"COUNTERTREND BOUNCES" - Software/Crypto Rally, Gary's Big Regrets on Oils & Semis

 

"COUNTERTREND BOUNCES" - Software/Crypto Rally, Gary's Big Regrets on Oils & Semis

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📊 Market Action - Dow Resilience

• Dow: +20 (was +1,200 Friday, -250 early today)
• NASDAQ: +207 | NASDAQ 100: +192
• Drivers: Goldman & Caterpillar +200 Dow points (were +550 Friday)
• Microsoft: +$13 (~80 Dow points)
• NVIDIA: +$4.50

Dow Weakness:

• Apple -$3.50, Amgen -$8, Home Depot -$4, Travelers -$8, Visa -$6

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🔄 SOFTWARE/CRYPTO - COUNTERTREND BOUNCES (Gary's Warning)

What Is a Countertrend?

Gary: "It is a rally to undo some of the crash... price got so stretched and extended away from the norm... when you get so far away from the norm, you get bounces. But you don't know when, you don't know how much."

"You are buying in a bear market and in a downtrend where it's usually going to be fleeting."

The Crashes (Last Week):

• IGV (Software ETF): 99 → 79 in 6 days = "That's a crash"
• GBTC (Bitcoin): 70 → 48 in 6 days = "That's a crash"
• Bear flag broke below 64, went to 45

The Bounces (Last 2 Days):

MICROSOFT:

• Dropped: $483 → $392
• Bounced: Up $20 in 2 days
• Now: $413 (still down from $483!)
• Gary: "Of course it's going to bounce... counter trend move"

ORACLE:

• Upgraded today, up $13.77 (~10%)
• Was $208 three weeks ago
• Now: $156 (up to $156 from lows)
• Gary: "Only one problem. It was just 208 bucks three weeks ago... counter trend move"

META:

• Up $16 today
• Had dropped: $744 → $661 in 6 days (80 bucks)
• Gary: "Counter trend, though Meta looks better than both of the previous two I mentioned"

NVIDIA - May Have Changed?

• Thursday: $172
• Friday: +$13
• Today: +$4.60 (was up $8 intraday)
• Result: "Goes back into range instead of big breaking down. That's important."
• Gary: "Being just in range is no big deal. But when you were breaking down badly and you were the number one influencer stock in the market, a big deal."

BROADCOM - Big Move Off Lows:

• Thursday: $310
• Friday: $333
• Today high: $352, closed $344
• High was $414 though
• Gary: "That's a big move off lows... Counter trend"

CRYPTO:

• "Bounced a little bit today, but anemically"
• "Most definitely in a bear market of unknown price and time"
• "But got very extended to the downside. Little bounce the last couple of days."

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🥇 GOLD/SILVER - Wild Backing & Filling

Gary's Status: "We had absolutely no edge after that two-day nasty drop"

What Happened: "I expect bouncing, backing, and filling and somewhat wildly."

Gold:

• "Bounced up the next day, sat around for three days, and is trying to edge back up into the Eiffel Tower" (the climactic spike)

Silver - 17% Bounce in 2 Days:

• The Drop: $110 → $68 in 2 days, down to $65 Thursday
• The Bounce: Back to $75
• Gary: "This is what we mean by, hey, you can get these counter-trend moves and make good cheese. That's like 17% in two days."
• Held 50-day on the drop (good sign)

Gold Miners:

• "Seem to be stronger than the metal, which is maybe good news"

Gary's Take: "Would I be surprised if the highs get taken out anytime soon? Hell, yes. For me, that would not be the norm, but we're in a new realm these days. Wild swings are the name of the game."

"I still have no edge except to say past couple of days, nice bounces."

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🛢️ OILS - GARY'S BIG REGRET #1

Gary: "I got to tell you, oil stocks are much stronger than oil prices"

EXXON - The One That Got Away:

• Gary on show: "Boy, Exxon's breaking out of like 9-month base"
• Gary: "I didn't buy it"
• Breakout: $127
• Now: $151 in 3.5 weeks = 18%
• Gary: "Very liquid oil name. I didn't buy it. Man, it's been strong."

CHEVRON:

• Broke out: $170
• Already: $182

Oil Services ETF:

• Broke above high of 23 at 364
• Now: 374
• One-year breakout was 317
• Gary: "Another one I regret very much"

XLE (Big Oil ETF - Exxon types):

• Broke out: ~$48 (not even a month ago)
• Now: $53

XOP (Exploration & Production):

• Weaker, just edging out
• Gary: "Not the one I always look to buy the strongest of"

Gary's Lament: "Then there's been some individual names, nice move, and I don't own any. What can I tell you?"

Current Status: "I think they may have a ways to go. Pullbacks. If I see any good pullbacks, I will alert. A bunch of them are extended now, in spite of oil prices not keeping up."

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🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - GARY'S BIG REGRET #2

SOX Performance:

• Dropped: 8386 → 7461 in 4 days
• Bounced: Back to 8162 in 3 days

Gary's Thursday Decision:

• SOX hit 50-day MA on Thursday (down 22 points from it)
• Close Thursday: 7614
• Gary: "I think I told you this Friday, I was going to buy just a little bit for myself. I had too much angst to do it for anybody else, especially with software crashing into Thursday, but I figure you buy the strongest at the 50-day."
• Result: "I didn't."
• Now: 8162 = 7% in 2 days
• Gary: "Oh, well, duh."

