"ICKY DAY" - Tariff Fears Crash Market, 10-Year Breaks Out, Mega Cap Carnage

 

"ICKY DAY" - Tariff Fears Crash Market, 10-Year Breaks Out, Mega Cap Carnage

Market Action - Down Big

• Dow: -870 points | NASDAQ: -561
• NYSE Breadth: 1,012 up, 3,566 down | NASDAQ: 1,219 up, 3,445 down
• NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100: "Cleanly broke 50-day moving average"

Gary: "Today was an icky day in price, and in some cases, a decent amount of cases, technicals, tops."

🚨 10-YEAR YIELD BREAKOUT - MAJOR WARNING

Friday: Jumped above 4.2% for first time in a while Today: +.64 to 4.295, nearing 4.3% Technical: "Last two days is a technical breakout to the upside on 10 year yield"

Gary: "We have an easing Fed short-term rates, a president that wants 1% Fed funds rates easier, yet the market is saying otherwise."

"If interest rates keep going up while [Fed] keeps going down, that is them arguing with the market. And you know who usually wins? The market."

"The bond market is much more important than what the Fed does and what the president thinks... If the 10 year yield keeps going higher, that's trouble."

"We nailed it the first time for you. I can promise you we'll nail it again if the 10 year yield keeps going higher."

💀 MAG 8 = LAG 8 - Complete Collapse

• Apple: -$9 (was down $11), volume = institutions dumping
• Amazon: -$8, "rolled over badly", reports next week
• Microsoft: -$5, under 200-day
• Meta: -$14, under 200-day
• Tesla: -$18, breaks support
• NVIDIA: -$8, "rolling over badly, kids"
• Qualcomm: -$18/$19
• Google: "Also got hit today" (only one that had been bullish)

Gary: "The MAG 8 is the LAG 8, and what have we been telling you to do with these stocks? That is correct. We have told you to avoid them, and they're worsening by the day, and today was a really bad day for them."

🔴 SOFTWARE - Bear Market

Gary: "Software's in a bear market. Don't argue, software's in a bear market."

"They better not get the Semis, meaningfully, and the AI stocks. Why? The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 cleanly broke the 50-day moving average today. Hope you are paying attention."

🏦 FINANCIALS - Rough Day

Credit Card Stocks Crushed:

• American Express: -$13
• Capital One: -$10.50 to $228
• MasterCard: -$7
• Synchrony Financial: -$4
• Visa: -$3

Banks: Had rough day (Dow -870, financials suffer)

• Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of NY had acted well on earnings
• BAC, Citi, JPM, Wells didn't act well on earnings

Housing Stocks: Down (mortgage news, yields rising)

🟢 What Went UP - Flight to Safety/Storage

Gold & Silver: "Gap up on all this strife"

• Silver: Latest breakout = up 60%+ in 7 weeks
• Gary: "We would love to tell you gold and silver are so extended, be careful. I would have said that last Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, and Monday, so we're going to make no comment. But wow!"

Memory/Storage:

• SanDisk: +$40 "the one with leverage"
• Micron: +$4 (with Dow -870, NASDAQ -561!)
• Western Digital: Up
• Seagate: -5 cents

Equipment Makers Mixed:

• KLAC: -$78 (it's a $1,500 stock!)
• ASML: -$32 (it's a $1,300 stock!)
• Taiwan Semi: -$15

💀 NETFLIX - Brutal Aftermarket

Earnings: Lowered guidance (EPS and revenue below consensus)

• Closed $87.25, aftermarket $83.68
• Down from $134 in June
• Gary's sell signal: July 18 at $122

🛫 UNITED AIRLINES - Beat

Up $5 in aftermarket on earnings beat

💰 CRYPTO - Falling Through Support

MicroStrategy: "Fell through the stair step today" Gary: "We've been telling you to avoid MicroStrategy for like 250, 300 points... remain not great, in spite of what they tell us."

Gary's Assessment

On 10-Year Yield: "These are the same things we were talking about with Biden and Powell. Dudes, you're saying there's no inflation. It's transitory... yet the market is saying otherwise and you're doing nothing about it. Well, guess what happened? 9% inflation, had to play catch up big time, caused a good bear market."

"Right now, the bond market is running. And right now, we're going to be paying mucho attention to it."

On Market Structure: "Today was an icky day in price, and in some cases, a decent amount of cases, technicals, tops."

"We've kept it very low beta-ish. Today was a good day to be very low beta-ish."

On Silver: "Latest breakout has it going up 60-some-odd percent in seven weeks."

On What's Next: "If anything changes, we'll let you know."