"WE THINK A LOW IS OCCURRING - WE DO NOT KNOW" - Recovery Moves, Not Bull Moves, 4+ Month Range Continues
📊 Market Action
- Dow: +238
- S&P: +52
- NASDAQ: +290
- NASDAQ 100: +373
- Russell 2000: +29
- SOX: +150
- Transports: +26 (didn't lead today for a change)
- Advance/Declines: Pretty darn good
- New Yearly Highs: Hardly any (serious damage done)
🚨 GARY'S KEY FRAMEWORK - "RECOVERY MOVES, NOT BULL MARKET MOVES"
The Critical Distinction:
"Just remember, these are recovery moves. They are not bull market moves."
"As I said to the peeps today, we think a low is occurring."
"We do not know if the low is occurring. We will only know with a few more cards coming out of the deck in time."
💰 CRYPTO - "BROKE ABOVE FIRST STAIR STEP"
Status: "Crypto broke above that first stair step as it turned the corner today, had a really good day."
Gary: "We had told you that we thought that crypto that has been destroyed, were looking like they were trying to turn the corner."
💻 SOFTWARE - "SAME, BUT..."
Status: "Software did the same"
BUT - Microsoft Problem:
Microsoft: Up 6 → "only finished up like one and change"
Gary: "To really go, you got to think Microsoft's got to be a part of that equation."
CrowdStrike:
- Up 15 on earnings
- "Was down 10 in the morning"
Other software: "Had a good day"
Gary: "We'll see if that continues."
🏦 FINANCIALS - "DON'T LOOK GREAT"
Today's Bounce:
"You had a bounce today in financials. I'll call that a no biggie. They don't look great."
Private Equity & Credit:
"Ew. Very stretched, extended, oversold, and probably will bounce."
"We've seen some insider buying in things like KKR, but we're still wary."
Gary's Concern:
"You want financials to do well, and not only are financials not doing well, but some of them have just been plain busted up, and I mean big time."
📈 BIG TECH - "SOME MAY HAVE TURNED THE CORNER"
AMAZON - "TERRIBLE, AND I MEAN TERRIBLE":
Gary: "Amazon has been terrible, and I mean terrible."
"Amazon stock, believe it or not, is trading... November of 24, and is still down about 15% from the highs of last October."
"I didn't even realize this."
Today: "Amazon today, maybe, not 100% sure, may have turned the corner. We'll see, but that's a big name."
META - "MAY HAVE":
"Meta, big name, may have."
"There was very little volume on Meta's move, so I don't know if I'm excited with this one, but may have."
TESLA - ROBO-TAXI HYPE:
"Somebody else was out today saying, Tesla's the name to own because of robo this and robo that."
"Okay, it's certainly not the selling of cars right now, but somebody was out today, and Tesla was up 13. That helped."
Gary's Reality Check:
"By the way, on Tesla, all this talk, here's our headline: Tesla had five new robo taxi crashes in Austin, Texas. Bringing the total to 14, but you got to buy Tesla because of robo taxis."
"All right, we'll see. I'm all for it."
MICROSOFT: "Better"
NVIDIA: "Up 3"
📊 INDICES - "STILL FOUR PLUS MONTH TYPE TRADING RANGES"
Status:
"The NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, and S&P are still four plus month type trading ranges, look like they were going to break down the last couple of days, held, reversed, and is back in those ranges."
"Just letting you know."
The Good News:
"The one thing that's good news is the attempted breakdown. The rolling over the big indices, which was occurring, reversed very well yesterday, and we're back in that range that has been going on for four plus months."
"And I have to tell you, we'll take that for starters."
🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - BOUNCED OFF 50-DAY
Status:
"Semis had a good day, though that could have been better, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, as well as some names, bounced off the 50-day moving average today."
"That's a help. We'll see what comes of it."
🛢️ OIL - NEW CONCERN
Gary's Worry:
"As I stated from the outset, not thrilled that oil prices finished on the strong side today."
"We'll see what happens overnight."
Impact - Airlines & Cruise Lines NOW AVOIDS:
"Airlines are now avoids because of oil prices."
"Cruise lines really get hit now."
"I would suggest hotels I'd be wary about and other travel."
🥇 GOLD/SILVER - "CLASSIC CLIMACTIC MOVE"
GOLD:
- Yesterday: Dropped $22
- Today: Up $3 ("anemic bounce")
SILVER:
- Yesterday: "Hit hard"
- Today: "Hardly up"
Gary's Assessment:
"We repeat, gold is much stronger than silver, and arguably we're not."
"That silver move looks like classic climactic move. That's going to be very tough."
"Gold, a little less so."
Gold Miners: "Got hit yesterday, but the gold miners still on the elevated side."
📋 CURRENT AVOID LIST
Explicitly Stated Avoids:
- Housing, housing related: "Remained very weak and pretty much avoids"
- Payroll companies: Avoids
- Lot of the retail: Avoids
- Cruise lines: Avoids
- Airlines: NOW avoids (because of oil prices)
- Hotels: "Be wary about"
- Other travel: Be wary
🎯 "MIXED BAG CITY"
Gary's Summary:
"Mixed bag city"
"Tough go right now."
