Dr. Boyce Watkins Market Insights Tracker
Episode: November 18, 2025 - "Flight to Quality" + Wendy's Deep Dive
MARKET ENVIRONMENT 🔴⚠️
Status: "Rolling Recession" (Cathie Wood term) + K-Shaped Economy
- Top going up, bottom going down
- Wealth Effect: Market decline making people feel less rich
- Trump tariffs created "imbalanced ripple effect" across sectors
- Market cooling = positive for long-term (forces fundamental analysis)
Major Theme: FLIGHT TO QUALITY
- Moving gains from "high-flying wild stocks" (like OKLO) to solid companies
- Shift from "meme stock culture" to analyst-driven investing
- "When market dips, people start thinking before investing"
NEW POSITION: MAJOR DEEP DIVE
WEN - Wendy's 🍔 NEW CONTRARIAN VALUE PLAY
Position: Bought shares at $8.50-$8.60
Position Size: Less than 1% of portfolio (approximately 0.5%)
Market Cap: $1.6B (down from $3B+)
Performance Destruction:
- Down 52% past year
- Down 61% past 5 years
- Down 30% past 6 months
- Down 3% past month
The Crisis:
- Closing 200-250 stores by end of 2025
- Same-store sales: DOWN 4% (first 9 months 2025)
- Revenue: DOWN 2%
- Net income: DOWN 6%
- "Brand getting their butts kicked"
🚀 BULL CASE - Why Dr. Watkins Bought:
-
Massive Undervaluation:
- Current: $8.60
- Analyst Target: $17
- Trading at 50% of analyst fair value
-
Strong Free Cash Flow:
- Can fund stock buybacks
- Netflix model: Reward long-term shareholders
- "One buyback and stock moves upward = touchdown"
-
Project Fresh Turnaround (Announced Oct 9, 2025):
- "Revitalize, reignite, accelerate, enhance"
- Comprehensive strategic plan
- Stronger franchise partnerships ("One Wendy's" approach)
- Board put management on notice
- Better technology, digital ordering, upgraded equipment
-
Options Income Potential:
- Example: 3,000 shares for $25,000
- Sell $9 strike calls expiring Dec 19
- Generate $750-800/month income
- "Treat it like a real estate deal"
-
International Expansion Opportunity:
- Weak international footprint
- Free cash flow can fund expansion
-
Value Investor Shift:
- Market moving from speculation to fundamentals
- "Investors' tastes shifting" away from meme stocks
- Return to analyst-driven pricing
⚠️ BEAR CASE - The Risks:
-
Execution Risk:
- "Project Fresh" may fail
- Management track record poor (61% value destruction)
-
Rising Costs:
- Labor costs increasing
- Ingredient costs up
- Real estate maintenance
- Trump tariffs impact
-
Cultural Headwinds:
- Fast food "gone the way of alcohol and tobacco"
- Consumer taste shift away from processed food
- Health consciousness rising
- "Have consumer tastes changed so people don't want to die?"