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🏭 ECONOMICALLY SENSITIVE - "MOST BORING OF BORING"

What's Happening: Gary: "Companies with 15 and 20% earnings drops. Companies with no sales growth went up 10% last week into new high ground."

"As we always tell you, if that's occurring, economy's in good shape. I've never seen a bear market in the economy when economic stocks are doing their thing. It's quite amazing."

Example: TIMKEN (Ball Bearings)

• No growth
• Broke out: $85
• Now: $108
• Stock done nothing since 2021
• Gary: "The market's saying something"

The Boring Stuff: "When I say boring, I mean I'm writing down symbols that I've never written down before."

GDP Context:

• 4-5% GDP for $30 trillion economy
• Gary: "Which is amazing"
• "The president gets great credit on that, though his poll numbers suck. I think that has to do with him. You know what I mean by that."
• "He needs to read How to Win Friends and Influence People by Dale Carnegie, in my humblest opinions."

What Did the Work: "The most boring of boring, and that's what did the Dow last Friday. That's what did the Dow."

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📈 OTHER SECTORS

STRONG:

• Some banks
• Canadian banks: Breaking out again
• Steel & Copper: Strong - "I keep hearing copper, there's going to be shortages up the wazoo going forward"
• AI stuff: "Some of the very weak AI stuff bounced well today, right before earnings"

WEAK:

• Insurance stocks: "There's your bear market. Horror show. They smacked a few big time today again."
• Transports: "Pulled back a little bit today, but went vertical"

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📊 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE

• NASDAQ: Unchanged (0%)
• S&P: +1%
• Mid-caps: +8%
• Russell 2000: +8%
• Dow: +4%

Gary: "S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 have not broken out yet because of the makeup, but they're going to try if the big names do better."

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🎯 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING & OUTLOOK

Gold/Silver: "My big interest right now is gold and silver going to have another big move, because if they do, I'm not in them right now. If they do, I want to be on it, but right now, I have no edge."

Oils: "I think they may have a ways to go. If I see any good pullbacks, I will alert. A bunch of them are extended now."

Semiconductors: Missed the 50-day buy - "Oh, well, duh"

Regrets:

• Exxon breakout: Didn't buy, up 18%
• Oil services: "Another one I regret very much"
• SOX at 50-day: "I was going to buy... I didn't"

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Gary's Key Quotes

On Countertrend Bounces: "It is a rally to undo some of the crash... when you get so far away from the norm, you get bounces. But you are buying in a bear market where it's usually going to be fleeting."

"Imagine if something drops from 100 to 60 and rallies to 72. 60 to 72 is 20 percent. That'd be a nice catch. But you are buying in a bear market."

On Software/Crypto Bounces: "Microsoft just went from 483 down to 392. Of course it's going to bounce... counter trend move."

"Oracle... only one problem. It was just 208 bucks three weeks ago... now 156... counter trend move."

On NVIDIA/Broadcom: "Being just in range is no big deal. But when you were breaking down badly and you were the number one influencer stock in the market, a big deal."

On Silver: "You can get these counter-trend moves and make good cheese. That's like 17% in two days."

On Gold/Silver: "Would I be surprised if the highs get taken out anytime soon? Hell, yes... but we're in a new realm. Wild swings are the name of the game."

On His Regrets: "I don't own any. What can I tell you?"

"Oh, well, duh." (on missing SOX buy)

On Economy: "I've never seen a bear market in the economy when economic stocks are doing their thing."

On Trump: "The president gets great credit on that [4-5% GDP], though his poll numbers suck... He needs to read How to Win Friends and Influence People."

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Bottom Line

Gary's Assessment: Software and crypto getting countertrend bounces after crash (IGV 99→79, GBTC 70→48). These are normal bear market bounces - "fleeting" and "you don't know when or how much." NVIDIA/Broadcom may have changed character (back in range vs breaking down). Gary has major regrets missing oils (Exxon up 18%, didn't buy) and semis (SOX 7% in 2 days, didn't buy at 50-day). Gold/silver bouncing wildly, no edge yet. Economy strong (4-5% GDP), boring stocks with bad earnings hitting new highs. Insurance in horror show. Indices haven't broken out yet but trying.

Key Message: Bounces are happening but they're countertrends in bear markets. Gary sitting on hands in gold/silver/oils waiting for pullbacks or clearer signals. Biggest takeaway: "Wild swings are the name of the game."

"STUNNED BY THE TENACITY OF THE SELLERS" - Software Day 7 Red, Crypto Nearing 50% Drop

 

"STUNNED BY THE TENACITY OF THE SELLERS" - Software Day 7 Red, Crypto Nearing 50% Drop

Note: Gary pre-taped at 1:17pm Florida time due to travel - didn't see final close

Market at 2pm (When Gary Finished)

• Dow: -574 | NASDAQ: -333
• NASDAQ: Below 50-day MA
• NASDAQ 100: Below 50-day MA
• S&P: "Wee bit below" 50-day
• 453 NEW LOWS on NASDAQ - "That's a big wow"

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💀 SOFTWARE - DAY 7 OF RED, NO BOUNCE

Gary: "I AM STUNNED"

"For the record, I am surprised, big time surprised, it has not bounced. I would have figured any day now it would bounce. That's the normal course of business in the market. Drop three up one, drop five up two. We're talking bearish phase. No, it just goes lower and lower and lower."

