"LESSON TIME" - Trump Tariff Taco, Market Rebounds, Gold/Silver Parabolic

 

"LESSON TIME" - Trump Tariff Taco, Market Rebounds, Gold/Silver Parabolic

Market Action - Tuesday Crash Almost Erased

• Dow: +300 | S&P: +37 | NASDAQ: +211 | NASDAQ 100: +191
• Week Performance (after Tuesday -850 crash): Dow +24 pts, S&P -26 pts (-0.38%), NASDAQ -0.34%, Russell +1.5%, Mid-caps +0.43%

Gary: "Tuesday is just about a memory... He's full of crap on the tariffs. But we've got to be careful. We don't know how long he's going to stay full of crap on the tariffs."

What Happened: "After we finished early radio show yesterday, the president did his taco and blew off the tariffs that he threatened to put on all of Europe."

Gary's take: "Market dropped 850 points and they crapped in their pants again. They didn't want another 10% drop like they had in April."

🥇 GARY'S GOLD/SILVER LESSON - "Goes to Head of My Class, On Me"

The Big Breakout Missed:

• March 2024: Gold broke out from 13-year range at $190 (GLD)
• Today: $452
• Move: 190→452 = ~50% since early September
• Gold miners: Broke out September at $67, now $105 (old high was Sept 2011)
• Silver: Broke out June at $34, now $87

Gary's Trading:

• Bought breakout March 24, sold June when broke 50-day
• Bought again August, traded out
• Bought September breakout at 318, rode to 403, sold on pullback
• "It never broke the 50-day moving average" during entire run
• Made money but "mishandled it" - didn't make the 50%

Gary: "One of the widest, biggest, gargantuan breakouts in gold miners... I did not listen to myself and what I said. That more than likely, a 13-year breakout has got to be meaningful."

"Gold miners in August 25 broke out before the metal. And what do we tell you? When the miners are outperforming the metal, it's usually bullish."

"This will go down in our archives. And when we see major, major breakouts, years... we made money. We mishandled it."

Gold/Silver Today: Still rallying, "being extended, don't matter. Boom."

🚀 LAG 7/8 FINALLY BOUNCING

"Last Was First Today":

• Tesla: +$19 on no news, back above 50-day (Gary moved it to "maybes" on screen)
• Meta: +$34 on upgrade (still way down)
• Microsoft: +$7 (been trashed recently)
• Salesforce: +$6
• Amazon: +$3
• Oracle: +$4 (even dead Oracle!)
• Apple: "Can't get going. No one."
• Broadcom: Down
• Netflix: Down again, "dead money"

Gary: "What have we been complaining about? The lag's seven. It's eight. But Google's been strong."

💀 CRYPTO - Still Dead

Bitcoin: "Still no oomph. Still no good. Stay away."

Gary: "We're interviewing somebody who called for 150,000 Bitcoin two months ago at the end of the year, and then said end of January. That just pisses me off."

"It's still in the bear phase."

📊 Semiconductors/AI - Some Selling

• SanDisk: Down $38 early, finished up
• "Some selling today in semiconductors and some AI and stuff, but not a biggie"

🏠 Housing & Other Sectors

• Housing: Brought in
• Retail: Got hit to certain extent, not biggie
• Credit Cards: American Express bounces (10% credit card thing)
  • "Couple of credit card companies announced: Well, we're not changing our credit cards. Maybe we'll add a couple of 10% credit cards. Not a bad idea."
• Financials: Mixed day, mostly strong early, pulled back
• Down: Sherwin-Williams, Home Depot, IBM

📈 INDICES - Still Range Bound

S&P & NASDAQ:

• "Sitting right where it was. October. Three months. No gain."
• NASDAQ: "Little back above the 50. And by the way, a lower high."
• Gary: "We think it had everything to do with the very weak lag seven."

Small/Mid Caps: Rested a bit, "was up, better, came back. No worry."

🌍 Emerging Markets Watch

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF): Gary: "You know what's looking like it right now? The Emerging Markets Exchange Traded Fund, the EEM. Go look at a monthly chart going back to 07. Doesn't mean it works. May not break out. It's right there. Emerging markets have lagged big time."

Market Condition

Technical condition: "Pretty darn good" Advanced declines: "Pretty darn good" New highs: "Pretty darn good" Near-term: "Overbought near term. Little froth. Bunch of complacency. Maybe we'd pull back a little bit here."

Gary's Key Quotes

On Trump/Tariffs: "He's full of crap on the tariffs. But we've got to be careful. We don't know how long he's going to stay full of crap on the tariffs. That's the problem."

"Market dropped 850 points and they crapped in their pants again."

On Gold Lesson: "This will go down in our archives... we made money. We mishandled it."

"I did not listen to myself... a 13-year breakout has got to be meaningful. A 13 year."

"It's not good enough to see a monstrous, monstrous move... We didn't play the silver."

On Learning: "Lesson time. I don't care what age. Keep learning. Mui importante. Never stop learning. Never stop moving foot forward."

"I'm never demoralized when I am constantly learning about the things I have done right and wrong in the markets. But this one goes to the head of my class, on me."

On The Lag 7/8: "What have we been complaining about? The lag's seven. It's eight."

On Bitcoin: "Still in the bear phase."