-
Franchise Model Weakness:
- Brand dilution from franchisees
- Less capital-intensive but harder to control quality
-
Competition Pressure:
- Getting crushed by competitors
Investment Thesis Summary:
- "Don't need Wendy's to be great, just need it at $10 for touchdown"
- "Doesn't have to achieve all goals - one or two wins enough"
- Position sized for risk: Only 0.5% of portfolio
- Personal connection: Childhood memories + worked there at 16
CRYPTO/BITCOIN UPDATE 🔴
Bitcoin - Bought More Today
Current Price: $94,000 (down from $124,000 peak)
YTD Performance: +1% only (started year at $93,000)
Status: "Getting body slammed"
Key Insight: "Bitcoin is NOT digital gold"
- Gold up 56% this year
- Gold went up <1% when market dipped (expected defensive behavior)
- Bitcoin crashed with market (risk asset, not safe haven)
Long-Term Thesis UNCHANGED:
- "Every indicator says Bitcoin hits $200K, $300K, $400K"
- "I am a big believer in Bitcoin"
- Action: Bought more Bitcoin this morning
- Caveat: "Nothing's guaranteed"
AI SECTOR WARNING ⚠️🔴
NVIDIA Earnings - "TORNADO NVIDIA"
Current Price: $191
This Month: +4.8% (holding up better than market)
Dr. Watkins Entry: Under $10/share
CRITICAL CATALYST THIS WEEK:
- NVIDIA earnings report coming
- "If NVIDIA says anything other than 'world is bright and sunny and we're making more money than Jesus'"
- Could crash entire AI sector
- Could end the AI fairy tale
- "Batten down the hatches"
Market Positioning: NVIDIA is "grown-up of AI bubble, sturdiest anchor"
AI Bubble: Gangsters vs Wanksters
REAL PLAYERS (Gangsters - generating cash):
- NVIDIA: Chips everybody wants, real revenue
- Microsoft: AI with real cash
- Google: AI with real cash
PRETENDERS (Wanksters - borrowing to compete):
- Oracle: "Borrowing money to pretend they're next NVIDIA"
- CoreWeave: "Borrowing to pretend they're next Google, but they're not"
- OpenAI: "People questioning what will really be of OpenAI"
GOOGLE PURCHASE 🟢
Position: Bought "a bunch of shares"
Thesis: "Going to make money no matter what, good at surviving economy"
Category: Flight to quality, defensive tech positioning
OKLO STATUS UPDATE 🔴
Peak Price: $170
Current: ~$100 (started discussions at $8)
Action: Taking gains off table
Repeated Warning: "Please remember this is not normal, not this easy to make money"
- "Everybody thinks it is, but it's not"
- Now seeing "the other side of that"
- Moving profits to "solid companies"
YOLO CANNABIS ETF - SUCCESS STORY 📚
Example of Dollar-Cost Averaging Working:
- Bought in $20s
- Dropped to teens, below $10, down to $3-$2
- Kept buying the dip throughout decline
- "Original thesis held true" (cannabis legalization coming)
- Small price movement from $2 to $3 flipped all losses to profit
Key Lesson: "Making money isn't about buying good company - it's about selling for more than you bought it for"
MARKET CATALYSTS AHEAD
Fed Decision:
- Will they cut rates? (Dovish = prices up)
- Stay hawkish? (Prices deflate more)
Spring 2026:
- Trump replacing Jerome Powell
- Expected to be bullish catalyst short-term
This Week:
- Big cap earnings reports
- NVIDIA earnings = MASSIVE
INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY - NOVEMBER UPDATE
Value Investing Return:
- Market shifting from speculation to fundamentals
- "Flight to quality" from wild stocks to solid companies
- Cooling market = benefit (forces due diligence)
- "If we have a crash, really going to get good - people will think"
Position Sizing Discipline:
- Wendy's: Less than 1% of portfolio
- "Don't roll the dice and bet it all"
- Size based on conviction + risk tolerance
Good Company ≠ Good Investment:
- "Sometimes great company = terrible investment"
- "Sometimes terrible company = great investment"
- "Don't need company to be great for you to make profit"
- Just need modest value realization (Wendy's $8.50 → $10 = win)
Long-Term Strategy:
- "Consistency is the name of the game"
- Buy and hold through volatility
- Short-term predictions = "entertainment and education"
- "Nobody knows exactly which way market going"
Dollar-Cost Averaging:
- YOLO cannabis example proves power
- Keep buying dips when thesis holds
- Losses flip to profits on small bounces
CURRENT PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT (November 18, 2025)
Value/Defensive Plays (NEW FOCUS):
- WEN - Wendy's (new contrarian value bet)
- GOOGL - Google (bought bunch of shares, defensive tech)
- WMT - Walmart (holding from Oct 3)
- SCHW - Charles Schwab (holding from Oct 3)
