Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

 📅 Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

Market Action

  • Dow: -74 points (BUT Caterpillar alone = +390 Dow points!)
  • NASDAQ: +130 points
  • Breadth: DISASTER - 1,342 up vs 3,172 down on NASDAQ (2:1 negative!)
  • NYSE Breadth: 1,382 up vs 2,977 down (2:1 negative)
  • "Underneath the surface not good"

Fed Drama: Powell cut rates 4% → 3.75%, but 10-year yield ROSE 0.75 (3.98 → 4.058). Gary: "He's a doofus. He's been wrong forever." Warns if Trump takes over Fed and cuts to 2%, 10-year could jump to 5%+ and "then I'll give you a housing problem."

After-Hours Bombs:

  • Google: +$17 to $291 (lawsuit win) - "I remember being told Google was left behind in AI. My arse."
  • Meta: -$65 (disaster)
  • Microsoft: -$16
  • Carvana: -$37 (10%)
  • ServiceNow: +$39 (after being down $25 during day)

Leading Sectors 🟢

  1. AI Semiconductors - Broadcom +$12, NVIDIA +$6.50, KLAC +$43, SanDisk +$29
  2. Oils - Up on higher oil prices
  3. Select Earnings Winners - Caterpillar, Seagate, Teradyne

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Gary's explicit "avoid" list that ALL worsened today:

  • Payroll Stocks - ADP/Paychex NEW YEARLY LOWS (Amazon cutting 30K jobs)
  • Private Equity - Blackstone, Apollo, KKR "smashed"; Evercore -$29
  • Consumer Staples - Food, beverage, tobacco, household, alcohol
  • Restaurants - Bear markets
  • Travel - Cruise lines (Royal Caribbean -$13), airlines, hotels
  • Retail - "Ton of it" in bearish phase
  • Insurance - Bearish phase
  • Housing/Housing-Related - Weak
  • Exchanges - CME, CBOE weak
  • Waste Management - Classic bear market
  • Financials - Regional banks, private equity, payments (MasterCard/Visa)
  • Down-and-Out Tech (Gary's "Left Screen") - See massive list below

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winners:

  • Caterpillar - +$61 (390 Dow points alone! Earnings down but sales better)
  • Seagate - +$43
  • Teradyne - +$30
  • Broadcom - +$12
  • NVIDIA - +$6.50
  • Palantir - +$8
  • SanDisk - +$29
  • KLAC - +$43 ("thousand dollar name")
  • Google - +$7 during day, +$17 aftermarket to $291

Lagging Stocks 📉

Earnings Disasters:

  • Fair Isaac - -$100
  • AutoZone - -$93
  • Stride (education) - -54% (171→75 since August high)
  • Serve - -44% today (238→70 since February)
  • Cavco Industries - -53%
  • Verona Systems - -48% (down $31 to $32)
  • Garmin - -$29
  • Evercore - -$29 (9%), breaking down
  • Clean Harbors - -$28
  • BlackRock - -$27, breaking down after trying to break out
  • ServiceNow - -$25 (but +$39 aftermarket on conference call)

Jobs Carnage:

  • ADP - -$18.41 (-6.6%) to NEW YEARLY LOW
  • Paychex - -5.36% to NEW YEARLY LOW
  • Amazon - Cutting 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs (AI/robotics replacing people)

Gary's "Left Screen" - Down on NASDAQ +130 Day:

  • Duolingo -$21, Garmin -$28, S&P Global -$20, Carvana -$8
  • Expedia -$5, Autodesk -$14, F5 Networks -$8, Guidewire -$13
  • Intuit -$22, SCI -$26, ServiceNow -$26

Consumer Staples Destruction:

  • Colgate: 110→75
  • Clorox: 171→110
  • General Mills: 91 (2023)→46 (almost 50% drop)

Restaurant/Retail Obliteration:

  • Kava Group: 172→60 in 12 months
  • Lululemon: 423→170

Travel Continuing:

  • Royal Caribbean - -$13 today (strongest cruise line completely breaking down)

Financials Breaking:

  • Broadridge: 271→220 (blasted)
  • PJT Partners: -$13, breaking down
  • Goldman Sachs: -$9 (waffled)
  • Citigroup: Down a couple (waffled)
  • MasterCard/Visa: Acting terribly

After-Hours:

  • Meta - -$65 (disaster)
  • Microsoft - -$16

Gary's Positioning 💰

  • Bought and stopped out of Meta 6 weeks ago (-1%)
  • Glad he doesn't own Meta now
  • Avoiding ALL the bearish areas listed
  • Watching big banks carefully - "normal for big banks to go last. We hope they don't go."
  • "If you want to know the problem with Starbucks... price. People are price conscious."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary warns Powell is a "doofus" who caused inflation by printing $9 trillion and is now making it worse by cutting too fast. The 10-year yield spiking 0.75 WHILE the Fed cuts is the bond market screaming "inflation coming back." If Trump takes over the Fed and cuts rates to 2%, Gary expects 10-year yields to jump to 5%+ which would crash housing. The split tape is "as split as split can go" with breadth 2:1 negative despite NASDAQ +130. "Underneath the surface not good."

Key Observations 💡

  • Amazon Job Cuts: 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs = 6-8 billion savings from AI/robotics
  • Make Yourself Indispensable: Gary's urgent advice as payroll stocks hit new lows
  • Extreme Split Tape: "A crapload of stocks heading south on I-95 and at the same time a crapload heading north"
  • Bond Market Rebelling: Fed cuts but yields spike - free market saying "inflation's coming back"
  • Breadth Disaster: 2:1 negative on both NASDAQ and NYSE despite indices up
  • Google Vindication: "I was told Google was left behind in AI. My arse." Up $17 aftermarket
  • Meta Implosion: Down $65 aftermarket - Zuckerberg down billions
  • Apple/Amazon Tomorrow: Big earnings after close Thursday

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

IS NVIDIA GOING TO OWN THE WORLD? - 20+ Deals

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning


📅 Tuesday, October 28, 2025

"IS NVIDIA GOING TO OWN THE WORLD?" - 20+ Deals, Terrible Breadth

Market Action

  • NASDAQ: +190 points
  • NASDAQ 100: +190 points
  • Dow: +161 points
  • Breadth: TERRIBLE - 1,782 up vs 2,709 down on NASDAQ
  • Sold off into the close

NVIDIA Dominance Day: NVIDIA held global tech conference in D.C., announced 20+ major partnerships including Eli Lilly AI supercomputers, J&J robotics, Palantir, CrowdStrike, ServiceNow, Oracle DOE supercomputer, Nokia $1B investment, and meeting with President Trump tomorrow. Stock +$10 to over $200.