"We are now in the midst of three, four, seven straight days of red in software. While many say, don't worry, we say worry."

"Even we are stunned. We're absolutely stunned by the tenacity of the sellers. That even at these prices, their selling has not been sated."

Today's Carnage:

• Microsoft: Down another $13 (downgraded today - analyst waited from $555 down to $412 to downgrade - "that's like blasphemy")
  • Since earnings: $480 → $400 = 17% in short time
• Oracle: Down another $8
  • Total: $345 → $138
  • Last 3 weeks alone: Down 30%
  • Gary: "Holy crap, holy crap"
• Salesforce: Down another $9
• Adobe: Down another $10 - "Holy crap"
• Palantir: Gapped up on earnings, $165 → $130 in TWO DAYS

IGV ETF:

• $118 → $81
• That's $37 on $118 = 34-35% drop
• "That's a basket of a bunch that are down that much"

Gary's Left Screen: "A sea of red in software stocks... full of what we call lesser tech. Things that have broke down a while back and just keep going lower and lower."

Names: Workday, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Snowflake, Zscaler, Datadog, Palantir

NVIDIA CEO Weighs In: "Head of Nvidia came out and said, do not worry, software will not be affected. Well, if we got a conversation with him, we would say to him respectfully, yeah, tell that to the market."

Gary's Stance: "Continue to avoid software until we say otherwise."

"The only good news I can tell you is everybody's now reporting the software bear market. And sometimes when everybody starts reporting it, it's closer to the carnage stopping. It ain't stopping today."

"We have been on a void on software stocks... since early November with you guys and we hope you listened, little did I know the destruction."

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💰 CRYPTO - NEARING 50% DROP, MICROSTRATEGY IMPLOSION

Bitcoin:

• Now: $66,000 (down from $125k)
• Gary: "You are nearing a 50% drop in Bitcoin"
• Woman's $1.5M by 2030 call now needs 24-fold increase (was 20-fold yesterday)

IBIT (Bitcoin ETF Proxy):

• Now: $37
• Breakdown level was $60
• 50-day break was at $66
• Went from $46.68 to $37.15 in FOUR DAYS

Gary: "We were 100% correct that the technical part of even this works wonders, works wonders."

MicroStrategy:

• Down another $19 to $110
• July high: $457
• Total drop: 75%+

GARY'S BIG CONCERN - Could This Upend the Market?

"This MicroStrategy, which is now called Strategy, I was just wondering, could it upend the market as a whole if it continues to implode? Because this Strategy company is major league leveraged on this."

"I do believe a ton of people followed the president into crypto, or Bitcoin and Ethereum, because he is the Bitcoin and Ethereum president. Which, by the way, will cost votes if this continues."

"I'm wondering if this could be a seminal moment because of this... it's not a dumb thing to wonder, because this has lost a lot of equity, a lot of capital."

"I think part of it is that micro-strategy leverage may be coming undone."

Other Coins:

• Ethereum and other coins: Down 70, 80, and 90%
• Meme coins: Down 90-99%

The Touts: "You do have a bunch of miserable cretins that continue to come out and tout, oh, it's gone to a million, it's gone a million and a half, it's 13 million. Well, it's now 66,000."

"Please listen to us, do not listen to her or them. Funds are being mutilated again."

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📊 INDIVIDUAL EARNINGS - META & GOOGLE DEFEND 50-DAY

Google/Alphabet: DEFENDED

• Earnings: Down $26 on open to $306
• Recovered: Only down $8 at 1:30pm
• Holding just above important 50-day MA

Gary: "It has got defended today from a really bad open... I don't even rationalize why they opened it bad or why they're buying it up. All I care about is outcome. So that's good news for Google."

Meta: DEFENDED AT 50-DAY

• Two weeks ago: Gapped up on earnings $669 → $738 close
• This morning: Dropped to $653 (below report day!)
• 50-day MA: $655.38
• Opened: $653.50 (couple bucks below)
• Within a minute: Back above
• Result: UP $10 on very down day

Gary: "I'm gonna be paying attention to Meta at the 50-day... them defending, 50-day moving average... opened just a couple of bucks below. And within a minute, was right back above."

Other Movers:

• Qualcomm: Down another $11 - "in a bear market, I'll leave it at that"
• Estee Lauder: Down $25 (21%) to $94.50 - "been a shit name"
• Ralph Lauren: Similar carnage on earnings
• McKesson (wholesale drugs): Up $135 to $957 on 1% guidance raise - "God bless it"
• Hershey's: Up $17 to new high on 36% earnings DROP (beat by 31c, raised guidance) - "It's the chocolate thing"
• SITime (semiconductor): Up $55 on earnings
• Cummins: Down $60 to $546
• Form Factor (semiconductor): Up 15%
• Cardinal Health: Up $18 (generic pharma theme)

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🥇 GOLD/SILVER - WILD BACKING & FILLING

Status: Called climactic top Friday, now in backing/filling phase

Today's Move:

• Silver: Down 12%
• Gold: Down 1.6%
• "Silver is a higher beta metal - it'll move a lot more percentage-wise up and down versus gold"

Gary's Call: "We specifically told you... it felt and looked like a climactic top in gold and silver... We then told you after the two-day drop to expect some wild backing and filling."

"And what that means is one day you're gonna gap up, next day you're gonna gap down. Gap up, gap down, but futz around."