AI/Tech (Taking Profits, Cautious):
- NVDA - NVIDIA (holding from under $10, awaiting earnings nervously)
- OKLO - Taking profits off table as price fell from $170
Crypto (Buying Dip):
- Bitcoin - Bought more at $94K despite YTD +1%
Energy (Holding):
- URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (from Oct 3)
Income Generation:
- AFRM - Affirm (options selling, from Oct 3)
- WEN - Wendy's (options income strategy planned)
Infrastructure (Holding from Oct 9):
- CAT - Caterpillar
- JPM - JPMorgan (substantial investment)
- TSLA - Tesla
- BOTZ - Robotics ETF
SECTOR STATUS (November 18, 2025)
🟢 LEADING - Quality/Defensive
- Big Tech Survivors (Google, Microsoft - cash-generating AI)
- Value Turnarounds (Wendy's - contrarian bet)
🟡 HOLDING/CAUTIOUS - Core Tech
- NVIDIA (earnings catalyst this week - make or break)
- Infrastructure plays (CAT, JPM)
🔴 LAGGING/TAKING PROFITS
- High-flying speculation (OKLO profits being taken)
- Bitcoin/Crypto (down but buying more on thesis)
- Oracle and AI pretenders (wanksters)
❌ AVOID
- Fast food (except contrarian value plays)
- Meme stocks
- Companies borrowing to compete in AI
Episode: October 9, 2025 - Manufacturing & Productivity Boom
NEW MARKET THESIS 🏗️
Central Theme: American manufacturing and productivity boom expected
- Data center construction accelerating
- Manufacturing facilities expansion
- Trade skills shortage becoming opportunity
- AI creating demand for physical/hands-on work
SECTOR SHIFT: From Digital to Physical Infrastructure
Key Insight: "AI can replicate brain work (programmers, accountants, strategists) but can't replicate physical building yet"
Trade Skills Renaissance:
- America stopped teaching trades in schools
- Now facing shortage of workers who can "work with their hands"
- Carpentry, HVAC, plumbing talent needed for infrastructure build-out
NEW STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
CAT - Caterpillar 🏗️
Position: Recommended (not stated if purchased)
Thesis: Heavy equipment demand for infrastructure boom
- Data centers construction
- Manufacturing facilities
- "Rebuilding of America" theme
Type: Long-term investment (not for short-term income generation)
Risk Note: "All investing involves risk" - emphasis on careful position sizing
JPM - JPMorgan Chase 🏦
Position: "Made substantial investment"
CEO: Jamie Dimon - "I don't bet against Tom Brady and Jamie Dimon"
Thesis:
- GDP growth accelerating
- Fed cutting rates = "sweet spot" for JPM
- "They know how to position themselves, know how to make money"
Strategy: Generational Stock
- Dollar cost average over 30-year period
- Pass to children for intergenerational wealth
- "Nice little black-owned business that's yours"
- "Just because you ain't doing the labor don't mean you can't be a business owner"
TSLA - Tesla 🤖
Position: Has investment stake (existing holding)
Thesis: Leading company in robotics
Note: "Don't care about politics" - investment based on fundamentals
BOTZ - Robotics ETF 🤖
Position: Long-term investment (holding)
Thesis: "Robotics expected to be bigger than automobile industry"
Future Vision:
- Robots smarter, stronger, more flexible than humans
- "Different world" when robots arrive
- Major economic transformation coming
EMERGING THEMES & SECTORS
🔥 Robotics/AI Physical Implementation
- Moving from AI software to AI hardware/robotics
- Robotics > Automobile industry in size (future projection)
- Trade skills + robotics = future economy
📈 Physical Infrastructure Build-Out
- Data centers for AI
- Manufacturing facilities
- Heavy equipment demand (Caterpillar opportunity)
🏦 Financial Services Positioning
- Fed rate cuts + GDP growth = bank profit opportunity
- JPMorgan positioned in "sweet spot"
INVESTMENT STRATEGY UPDATES
Generational Wealth Framework:
JPMorgan Example:
- Invest consistently over 30 years
- Dollar cost average (don't bet it all)
- Pass to children
- Children become "owners" without doing labor
- "Black-owned business" through stock ownership
Key Philosophy: "We've been working for them for a long time. Time they work for us"
Risk Management Emphasis:
- "Don't roll the dice and bet it all - good way to go broke"
- "Always tell you about downside so we don't forget to be careful"
- "Want you to get used to trying and failing - only way to succeed"
- Emphasis on risk acknowledgment before every recommendation
CURRENT PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT (as of October 9, 2025)
Energy/Nuclear Thesis (Ongoing):
- URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (+37% YTD as of Oct 3)