Leading Sectors 🟢

  1. AI Semiconductors - Specifically AI-related names (most other semis down)
  2. Data Storage - Still working but energy infrastructure stocks topping out
  3. Select Big Tech - Top 7 = 60% of NASDAQ 100

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Gary's "Middle Screen" breakdown of 600 stocks shows bearish phases across:

  • Insurance - "Worsening every day"
  • Cruise Lines - Bearish phase
  • Waste Management - "Being wasted right now"
  • Hotels - Bearish phase
  • Airlines - Bearish phase
  • Retail/Apparel - "Ton in bearish phase"
  • Auto Dealers - Bearish phase
  • Food/Beverage/Tobacco/Household Products/Alcohol - Bearish phase
  • Restaurants - "In bear market for a long while"
  • Payroll Stocks (ADP, Paychex) - Bear markets
  • Transports - Bearish
  • Housing - Bearish
  • Big Biotech - Bearish (except Regeneron today)
  • Managed Care - "Big bear market"
  • Exchanges (CME, CBOE) - Weak

Leading Stocks 🚀

  • NVIDIA - +$10 to $200+ (20+ partnership announcements at GTC)
  • Regeneron - +$64 to $654 (still down 40% from Aug '24 high of $1,211)
  • Wayfair - +$20 on great earnings growth

Lagging Stocks 📉

  • Zebra Tech - -$36 on earnings
  • Commvault - -$28 to $145 on earnings
  • Abercrombie & Fitch - $165 → $74 in 10 months
  • Cava Group - $172 (Nov '24) → $62 now
  • United Rentals - "Gagging"
  • Lululemon - "Absolutely destroyed"

Gary's Positioning 💰

  • Avoiding ALL bearish areas listed above
  • Not stating buys, but clearly positioned in AI/semis/Big Tech
  • Watching earnings reactions closely this monster week
  • "You better be listening to us on what to avoid. More now. More now."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

"We're not saying the same thing is going to happen. We're just telling you that some of those characteristics of narrowness in the market are at hand. They're not looking to show. They're here." Gary explicitly warns that 1999-style concentration is present - institutions sold everything and bought select stocks that got "over-owned, over-loved, over-priced" before the cycle ended. "If it stays narrow and the good stuff tops out, you'll be hearing from us."

Key Observations 💡

  • NVIDIA = The Market: "Is NVIDIA going to be involved with every S&P 500 company?" 20+ announcements in one day
  • 600-Stock Breakdown: Gary's middle screen shows massive swaths of market in bearish phases while indices up
  • Breadth Disaster: "Advanced declines on NASDAQ were worse and worse throughout the whole day" - 1,782 up vs 2,709 down
  • Value Isn't Happening: "If you had 10-20 best stocks in restaurants, insurance, transports, retail, autos - you're getting smoked"
  • Earnings Wild Card: "Good will be bad, bad will be good" - Regeneron destroyed for months, gaps up $64 today
  • Jay Powell Tomorrow: Fed Chair speaking Wednesday

Monday, October 27, 2025

THE 1999 ENDGAME WARNING

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 27, 2025 (Monday)


📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2025 - THE 1999 ENDGAME WARNING

Market Action - Big Tech Dominates Despite Terrible Breadth

  • NASDAQ: +432 (gapped up)
  • NASDAQ 100: +463
  • Advance/Declines: 24 up, 20 down (terrible!)
  • S&P: Broke out Friday but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA

Gary: "How do you go up that much? Meta +$12, Microsoft +$8, Tesla +$18, NVIDIA +$5.50, Google +$9."


🚨 GARY'S EXPLICIT 1999 COMPARISON

The Historical Pattern - Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000

NASDAQ: 2,966 → 5,132 (65% gain in 4.5 months) S&P 500: 1,363 → 1,527 (only 12% gain!) DOW: 10,729 → 9,928 (DOWN 7-8%!)

Gary: "It became the most one-note market I really have ever seen. Housing stocks went down to one times earnings."

Why It Happened - Institutional Fear

Portfolio managers knew tech valuations were "ridiculous" but executives pressured them: "How the hell do you own these Dow stocks? Why don't you own the hot stuff?"

Result: "They want to keep their jobs. So sell toll brothers and buy pets.com."

Cisco Prediction: Barron's writer said Cisco would drop 80%, everyone laughed. He was 100% right.

Intel Labor Day 2000: Day after Labor Day got downgraded. "That's when all hell broke loose."


⚠️ CURRENT MARKET - "WE'RE GETTING THERE"

Gary's Assessment:

"We're not even close to the one-note type market we saw from 99-2000. No, we're not. We're getting there. We're moving towards it."

Current Warning Signs:

  • S&P breaks out but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA
  • NASDAQ +432 but advance/declines 24 up, 20 down
  • Seven stocks = 60%+ of NASDAQ 100 driving entire market
  • "My left screen of technology stocks that are weaker can't even budge and more are breaking down"

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

The Big 7 + Semiconductors

  • Meta: +$12 | Microsoft: +$8 | Tesla: +$18 | NVIDIA: +$5.50 | Google: +$9 | Amazon: reports this week
  • Qualcomm: +$18 (up $34 at highs) on AI chip announcement
  • Semiconductor equipment makers, data storage, data centers

Energy for AI

GEV and VST "on the weak side"


🔴 LAGGING SECTORS - BEAR MARKETS EVERYWHERE

Gary's List: Restaurants, housing/housing-related, consumer staples (most), insurance, travel-related, payroll stocks (ADP/Paychex), auto dealers, truckers, regional banks, lenders, retail (mostly)

Gary: "Fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at, at this juncture."

Rare Earth Stocks - 70% CRASH

"Down 70% in the last 10 business days. We hope you listen to us. Everything's great with China now. There's no 100% tariff. We told you that."


🚀 LEADING STOCKS

The Big 7

Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA, Google dominating

Qualcomm

+$18 on AI chip news

Retail Bright Spots

Blue Barn, Ross Stores at new yearly highs


📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, most retail, rare earth stocks (-70% in 10 days)


💰 GARY'S MAJOR STRATEGY SHIFT - TARIFF THREATS

New Stance on Tariff Announcements:

"On that day [China tariff threat], we sold a little, and I ain't ever sell them again. They ain't doing it, they're full of crap."

"There's no way into an election year they're doing 100% tariff on China because that will be their doom. Recession, contraction, market drop."

