"STUNNED BY THE TENACITY OF THE SELLERS" - Software Day 7 Red, Crypto Nearing 50% Drop
Note: Gary pre-taped at 1:17pm Florida time due to travel - didn't see final close
Market at 2pm (When Gary Finished)
- Dow: -574 | NASDAQ: -333
- NASDAQ: Below 50-day MA
- NASDAQ 100: Below 50-day MA
- S&P: "Wee bit below" 50-day
- 453 NEW LOWS on NASDAQ - "That's a big wow"
💀 SOFTWARE - DAY 7 OF RED, NO BOUNCE
Gary: "I AM STUNNED"
"For the record, I am surprised, big time surprised, it has not bounced. I would have figured any day now it would bounce. That's the normal course of business in the market. Drop three up one, drop five up two. We're talking bearish phase. No, it just goes lower and lower and lower."
"We are now in the midst of three, four, seven straight days of red in software. While many say, don't worry, we say worry."
"Even we are stunned. We're absolutely stunned by the tenacity of the sellers. That even at these prices, their selling has not been sated."
Today's Carnage:
- Microsoft: Down another $13 (downgraded today - analyst waited from $555 down to $412 to downgrade - "that's like blasphemy")
- Since earnings: $480 → $400 = 17% in short time
- Oracle: Down another $8
- Total: $345 → $138
- Last 3 weeks alone: Down 30%
- Gary: "Holy crap, holy crap"
- Salesforce: Down another $9
- Adobe: Down another $10 - "Holy crap"
- Palantir: Gapped up on earnings, $165 → $130 in TWO DAYS
IGV ETF:
- $118 → $81
- That's $37 on $118 = 34-35% drop
- "That's a basket of a bunch that are down that much"
Gary's Left Screen: "A sea of red in software stocks... full of what we call lesser tech. Things that have broke down a while back and just keep going lower and lower."
Names: Workday, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake, Zscaler, Datadog, Palantir
NVIDIA CEO Weighs In: "Head of Nvidia came out and said, do not worry, software will not be affected. Well, if we got a conversation with him, we would say to him respectfully, yeah, tell that to the market."
Gary's Stance: "Continue to avoid software until we say otherwise."
"The only good news I can tell you is everybody's now reporting the software bear market. And sometimes when everybody starts reporting it, it's closer to the carnage stopping. It ain't stopping today."
"We have been on a void on software stocks... since early November with you guys and we hope you listened, little did I know the destruction."
💰 CRYPTO - NEARING 50% DROP, MICROSTRATEGY IMPLOSION
Bitcoin:
- Now: $66,000 (down from $125k)
- Gary: "You are nearing a 50% drop in Bitcoin"
- Woman's $1.5M by 2030 call now needs 24-fold increase (was 20-fold yesterday)
IBIT (Bitcoin ETF Proxy):
- Now: $37
- Breakdown level was $60
- 50-day break was at $66
- Went from $46.68 to $37.15 in FOUR DAYS
Gary: "We were 100% correct that the technical part of even this works wonders, works wonders."
MicroStrategy:
- Down another $19 to $110
- July high: $457
- Total drop: 75%+
GARY'S BIG CONCERN - Could This Upend the Market?
"This MicroStrategy, which is now called Strategy, I was just wondering, could it upend the market as a whole if it continues to implode? Because this Strategy company is major league leveraged on this."
"I do believe a ton of people followed the president into crypto, or Bitcoin and Ethereum, because he is the Bitcoin and Ethereum president. Which, by the way, will cost votes if this continues."
"I'm wondering if this could be a seminal moment because of this... it's not a dumb thing to wonder, because this has lost a lot of equity, a lot of capital."
"I think part of it is that micro-strategy leverage may be coming undone."
Other Coins:
- Ethereum and other coins: Down 70, 80, and 90%
- Meme coins: Down 90-99%
The Touts: "You do have a bunch of miserable cretins that continue to come out and tout, oh, it's gone to a million, it's gone a million and a half, it's 13 million. Well, it's now 66,000."
"Please listen to us, do not listen to her or them. Funds are being mutilated again."
📊 INDIVIDUAL EARNINGS - META & GOOGLE DEFEND 50-DAY
Google/Alphabet: DEFENDED
- Earnings: Down $26 on open to $306
- Recovered: Only down $8 at 1:30pm
- Holding just above important 50-day MA
Gary: "It has got defended today from a really bad open... I don't even rationalize why they opened it bad or why they're buying it up. All I care about is outcome. So that's good news for Google."
Meta: DEFENDED AT 50-DAY
- Two weeks ago: Gapped up on earnings $669 → $738 close
- This morning: Dropped to $653 (below report day!)
