"NO-BIGGIE PULLBACK" - Dow -466, Indices Hold, ASTS Valuation Warning

 

📅 Wednesday, January 7, 2026

"NO-BIGGIE PULLBACK" - Dow -466, Indices Hold, ASTS Valuation Warning

Market Action

• Dow: -466 (Cat + Goldman = 267 of those points), still above 50-day
• S&P: Hardly down, just under breakout - "One good day can change that"
• NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: Finished up (way off highs from late selloff)
• SOX: -78 "but no big deal"

Gary: "Pullbacks are okay. I hardly see any breakdowns except BlackRock/Blackstone tucked in like a frightened turtle."

Leading 🟢

• Mega cap tech: Microsoft +$5, Google +$7, NVIDIA +$2, Amazon +60c (all much better early)
• Semis volatile but holding: SanDisk down $20→up 5c, Seagate down $15→up $5, LITE down $30→down $6

Lagging 🔴

• Financials: Hit late day, BlackRock/Blackstone weak, cement stocks broke down
• Crypto: Down, rebuffed at declining 50-day - "keeps in bear phase"
• Software security: Bounce but "just a good day in bearish phase"
• Bear Markets: Housing, food/beverage (General Mills), household products, tobacco, alcohol

🚨 VALUATION WARNING: ASTS

ASTS (space/cellular): Down 12%, $37B market cap, ZERO retail customers

Gary: "Will you be paying 37 billion dollars for a company without a retail customer? Would you pay $25 for a $4 breakfast sandwich? No."

"This is 100% of the time - if nothing changes and they still have no sales, when that area goes real bear, forget about it. Even though they've crashed 50-60%, they may not be done." (quantum, nuclear, rare earth, drones, Bitcoin mining)

Earnings Next Week 📊

• Gap ups = usually good (doing something right)
• Gap downs = usually continue down (something wrong)
• Example: Cracker Barrel 72→30, insiders selling - "should scare shareholders"

Economic Data

• GDP: Good | Job numbers: Sucked
• Gary: "Not often one good one bad. I'm not sure what that means."

Gary's Key Quote: "Most often stocks that gap down on earnings will continue down because something is not right. By the way, the opposite: Stocks that gap up are usually a good thing."