"COUNTERTREND MOVES" - Gary Lifts Avoid on Crypto/Software (For Now), NVIDIA Earnings, 4.5 Months of Nothing
🚨 GARY'S BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - CRYPTO & SOFTWARE
Listen Carefully:
"We have been very bearish on crypto... We have been very bearish on software."
"We wanted to start out with these two areas first, because we have been highlighting them on a daily basis to avoid, but we're not telling you not to avoid anymore."
"We're just telling you, it just feels like, looks like, we may get some countertrend."
CRITICAL CAVEAT:
"Nothing a hundred percent, nothing a hundred percent."
"These are not breakouts into new highs and ascending. But if some of the worst areas rally, put a little floor underneath and maybe get things going."
💰 CRYPTO - "PROBABLY STARTED SOMETHING"
The Pattern:
Gary: "We have been very bearish on crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum and all that. It started around early October and it has done a classic bear market pattern all the way down."
Mid-November to January:
- "Went flat after a drop and broke below that flat area, leading to another stiff drop"
- IBIT: $4,668 → $3,530 "in pretty much one fell swoop"
Last 2.5 Weeks:
- "Put in another one of those ledges"
- "Could not even rally after a dumping"
Today's Call:
"We think today's move probably starts some sort of counter-trend move, meaning it is so stretched twice, stretched and extended to the downside, it gets a point where sellers are just washed out and buyers get the upper hand for now and they rally it up into what we call the declining moving average."
"I think today probably, I'm not going past probably, started something to that effect and I'm willing to say I believe the lows of the last two and a half weeks look like they're gonna hold for now, not saying later."
The Warning:
"If at any time those lows are taken out to the downside, that leads to and invites more selling."
Today's Moves:
- MicroStrategy: Up ~7%
- Coinbase: Up 13% (13.5%)
- Robinhood: Up (levered to crypto)
Gary: "Probably, when you're dealing with this thing that has no earnings, sales, product or services, who the hell knows? We're doing this on a technical basis."
💻 SOFTWARE - "VERY STRETCHED, VERY EXTENDED, VERY OVERSOLD"
The Pattern:
"Software also broke a bearish ledge two days ago on that nauseating 800-point Dow Day."
Why Countertrend Expected:
- "Very stretched, very extended, very oversold"
- "Huge bout of bearishness" (sentiment extreme)
- 50-day moving average as target
IGV (Main Software ETF):
- 50-day MA: $95
- Closed today: $80.67 (after +2.8-2.9%)
- Gap to close
Today's Moves:
- Microsoft: +2.5% (+$11)
- CrowdStrike: +13 (but just dropped $90 in 2 days on AI news)
BUT - SALESFORCE AFTERMARKET DISASTER:
Salesforce:
- Up $6 today
- Lowered guidance after close
- Down $7.50 in aftermarket
- Just dropped $269 → $192
Gary: "You know, I better shut up about software with Salesforce.com lowering guidance. Maybe that's not going to help software tomorrow."
The AI Debate:
"All I can tell you, there are two very polarizing opinions out there, that the artificial intelligence is not going to kill the goose in software, and then others saying, oh, yes, it is."
"We'll just pay attention to the stocks."
🚀 NVIDIA EARNINGS - "DAMN, WE'LL TAKE IT"
The Numbers:
- Closed: $195.56
- Aftermarket: Up ~$7 (Gary watching it move higher throughout show)
- Revenues for current quarter: 5-8% better than expected
- "Did not beat by much" on earnings
Gary's Reaction:
"Good news. Damn, we'll take it. Because I gotta tell you, four and a half months of nothingness in the big indices."
"NVIDIA may be a nice little technical move above, and a buyable move tomorrow, depending on where it opens."
Important Context:
"I will tell you, the last earnings report with NVIDIA, it gapped up and had the worst reversal I've seen in a long time."
If NVIDIA Holds:
"If NVIDIA sticks the landing tomorrow, that'll further that move."
"Probably helps the crypto also. There's a component there, I think, of froth."
📈 BIG TECH - BOUNCING
Today's Moves:
- Broadcom: +8
- Microsoft: +10 (but -$1 aftermarket on Salesforce news)
- Meta: +14 ("has been brutally bad also")
- Netflix: +5 (up almost 5)
- Tesla: +8 ("been dead also")
Netflix Context: "Netflix is in the midst of looking to buy somebody, and supposedly that may not happen, and that helps the stock out if they don't end up buying them."
"So Netflix had a good volume day, maybe turning the corner."
Gary's Point:
"The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 have done nothing since early October. Nothing since early October. Zero."
"And we believe a lot of that is because these mega cap stocks have been really dead and weighing down."
"If all these big names just get some counter-trends, that will help. NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 make some sort of move."
📊 INDICES - "FOUR AND A HALF MONTHS OF NOTHINGNESS"
NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100:
- Done nothing since early October
- "Zero"
S&P:
- Done nothing since mid-October
Context:
"I gotta tell you, four and a half months of nothingness in the big indices."