New Strategy:

"So the next bad day, when they announce a big tariff, I may buy, I just may buy blindly."


🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary delivered his most explicit 1999 warning yet, walking through the exact pattern: NASDAQ up 65% (Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000) while Dow fell 7-8%. Current market is "getting there, moving towards it" with terrible breadth (24 up, 20 down despite +432), only 53% of S&P above 50-day MA, and Big 7 comprising 60%+ of NASDAQ 100. He detailed how institutional fear forced portfolio managers to buy overvalued tech to keep their jobs despite knowing it would crash. CapEx promises now far exceed 1999 levels. Gary warns "you best keep listening because if this becomes more 1999-ish, it shall be an endgame." However, he's now convinced tariff threats are bluffs in election year and may buy blindly next time.


💡 KEY OBSERVATIONS

On AI CapEx: "With the numbers being bandied about by these AI-type names on CapEx, I still remember 99, it was nothing in 99 compared to what the promises are these days. Boy, they better come out with these numbers because if they don't, uh-oh."

On Too Many AI Chip Makers: "You now have Qualcomm and Alibaba and Baidu and Nvidia and AMD. How many companies now are going to make AI chips?"

Full Disclosure: "We are not saying 1999 is going to happen. We are not saying we're going into an 80% drop. We're just telling you it's becoming more and more one note. And we're just telling you there's fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at."


📅 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS

Big Tech Week: Google (Tuesday), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta - all the Big 7 reporting

Sunday, October 26, 2025

BANK REGULATIONS RELAXED, BULLS REJOICE

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 24, 2025 (Friday)


📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2025 - BANK REGULATIONS RELAXED, BULLS REJOICE

Market Action - Goldman Drives Dow

  • Dow: Up significant (Goldman +$33 = 215 Dow points!)
  • NASDAQ: Up
  • S&P: Up
  • Semiconductors: Strong

The Big Story: Administration announced relaxing banking regulations and capital requirements

💰 GOLDMAN SACHS = 215 DOW POINTS

Gary's Math Lesson:

  • Goldman up $33 today = 4.4% = 215 Dow points
  • If Coca-Cola (at ~$70) went up same 4.4% = only 20 Dow points
  • Why? "Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow"
  • Verizon at $39 → Zero would = 260 Dow points
  • Goldman at $780 → Zero would = 5,000 Dow points

Gary: "You got to be very careful when we measure the Dow. We recognize that it's stupid. How do you have a Verizon at $39 and Goldman Sachs at $780? Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow points than a Verizon."


🏦 BANKS RALLY ON REGULATION NEWS

The Announcement

Administration relaxing:

  • Banking regulations
  • Capital requirements

Bank Reactions

Goldman Sachs: +$33 (4.4%) - 215 Dow points

JP Morgan: +$5.90 (2%) - Still significant

Morgan Stanley: Not bad

Wells Fargo: Not bad

Bank of America & Citigroup: "Kind of, sort of"

Regional Banks: "A little bit better too" but have been weak

Gary's Take: "Didn't have really good reactions in JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs [on earnings], but the reactions in others better."


🚨 GARY'S FRUSTRATION - GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE

Argentine Beef Deal - "Make Argentina Great"

Representative Mark Alford (R-Missouri) publicly broke with Trump:

  • Administration allowing 4x current amount of Argentine beef imports
  • At reduced tariffs
  • Alford: This "betrays American ranchers"

Gary's Reaction:

"All of a sudden, MAGA is make Argentina great. And that's not a reach on just this subject. The reason the president is doing this is because Argentina's got some problems. And he loves this guy, Millet, who runs Argentina. But what does that do? It hurts the ranchers here. It undercuts them completely."

"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef?"

Government Taking Crypto Mining Positions

Latest announcement about government getting involved in crypto mining

Gary: "Don't worry that his family is net-deep involved with the mining of crypto."

Government Taking Quantum Positions

"Announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies."

Gary's Core Message:

"We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites. If this was a lefty, you'd be pissed off that government is getting their hands in all kinds of private industry and names and some other names of no-sales."


💥 JAY POWELL REPRINTING MONEY

The Fed Announcement

Fed will STOP letting bonds roll off balance sheet

  • Had been reducing from $9 trillion down to ~$7 trillion (fake money)
  • NOW: Will start buying bonds again = Reprinting money

Gary's Explanation:

"They printed to $9 trillion. Took that conjured up money, not real money, and bought up the whole frickin' bond market, taking the 10-year yield down to a half percent. Bought bonds with fake money. Which created the 3% mortgage, which created all the distortions in housing."

"They've been doing the right thing by letting it run off. So in other words, oh, here's today. They're not going to let it roll off anymore, which means he's going to take that money, fake money, conjured up money, and reprint."

Market Reaction to Fed News

  • 10-year yield dropped
  • Market rallied (easier money = good for Wall Street)
  • Housing, travel, financials did better

Gary's Warning:

"The market's at or near the highs and he's reprinting money, which is going to create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even that worse when all's said and done."

"Jay Powell, again, another person with how did you get this type of power, is now going to stop the roll-off because he says blah, blah, blah, blah, blah is making him do it."


🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Banks - Regulation Relief

  • Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BofA, Citi all up
  • Regional banks better (but still weak overall)

Rate-Sensitive Sectors (Fed Reprinting)

  • Housing: Better with 10-year yield down
  • Travel: Better
  • Financials: Generally better

Semiconductors

  • Continuing strength

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Agriculture/Ranching

  • Argentine beef deal undercuts US ranchers
  • Tariff hypocrisy

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Goldman Sachs

+$33 = 215 Dow points (drove the Dow)

JP Morgan

+$5.90

Other Big Banks

Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo up on regulation news


📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Not specifically mentioned this show - focus was on bank rally and Fed policy


💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Watching: Government interference increasing across multiple fronts

Concerned About:

  1. $2.5 trillion deficit spending
  2. Fed reprinting money (creating bigger bubbles)
  3. Government positions in private companies
  4. Tariff inconsistencies (Argentina example)
  5. Family conflicts of interest (crypto)

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is increasingly alarmed that Fed reprinting money at market highs will "create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done." The combination of $2.5 trillion deficits, Fed balance sheet expansion after briefly contracting, and government taking positions in private companies (crypto mining, quantum, no-sales stocks) while family members benefit creates a dangerous setup. The banking regulation relief is positive short-term but doesn't address the structural issues. Gary sees Jay Powell as someone who "caused the inflation" with original $9 trillion printing, created "3% mortgages and distortions in housing," and now is reprinting at market highs which historically ends badly.


