BamaTrades: Wild Week In Review

"WILD WEEK IN REVIEW" - Mag 7/8 Now Headwinds, Industrial Age, Money Flows to Terrible Earnings

🎢 Market Action - "Sheer Insanity"

Today's Wild Swings:

Dow: Down 370 on open → Up 300 → Finished +48
Goldman Sachs alone: Down $33 on open → Finished +59 cents = 215 Dow point swing
NASDAQ: Down 195 near open → Rallied 296 points in half hour → Finished -50
Gary: "Just your average 700, 800 point swing in a day"

Week Performance:

NASDAQ: -2.1%
NASDAQ 100: -1.37%
Dow: -1.3%
S&P: -1.4%
Russell 2000: -1.5%

Gary: "The week was just sheer insanity. That's how I can put it."

🚨 AI DISRUPTION - "WHAT POSSIBLY CAN BE NEXT?"

The Karaoke Machine Story:

Gary: "We're finding out that the transports got squashed by a company who's famous for one thing, a karaoke machine. No, I'm not making it up."

"They put out something about artificial intelligence and this, that, and the other thing, and they squashed it."

"Now, everybody's reporting, this is ridiculous. This is nothing. It's a karaoke machine company. Okay."

Transport Carnage (This Week):

CH Robinson Worldwide: Down 12%
Expeditors: Down 11%
Landstar: Down 12%
Schwab: Down 11%

Gary: "Beats the heck out of me... I could have owned those transport names. I would have been stopped out on those transport names... because we don't know what's behind the door."

Industries Already Hit:

Insurance ✓
Brokerage ✓
Software ✓ (last week, -20%)
Transports ✓
Consulting companies ✓

Gary's Question: "What possibly can be next? What possibly can be next? I hope nothing."

"What they are saying is, all this advancements in artificial intelligence is wreaking havoc or will wreak havoc in these industries. I can safely tell you and honestly tell you, I don't have a clue."

💀 MAG 7/8 - "NOW THE HEADWINDS"

Gary's Big Framing:

"These names have such influence over the big indices. They, instead of being the tail winds, they are the headwinds."

"They're gargantuan influence, meaning they're in the thirties of the S&P and in the sixties of the NASDAQ 100."

"This is not something that came out of nowhere. Not something that came out of nowhere. It's been going on for a while."

The Complete Carnage:

APPLE:

Down $20 in 2 days
Trading below September levels
Up only 2% in one year
Broke 50-day yesterday with volume
Gary: "One of the big lagging techs"

NVIDIA:

Done nothing since August
Oct high: $212
Now: $182 (down $4 today)
Below 50-day, "purely in range bound action"

BROADCOM:

Nov top: $414
Now: $325
Can't get back above 50-day MA

AMAZON:

9 days ago: $248
Now: $199
High: $258
Gary: "You have to go back to September of 24. Stock has done nothing"

GOOGLE:

Was "acting great. Not anymore"
$349 → $306 (13-15% drop)
Broke 50-day MA, "not great shape"

MICROSOFT:

$553 → $401
Gap down on earnings

META:

Aug top: $796
Now: $639
Down 20%+
Gary: "Not the biggest drop, but it ain't helping"

TESLA:

Dec top: $499
Now: $420
Down 17%, "weak"

NETFLIX:

$134 → $77
Gary: "Brutal bear market for the stock... 40 some odd percent"

ORACLE:

$345 → $160

QUALCOMM:

$206 → $140

Only Strong Big Name:

Costco - "little oomph"
But: Trading at 55 times earnings - "calls into question how far that's going to go"

The ETF:

MAGS (Mag 7 ETF): "Big top in place down to 200-day MA"

🥇 GOLD/SILVER - After the Climactic Drop

Gold - Holding Up Well:

GLD: $510 → $422 in 2 days = 88 points (16-17% drop)
PHYS (physical): $42 → $34 = 18-19% drop
Gary: "I'm kind of impressed with gold, how it's held up pretty well versus the silver"
"Gold miners actually a little bit better than the gold"
Key level: $448 on GLD - "As long as GLD holds the lows of yesterday... it's in decent stead"

Silver - Much Weaker:

SLV: $110 → $69/70 = 35-37% drop
Gary: "Silver, much weaker... has hardly bounced. Actually, excuse me, it is below that two days drop"
Context: "After a 100% move, over 100% in a matter of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 weeks"

🏭 WHERE MONEY IS FLOWING - "INDUSTRIAL AGE"

Gary's Assessment:

"You would think we're in some sort of industrial age, and maybe we are, because that's where the money's flowing. Even though earnings and sales, not much there."

"It's one of the biggest changes of playing fields I have seen in a major long time."