Levels to Watch:

• GLD needs to jump above $463
• SLV needs $83 (currently $69 - "it's a little bit away")

Bulls Saying Buy: "I heard some gold and silver bulls out saying just buy it, this is an opportunity. Well, they could be right... I'm just letting you know, my interpretation, I'm gonna guess you may have some time before you have to jump on the bandwagon again."

"We do think probably they get going again, but certainly isn't happening right now."

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🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - THE HOPE

Status: "A lot of green" while market crashing

Gary: "If we're gonna come out of this, I think the semis will continue to lead. And that's what I am gonna be concentrating on once we come out of it."

The Warning: "If they come after the semis, then we may be talking some trouble. Some real trouble that we already have at this juncture."

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🛡️ DEFENSIVE FLIGHT - HISTORIC DIVERGENCE

New Yearly Highs:

• Pepsi, Coke, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Amgen (in Dow)
• Hershey's
• All "very low beta"

Gary: "When you have Coke and Hershey's at New Yearly highs and Oracle and Microsoft at New Yearly lows, something up."

"It's a lower beta environment."

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📉 DOW COMPONENTS (At 2pm)

• Goldman: -$19
• Amazon: -$9 (reports after close)
• Salesforce: -$9
• Caterpillar: -$12 ("pretty much an AI name at this juncture")
• Microsoft: -$12
• UnitedHealth: -$7 ("holy smokes")

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⚠️ GARY'S ASSESSMENT

On Software: "We really hope you've been listening. Our avoids that we have given you have been fantastic. Just between the coins and the software. If you laid off of those areas, you are saving a bundle."

"Not to mention the private equity companies like KKR and Blackstone."

On Market Structure: "Wish we had better news for you, but hey, we just report, interpret, and see how it goes. It's just, ain't no hill for a climber right now when it comes to markets."

On His Positioning: Still holding defensive issues, watching semis to lead out

On Crypto Woman: "We take on nobody in this industry ever except her because she parades herself like this gargantuan guru even though her main fund is down in the 50s from five years ago."

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🏈 GARY'S SUPER BOWL PICK

Record: 9-1 in playoffs

Super Bowl Pick: Seattle Moneyline

• "Beastie defense"
• "As long as Darnold don't do crazy things"
• Giving 4.5 points (taking Moneyline to avoid garbage TD)

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Gary's Key Quotes

On Software Carnage: "Even we are stunned. We're absolutely stunned by the tenacity of the sellers."

"Seven straight days of red in software... No, it just goes lower and lower and lower."

On MicroStrategy: "Could it upend the market as a whole if it continues to implode? Because this Strategy company is major league leveraged."

On Bitcoin: "You are nearing a 50% drop in Bitcoin."

"We were 100% correct that the technical part of even this works wonders."

On Crypto Touts: "You do have a bunch of miserable cretins that continue to tout... Well, it's now 66,000."

On Meta/Google: "All I care about is outcome. So that's good news for Google."

"Meta... them defending 50-day moving average... opened just a couple of bucks below. And within a minute, was right back above."

On Market Divergence: "When you have Coke and Hershey's at New Yearly highs and Oracle and Microsoft at New Yearly lows, something up."

"REVENGE OF THE NERDS" - Tech Crushed, Money Flows to "Stuff", Software Carnage Deepens

 

"REVENGE OF THE NERDS" - Tech Crushed, Money Flows to "Stuff", Software Carnage Deepens

📊 Market Action - Historic Divergence

• Dow: +260 | NASDAQ: -350 | NASDAQ 100: -447 (was down 570!)
• NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Finished BELOW 50-day moving average

Gary: "Money flowing out of tech. Money flowing into the stuff. That is what happened today. Best way I can explain it. Out of one, into the other."

💀 SOFTWARE - BEAR MARKET DEEPENING (The Big Story)

The Carnage Accelerates:

• Oracle: 50-day break at $277 → $146 (Gary questioning "400 billion backlog, stock crumbling")
• Microsoft: 50-day break at $514 → $414
• SAP: Topped $313 → under $200
• Salesforce: Topped over year ago
• Adobe: Crumbled over year ago

Today's Moves:

• AppLovin (APP): -$74 to $387
• Palantir: -$19 (-12%) to $139 (from $207 = over 30% drop)
• Intuit: +$11 (but dropped $160 in last 3 weeks - "boggles the mind")

Software ETF (IGV):

• $118 → $84 = 30% drop
• Destroyed: Intuit, ServiceNow, Workday, Synopsys, Autodesk

The News Today: Company called Anthropic doing AI things "blowing doors off companies in AI space" - explains the software crash

Gary: "For weeks and weeks to avoid software... all of a sudden I see everybody talking about how bad software is... after a 30% drop for the ETF. Stock's down 50 and 60."

🎯 GARY'S TINKERING

"Typically after a drop and all of a sudden it's being reported left and right. Maybe we'll get some bounces. Maybe we'll get some counter trends."

"You know what the problem? Something down 50 and bouncing 10 is still in a bear market. And it's still in a void."

"Software remains in a void."

SAAS Warning:

• Software as a service (cloud-based subscription model)
• The worry: AI will take place of this

🚨 SEMICONDUCTORS UNDER ATTACK

Today's Action:

• SOX: Down 347 (was down 500)
• Cracked 21-day moving average "pretty handily"

Gary: "That's to be watched. Do you know why? With how weak software is, if they come after the semis, that's it for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100. It will take out the 50-day."