💡 GARY'S KEY FRUSTRATIONS

On Government Overreach

"There's not a day that goes by because I'm not done. Today, the latest. We're not even sure, but announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies. So just letting you know. We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites."

On Tariff Hypocrisy

"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef? That's because he wants more to come in here. That means there'll be less to pay here for that, which screws the farmers here."

On Fed Printing

"Taking over. Where did all these people get to the point where somebody can print the $9 trillion, where a government can run $2 trillion deficits, $1.2 trillion to interest."

On Healthcare (Obamacare)

"Obamacare premiums will be rising an average of 30% just next year. Barack Obama, who got the Nobel Peace Prize just as he got into the White House, was treated with kid gloves and just another great liar from the White House."

"If it was the Affordable Care Act, why do you need subsidies? Because they lied. They're liars."

On NYC Mayor Race

Hakeem Jeffries endorsing candidate Gary calls "a racist, Jew-hating, anti-Semitic, Israel-hating dolt" who "thinks he's smart enough to run supermarkets in New York City, and control prices of housing there, and thinks buses should be free."


📊 THE BIG PICTURE

Gary's Core Message: "So there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. Obamacare premiums next year, 30% higher. We hope it works out."

Federal Register Pages (Government Regulations):

  • 2024: 107,262 pages
  • Gary: "Proposed and final rules, public notices, executive orders, proclamations. You think we're overly regulated? Our forefathers are turning over the grave."

US Debt: $38 trillion

Thursday, October 23, 2025

IMPRESSIVE COMEBACK - BREAKOUT WATCH

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 23, 2025 (Wednesday)


📅 WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2025 - "IMPRESSIVE COMEBACK" - BREAKOUT WATCH

Market Action - Strong Rally

  • Dow: +144 (Honeywell contributed 90 points)
  • NASDAQ: Up big, approaching breakout
  • NASDAQ 100: Up, only 100 points from breakout
  • Semiconductors (SOX): "They jammed the semis today" - strong
  • Transports: Down 300 (Ryder -$22)

Context: Yesterday down 400, finished down 200. Today strong comeback.

🚨 BREAKOUT LEVELS - GARY'S WATCHLIST

If These Break, "Another Leg Up, Maybe a Good One":

  • NASDAQ: Above 23,120 (the high from two Fridays ago before tariff crash)
  • NASDAQ 100: Above 25,196 (only 100 points away!)
  • SOX (Semiconductors): Above 6,890-6,940
  • S&P 500: Above 6,765

Gary's Take:

"I'm impressed. I'm impressed. And a break above those levels should probably lead to another leg up of unknown price, unknown time."

"If the semiconductors break above that, well, there you go with the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100."


🎢 EARNINGS SEASON INSANITY - WILD REVERSALS

Tesla - $36 Reversal in One Day

  • At Open: Down $26 to $413.90 (first 5-minute bar at lows)
  • At Close: UP $10
  • Total Swing: $36 reversal

Earnings: 31% drop in earnings Market's Story: "Don't worry about the cars. It's all about robo-taxis and robots now"

Gary: "If Tesla was selling popcorn, the stock instead of being at $449, would probably be 70."

IBM - Big Dow Reversal

  • At Open: Down $25 to $263 (~160 Dow points down)
  • At Close: Down only $2.50
  • Reversed very well

United Rentals - 20-Minute Rollercoaster

  • Gap down to $937: Down $53
  • Within 20 minutes hit $991: Rallied $51 (down only $2)
  • Finished: Down $77
  • One day: Drop $53, rally $51, drop $75

Gary: "This is what we get to deal with sometimes around earnings season. Yippee yay yay."

Honeywell - 5 Years of Nothing, Then Moves

  • Flat since 2020 (5 years)
  • Recently $241 → $200
  • Today: Up $14 on single-digit earnings (contributed 90 of Dow's 144 points)

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductors & Tech - "THEY JAMMED THE SEMIS"

  • SOX strong, approaching breakout level
  • AI stocks: "Boy, it's getting distributed. They just jumped all over it today."
  • Get-backs everywhere: "Down 15 yesterday, up 11 today"

Software - Waking Up?

  • Been dormant for weeks
  • Trading where it was in July
  • Gary: "If that can get going, that shall add to the good action in technology"

Oil & Energy - Sanctions Boost

  • Oil up $3 on Russia sanctions
  • About 15 oil names at/near new yearly highs
  • Reason: "Cost the same to bring out. You get to charge more to send it out. Margin expansion."

Gary's Caution: "I don't know if I would trust it because I don't know how long they keep the sanctions on Russia"


🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Transports - Down 300 Today

  • Ryder (R): Down $22, big breakdown (vehicle leasing)
  • Sector continues weakness

Quantum Stocks - Still Be Careful

  • Crashed 30-60% in 6 days
  • Today: Up on Wall Street Journal report (administration taking positions)
  • Yahoo Finance said WSJ wrong
  • WSJ said Yahoo wrong
  • Stocks bounced but still way down

Gary's Warning: "We have no edge when you go up and then drop 30 to 60 percent in six days. You're always going to probably bounce a little bit. Be careful."


🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Big Earners Today

  • Honeywell: +$14 (90 Dow points, flat since 2020)
  • Tesla: Down $26 → Finished UP $10 ($36 reversal)
  • IBM: Reversed from -$25 to only -$2.50

Oil Stocks

  • 15 names at/near new yearly highs on Russia sanctions

Semiconductors

  • Strong across the board

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Earnings Losers

  • United Rentals: Down $77 after wild swings
  • Ryder (R): Down $22, breakdown
  • Blackstone: Bad reaction
  • Decker's: Big bear market, down in aftermarket
  • Ford: Down couple percent aftermarket

Aftermarket Movers

  • Intel: Up couple bucks (10% owned by government now)
  • Ford: Down couple percent

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Watching Breakout Levels: Not predicting, will react if they break

On Government Positions in Companies:

"We would not be happy if we don't like any of this socialism. Sorry. Remember what we have said to you. What goes around comes around. Tariff policy. What if a Marxist takes over the White House in 28? What are they going to do with tariff policy?"

"Taking positions in companies? I'm not happy. I don't want to see it. This should not be that mix, ladies and gentlemen."


🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is watching critical breakout levels after an impressive comeback from yesterday's 400-point drop. If NASDAQ breaks 23,120, NASDAQ 100 breaks 25,196, and semiconductors break 6,890-6,940, he expects "another leg up of unknown price, unknown time." The earnings season volatility (Tesla $36 reversal, United Rentals wild swings) shows extreme emotions but also resilience. Software waking up from dormancy could add fuel. However, quantum stocks crashing 30-60% in 6 days and transports breaking down show speculation unwinding and economic concerns. For now, bullish IF breakouts occur, but earnings season creating massive daily volatility. Next week brings the big tech earnings (Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) which will be critical.