What's Hitting Gary's Screens:

OILS:

75 stocks with good patterns
"Very strong"
USO: $67 → $76 in 4 weeks (down from $80)
"Symbols I've never heard of or have ever seen in pipelines and the like"

CHEMICALS:

Gary: "How to mention the word chemical and I can't tell you how long"

AUTO ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT:

Transportation equipment
Heavy duty truck parts
Lear Seeding: "Seating and electrical systems for automotive OEMs"

CONTAINERS & PACKAGING:

Crown Holdings (used to be Crown Cork & Seal): "Steel and aluminum cans and metal caps"
Packaging Corp of America: "Container board and corrugated packaging"
Ball Corp: "Aluminum packaging for beverages" - 5% drop in earnings

MACHINERY & INDUSTRIALS:

Illinois Tool Works: "Metal fasteners breaks out on single digits"
Iron Mountain
PPG Industries
Terex: "Capital equipment for construction and mining"
Ingersoll Rand: Machinery

THE SHOCKING EXAMPLE - Allison Transmission:

Gary: "Allison Transmission, the heck is that? By the way, drop in earnings of 28% and a drop in sales of 16%, and it's at a new yearly high. That's my world."

DEERE:

Reports in 6 days
This quarter: 14% earnings drop
Prior quarters: 24%, 22%, 60% drops
Gary: "Probably another drop"

Gary's Summary: "Names, I would never even have to think about... Things that were dead, never moved, did nothing, getting the love."

"I look down at their earnings, I'm like, but I got news for you. That's what's hitting my screens."

"A lot of them with terrible earnings."

🚚 TRANSPORTS - Wild Swings

Yesterday/Today:

Down 800 points yesterday (AI karaoke news)
Up 300 today
November: 16.5
Now: 19.3

Strong Names:

FedEx and others in group

⚡ UTILITIES - 10-Year Yield Drop

Last 3 Days:

10-Year Yield: 4.2 → 4.056
XLU (utilities ETF): $43.82 → $46.50 in 4 days

Gary: "Hitting my screen"

🏠 HOUSING - Yearly Highs

Why: 10-year yield "dropping like a rock"

Names:

Toll Brothers: Reports next week, at yearly highs
Pulte: Almost there
Greenbrick (GRBK): There

Gary: "Which, by the way, is good news. Is good news."

🌍 FOREIGN MARKETS - "Beating Our Butts"

Gary: "Foreign markets are beating our butts right now. For a long while, that wasn't going on."

JAPAN:

"Took 30 some odd years to get back to the old highs. But it's gone. En Fuego."

NOT WORKING:

China: "Still very weak. It's had its moments, but certainly not a major move to the upside"

Other Foreign Markets:

"Dang... they will move better than ours because they're less liquid and easy to move more. But dang, that's the story."

📊 WHAT'S NOT WORKING

Weak Sectors:

Auto dealers: No
Restaurants: "A few tried. They're all sinking like a stone now"
Insurance stocks: "Boy, oh boy, were they blasted"
Managed care HMOs: "Destroyed"
Medical: "Some strong, but a lot weak"
Retail: "Some strong, but also a lot weak"

Gary's Key Quotes

On the Week: "The week was just sheer insanity."

"Just your average 700, 800 point swing in a day."

On AI Disruption: "What possibly can be next? What possibly can be next? I hope nothing."

"I can safely tell you and honestly tell you, I don't have a clue."

"We don't know what's behind the door."

On Mag 7/8: "They, instead of being the tail winds, they are the headwinds."

"This is not something that came out of nowhere... It's been going on for a while."

"They're gargantuan influence... in the thirties of the S&P and in the sixties of the NASDAQ 100."

On Where Money Is Flowing: "You would think we're in some sort of industrial age, and maybe we are."

"Names, I would never even have to think about."

"Things that were dead, never moved, did nothing, getting the love."

On Earnings: "A lot of them with terrible earnings."

"Allison Transmission... drop in earnings of 28% and a drop in sales of 16%, and it's at a new yearly high. That's my world."

On Gold: "I'm kind of impressed with gold, how it's held up pretty well."

On Foreign Markets: "Foreign markets are beating our butts right now."

Bottom Line

Gary's Historic Observation: "One of the biggest changes of playing fields I have seen in a major long time." The market has completely flipped - mega cap tech (Mag 7/8) are now "headwinds instead of tailwinds", while boring industrial stocks with terrible earnings are hitting new yearly highs.

Mag 7/8 Carnage: All acting poorly - Apple, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Netflix all down significantly. They represent 30%+ of S&P and 60%+ of NASDAQ 100, yet getting crushed. "This is not something that came out of nowhere."

Money Flowing To: Oils (75 stocks!), chemicals, machinery, containers/packaging, utilities, housing. Allison Transmission: -28% earnings, -16% sales = new yearly high. Deere with 4 straight quarters of massive earnings drops still strong.

AI Disruption: Transports got "squashed by a karaoke machine company" (down 11-12% for week). Insurance, brokerages, software, consulting all hit. "What possibly can be next?" Gary has no clue.

Gold/Silver: After climactic 16-19% drops, gold holding up well, silver much weaker (down 35-37%).

Foreign Markets: Japan "en fuego" after 30 years. "Beating our butts."

Key Takeaway: We're in an "industrial age" where money flows to boring stocks with terrible fundamentals while big tech gets destroyed. Wild daily swings (700-800 points). Gary genuinely uncertain about AI disruption targets. Biggest market regime change he's seen in a very long time.

BamaTrades

Friday, February 13, 2026

Wild Week In Review