💰 CRYPTO - NEW YEARLY LOWS, SENATE CORRUPTION

Bitcoin:

• Hit $125,000
• Now: $73,467 = NEW YEARLY LOWS
• Someone called for $38,000 today (Gary: "They didn't tell you at 125, 120, 110...")

Ethereum:

• $40 → $17.50 = more than 50% drop
• Not new yearly lows but close

Woman Called for $1.5M Bitcoin by 2030:

• Now needs to go up 20-fold to be right
• Gary: "Her main fund is down over 50% since 2021"
• "It disgusts me. It pisses me off... they parade her like she's George Soros"

SENATE CORRUPTION: Gary: "Senators asking the president for the government to buy bitcoin. Really?"

"What senators own a crap load of bitcoin and they're getting... and they want government to interfere with it. I will be so pissed off if the government buys bitcoin."

"Senator Cynthia Loomis has suggested to treasury secretary buy bitcoin... They have no executive authority to buy bitcoin with our tax dollars. I loathe these people."

Gary: "This administration and the pals have been promoting crypto. And it's being destroyed... They came out with meme coins that are down 99 percent. Too much touting and shouting and too many insiders making too much money. At your expense."

🎪 "REVENGE OF THE NERDS" - MONEY FLOWS TO "STUFF"

What's "Stuff": Oils, retail, housing, transports, travel, economically sensitive, consumer staples, industrials, materials

Examples of Insane Moves:

• Carlyle: Reports 13% earnings drop, 0% sales growth → up 11%
• Old Dominion Freight: Reports 11% earnings drop, 6% sales drop → up 10%
• Illinois Tool Works: Single digit growth → $263 to $278 yesterday, up another $10 today
• WW Granger: Broke out yesterday, up another 3.5%
• Ryder: Broke out above $200 → already up 6%

What's Working:

• Regional banks, rails, truckers (some on terrible earnings!)
• Oils (firmer, not bull market yet)
• Housing/housing-related
• Consumer staples: Pepsi and Coke at yearly highs
• Restaurants: "Eh, can't be too excited"

Gary's middle screen: "Lighting up like a pinball machine" (was dormant for long time)

🔴 NO-SALES STOCKS - GARY'S SEPTEMBER WARNING PLAYING OUT

Gary's Warning (September): "Nuclear stocks. Quantum stocks. Rare earth stocks. Drones. Robo this, that, and the other thing. Especially the ones with no sales. What you need to know is if nothing changes, they will all go back to where they came from."

Three Months Later:

Nuclear:

• OKLO (poster child): $194 → $68 (had $30B market cap with no sales!)
• One name public since 2003, still no sales: $31 → $14
• LEU: $464 → $251
• NNE: $61 → $27

Quantum:

• $46 → $20
• $19 → $8

Drones:

• $21 → $10

Rare Earth (Admin keeps promoting!):

• $20 → $44 → $11
• Just mentioned again: $20 → $32 → already $23
• $20 → $12 in last 8 days
• $32 → $13

Gary: "Every other week the administration is mentioning a no sales rare earth name... It breaks our heart."

"We want you to remember something. This administration and pals have been promoting crypto. And it's being destroyed."

"Rules of the market. We don't care who's back and what. If you're buying no sales companies when the curtain comes down, you are going to lose your arse. And this is not an opinion. It is a study of every bull and bear market going back through time."

🥇 GOLD/SILVER - Backing & Filling

Gary: "Recently, we told you that gold and silver felt climactic... I think we're going to get some backing and filling. Some time and price."

"They rallied it up. Was strong early. Not so great late. I'm just thinking you're going to need to be patient in here right now... I'm not sure if the final move is in."

📈 S&P/DOW - AMAZINGLY STILL HOLDING

Gary's SPY Position:

• Bought late April (after Liberation Day crash)
• Still holding - "Still has not broken yet. Amazingly so. With all the damage some of these areas have had. Quite amazing."

Dow proxy: "Still hanging in there"

📊 Alphabet Earnings - Wild Aftermarket

• Closed $333
• Aftermarket: Down $7 to $326
• Then: Up $14 to $347
• Then: Dropped $7 back to up only $6
• In one minute dropped $8 = $100B market cap gone

📉 Other Weak Semiconductors (Aftermarket)

• Coherent: Down $19 to $192
• ARM Holdings: $104 → $196
• Qualcomm: $148 → $134

Gary's William O'Neill Warning

Gary: "I hearken back to William O'Neill telling me one day. If they start buying stuff and selling growth, you're getting close to trouble. All I know is in real time, for the stuff, no trouble."

Gary's Key Quotes

On Software: "For weeks... avoid software. All of a sudden I see everybody talking about how bad software is... after a 30% drop... Stock's down 50 and 60."

"Software remains in a void."

On Crypto: "New yearly lows for Bitcoin. Want me to repeat that? It's at new yearly lows."

"Those people you're seeing telling you to buy every day, they don't know. They're in prayer mode now."

On No-Sales: "If you're buying no sales companies when the curtain comes down, you are going to lose your arse. This is not an opinion. It is a study of every bull and bear market going back through time. And it's already happened again in 90 days."

On Senate/Crypto: "I will be so pissed off if the government buys bitcoin. That'll tell me the corrupt are even more corrupt than I even thought."