📅 UPCOMING EARNINGS - NEXT WEEK

The Big Tech Week:

  • Apple
  • Amazon
  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • Meta

Also: Jay Powell announcement

Gary: "Keep in mind, everything's reporting earnings."


💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

On the Comeback

"After that Friday, hell no. Yesterday, we were down 400, finished down 200. And I'm thinking, okay, we finished pretty good. We'll probably have an update today. But they jammed the semis today."

On Earnings Volatility

"A lot of Jell-O moving on the plate. This is what we get to deal with sometimes around earnings season."

On Breakouts

"If we don't break out, we don't break out. We're not predicting. We'll react if it does."

On Tesla's Story

"The story is, well, don't worry about the cars. It's all about robo-taxis and robots now, or whatever the robo thing is. And the market certainly believes it because the numbers stink."

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

GOLD CRASHES, SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 21, 2025 (Monday)


📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2025 - GOLD CRASHES, SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING

Market Action

  • Dow: Up 218 (heavyweight stocks: 3M +$75, Salesforce helped)
  • S&P: Flat
  • NASDAQ: Down
  • Russell 2000: Down
  • SOX (Semiconductors): Finally down day after big run
  • Transports: Up

Gary: "It was very Dow-ish. What we mean by that is, we mentioned 3M. Salesforce.com looks like the stock has finally bottomed after a bear market of many, many months."


💥 GOLD CRASHES 6.25% - "THE AIR CAME OUT"

Gold's Setup and Fall

18-Week Range: Gold stuck at $316-317 resistance The Breakout: Gold miners broke out first (bullish signal), then gold broke out 5-6 days later The Parabolic Move: Late September, went "7pm to 1am on a clock" - nearly vertical TODAY: GLD dropped $26 (6.25%)

Why Gary Sold (8 Days Ago)

  1. Sentiment Off Charts: Investment banks NOW recommending 10-20% allocations AFTER three massive moves
  2. Ridiculously Extended: "Very ridiculously extended to the upside"
  3. Dollar Strengthening: Starting to turn the corner

Gary's Reaction:

"We sold like 8 days ago. We really thought it was a one hell of a sell signal. We were wrong. And then came Friday, we thought it was another big sell signal, and we were wrong because they gapped it up yesterday. Well, today, let's call it the air came out on a near-term basis."

Current Status

  • Gold miners now weaker than the metal (bearish)
  • Highs of yesterday "could be it for now. Possibly. Maybe could be."
  • If corrective work happens, Gary will look to get back in
  • "We're not so sure the move's over. But pretty decent chance the highs of yesterday could be it for now."

🚨 SPECULATION BUBBLE POPPING - NO-SALES STOCKS CRASHING

Rare Earth Stocks Collapsing

Example 1: $32 → $16 in 6 days (50% drop) Example 2: $81 → $34 in 3-5 days
Example 3: $44 → $26 in 6 days

Gary: "The bloom is coming off the rose right now."

Nuclear Stocks (No Sales) Crashing

Example 1: $47 → $38 in 4 days (no sales) Example 2: $61 → $42 in 4 days (no sales) Example 3: $194 → $139 in 5 days - Still has $20.5 billion market cap with NO SALES

Quantum Computing Stocks Dropping

Example: $58 → $40 in 3-4 days

  • CEO said they won't have "scale" (sales) for a decade
  • Office is in a strip shopping center

Gary's Warning:

"If you do not have your wits about you and you fall into the trap of froth and speculation and just buy anything at any price, wow. Most of the noise is after the move."

The GameStop Lady Story

Gary got call from ~80-year-old woman during GameStop mania:

  • Stock already up 6x in a week
  • She asked if she should buy
  • He warned about risk
  • She said "what if it goes higher?"
  • While on phone, stock went up 5% more
  • She got mad at him
  • Next day was the climactic move, then crashed

Gary: "This is what we mean by losing your head. That's what happens in markets."


🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Gold & Gold Miners

  • GLD: Down $26 (6.25%)
  • Gold miners weaker than metal now

Down and Out Tech - Bounced Today

  • Various beaten-down tech stocks bounced
  • While stronger tech came in

AI Energy Plays - Weak

Symbols mentioned: GEV, TLN, CEG, VST

  • "Got some of the construction stuff of AI. You know, the data centers and all that crap."
  • "Froth really coming off"

Banks

  • "Not very good action in some of the banks today. The big banks."

No-Sales Speculation Stocks - CRASHING

  • Rare earth materials
  • Nuclear (no sales)
  • Quantum computing
  • Dollar stocks that went to $6 in 4 days now reversing

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

"Revenge of the Nerds" - Beaten Down Bouncing

Housing: Bounced Insurance: Bounced Economically Sensitive: Bounced Restaurants: Some bounced Down and Out Financials: Some bounced Retail: Even Lululemon up $9 (though down from $423 in January to $181)

Why? These are the areas Gary's been telling people to avoid - having bounce day

Semiconductors (SOX)

  • Finally had down day after massive run
  • Still in uptrend overall

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Dow Components

3M: Up $12.60 (~75 Dow points)

  • Trading where it was in 2017 (8 years of no gains)
  • At Trump tariff crash lows, had to go back to 2004

Salesforce.com: Up big (~60 Dow points)

  • "Looks like the stock has finally bottomed after a bear market of many, many, many, many months"
  • Weak going back to 2020

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Crashed Speculation Stocks

Beyond Meat: Up 146% today (then up big aftermarket)

  • News: Walmart deal to increase availability at 2,000 stores
  • Gary: "That plant ain't happening. Stock dropped 99% or something like that."

