"PAPER-THIN TRADING" - Wild Swings, AI Curse Spreading, "WHAT'S NEXT?"
🎢 Market Action - "Weirdest, Wicked Day"
NASDAQ's Insane Day:
- Opened: Down 180
- 15 min later: Even
- 15 min later: Down 300
- Then: Rallied 320 (by 11:30am)
- Then: Dropped 150 (by 12:50pm)
- Then: Rallied 270 (by 2:45pm)
- 3:59pm: Dropped 140
- Last minute: Rallied 35
- Finished: UP 31
Gary: "I saw 100-point moves in a second. And 10 seconds later, back down 100 or up 100."
DOW's Wild Ride:
- Pre-market: Down
- 10 min later: Up 200
- Then: Dropped 570 points (by 10:30am)
- Then: Rallied 480 points in half hour
- Then: Dropped 300 in another hour
- Then: Rallied 350 in 20 minutes
- Finished: UP 32
Gary: "No, really. That was today."
"I don't know what causes paper-thin trading, but we had one of those today."
Status:
- NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Still below 50-day MA, in 7-8% range
- S&P: Below 50-day
- Dow: Little bit above 50-day
- Small/Mid Caps: A little better
- Advance/Declines: Horrible early, finished flat (2-1 negative on NASDAQ)
🥇 GOLD/SILVER - "ABSOLUTELY COMING TO FRUITION"
Gary's Validation:
"I know you're gold bugs and everything, but they're doing what I thought."
SILVER - Climactic Move Confirmed:
- Two-day drop: $110 → $70 (finished $74)
- "Anemic bounce"
- Now: $66
- Gary: "Feels climactic. And what that means. Typically, that high ain't getting taken over for a very long time. And, in fact, may not even get close."
Where This Comes From: "Just the study of climactic moves. Nothing's 100%. But I think what we said to you at the end of those two days is absolutely coming to fruition."
GOLD - Same Pattern:
- Two-day drop: $510 → $422
- Bounced to: ~$467
- Today: Down $14
- Gary: "I suspect you got a bunch of time and price, which means it's going to be hanging around for a while. Good day, bad day. Good day, bad day."
Gold Miners:
- GDX (gold miners): "Acting better than the metal"
- Gary: "That should give a little bit of, hmm, okay, we'll see"
Gary's Stance: "I wouldn't be putting any new commitments to either at this juncture. If you own it a lot lower, I think it's a hold."
"Silver, I'm not so sure. And, actually, I'm a little surprised about how weak silver has got. That I'm quite surprised."
🍎 APPLE - "SWINGING LIKE A PENNY STOCK"
The Carnage:
- 4 days ago: "Teasing area of resistance"
- Thursday/Friday last week: Dropped $20
- Today: Up $8 (was up $10)
Gary's Description:
"Apple's swinging like a penny stock now. I can't even begin to describe it."
"Take your three-year-old, put a crayon in his hand, and have him draw. That's what Apple looks like."
"To describe Apple dropping $20 is like saying Disney dropping $40."
The AI BS: "I saw Apple made some BS announcement today. Wearables with some AI."
"Remember what we told you a long while ago? Be wary of companies just announcing AI this, that, and the other thing. Be wary. Even Apple."
"They didn't need to say AI in there, but they did. They probably saw that their stock was down $20... Wouldn't it be put past Apple to try to goose their stock?"
APPLE BUYBACK FACT: "Apple has bought back $727 billion of their stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 488 companies in the S&P 500 today."
🚨 AI CURSE - SPREADING & INTENSIFYING
Gary's Big Question: "WHAT CAN BE NEXT?"
"It has me really asking, what can be next?"
"Who's next? And you sit there and contemplate, what else?"
"We are staying on our toes. We're trying to flush out everything because we don't know."
💼 BROKERAGES - STILL NOT BOUNCING
The Continuing Carnage:
- LPL Financial: Down another $12 today | 5-day move: $400 → $322
- Ameriprise: Down $5 today | 5-day move: $550 → $468
- Charles Schwab: 5-day move: $108 → $93
- Raymond James: 5-day move: $175 → $158 (only 10% - "actually a decent one")
- Stifel: Also down again
Gary: "They're not bouncing the brokers... They were crushed on some artificial intelligence something or other... Not much good there."
Private Equity:
- KKR, Apollo, Evercore: "Not in good shape at all... They're just not acting well"
Gary: "Normally, if I just look at those, I'd say, damn, we're in a bear market. But we're not. At least for the indices."
🏦 BANKS - BOUNCED TODAY
JP Morgan:
- 4-day drop: $326 → $296
- Friday finish: $302
- Today: Up $4
Goldman Sachs:
- Drop: $968 → $869 (almost 100 points = 650 Dow points)
- Friday: Finished up $36 off lows
- Today: Up $11
Status: "All of them are either below resistance and the 50-day moving average or in absolute no man's land right now."
Gary: "They were acting pretty decent. They were acting pretty decent."
🚚 TRUCKERS/LOGISTICS - SLAMMED ON AI
The 30-Minute Crash:
Gary: "C.H. Robinson went from 194 to 156 in 30 minutes."
"I did not see the truckers move down until they were already down a bunch. The truckers slash logistic companies were acting very bullishly and out of nowhere crammed."