On Market: "Revenge of the nerds day. Best way I can put it."

"One of the weirdest starts of the year that I've seen in a very long time."

Bottom Line

Gary's Assessment: "The NASDAQ today... finished below the 50-day moving average. Very simply, if continues to stay below, bad. Get back above, good. Potentially good."

Concern: "With how weak software is, if they come after the semis, that's it for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100."

Meanwhile: "Stuff" (oils, transports, consumer staples, industrials) getting massive money flows - stocks up 10-11% on terrible earnings!

"SPACE NEEDLE" - Silver Climactic Top? Mega Caps Wake Up Before Earnings

 

"SPACE NEEDLE" - Silver Climactic Top? Mega Caps Wake Up Before Earnings

🚨 SILVER - CLIMACTIC MOVE (Gary's Call)

The Action:

• Hit $106.70 today (SLV)
• Closed $98.34 on biggest volume
• "Space needle" pattern: Goes vertical, finishes near low of the spike

Gary: "Write these words down. A chance today. Silver went climactic. A chance. Not 100%."

"Climactic for us means silver. After a gargantuan move up. Hit 106.70 today... Closes at 98.34 on the biggest volume. And has what we call the little space needle."

"So a chance here. Silver. After just wow. Climactic near term. We'll keep you updated on that."

What This Means:

• "Climactic moves... they don't happen very often. The only way it could happen is if something goes just about vertical in price. And then finishes up with the space needle."
• Gary: "We've studied climactic moves... we think there's a decent chance. And probably a good chance."

💎 ALL METALS May Have Hit Wall

Also topped today:

• Palladium
• Platinum
• Gold
• Coal
• Steel
• Copper
• Mining stocks

Gary: "Which would also mean the metals in mind. We've all had a pretty good move... May have hit the wall today."

"I'm happy to see the metals in mining coming down. Just remember, you make things with copper. You make things with platinum. You make things with aluminum... Keep going up. That's inflation, kids."

📈 Market Action - Dow Reversal

• Dow: +300 (after being down almost that much)
• NASDAQ: +100 (but breadth negative - mega caps carrying it)

🚀 MEGA CAPS WAKING UP (Before Earnings)

Today's Winners:

• Apple: +$7.70 ("somebody said they're buying right before earnings")
• Meta: +$14
• Microsoft: +$4
• SAP: +$8
• Oracle: +$5

Gary: "Last week we said the mega caps were waking up a little bit into earnings. We'll see how it goes."

"The NASDAQ was up 100. But advanced declines were negative on the NASDAQ. Why? The mega caps. That's how it rolls sometimes."

🔴 SECTORS TOPPING OUT

Consumer Weakness:

• Retail stocks: "Topping out"
• Restaurants: "Topping out after a nascent rally"
• Housing stocks: "Look like they're hitting a wall"

Gary: "Some consumer areas seem to be coming in a little bit."

💀 BITCOIN/MICROSTRATEGY - Still Dead

Bitcoin: "Still acting like the south end of the northbound jackass"

• Someone called for $1.5M by 2030 (would need 17x from here)
• Gary: "In order to go to $1.5 million, you got to get to $100,000 again."
• "It's still in a bear market. It's still in a void."

MicroStrategy - THE LEVERAGE LESSON:

• $457 → $160 = 60% drop
• Bitcoin only down 20s%
• Gary: "You're welcome on MicroStrategy, because we've been telling you since $400 and it is $160."

"It did not break $150. Why? A lot of leverage. And you know what happens to leverage? Price keeps going down. The selling has to feed on itself to cover the leverage. And then the house comes tumbling down."

"This should be one heck of a lesson for each and every one of you on the word leverage and the two words, utter stupidity."

"All you are now is an owner of Bitcoin and leverage. And the last bear market of Bitcoin dropped at 75%. Imagine if Bitcoin now dropped 75% and you're really leveraging. Not hard to figure out."

📅 MASSIVE EARNINGS WEEK AHEAD

Monday/Tuesday:

• Boeing, UnitedHealth (Dow)
• GM, Texas Instruments, UPS, Seagate

Wednesday:

• ASML, AT&T, ADP, Starbucks
• After close: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla

Thursday:

• Caterpillar, Honeywell (Dow)
• Blackstone, Lockheed, Sherwin-Williams, MasterCard
• After close: Apple, KLA, SanDisk, Western Digital, Visa

Friday:

• American Express, Exxon, Verizon (Dow)

Next Week:

• Amazon, Google/Alphabet

Gary: "We have no idea which ones are going to gap up, gap down. Surprise to the upside, surprise to the downside. We'll be on it anyway to cut it."

💵 FED MEETING WEDNESDAY

Gary's Expectation: "I do not believe they will be cutting rates."

"The Fed will not lower rates this week. I'm pretty sure that's no reason to."

"The president will call him a moron and an imbecile and too late and a jackass. But Jay Powell's done nothing wrong in the last week. All his errors were a bunch of years back when he printed to nine trillion bucks and bought up a whole freaking bond market, taking the 10-year deal down to a half percent and distorting everything."

📊 Other Market Notes

10-Year Yield: "Back towards 4.2. That's good. Lower the better."

Oil: "Kind of flattish today. Like to see them come down more."

Google: "About the only mega cap stock in what we call good shape. The other ones that have been rallying a bit in the last couple of days just recovering some of the pretty good losses on the recent past."