No-Sales Stocks Crashing (see Speculation Bubble section above)

Tech Getting Hit

  • AI energy plays (GEV, TLN, CEG, VST)
  • AI construction/data center stocks

Aftermarket Movers

Netflix: Missed by $1.09, but guided Q4 above consensus

  • Closed Thursday $1,183, closed today $1,241
  • Aftermarket: $1,183 (down $58, back to Thursday lows)

Intuitive Surgical: Up $110 to $573 aftermarket (+24%)

  • Beats by 41 cents, revenues rose 23%
  • "That'll come out of a bear market quickly"

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Out of Gold

  • Sold 8 days ago for profit
  • Thought he nailed the top - wrong twice
  • Today finally dropped
  • Made $55 in 5 weeks on the trade

Watching Speculation Collapse

Not buying the no-sales stocks, just watching them crash

Still Monitoring

  • Tech sectors for strength
  • Down and out areas for bottoming patterns

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is watching the air come out of the speculation bubble (no-sales stocks in rare earth, nuclear, quantum computing crashing 30-50% in days) which is a classic late-stage market signal. Gold's 6.25% crash after extreme sentiment readings suggests even "safe haven" trades are rolling over. The fact that indices were mixed (Dow +218, NASDAQ down) while more established names bounced shows rotation rather than broad strength. Gary's sentiment indicators fired correctly on gold - when investment banks recommend 10-20% allocations AFTER massive moves, that's typically the top. He's not predicting a crash but notes these are the types of sentiment extremes and speculation blow-offs that precede major corrections.


💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

On Sentiment and Cycle Work

"Gold for 18 weeks was range-bound. The gold miners broke out while gold was just sitting range-bound. And as we have taught you, typically when the miners lead, that's bullish for gold."

"What happened recently, more and more people that I don't even know were asking me about gold. More and more and more and more were asking me about gold. And that was after a big move up."

"Investment bankers, brokerages are actually coming out and saying you need to have 10% of your assets in gold or 20%. Just remember, these brokerage firms are marketing. They're always marketing."

On Speculation Warnings

"If you do not have your wits about you and you fall into the trap of froth and speculation and just buy anything at any price, wow."

"When a company has no sales, never had sales, been public 15 years, has $10B market cap, it's loony. But then it doubles to $20B market cap."

"Most of the noise is after the move."

On Market Action

"It was a mixed day. And how's that for an answer? A mixed day."

"Revenge of the nerds day. Housing bounced. Insurance bounced. Economically sensitive bounced. You had some restaurants bounce today. You had some down and out financials bounce."


📊 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS

Tuesday AM

  • Texas Instruments (reported - down $11 aftermarket)
  • Capital One (up few bucks aftermarket)

This Week

  • GM: Had good move on earnings (5x average volume)
  • Ford: Had good day (reports in 2 days)

Gary: "We will just be ready for anything."


Previous Update: October 17, 2025 (Friday) - See below for history

Sunday, October 19, 2025

THE WACKY WEEK IN REVIEW

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 17, 2025 (Friday)


📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2025 - "THE WACKY WEEK IN REVIEW"

Market Action - Up for the Week

  • Dow: +238 to close
  • S&P 500: +35 to close
  • NASDAQ: +117 to close
  • NASDAQ 100: +160 to close

Week was up because last Friday got trashed on tariff talk, then gapped up Monday

Tariff Drama Again

Overnight: Futures down 400 on Dow

Trump Interview: Asked about 100% China tariff starting Nov 1st - He said "No" (pulled it)

Gary's Reaction:

"I loathe the president using threatened massive tax policy and then pulls it off and puts it on and pulls it off and puts it on. I'm just hoping he doesn't crash the market one day with it. He did it once."


🚨 MAJOR WARNING: More New LOWS Than HIGHS

The Numbers Today

NASDAQ:

  • 54 new yearly highs
  • 126 new yearly lows

NYSE: More new yearly lows than yearly highs

Gary: "That is weird, ladies and gentlemen. Very weird."

Market Concentration Hiding Weakness:

  • Apple: +$5
  • NVIDIA: +$1.50
  • Microsoft: +$2
  • Gary: "You get five names up and 20 names down, the market will still be up nicely because of those just five names"

💥 BITCOIN/CRYPTO BREAKDOWN

Bitcoin Broke 50-Day MA Monday, Straight Down All Week

  • Now trading below December 2024 highs
  • IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): $61.75 last Dec → $60.47 today
  • About 15% below recent highs

MicroStrategy: $457 → $289 since July (Gary warned about this)

Ethereum: Also avoid

Gary's Warning:

"The last bear market watched it go down 75% and the touters say it could never go into a bear market again. No sales, no revenues, no earnings, no product, no services. Just letting you know. Be careful."


📉 MORE NAMES BREAKING DOWN - "FINDING MORE ICK"

Recent Leaders Rolling Over

Oracle (ORCL):

  • Wednesday: Screamed up $305→$321 on investor conference
  • Thursday: Dropped $22
  • Gary: "No longer on my list of setups to break out"

Goldman Sachs: Trading below 50-day MA after earnings

JP Morgan: Trading below 50-day MA after earnings

Uber: Back below 50-day MA (down 9-10% from highs)

AI Names Getting Crushed:

  • Astralabs (ALAB): "Go check what they did to this stock this week"
  • Kruppel: "Gone. History, out of here."
  • CRDO (Credo): Down Tuesday, jumped back today

Gary's Definition: "Breaking support and/or moving averages. We're finding more names just going bye-bye."


🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Regional Banks - Credit Concerns Continue

ZION (Zion's): Got upgraded today AFTER getting smashed yesterday (bearish)

KRE (Regional Bank ETF): Bearish pattern

Credit Worry: Private equity companies in bear markets and worsening. Regional banks talking about "credit and potentially fraud on credit"

Gary's Warning:

"If anything could get the markets, it's one of those credit blowups. We're predicting nothing. We're just interpreting for you that a lot of names in those areas acting troublesome, with some getting smoked."

Consumer Staples - "Dead Money"

Food, beverage, tobacco, household products: All green today (defensive bounce) but in bear markets

  • Especially alcohol stocks

Best Looking: Ecolab (cleaning/sanitizing for hotels/restaurants)

Insurance - Still Bearish

Progressive: $289→$220, up $4 today (anemic bounce)

Gary: "Regardless that insurance bounced today, it's an avoid."

Restaurants

"Maybe a couple may be bottoming. Not sure yet. But they've been avoids. And I stick with that."

Other Weak Areas (From Earlier This Week)

  • Exchanges
  • Payroll companies
  • Waste management
  • Airlines, cruise lines, hotels
  • Private equity names

🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductors - Still Strong Despite Down Day

  • Down today but "remain pretty darn strong"
  • Were much worse early, finished down only a little

American Express - Big Winner

  • 19% earnings growth, 9% sales growth
  • Market loved it
  • "About 150 down points to the better" (big contributor to Dow +238)

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Mega Cap Tech - Holding Market Up

  • Apple: +$5 today
  • NVIDIA: +$1.50 today
  • Microsoft: +$2 today

American Express

Big earnings beat, strong reaction


📉 LAGGING STOCKS

IPOs Crashing to New Yearly Lows

Chime Financial: $27 IPO, opened $45 → Now $17

GEMI: $28 IPO, opened $46 → Now $19

Firefly: $45 IPO, opened $74 (early August) → Now $26

Klarna: $40 IPO, opened $57 → Now $35

Charter Communications: Cable TV company at new yearly low

Staffing/Consulting at New Lows (AI Impact?)