- OKLO - Nuclear SMR (volatile but held)
- URA - Uranium ETF (held)
Infrastructure/Manufacturing (New Thesis):
- CAT - Caterpillar (recommended)
- JPM - JPMorgan (substantial new investment)
Technology/Robotics (Long-term):
- TSLA - Tesla (held)
- BOTZ - Robotics ETF (held)
Defensive Positions:
- WMT - Walmart (held)
- SCHW - Charles Schwab (held)
Income Generation:
- AFRM - Affirm (options selling)
Episode: October 3, 2025 (Morning) - Government Shutdown Analysis
MARKET CONTEXT 🔴
- Event: Government shutdown in progress
- Market Status: Down 22 points (modest decline)
- Key Risk: Loss of consumer confidence, hundreds of thousands of jobs affected
- Historical Pattern: "Shutdowns have been a buying opportunity for investors"
BUYING OPPORTUNITY THESIS 📈
Core Concept: "America always takes care of rich people" - investors protected through Fed policy
The "Fed Put" Explanation:
- Economy weakens → Fed lowers interest rates
- Lower rates → Stock prices rise, real estate values increase
- "Weird bastardized relationship" between economic performance and stock market
- Titanic Analogy: Fed = lifeboats, only 3,000 boats for 10,000 passengers - "rich people get the lifeboats"
INFLATION STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
- Working Class: Hurt by inflation (higher prices at grocery store)
- Investors: Benefit from inflation (stocks up, real estate up)
- Example: "Lose $100 at grocery store, make $1,000 in stocks"
- Lower interest rates → inflation → asset price appreciation
STOCKS PURCHASED TODAY (October 3, 2025)
WMT - Walmart
Position: Bought more shares
Thesis: Safe haven during recession
- "Solid company, ain't going nowhere"
- When recession hits, "everybody's going to Walmart"
- Not best performer but defensive positioning
SCHW - Charles Schwab
Position: Bought shares
Category: Financial services
URNM - Uranium Miners ETF (Different from URA)
Performance: +37% YTD
Position: Bought more (has been holding)
Thesis: Energy shortage continues
- AI infrastructure spending: "trillions of dollars, no sign of slowing"
- AI spending = "big narrative of the economy"
- May pullback if AI spending slows, but unlikely
AFRM - Affirm Holdings
Position: Bought on dip
Strategy: Income driver through options selling
Resource: "How to Make Money Without Working" training (text "money" to 87948)
WEALTH CONSCIOUSNESS FRAMEWORK (Dr. George Fraser Video)
Time Horizons by Economic Class:
- Very Poor: Think day-to-day (survival mode)
- Poor: Think week-to-week
- Middle Class: Think month-to-month (comfort seeking)
- Rich: Think year-to-year (freedom seeking)
- Very Rich: Think decade-to-decade and generation-to-generation
Primary Goals:
- Very Poor/Poor → Survival
- Middle Class → Comfort
- Rich/Very Rich → Freedom + intergenerational wealth transfer
Time + Consciousness = Wealth
Key Insight: "Wealth is a product of efficient use of resources"
Wealth Ecosystem Components:
- Time
- Consciousness/mental framework
- Family support
- Mental health
- Physical health
- Relationships
- Money (just one component, not the whole)
Time Mathematics:
- "Easy to make you a millionaire in 30 years, impossible overnight"
- Example: Person broke at 25 = 25 years of no investing, no asset building, no economic education
- Wasted time = wasted compound growth opportunity
Consciousness Levels:
- Low Frequency: "Dog consciousness" - moment to moment, reacting to immediate needs
- High Frequency: "Spiritual giant" - thinking in decades and generations
- Society wants low consciousness: "Living paycheck to paycheck, making desperate decisions"
The Bill-Paying Trap:
- "Most people can't focus on higher-level achievements because they're too busy paying bills"
- Dreams die because immediate financial pressure commands all attention
- Financial security = freedom to have desired consciousness level
INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRINCIPLES EXPANDED
Store of Value Concept 🏦
Most Important Job: Like quarterback protecting the ball
- Primary reason to invest: Store of value (preservation)
- Secondary reason: Growth
- Spending money at mall = "guaranteed -100% return"
- Investing = bucket storing cash for future
Economic Maturity vs Immaturity:
- Immature (5-year-old mindset): Money is for spending/buying stuff
- Mature (investor mindset): Money is for storing value and building freedom
Regular Investing Discipline:
- "I buy all the time, regularly"
- "What else are you going to do with your money?"
