'm going to be careful with my verbiage going forward until things are really dead."

Support Level Identified - The Line in Sand:

NASDAQ ~22,000-22,200 = support zone
October 10 close: 22,193 (Trump tariff day)
September 25 low: 22,185
September 17 low: 22,058
Friday undercut by ~100 points, then rallied back

Gary: "We're drawing the line. $22,000 a little bit more. There's your support. And I'm pretty sure that's what's going on here."

Coast to Coast Sentiment: "After a nauseating high-volume reversal dropped, we've gone coast to coast in sentiment on the stuff that was leading. They went from crumbling them, 20 to 30 percent drops. By the way, I saw a couple down 35 in days. As you wonder, what's with that?"

The Bounce Setup:

"Shortened holiday week" - seasonal strength
"Quite oversold"
"Fear and greed measurements, a lot of fear"

Questions Gary's Getting: "I'm already getting emails. What? Tribe moves like this? Answer. Donut? Gary, you always talk about institutions and positioning and getting out... But now they're in there buying today. How does that happen? Donut?"

AI Bubble Questions:

"Gary, they're telling me the AI bubble has burst. We'll see."
"People all over social media are saying it's a con. The accounting's bad. We'll find out."
Gary: "When we read something on air, they're facts, not opinion. The facts are massive amount of debt to pay for all this."

Examples of Debt Problems:

Oracle: 345→200 (debt issues)
CoreWeave: 187→173 (debt issues)
MicroStrategy: 457→179 (leverage scheme)

Key Observations 💡

Why Friday's Broad Market Rally Was Just Bounces: "What happened on Friday, the broad market out of nowhere woke up. What's with that? But as I scanned the broad market over the weekend, it was just stocks that are just way down in their bearish phases bouncing."

The Abnormal Swings:

LITE: 274→215→282→229→300 in days
Broadcom: 376→345→332→377 in 3 days
Gary: "I'd like to say this is abnormal, and yeah, I would say coast to coast is, but I've seen this before"

The One-Note Nature:

NASDAQ up 6x more than Dow percentage-wise
"Big moves were saved for the one note"
Everything else "usual weakness"

50-Day Moving Average Key:

Many stocks broke 50-day
"Only until they get back above that are they in any consideration"
Today many bounced but "did not get back above"

Bond Market Still Cooperating:

10-year yield: 4.038
"Bond markets still cooperating"
Fed likely cutting quarter point in December

Debt Reality:

"$6 billion a day of debt"
6 billion x 365 = $2.19 trillion/year
Gary: "They hate us. We're just marks for their con. Both parties, including this one."

DOGE Shutdown:

Gary was excited about DOGE cutting spending
"You know what they realized? If we cut government spending, it hurts GDP. And since we spend so much, we can't do that. Screw it. Let's run the debt and deficits."

Trump Tariff Claims:

Trump: "The tariffs have brought in so much money from other countries"
Gary: "Stop, we're not idiots"

Economic Forecasts:

"He's got everybody else saying, oh, the economy is going to be monstrous next year"
Gary: "If it is, it's because of us. We're good."

Gary's Health:

Has cold/flu all weekend
"When I get sick, I get sick"
Not COVID, no fever, doesn't think it's flu

The Pattern Recognition: Gary comparing this to past market tops where it LOOKED like the top, but the market came back. He's learned not to call tops until they're "fully topped and gone" because "this market has had its way of grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat."

This is why he's being very careful with his words despite Thursday looking like "one of the great tops I have ever seen."

BamaTrades

Monday, November 24, 2025

GRABBING VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT