"COUNTERTREND BOUNCES" - Software/Crypto Rally, Gary's Big Regrets on Oils & Semis

 

"COUNTERTREND BOUNCES" - Software/Crypto Rally, Gary's Big Regrets on Oils & Semis

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📊 Market Action - Dow Resilience

• Dow: +20 (was +1,200 Friday, -250 early today)
• NASDAQ: +207 | NASDAQ 100: +192
• Drivers: Goldman & Caterpillar +200 Dow points (were +550 Friday)
• Microsoft: +$13 (~80 Dow points)
• NVIDIA: +$4.50

Dow Weakness:

• Apple -$3.50, Amgen -$8, Home Depot -$4, Travelers -$8, Visa -$6

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🔄 SOFTWARE/CRYPTO - COUNTERTREND BOUNCES (Gary's Warning)

What Is a Countertrend?

Gary: "It is a rally to undo some of the crash... price got so stretched and extended away from the norm... when you get so far away from the norm, you get bounces. But you don't know when, you don't know how much."

"You are buying in a bear market and in a downtrend where it's usually going to be fleeting."

The Crashes (Last Week):

• IGV (Software ETF): 99 → 79 in 6 days = "That's a crash"
• GBTC (Bitcoin): 70 → 48 in 6 days = "That's a crash"
• Bear flag broke below 64, went to 45

The Bounces (Last 2 Days):

MICROSOFT:

• Dropped: $483 → $392
• Bounced: Up $20 in 2 days
• Now: $413 (still down from $483!)
• Gary: "Of course it's going to bounce... counter trend move"

ORACLE:

• Upgraded today, up $13.77 (~10%)
• Was $208 three weeks ago
• Now: $156 (up to $156 from lows)
• Gary: "Only one problem. It was just 208 bucks three weeks ago... counter trend move"

META:

• Up $16 today
• Had dropped: $744 → $661 in 6 days (80 bucks)
• Gary: "Counter trend, though Meta looks better than both of the previous two I mentioned"

NVIDIA - May Have Changed?

• Thursday: $172
• Friday: +$13
• Today: +$4.60 (was up $8 intraday)
• Result: "Goes back into range instead of big breaking down. That's important."
• Gary: "Being just in range is no big deal. But when you were breaking down badly and you were the number one influencer stock in the market, a big deal."

BROADCOM - Big Move Off Lows:

• Thursday: $310
• Friday: $333
• Today high: $352, closed $344
• High was $414 though
• Gary: "That's a big move off lows... Counter trend"

CRYPTO:

• "Bounced a little bit today, but anemically"
• "Most definitely in a bear market of unknown price and time"
• "But got very extended to the downside. Little bounce the last couple of days."

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🥇 GOLD/SILVER - Wild Backing & Filling

Gary's Status: "We had absolutely no edge after that two-day nasty drop"

What Happened: "I expect bouncing, backing, and filling and somewhat wildly."

Gold:

• "Bounced up the next day, sat around for three days, and is trying to edge back up into the Eiffel Tower" (the climactic spike)

Silver - 17% Bounce in 2 Days:

• The Drop: $110 → $68 in 2 days, down to $65 Thursday
• The Bounce: Back to $75
• Gary: "This is what we mean by, hey, you can get these counter-trend moves and make good cheese. That's like 17% in two days."
• Held 50-day on the drop (good sign)

Gold Miners:

• "Seem to be stronger than the metal, which is maybe good news"

Gary's Take: "Would I be surprised if the highs get taken out anytime soon? Hell, yes. For me, that would not be the norm, but we're in a new realm these days. Wild swings are the name of the game."

"I still have no edge except to say past couple of days, nice bounces."

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🛢️ OILS - GARY'S BIG REGRET #1

Gary: "I got to tell you, oil stocks are much stronger than oil prices"

EXXON - The One That Got Away:

• Gary on show: "Boy, Exxon's breaking out of like 9-month base"
• Gary: "I didn't buy it"
• Breakout: $127
• Now: $151 in 3.5 weeks = 18%
• Gary: "Very liquid oil name. I didn't buy it. Man, it's been strong."

CHEVRON:

• Broke out: $170
• Already: $182

Oil Services ETF:

• Broke above high of 23 at 364
• Now: 374
• One-year breakout was 317
• Gary: "Another one I regret very much"

XLE (Big Oil ETF - Exxon types):

• Broke out: ~$48 (not even a month ago)
• Now: $53

XOP (Exploration & Production):

• Weaker, just edging out
• Gary: "Not the one I always look to buy the strongest of"

Gary's Lament: "Then there's been some individual names, nice move, and I don't own any. What can I tell you?"

Current Status: "I think they may have a ways to go. Pullbacks. If I see any good pullbacks, I will alert. A bunch of them are extended now, in spite of oil prices not keeping up."

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🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - GARY'S BIG REGRET #2

SOX Performance:

• Dropped: 8386 → 7461 in 4 days
• Bounced: Back to 8162 in 3 days

Gary's Thursday Decision:

• SOX hit 50-day MA on Thursday (down 22 points from it)
• Close Thursday: 7614
• Gary: "I think I told you this Friday, I was going to buy just a little bit for myself. I had too much angst to do it for anybody else, especially with software crashing into Thursday, but I figure you buy the strongest at the 50-day."
• Result: "I didn't."
• Now: 8162 = 7% in 2 days
• Gary: "Oh, well, duh."

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🏭 ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE - "MOST BORING OF BORING"

What's Happening: Gary: "Companies with 15 and 20% earnings drops. Companies with no sales growth went up 10% last week into new high ground."

"As we always tell you, if that's occurring, economy's in good shape. I've never seen a bear market in the economy when economic stocks are doing their thing. It's quite amazing."

Example: TIMKEN (Ball Bearings)

• No growth
• Broke out: $85
• Now: $108
• Stock done nothing since 2021
• Gary: "The market's saying something"

The Boring Stuff: "When I say boring, I mean I'm writing down symbols that I've never written down before."

GDP Context:

• 4-5% GDP for $30 trillion economy
• Gary: "Which is amazing"
• "The president gets great credit on that, though his poll numbers suck. I think that has to do with him. You know what I mean by that."
• "He needs to read How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie, in my humblest opinions."

What Did the Work: "The most boring of boring, and that's what did the Dow last Friday. That's what did the Dow."

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📈 OTHER SECTORS

STRONG:

• Some banks
• Canadian banks: Breaking out again
• Steel & Copper: Strong - "I keep hearing copper, there's going to be shortages up the wazoo going forward"
• AI stuff: "Some of the very weak AI stuff bounced well today, right before earnings"

WEAK:

• Insurance stocks: "There's your bear market. Horror show. They smacked a few big time today again."
• Transports: "Pulled back a little bit today, but went vertical"

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📊 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE

• NASDAQ: Unchanged (0%)
• S&P: +1%
• Mid-caps: +8%
• Russell 2000: +8%
• Dow: +4%

Gary: "S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 have not broken out yet because of the makeup, but they're going to try if the big names do better."

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🎯 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING & OUTLOOK

Gold/Silver: "My big interest right now is gold and silver going to have another big move, because if they do, I'm not in them right now. If they do, I want to be on it, but right now, I have no edge."

Oils: "I think they may have a ways to go. If I see any good pullbacks, I will alert. A bunch of them are extended now."

Semiconductors: Missed the 50-day buy - "Oh, well, duh"

Regrets:

• Exxon breakout: Didn't buy, up 18%
• Oil services: "Another one I regret very much"
• SOX at 50-day: "I was going to buy... I didn't"

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Gary's Key Quotes

On Countertrend Bounces: "It is a rally to undo some of the crash... when you get so far away from the norm, you get bounces. But you are buying in a bear market where it's usually going to be fleeting."

"Imagine if something drops from 100 to 60 and rallies to 72. 60 to 72 is 20 percent. That'd be a nice catch. But you are buying in a bear market."

On Software/Crypto Bounces: "Microsoft just went from 483 down to 392. Of course it's going to bounce... counter trend move."

"Oracle... only one problem. It was just 208 bucks three weeks ago... now 156... counter trend move."

On NVIDIA/Broadcom: "Being just in range is no big deal. But when you were breaking down badly and you were the number one influencer stock in the market, a big deal."

On Silver: "You can get these counter-trend moves and make good cheese. That's like 17% in two days."

On Gold/Silver: "Would I be surprised if the highs get taken out anytime soon? Hell, yes... but we're in a new realm. Wild swings are the name of the game."

On His Regrets: "I don't own any. What can I tell you?"

"Oh, well, duh." (on missing SOX buy)

On Economy: "I've never seen a bear market in the economy when economic stocks are doing their thing."

On Trump: "The president gets great credit on that [4-5% GDP], though his poll numbers suck... He needs to read How to Win Friends and Influence People."

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Bottom Line

Gary's Assessment: Software and crypto getting countertrend bounces after crash (IGV 99→79, GBTC 70→48). These are normal bear market bounces - "fleeting" and "you don't know when or how much." NVIDIA/Broadcom may have changed character (back in range vs breaking down). Gary has major regrets missing oils (Exxon up 18%, didn't buy) and semis (SOX 7% in 2 days, didn't buy at 50-day). Gold/silver bouncing wildly, no edge yet. Economy strong (4-5% GDP), boring stocks with bad earnings hitting new highs. Insurance in horror show. Indices haven't broken out yet but trying.

Key Message: Bounces are happening but they're countertrends in bear markets. Gary sitting on hands in gold/silver/oils waiting for pullbacks or clearer signals. Biggest takeaway: "Wild swings are the name of the game."