- Not timing-dependent - consistent accumulation
Long-Term Investor Mindset:
- Natural optimists who can see past short-term volatility
- "This too shall pass" - stocks down today, up in 3 years
- Focus on longer-term goals despite temporary setbacks
ECONOMIC EDUCATION INITIATIVES
For Children: Financial flashcards and workbooks
- Stock market investing flashcards
- Crypto flashcards
- Stock options flashcards
- Real estate flashcards
- Available at: financialflashcards.com
Goal: Change children's relationship to money early - build "time consciousness" and generational wealth thinking
CULTURAL OBSERVATIONS
Hip-Hop & Economic Maturity:
- Critique: Culture encourages spending rather than building
- Positive example: D1 (rapper) - supported by Black Business School tour sponsorship
- "I love rappers, just don't like stupidity"
Political Independence:
- "Don't believe in Congressional Black Caucus, Republicans, or Democrats"
- "Only person looking out for you is you"
- Focus on capital/power, not political gatekeeping
RISK WARNINGS & MARKET OUTLOOK
- Short-term: Government shutdown could extend, worsen consumer confidence
- Long-term: "Your country's headed to hell in a handbasket" - multi-generational problem
- Strategy: Stay invested, let Fed policy protect your assets
- Key Insight: When economy weakens, Fed intervenes with rate cuts = investor protection
Episode: October 3, 2025 - "Black Wealth" Philosophy
CORE INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY 💡
Central Thesis: "Black wealth is black power in a capitalist society"
Key Principles:
- Financial Freedom = Real Freedom: Finances provide independence that truth/politics cannot
- Capitalism Literacy: Understanding money flows, growth patterns, and power structures
- Independence Strategy: Don't rely on political gatekeepers (liberal or conservative)
- Money as Power: In capitalist America, "money drives everything"
- Economic Self-Reliance: Path to liberation through economic understanding, not political alignment
The Fish Analogy:
- "Money is the water in this capitalist ocean"
- Goal: Be a shark swimming comfortably, understanding where money flows and grows
- Know what's happening when "weird financial things occur"
Freedom Through Finance:
- Financial stability allows authentic self-expression
- Living paycheck-to-paycheck forces compromise and hiding "the real you"
- "Little bit of money allowed me to stand up chest out"
Warning Against Exploitation:
- "Capitalism is a bully and a pimp"
- Systems look for weaknesses to exploit and align you with their priorities
- Focus on power (capital), not politics
Educational Mission: Help community understand financial dynamics to navigate capitalist society effectively
Episode: September 22, 2025
MARKET OUTLOOK ⚠️
- Overall Assessment: Market is "really, really high"
- Risk Warning: "Bright day can turn into dark day in seconds"
- Advice: Protect investments, don't get too comfortable
OKLO UPDATE 🔥
Current Price: ~$137 (up from $135 previous day)
Status: "The new NVIDIA" but key difference - "NVIDIA makes money, OKLO doesn't"
Thesis Unchanged:
- AI energy demand
- Small modular reactors
- Sam Altman/Trump connections
- "Good hype with good thesis"
⚠️ ENTRY WARNING: "Should you buy now? Nobody knows"
ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY
Key Theme: Stock market democratization as solution to corporate exploitation
- Anyone can buy S&P 500 and own pieces of wealth-generating companies
- Inflation Strategy: Rich people benefit from inflation through asset ownership
- Example: Lose $100 at grocery store, make $1,000 in stocks
- Real estate values rise with general price increases
- Economic Education: Change children's relationship to money early
Episode: September 21, 2025
LEADING SECTORS
Nuclear/Clean Energy 🔥
- Primary Driver: AI energy demand creating shortage
- Government Support: Strong institutional backing