Manpower: Staffing, new yearly low

Robert Half: Staffing, $78→$31, new yearly low

Booz Allen: Consulting, new yearly low

Other New Yearly Lows

  • Helen of Troy (hair dryers)
  • Weyerhaeuser (timber)
  • CarMax (auto sales)
  • Boise Cascade (wood products): $155→$71
  • Brown and Brown (insurance brokers)

Bitcoin/Crypto

  • Bitcoin below December 2024 highs
  • MicroStrategy: $457→$289 since July
  • Ethereum weak

Failed Breakouts

  • Oracle: Yesterday's surge reversed
  • Goldman Sachs: Below 50-day MA
  • JP Morgan: Below 50-day MA
  • Uber: Below 50-day MA

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Gold: Thought top was in last Thursday, then had 5 up days in a row. Finally down today. Not calling top anymore after being wrong.

Focus: Watching for more names breaking support/moving averages

Avoiding:

  • Bitcoin/crypto
  • Regional banks
  • Consumer staples
  • Insurance
  • Restaurants (mostly)
  • IPOs that opened hot

🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is increasingly concerned about deteriorating market internals despite indices holding up. More names are breaking down, more new yearly lows than highs despite indices being up, and credit concerns are emerging in regional banks and private equity. The Big 7 tech stocks are masking significant weakness underneath. Critical support levels: NASDAQ 22,109, S&P 6,564, Dow 45,725 - if these break, it's trouble. Gary warns if Trump actually implements 100% tariffs instead of just threatening them, "all hell will break loose." For now, as long as Big 7 hold and indices stay above 50-day MAs, market continues higher, but "finding more and more ICK" underneath.


📊 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH

If these break, big trouble:

  • NASDAQ: 22,109
  • S&P 500: 6,564
  • Dow: 45,725

Gary: "We're okay. Notwithstanding some ICK underneath the surface. And notwithstanding the president."


💡 GARY'S KEY OBSERVATIONS

Market Breadth Deteriorating

"There are more new yearly lows in the market than new yearly highs today. With the Dow up 238, the S&P up 35, NASDAQ up 117, NASDAQ 100 up 160. Do I have to repeat that?"

More Names Breaking Down

"We started with the crypto. When you go do your scans, anything breaking below the 50 day trouble, anything breaking support, and we're watching for the group moves also."

"We're finding more names that were in shape, now going into downtrends. Breaking support and or moving averages."

The 50-Day Moving Average Rule

"As long as they trade below the 50-day moving average, they're out of play. They cannot ascent until they get back above it. Simple as that."

Credit Concerns Building

"There is worry about credit on Wall Street. A lot of what we call these private equity buyout type companies are in bear markets. And they have been worsening."

Big Indices Still Okay... For Now

"The big indices continue, remain above the vitally all-important 50-day moving average. They have teased trouble in the last few days. They have held so far."

"If the big indices break the 50-day moving average, along with deteriorating amount of names and internals, you will be hearing from us."

Friday, October 17, 2025

REGIONAL BANK CRISIS

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 16, 2025


📅 THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2025 - REGIONAL BANK CRISIS

Market Action - Volatility Continues

  • Dow: -300 points to 45,952
  • S&P 500: Down (specific close not mentioned)
  • Volatility: Big wild swings continue since last Friday

Adam (Guest Host): "Typically, when you see big wild swings, that shows investors are getting nervous. It doesn't mean a big sell-off is coming or a crash, but volatility has picked up."


🚨 MAJOR STORY: Regional Banks Crushed on Credit Concerns

Two Banks Collapse Double Digits

Zion's Bancorp (ZION): Down double digits on bad loan news Western Alliance Bank (WAL): Down double digits

The Problem:

  • Bad loans discovered, possibly fraud
  • One bank: Collateral client used "wasn't there"
  • Other bank: $50 million issue

Broader Banking Weakness

KRE (Regional Bank ETF): Broke below 200-day moving average on ginormous volume

XLF (Big Banks ETF):

  • Broke 50-day MA few days ago
  • Rallied back, hit resistance
  • Collapsed today heading toward 200-day MA

Jefferies (JEF):

  • Not a regional bank but down hard
  • Broke 200-day MA ~8 trading days ago
  • Breaking down more, heading back to April lows

Adam's Take: "There's a concern here about the health of the economy and about the banks, the loans. We'll see if this spreads and gets worse."


🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Tech, AI & Semiconductors - Still Strong

  • Money continuing to flow into these areas
  • "Areas to look at that are working for now"

Oracle - Big Intraday Move

Oracle (ORCL):

  • Huge jump mid-day on analyst meeting
  • Cloud numbers up, good news
  • Had ginormous 35-36% gap up Sept 10 on earnings
  • Made Larry Ellison richer than Elon Musk
  • Been consolidating since

Data Storage

  • Money flowing in

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Financials - MAJOR CONCERN

Regional Banks:

  • Zion's (ZION), Western Alliance (WAL) crushed
  • KRE broke 200-day MA on huge volume
  • Credit quality concerns

Big Banks:

  • XLF heading toward 200-day MA
  • Jefferies breaking down

Gary's Morning Report - "What is NOT?" (Areas to Avoid)

Insurance - In downtrends

Housing - Distribution showing

Travel Group:

  • Airlines - Weak
  • Cruise lines - Weak
  • Hotels - Weak
  • Booking.com (BKNG) - Weak

Retail - "Good amount" weak, some bounced but overall not good

Auto Dealers - Avoid

Private Equity - Weak

Consumer:

  • Food, beverage, tobacco - Weak
  • Household products - Weak
  • Alcohol - Weak

Restaurants - "Just got mowed down"

Casinos - "Look to have topped"

Exchanges - Weak

Waste Management - Weak

Healthcare:

  • "Still plenty of medicals not in good shape"
  • Managed care: UNH better since crash but still under pressure

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Tech & AI Names

  • Semiconductor stocks
  • AI-related names
  • Data storage companies

Oracle (ORCL)

  • Big jump on cloud news
  • Consolidating after massive Sept 10 gap up

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Regional Banks - CRISIS

  • Zion's Bancorp (ZION): Down double digits on bad loans
  • Western Alliance (WAL): Down double digits on credit issues
  • Jefferies (JEF): Heading back to April lows

Big Banks

  • Struggling across the board

Attempted Breakout Failed

Google: Tried to break out at $256.70 (Sept high), got to $257.58 but sold off with market


⚠️ GOLD WARNING - Don't Chase

Gold Going Vertical

GLD:

  • 17% above its 50-day moving average (huge for big ETF)
  • "Super, super, super extended"
  • Most extended move in decades (since 2011)
  • At new all-time high

Adam's Take: "My opinion, not right now. Let it consolidate. I don't like buying things after a big move up. If you chase, which is buying gold up here in my opinion, it doesn't end well over a long enough period of time."