- 50-day MA: $655.38
- Opened: $653.50 (couple bucks below)
- Within a minute: Back above
- Result: UP $10 on very down day
Gary: "I'm gonna be paying attention to Meta at the 50-day... them defending, 50-day moving average... opened just a couple of bucks below. And within a minute, was right back above."
Other Movers:
- Qualcomm: Down another $11 - "in a bear market, I'll leave it at that"
- Estee Lauder: Down $25 (21%) to $94.50 - "been a shit name"
- Ralph Lauren: Similar carnage on earnings
- McKesson (wholesale drugs): Up $135 to $957 on 1% guidance raise - "God bless it"
- Hershey's: Up $17 to new high on 36% earnings DROP (beat by 31c, raised guidance) - "It's the chocolate thing"
- SITime (semiconductor): Up $55 on earnings
- Cummins: Down $60 to $546
- Form Factor (semiconductor): Up 15%
- Cardinal Health: Up $18 (generic pharma theme)
🥇 GOLD/SILVER - WILD BACKING & FILLING
Status: Called climactic top Friday, now in backing/filling phase
Today's Move:
- Silver: Down 12%
- Gold: Down 1.6%
- "Silver is a higher beta metal - it'll move a lot more percentage-wise up and down versus gold"
Gary's Call: "We specifically told you... it felt and looked like a climactic top in gold and silver... We then told you after the two-day drop to expect some wild backing and filling."
"And what that means is one day you're gonna gap up, next day you're gonna gap down. Gap up, gap down, but futz around."
Levels to Watch:
- GLD needs to jump above $463
- SLV needs $83 (currently $69 - "it's a little bit away")
Bulls Saying Buy: "I heard some gold and silver bulls out saying just buy it, this is an opportunity. Well, they could be right... I'm just letting you know, my interpretation, I'm gonna guess you may have some time before you have to jump on the bandwagon again."
"We do think probably they get going again, but certainly isn't happening right now."
🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - THE HOPE
Status: "A lot of green" while market crashing
Gary: "If we're gonna come out of this, I think the semis will continue to lead. And that's what I am gonna be concentrating on once we come out of it."
The Warning: "If they come after the semis, then we may be talking some trouble. Some real trouble that we already have at this juncture."
🛡️ DEFENSIVE FLIGHT - HISTORIC DIVERGENCE
New Yearly Highs:
- Pepsi, Coke, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Amgen (in Dow)
- Hershey's
- All "very low beta"
Gary: "When you have Coke and Hershey's at New Yearly highs and Oracle and Microsoft at New Yearly lows, something up."
"It's a lower beta environment."
📉 DOW COMPONENTS (At 2pm)
- Goldman: -$19
- Amazon: -$9 (reports after close)
- Salesforce: -$9
- Caterpillar: -$12 ("pretty much an AI name at this juncture")
- Microsoft: -$12
- UnitedHealth: -$7 ("holy smokes")
⚠️ GARY'S ASSESSMENT
On Software: "We really hope you've been listening. Our avoids that we have given you have been fantastic. Just between the coins and the software. If you laid off of those areas, you are saving a bundle."
"Not to mention the private equity companies like KKR and Blackstone."
On Market Structure: "Wish we had better news for you, but hey, we just report, interpret, and see how it goes. It's just, ain't no hill for a climber right now when it comes to markets."
On His Positioning: Still holding defensive issues, watching semis to lead out
On Crypto Woman: "We take on nobody in this industry ever except her because she parades herself like this gargantuan guru even though her main fund is down in the 50s from five years ago."
🏈 GARY'S SUPER BOWL PICK
Record: 9-1 in playoffs
Super Bowl Pick: Seattle Moneyline
- "Beastie defense"
- "As long as Darnold don't do crazy things"
- Giving 4.5 points (taking Moneyline to avoid garbage TD)
Gary's Key Quotes
On Software Carnage: "Even we are stunned. We're absolutely stunned by the tenacity of the sellers."
"Seven straight days of red in software... No, it just goes lower and lower and lower."
On MicroStrategy: "Could it upend the market as a whole if it continues to implode? Because this Strategy company is major league leveraged."
On Bitcoin: "You are nearing a 50% drop in Bitcoin."
"We were 100% correct that the technical part of even this works wonders."
On Crypto Touts: "You do have a bunch of miserable cretins that continue to tout... Well, it's now 66,000."
On Meta/Google: "All I care about is outcome. So that's good news for Google."
"Meta... them defending 50-day moving average... opened just a couple of bucks below. And within a minute, was right back above."
On Market Divergence: "When you have Coke and Hershey's at New Yearly highs and Oracle and Microsoft at New Yearly lows, something up."
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