"By the way, this is inclusive of the S&P."
Today's Action:
"Today, they moved a little bit above, a little bit above, but right in the middle of the range now."
"Look, Monday, what, we down $350 at one time, closed down $250 on the NASDAQ."
"They held the last two to three weeks after teasing. I will tell you, a couple of days in the last two weeks looked like we were going to crack again."
🏦 BANKS - BOUNCED, BUT RANGE-BOUND
Today: "They bounced the financials. They were very overdue."
Context: "They slaughtered a bunch of them. They bounced them."
Big Banks:
- "Hit recently, especially Monday"
- "But they never got killed"
- "Had a good day"
Range-Bound:
- JP Morgan: Range-bound going back to July
- Goldman: Range-bound going back to mid-December (2 months)
- Gary: "The one we watch most because it has the big influence"
- "With some wild swings also"
🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - "STRONG, EDGING OUT OF RANGE"
Status: "Strong today. They were edging out of range."
If NVIDIA Holds:
"If NVIDIA sticks the landing tomorrow, that'll further that move."
"Go look where the SMH and the SOXX finished. Go look at where they are in the aftermarket a little bit more."
"If that sticks, we're gonna have another leg up in the semis. And I'm not so sure that's bad news."
🌍 BEST AREAS
Gary: "The best areas have been foreign markets and some selective areas."
Gary's Key Quotes
On Avoiding Crypto/Software: "We have been highlighting them on a daily basis to avoid, but we're not telling you not to avoid anymore."
"We're just telling you, it just feels like, looks like, we may get some countertrend."
On Crypto Lows: "I'm willing to say I believe the lows of the last two and a half weeks look like they're gonna hold for now, not saying later."
"If at any time those lows are taken out to the downside, that leads to and invites more selling."
On What Crypto Is: "When you're dealing with this thing that has no earnings, sales, product or services, who the hell knows? We're doing this on a technical basis."
On Software: "Very stretched, very extended, very oversold"
"Huge bout of bearishness" (sentiment)
On Salesforce: "You know, I better shut up about software with Salesforce.com lowering guidance."
On The AI Debate: "There are two very polarizing opinions out there... We'll just pay attention to the stocks."
On NVIDIA: "Good news. Damn, we'll take it."
On The Indices: "Four and a half months of nothingness in the big indices."
"The NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 have done nothing since early October. Zero."
On Big Tech: "We believe a lot of that is because these mega cap stocks have been really dead and weighing down."
On Countertrend Moves: "These are not breakouts into new highs and ascending. But if some of the worst areas rally, put a little floor underneath and maybe get things going."
On Goldman: "The one we watch most because it has the big influence."
On Semis: "If that sticks, we're gonna have another leg up in the semis. And I'm not so sure that's bad news."
On What's Next: "You got me."
Nothing 100%: "Nothing a hundred percent, nothing a hundred percent."
Bottom Line
MAJOR SHIFT: Gary is lifting the "avoid" status on crypto and software - but NOT because they're bullish, because they're so oversold they should get countertrend bounces.
Crypto: "Lows of last 2.5 weeks look like they're gonna hold for now" - sellers washed out, stretched/extended twice. IBIT dropped $4,668→$3,530 in one swoop, now bouncing. Coinbase +13%, MicroStrategy +7%. But: Still has "no earnings, sales, product or services" - doing this purely on technical basis.
Software: Also very stretched/extended/oversold with "huge bout of bearishness" (sentiment extreme). Should bounce toward 50-day MA. IGV at $80.67, 50-day at $95. BUT: Salesforce lowered guidance aftermarket, down $7.50. Gary: "I better shut up about software" - maybe won't help tomorrow.
NVIDIA Earnings: Up ~$7 aftermarket (5-8% revenue beat for current quarter). Gary: "Damn, we'll take it" after 4.5 months of nothing. If it holds, should help semis, crypto, big tech. Last earnings gapped up then had "worst reversal I've seen" so watching carefully.
Big Tech Bouncing: Meta +14, Microsoft +10, Broadcom +8, Tesla +8, Netflix +5. These have been "dead and weighing down" indices.
Indices: "Four and a half months of nothingness." NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100 done nothing since early October. S&P nothing since mid-October. Right in middle of range.
Banks: Bounced but just range-bound. JPM range-bound since July, Goldman since mid-December.
Semis: "Edging out of range" - if NVIDIA sticks, could get "another leg up."
Critical Distinction: "These are not breakouts into new highs and ascending." Just countertrend bounces that could "put a little floor underneath."
Key Takeaway: Gary is cautiously optimistic about countertrend bounces in the most beaten-down areas (crypto, software) purely based on oversold technicals and sentiment extremes. NVIDIA earnings are positive catalyst. But Salesforce guidance cut is a problem. Nothing has broken out yet - indices doing nothing for 4.5 months. "Nothing a hundred percent."