Gary's Key Quotes

On Silver: "Write these words down. A chance today. Silver went climactic."

"We've studied climactic moves... we think there's a decent chance."

On Metals/Inflation: "I'm happy to see the metals in mining coming down... Keep going up. That's inflation, kids."

On MicroStrategy Leverage: "This should be one heck of a lesson for each and every one of you on the word leverage and the two words, utter stupidity."

"All you are now is an owner of Bitcoin and leverage."

On Consumer Areas: "Some consumer areas seem to be coming in a little bit."

On Powell: "Jay Powell's done nothing wrong in the last week. All his errors were a bunch of years back."

"BANKS GIVE PAUSE" - Regional Banks Fail Breakout, Small/Mid Caps Hit, Metals Parabolic

 

"BANKS GIVE PAUSE" - Regional Banks Fail Breakout, Small/Mid Caps Hit, Metals Parabolic

🚨 BANKS - THE BIG STORY (Gary's #2 Watch After Semis)

Regional Banks: Broke out beautifully 2 days ago, failed today - "tucked its head in like a frightened turtle"

Major Banks Breaking Down:

• Goldman Sachs: -$35, breaking 21-day with volume
• JPM: Down 13% in 2.5 weeks, below 50-day, approaching 200-day - "deeper into its recent drop"
• Wells Fargo: Gap down on earnings, "living below 50-day"
• Bank of America: Gap down on earnings, below 50-day
• Citigroup: "Dropped like a rock on earnings," between 50 and 21-day
• Capital One: -$17.77 (-7.6%), "breaking all support" (credit card issue)

Banks That Acted Well:

• Bank of New York: Acted well on earnings
• Morgan Stanley: Great reaction to earnings, but gap down Tuesday, broke 21-day

Gary: "Number two is the financials in the banks. So that has us very much on notice. Because if the banks gap... elevator up on breakout, elevator down, quickly gives pause."

"We don't want to see financials go by the wayside."

📉 Small/Mid Caps - Pullback

• Small caps: -1.8%
• Mid-caps: -1%
• Dow: -285 (Goldman + Caterpillar = $57 = 370 Dow points alone)

Gary: "We have some decent cushion in the mid-caps. We gave back some... Not thrilled."

"The thought process of what drives the bus in small and mid caps, boy these financials. Big time, these financials."

🟢 NASDAQ Better - Mega Caps Woke Up

• NASDAQ 100: +0.35% (was much better early, came in late)
• Microsoft: +$14+, "woke up yesterday, another good day today" ahead of earnings
• Meta: Woke up
• Amazon: Woke up

Gary: "While the Russell 2000 was down 1.8%, the NASDAQ 100 was up 0.35... better day for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100."

🥇 METALS - "WOW" Parabolic Moves

Silver: "At another high... nearing 100% from late November breakout"

• Closed $93 with 50-day at $60 ("that's a lot of territory if it decides to come in")
• Gary: "Silver, stodgy silver, that basically did nothing for 15 years"
• "There have been days in the last three weeks that looked like it was going to come in. It just went up the next day."
• "Pretty much breaking all rules of technical analysis"

Gold: $418 → $457 in 7-8 days - "just a big wow"

Platinum: $87 → $250 in 8 months

Palladium: $95 → $184 in 8 months

Also strong: Copper, steel stocks, mining ETFs (XME)

Gary: "Isn't this inflationary? Isn't it? Anything made with platinum, you're going to pay through the nose."

"The big stories here are these metals. Wow."

📊 Semiconductors - Weaker

• SOX: Down ~100
• SanDisk: Finally dropped $30 "way overdue"
• Equipment makers: AMAT, KLAC still up
• Taiwan Semi: Up

Gary: "Some casualties today, but not so bad."

🏦 Other Financials Hit

M&A Companies: BlackRock, Blackstone, Evercore - casualties

Capital One: -$17.77, -7.6%, "breaking all support" - already gapped down on credit card news

Gary: "I'm wondering, did that cause it today?... certainly can't be ruled out."

📅 EARNINGS NEXT WEEK - The Big 4

This Week: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla Week After: Amazon, Google

Gary: "That's four out of the big eight."

Gary's Concerns

On Banks: "Number two is the financials in the banks. So that has us very much on notice."

"The banks have been a breath of fresh air. A few of them are now anchors. And today, very much into the lost column."

On "Greatest Economy" Talk: "All we hear right now... from the President, Golden Age, 18 trillion. He actually said he expects the market to double... Greatest economy ever... And when I hear all this stuff, the talk of perfection, the greatest economy ever, I worry. I worry. I very much worry."

On Housing/Government: "I don't want government touching housing. Housing is normalizing itself right now. Government should stay the hell out of the way."

"Jay Powell... caused all this. All of it. Distortions create distortions... printing to $9 trillion, buying up the bond market, taking the 10-year down to half percent, giving you your 3% mortgages, nobody wanting to sell, which guarantees prices are going to soar."

"Let price find its own level. Let supply and demand find an equilibrium."

On Silver: "I'm beside myself that I didn't buy the silver weekly breakout back in June, and the one in November."

"Is it teasing something? Is it telegraphing something? I hope not. That's the best way I can put it."

Gary's Key Quote

"Wicked, wild, weird start to the year. Three gaps to the upside. A fourth a few days later. Strong small and mids only to get cut a little bit today."