- Key Theme: Small modular reactors (SMRs) for AI infrastructure
Uranium 🔥
- Driver: Expected shortage and higher demand from AI
- Performance: Strong institutional acknowledgment of supply constraints
Energy (Traditional) 📈
- Theme: "Energy from any and every way they can"
- Government Support: Key driver of economic activity
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
OKLO - Nuclear Power Company
Current Price: $135 (was $8 a few months ago - 1,587% gain)
Position: Dr. Watkins owns, selling call options
🚀 BULL CASE:
- AI driving clean energy demand
- Strong government/institutional support (Trump connection)
- Recurring revenue model (sells electricity under long-term contracts)
- Advanced fuel recycling technology
- Fast reactor design with liquid metal cooling
- Beyond hardware sales - utility-like business model
⚠️ BEAR CASE:
- Execution Risk: Pre-revenue company, no commercial plants yet
- Regulatory Risk: Slow nuclear regulation, past license applications denied
- Technical Risk: Supply chain constraints for specialized uranium
- Financial Risk: High capital requirements for reactor construction
- Competition: Other SMR companies, renewable alternatives
- Valuation Risk: "Probably overvalued" - market in "irrational exuberance"
Strategy: Selling deep out-of-money call options, prepared for pullback
URA - Uranium ETF
Performance: +75% YTD
Position: Dr. Watkins owns
Thesis: Uranium shortage due to AI energy demands
METC - Ramaco Resources (Coal)
Performance: +184% YTD, +197% over last year
Location: Lexington, Kentucky
Position: Recently bought, plans to sell options
Thesis: Part of energy shortage solution, any energy source needed
ORBS - World ID Infrastructure
Connection: Sam Altman's World ID project
Position: Dr. Watkins owns shares
Thesis: Government support theme, human vs AI identification
Oracle (ORCL) - MISSED OPPORTUNITY
Performance: +40% in one day, Larry Ellison made ~$100B
Catalyst: Trump/Altman Stargate data center announcement
Lesson: Government connections driving major moves
HUT - Bitcoin Mining
Performance: +50-60% in recent months
Position: "Just bought a big position"
IONQ - Quantum Computing
Position: "I think I own all of those" (referring to HUT, OCLO, IONQ)
Ethereum (ETH) - Cryptocurrency
Outlook: Positive based on Tom Lee (Fundstrat) comments
Action: Planning to buy more
KEY INVESTMENT THEMES
Government Support = Performance Driver
- Trump administration connections driving major gains
- Sam Altman government relationships
- Larry Ellison/Oracle government ties
- "Government support appears to be the driver of economic activity"
AI Energy Demand
- Creating shortage across energy sectors
- Driving nuclear resurgence
- Small modular reactors for data centers
Investment Strategy Principles
- Options Selling: Selling call options for income/protection
- Dollar Cost Averaging: Buy more when thesis holds but price drops
- Risk Management: "Don't believe in fairy tales, even if they come true"
- Overvaluation Awareness: Prepare for disappointment in hot stocks
EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES
Five-Year Pledge
- Add investing as a monthly "bill"
- Match car payment with investment amount
- Text "pledge" to 87948 for ETF training
Upcoming Events
- Tuesday Noon: Financial healing training (Stock Market Investors Club)
- Monday: Stock options class at drboyceprime.com
- Daily Morning Classes: Text "morning" to 87948
RISK WARNINGS
- Overvaluation Concerns: Market in "irrational exuberance"
- Execution Risks: Pre-revenue companies face delays
- Regulatory Risks: Nuclear sector heavily regulated
- Market Cycle Awareness: "Prepare for the next down cycle"
- Cinderella Warning: "Superstar stocks can become losers next year"
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Community Results: Multiple investors reporting 400%+ gains on OKLO
Dr. Watkins Portfolio: "Today might have been my best day all year"