AI Names:
- "Mixed bag"
- "Spenders not good, receivers good"
- "Of course, that can change"
Economically Sensitive:
- "I could pick out one that's strong and another one that's crashed"
Retail Examples:
Acting Well:
- Five Below: Acts well
- Ross Stores: Gaps up
- Tapestry: Acts well
- TJ Maxx: Acts well
- Dollar General: Reports tomorrow, acting well
Nightmares:
- Abercrombie: "Looks like a nightmare"
- Pool Inc: "Has been destroyed"
- Dollar Tree: "Broken down"
Gary: "What does that tell you? Mixed bag city"
Financials: "To the side" Housing: "To the side" Lot of medicals: "To the side"
🤷 GARY'S EDGE - "DON'T HAVE A GREAT EDGE"
His Admission:
"Don't have a great edge here on the markets"
The Whipsaws:
"I can tell you, two days ago, we were down 800, finished really well. NASDAQ finished up and typically I would say to you, well, that typically means institutions defended and now we're going to get upside testing."
"Well, the next day, we opened down 300 points and then only finished down 400."
"So I would say to you again yesterday, typically, normally, we would get upside testing. Well, we got a little bit of that today, but I have no clue on a day-to-day basis here."
What He's Looking For:
"Just hoping to get some big trends coming out of this and the things that have held well."
"We hope to just get a semblance of order. That's what we're looking for."
"I don't think it's going to happen in a day."
🍞 CRACKER BARREL - WEIRD EARNINGS
Reported: Beat estimates "by a mile"
Numbers:
- Comp sales: Down 7.1%
- Revenues: Fell 8%
- But beat by a lot
Stock:
- Closed: $30.60
- Aftermarket: $33.33 (up decently)
Gary: "I want to see them succeed. I hate seeing failure, get no joy in failure."
💡 WHAT'S STILL WORKING
Held Well:
- Semis (bounced off 50-day)
- Transports
- "Those optical, data, memory, storage names" - though hit hard, still way below highs, "but you can still tell they've got a better bid"
Sticking the Landing:
- "Companies that have had good reactions to earnings are sticking the landing"
📉 LESSER TECH
Gary's Left Screen:
"My left screen of Lesser Tech had a better day. They have been so far down and blasted. They're in bounce mode. Good to see a little bit of that."
Gary's Key Quotes
On The Bottoming Process: "We think a low is occurring. We do not know if the low is occurring. We will only know with a few more cards coming out of the deck in time."
On Recovery vs Bull: "These are recovery moves. They are not bull market moves."
On His Edge: "Don't have a great edge here on the markets"
"No clue on a day-to-day basis here."
On What He Wants: "Just hoping to get some big trends coming out of this"
"We hope to just get a semblance of order. That's what we're looking for."
On Amazon: "Amazon has been terrible, and I mean terrible."
"I didn't even realize this."
On Meta: "Very little volume on Meta's move, so I don't know if I'm excited with this one."
On Tesla Robo-Taxis: "Tesla had five new robo taxi crashes in Austin, Texas. Bringing the total to 14, but you got to buy Tesla because of robo taxis."
On Financials: "Not only are financials not doing well, but some of them have just been plain busted up, and I mean big time."
On Private Equity: "Ew."
On Microsoft: "To really go, you got to think Microsoft's got to be a part of that equation."
On Software: "We'll see if that continues."
On Semis: "That's a help. We'll see what comes of it."
On Silver: "That silver move looks like classic climactic move. That's going to be very tough."
On Airlines/Cruise: "Airlines are now avoids because of oil prices. Cruise lines really get hit now."
On The Market: "Mixed bag city"
"Tough go right now."
On The Range: "We'll take that for starters."
On Cracker Barrel: "I hate seeing failure, get no joy in failure."
Bottom Line
Potential Bottoming - But NOT Confirmed: Gary's key framework: "We think a low is occurring. We do not know if the low is occurring." These are "recovery moves, not bull market moves." Need to see more cards.
Crypto/Software: Both "turning the corner" - crypto broke above first stair step, software bounced. BUT Microsoft only up 1 (was up 6) - "got to be part of that equation" for real move.
Big Tech - "May Have" Turned: Amazon (down 15% from Oct, trading at Nov 24 levels) "may have turned corner" - big name. Meta "may have" but very little volume - not excited. Tesla +13 on robo-taxi hype despite 14 total crashes.
Indices: Still in "four plus month type trading ranges" - looked ready to break down last few days, held, reversed, back in range. Gary: "We'll take that for starters."
Semis: Bounced off 50-day MA - "that's a help"
Financials: Bounced but "no biggie, don't look great." Private equity: "Ew." Some "just been plain busted up, and I mean big time."
Oil Concern: "Not thrilled" oil finished strong. Airlines now avoids, cruise lines "really get hit now", be wary of hotels/travel.
Gold/Silver: Gold down $22 yesterday, up $3 today (anemic). Silver hardly up. "That silver move looks like classic climactic move. That's going to be very tough."
"Mixed Bag City": AI names mixed (spenders bad, receivers good), economically sensitive all over the place, retail some strong (Five Below, Ross, TJ Maxx) some nightmares (Abercrombie, Pool Inc destroyed, Dollar Tree broken).
Gary's Edge: "Don't have a great edge here... no clue on a day-to-day basis." Two days ago institutions defended, next day sold off, today bounced. "Just hoping to get some big trends... hope to just get a semblance of order."
Key Takeaway: Gary thinks potential lows may be forming in beaten-down areas (crypto, software) but emphasizes: "We do not know." Still in 4+ month range. Needs to see more confirmation. "Recovery moves, not bull market moves." The good news: attempted breakdown reversed, back in range. The bad: No great edge, mixed bag everywhere, financials busted up, oil concern hitting travel. "We'll take that for starters."