"But what sticks out for me today is the banks. They have been a breath of fresh air. A few of them are now anchors."

"LESSON TIME" - Trump Tariff Taco, Market Rebounds, Gold/Silver Parabolic

 

"LESSON TIME" - Trump Tariff Taco, Market Rebounds, Gold/Silver Parabolic

Market Action - Tuesday Crash Almost Erased

• Dow: +300 | S&P: +37 | NASDAQ: +211 | NASDAQ 100: +191
• Week Performance (after Tuesday -850 crash): Dow +24 pts, S&P -26 pts (-0.38%), NASDAQ -0.34%, Russell +1.5%, Mid-caps +0.43%

Gary: "Tuesday is just about a memory... He's full of crap on the tariffs. But we've got to be careful. We don't know how long he's going to stay full of crap on the tariffs."

What Happened: "After we finished early radio show yesterday, the president did his taco and blew off the tariffs that he threatened to put on all of Europe."

Gary's take: "Market dropped 850 points and they crapped in their pants again. They didn't want another 10% drop like they had in April."

🥇 GARY'S GOLD/SILVER LESSON - "Goes to Head of My Class, On Me"

The Big Breakout Missed:

• March 2024: Gold broke out from 13-year range at $190 (GLD)
• Today: $452
• Move: 190→452 = ~50% since early September
• Gold miners: Broke out September at $67, now $105 (old high was Sept 2011)
• Silver: Broke out June at $34, now $87

Gary's Trading:

• Bought breakout March 24, sold June when broke 50-day
• Bought again August, traded out
• Bought September breakout at 318, rode to 403, sold on pullback
• "It never broke the 50-day moving average" during entire run
• Made money but "mishandled it" - didn't make the 50%

Gary: "One of the widest, biggest, gargantuan breakouts in gold miners... I did not listen to myself and what I said. That more than likely, a 13-year breakout has got to be meaningful."

"Gold miners in August 25 broke out before the metal. And what do we tell you? When the miners are outperforming the metal, it's usually bullish."

"This will go down in our archives. And when we see major, major breakouts, years... we made money. We mishandled it."

Gold/Silver Today: Still rallying, "being extended, don't matter. Boom."

🚀 LAG 7/8 FINALLY BOUNCING

"Last Was First Today":

• Tesla: +$19 on no news, back above 50-day (Gary moved it to "maybes" on screen)
• Meta: +$34 on upgrade (still way down)
• Microsoft: +$7 (been trashed recently)
• Salesforce: +$6
• Amazon: +$3
• Oracle: +$4 (even dead Oracle!)
• Apple: "Can't get going. No one."
• Broadcom: Down
• Netflix: Down again, "dead money"

Gary: "What have we been complaining about? The lag's seven. It's eight. But Google's been strong."

💀 CRYPTO - Still Dead

Bitcoin: "Still no oomph. Still no good. Stay away."

Gary: "We're interviewing somebody who called for 150,000 Bitcoin two months ago at the end of the year, and then said end of January. That just pisses me off."

"It's still in the bear phase."

📊 Semiconductors/AI - Some Selling

• SanDisk: Down $38 early, finished up
• "Some selling today in semiconductors and some AI and stuff, but not a biggie"

🏠 Housing & Other Sectors

• Housing: Brought in
• Retail: Got hit to certain extent, not biggie
• Credit Cards: American Express bounces (10% credit card thing)
  • "Couple of credit card companies announced: Well, we're not changing our credit cards. Maybe we'll add a couple of 10% credit cards. Not a bad idea."
• Financials: Mixed day, mostly strong early, pulled back
• Down: Sherwin-Williams, Home Depot, IBM

📈 INDICES - Still Range Bound

S&P & NASDAQ:

• "Sitting right where it was. October. Three months. No gain."
• NASDAQ: "Little back above the 50. And by the way, a lower high."
• Gary: "We think it had everything to do with the very weak lag seven."

Small/Mid Caps: Rested a bit, "was up, better, came back. No worry."

🌍 Emerging Markets Watch

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF): Gary: "You know what's looking like it right now? The Emerging Markets Exchange Traded Fund, the EEM. Go look at a monthly chart going back to 07. Doesn't mean it works. May not break out. It's right there. Emerging markets have lagged big time."

Market Condition

Technical condition: "Pretty darn good" Advanced declines: "Pretty darn good" New highs: "Pretty darn good" Near-term: "Overbought near term. Little froth. Bunch of complacency. Maybe we'd pull back a little bit here."

Gary's Key Quotes

On Trump/Tariffs: "He's full of crap on the tariffs. But we've got to be careful. We don't know how long he's going to stay full of crap on the tariffs. That's the problem."

"Market dropped 850 points and they crapped in their pants again."

On Gold Lesson: "This will go down in our archives... we made money. We mishandled it."

"I did not listen to myself... a 13-year breakout has got to be meaningful. A 13 year."

"It's not good enough to see a monstrous, monstrous move... We didn't play the silver."

On Learning: "Lesson time. I don't care what age. Keep learning. Mui importante. Never stop learning. Never stop moving foot forward."

"I'm never demoralized when I am constantly learning about the things I have done right and wrong in the markets. But this one goes to the head of my class, on me."

On The Lag 7/8: "What have we been complaining about? The lag's seven. It's eight."

On Bitcoin: "Still in the bear phase."