🟢 AUGUST 7, 2026 (Fri) - GOLD BREAKS OUT. SEMIS SETTING UP. SPACEX POSSIBLE IPO BOTTOM.
"GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, MUCH BETTER TECHNOLOGY ACTION."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
Leading: Gold, silver, gold miners. Semis building inverted head and shoulders. SpaceX possible IPO bottom. Palantir broke above mid-level range. Select software names surging on earnings. Avoid: Hotels (Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt all hit on earnings). SEZL down 34%. Dave (DAVE) crashing post-earnings. Post Holdings down 13%. Setting Up: Airbnb breaking out on earnings acceleration. Lumentum and Coherent back above 50-day. SOX needs to clear 12,525 then 12,705 (50-day MA). Gary doing deep earnings scan this weekend.
Dollar: Treasury Secretary on warpath to weaken it. Dollar topping and breaking down. Gary: "When the dollar sinks, our multinationals do better and typically it helps markets."
🥇 GOLD AND SILVER - BREAKING OUT
Trigger was Wednesday: gold broke above the 50-day moving average for the first time since March.
Today:
- GLD: Up $8.80 / up 2.25%
- Silver: Up ~3%
- GDX (gold miners): Up 7%
- Junior gold miners: Up 7.5%
Gary: "I am pretty sure our Treasury Secretary is on the warpath to crush the dollar. When the dollar sinks, our multinationals do better."
Copper also near highs. Gary: "I gather other commodities will join in."
📈 SEMICONDUCTORS - INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS
SOX up 308 today. 90% of Gary's semi screen green.
Key levels to watch:
- 12,525: First hurdle for the inverted head and shoulders to confirm
- 12,705: 50-day moving average. Break above both "increases the betterment of what we're seeing."
Up today:
- Microchip: Up $10 (earnings)
- Qualcomm: Up $7 (not earnings)
- Texas Instruments: Up $7
- ASML: Up $36
- Lam Research and AMAT: Up
Down today (within the mostly green screen):
- SanDisk (SNDK): Down $44
- Seagate (STX): Down $38
- Western Digital (WDC): Down $17
- Micron (MU): Down $5
- AMD: Down $6
- ARM Holdings: Down $5
Gary: "Two Wednesdays ago they were crumbling. But as soon as they announced ceasefire, things turned. Then you get some decent reaction to earnings."
Lumentum (LITE): Back above the 50-day moving average. Coherent (COHR): Back above the 50-day moving average. Gary: "Certainly nothing really breaking out right now, but better. That's all we can do, look for better."
🚀 SPACEX - POSSIBLE IPO BOTTOM
Yesterday: Hit a low of $105, closed at $115. Today: Up $18 to $133 (+16%). Volume was institutional.
Context: Lockup period for 900 million shares just kicked in. Stock got hit on earnings earlier this week. Analyst upgraded today.
Gary: "I think this stock has a chance at what I call an IPO bottom."
Risk area Gary is watching: $120 to $122. If it gets there calmly and quietly, Gary says that is a place to look at it.
Gary's provisos: Valuations are still "in the trees." Elon Musk says expecting $1 trillion in revenues by 2030, up from ~$20 billion currently. Gary: "He'd have to 50 times sales in four years." Market conditions next week will have a lot of say. "If we walk in next week and the market gets lat, bets are off."
IPO was at $135. Gary was surprised it ever broke $135. Now watching whether $120 holds as the new floor.
📈 PALANTIR (PLTR)
Went from $207 to $106 during the selloff. Latest earnings shot it up from the lows. Settled for two days. Today: up $16, broke above mid-level range around $166, closed at $171 and change. Volume picked up.
Gary: "400 billion market cap with $6 billion in revenues. In a bear market it's going to matter. Right now, they're in there."
📊 EARNINGS STANDOUTS TODAY
Good reactions:
- Twilio: Up 25%
- Atlassian (TEAM): Up 35%. "Had big numbers."
- ONTO (Onto Innovation): Up 15%
- Airbnb (ABNB): Up 17%. Big breakout. Earnings went from +4 to minus 23 to +8, now +33 acceleration. Closed at $178. (All-time high was $220 in 2021.)
Gary on Airbnb vs. hotels: Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt all got hit on earnings the same day Airbnb broke out. Gary spending the weekend researching why.
Bad reactions:
- Post Holdings: Down 13% on earnings
- SEZL: Down 34% off a high
- Dave (DAVE): Was $430 two days ago before earnings. Trashed yesterday. Down another $47 today to $318.
Caterpillar (CAT): Gapped up on earnings at $938 four days ago. Closed at $842 today. Down $100 since the gap up.
Gary: "Earnings will change things. Good to bad, bad to good."
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
Gold is the new leading story. First breakout above 50-day since March. Dollar breaking down is the catalyst. Miners up 7% on the day. Semis setting up technically with an inverted head and shoulders. Two key levels: 12,525 then 12,705. Gary's screen was 90% green today, a big change. SpaceX: Stance changed. Gary moved from no edge to watching $120 to $122 as a potential entry zone. Not a buy call. A "pay attention" call. Palantir: Broke above mid-level range on volume. Gary noting it but flagging the valuation if markets turn bearish. Airbnb breaking out while hotels crash. Gary doing weekend research on this divergence. Next week: Earnings slow down. Gary goes into it "quite happy" about how technology is setting up.