After Bouncing:
- Landstar: High $165 → still $144
- C.H. Robinson: High $205 → still $177
- Expeditors: $167 → $147
Gary: "If they just keep doing their numbers and keep doing their business and ignore all this crap and do good numbers and AI is not going to be meaningful, all these stocks are going back to where they were. But in the near term, holy moly. Wicked, to say the least."
💀 INTUIT - DESTROYED DESPITE IDEAL NUMBERS
The Shocking Example:
Earnings: Up 34%
Revenue: Up 18%
Prior Quarter: Earnings up 38%, Revenue up 20%
Gary: "Those are ideal numbers."
Stock Performance:
- $813 → $378
- Recent 5-week drop: $600 → $378
Gary: "And everybody's saying, oh, their business is screwed. And I'm like, what?"
"You know what Intuit does, right? It's tax and financial software."
📉 CONSULTING - GETTING HAMMERED
ACCENTURE:
- $291 → $220
BOOZ ALLEN:
- $109 → $76
- Gary: "And by the way, they were already way off the highs"
Gary: "It is, to say the very least, humbling to see these companies getting blown up."
🏠 ZILLOW - 50%+ DROP DESPITE GREAT EARNINGS
The Numbers:
- Earnings: Up 44%
- Revenue: Up 18%
Stock Performance:
- $70 → $44 in 2 weeks
- Down from $94 in September
- Total drop: More than 50%
Gary: "What are they saying about Zillow? Oh, artificial intelligence is going to take that over. Really?"
"Let me repeat. It just went from 70 to 44 in two weeks."
💻 SOFTWARE - CONTINUING TO GET CRUSHED
Today's Moves:
- Microsoft: Down another $5
- Oracle: Down another $6
- Salesforce: Down another $5
- Adobe: Down $4
Gary: "These are not fly-by-nights. It's humbling."
"I didn't even mention the software stocks yet."
🚗 TESLA - ROBO-TAXI TROUBLES
The News:
- 5 new robo-taxi crashes in Austin, Texas
- Total: 14 crashes
- "Quietly announced"
Gary: "Anybody who's bullish on Tesla and gets put in front of you, doesn't even mention cars anymore. They mention robo-taxis and some other stuff."
"There's some big bets based on valuations for Tesla. I wouldn't bet against them. I wouldn't bet against the guy."
SpaceX/Starlink IPO Coming:
- "That'll be an IPO"
- "Fabulous internet"
Elon's Other Ventures:
- The Boring Corp: Tunnels
- Got contract for Universal Studios in Central Florida
Gary: "This guy is the, I don't know, the Thomas Edison of our days."
"My big thing is what am I eating for dinner tonight? And this guy now is building tunnels. Amazing. Just absolutely amazing."
💻 IBM - GETTING HAMMERED
The Question: "IBM's getting hammered. Is that artificial intelligence also?"
"We're asking all these questions because they're as valid as valid can be. We're not seeing any other news for IBM to get smashed."
"And we're asking, what else?"
Gary's Key Quotes
On Trading: "I don't know what causes paper-thin trading, but we had one of those today."
"I saw 100-point moves in a second."
"The weirdest, wicked day."
On Gold/Silver: "They're doing what I thought."
"Typically, that high ain't getting taken over for a very long time. And, in fact, may not even get close."
"What we said to you at the end of those two days is absolutely coming to fruition."
On Apple: "Apple's swinging like a penny stock now."
"Take your three-year-old, put a crayon in his hand, and have him draw. That's what Apple looks like."
On AI Announcements: "Be wary of companies just announcing AI this, that, and the other thing. Even Apple."
On The AI Curse: "What can be next?"
"Who's next?"
"We are staying on our toes. We're trying to flush out everything because we don't know."
On Intuit: "Those are ideal numbers... And everybody's saying, oh, their business is screwed. And I'm like, what?"
On The Carnage: "It is, to say the very least, humbling to see these companies getting blown up."
"These are not fly-by-nights. It's humbling."
On Market vs. Stocks: "Normally, if I just look at those, I'd say, damn, we're in a bear market. But we're not. At least for the indices."
Bottom Line
Paper-Thin Trading: Wild 500-600 point swings in minutes on both Dow and NASDAQ. Gary has no idea what caused it - no major news.
Gold/Silver Climactic Call: Gary's prediction from two weeks ago is "absolutely coming to fruition." Silver especially weak ($110 → $66), "that high ain't getting taken over for a very long time." Gold holding better. Neither a buy, silver especially concerning.
Apple: "Swinging like a penny stock" - down $20 in 2 days, up $8 today. Chart "looks like a three-year-old drew it with a crayon." Made BS AI wearables announcement to goose stock.
AI Curse Spreading: Gary intensely asking "what's next?" The pattern:
- Intuit: Ideal earnings (up 34%/18%) → stock $813 → $378
- Zillow: Earnings up 44% → stock $70 → $44 in 2 weeks (50%+ total drop)
- Consulting: Accenture, Booz Allen crushed
- Truckers: CH Robinson $194 → $156 in 30 minutes
- Brokerages: Still not bouncing (LPL, Ameriprise, Schwab all down again)
- Software: Continuing carnage (Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Adobe all down again)
- IBM: Getting hammered
Gary's Humility: "It is, to say the very least, humbling to see these companies getting blown up." He's genuinely uncertain what industry is next. Staying on toes, trying to flush out everything.
Key Concern: When looking at brokerages/private equity, "I'd say damn, we're in a bear market. But we're not. At least for the indices." Massive divergence between individual stocks and indices.
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