"I'm expecting once this move pops, we can get just as quick on the way down - easily get a pullback into the 21-day moving average or into the 50-day."


💰 GARY'S POSITIONING

Gary is out today, but his morning report emphasized avoiding the weak sectors listed above and focusing on tech/AI/semiconductor areas that are working.


🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Adam's Assessment: Market seeing heightened volatility after big move up - "normal and healthy to see the market pause, consolidate, digest, pullback." Regional bank credit concerns could spread (contagion risk from 2008), but Fed meeting soon with expected rate cuts which is typically bullish. Market pulled into 50-day MA earlier this week and bounced. Adam taking "a little bit more defensive stance" but not predicting crash - just preparing for possibilities. If regional bank situation spreads, could see more distribution and breaking below 50-day MA. However, Fed cuts near all-time highs typically = bullish tailwind.


💡 ADAM'S KEY ADVICE - EXTENSIVE TRADING PSYCHOLOGY

Historical Context - Market Growth Over Decades

Adam's Long-Term Perspective:

  • 1990 Dow: 2,300 → Today: 45,000
  • 1990 S&P 500: 294 → Today: 6,600
  • 1990 NASDAQ: 322 → Today: 22,540
  • Late 90s Dow: 4,000-5,000 range

"If you would have told me when I started trading in the 90s that the Dow would be where it is today, I'd be like, there's no way that's possible. But the best is yet to come."

Early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis Parallel

"Back then in the early 90s, there was a savings and loans crisis. It's not the regional bank now - it's the two, Zion and WAL, Western Bank Alliance - they're having trouble today. But there was a whole regional bank crisis in the early 90s, and we survived. We got through it."

Position Sizing - The Critical Element

The Problem with Too-Big Positions: "When you have too big of a position in a stock, it causes you to make more emotional decisions and less rational ones. Even if the stock pulls back just a little bit, fear goes through the roof. And then what happens? Panic itself. It's just a normal pullback, but oh my God, I got so much money. The brain turns into scrambled eggs."

The Doctor Analogy: "Think of a doctor. You don't want them looking at how much money they're making every minute while making the incision. You want them to focus on doing the right thing. But with trading, the scoreboard is literally the right thing - you're literally looking at the money you're making and losing at any given time."

The One-Share Solution: "If you're stumbling or having difficulty pulling the trigger, just buy one share and see if you can do the right thing with one share. It's not going to kill you as long as you have stops and you're protected. Once you realize one share is no big deal, go to five, then slowly increase."

Risk Management - The 5-7% Rule

Stop Loss Placement:

  • Use 5-7% stops below entry (Adam's preference)
  • 2-3% stops are "too tight" - you just get chopped up
  • Depends on stock's volatility and normal swings

Know Your Stock's Behavior: "Every stock behaves differently. Some quantum computing stock might be up and down 4-8% in a day multiple times. But Coca-Cola or Pepsi moving 7-8% is abnormally huge for that stock. Know the stock, know the behavior."

The KYC Rule Applied to Stocks: "In finance there's Know Your Customer rule. You've got to know your customer - give them investments suitable for them. Same thing with your stocks. Is a 3% move normal or is 1% big for that stock?"

Planning for All Scenarios

Adam's Approach: "I don't know if the market's going to go up or down a thousand points tomorrow, but I can plan for the possibility of the market having a correction or bear market. And I can plan for the possibility of another leg higher."

Before Entry, Know Your Exit: "I know where I'm going to exit before I enter a position. This way I'm able to protect the capital, protect the portfolio, protect the family. Once you protect the capital, you can grow."

The Win/Loss Math That Matters

Nine Losses, One Win Example: "I lose $1 nine times (minus $9). The 10th trade I make $10. Net net, I'm up $1. The other person has nine wins of $1 each, but the 10th trade loses $10. Net net, they're down $1. But they were right 90% of the time. It doesn't matter. What matters is the bottom line."

Psychological Analysis - Adam's Book

The Third Piece of the Puzzle: "I wrote a book called Psychological Analysis - my contribution to Wall Street. Fundamental and technical analysis are not enough to beat the market in my humble opinion. If they were, everybody would own a few islands in the Caribbean. Something's missing."

What's Covered:

  • Cognitive biases
  • Mental walls ("we all have them")
  • Understanding your relationship with money
  • Emotional triggers
  • How to make rational, non-emotional decisions

"Know yourself, know your psyche. What's your relationship with money? Is it a good one or can it be improved?"

Structure vs. Winging It

The Unsuccessful Trader: "If you sit down with me and say, what do I do? Tell me your trading. 'Oh, I just wing it. I trade on my phone as I'm driving to work, sitting in traffic. I just bought it because it's in the news or it's up a lot.' There's no structure, no rules and regs, no procedures."

The Successful Trader: "The ones that are very successful have structure, and they know how to - they have an edge. The investor's edge."

Emotional vs. Logical Trading

The Cookie Analogy: "We're humans. We're emotional creatures. I know I shouldn't be eating a cookie. Guess what? I ate the cookie anyway. Logically it makes no sense, but I did it anyway."

People Buy What They Like: "People buy stocks, for the most part, they like. I don't know anyone that has discretion over their trading that buys a stock they hate. Don't marry your stocks. Date them."

The Optimist's Mindset

Adam's Philosophy: "Success is a decision. Happiness is a decision. The best is yet to come. Having an optimistic outlook is something I've noticed a lot of successful people have."

Being in Harmony with the Market: "I want to be in harmony with the market. I used to fight the market for a long time. I'm bearish, the market's bullish. Argh! I'd make emotional decisions and get stuck in my head."

The Elevator Analogy - Missing Trades

"I've missed moves because I was not in a good head space or had some external event. And that's okay. It's just like an elevator in a building. There's always another elevator coming. I'm not going to hop in and get angry. Just wait, turn around. Same thing with stocks. There's always another move coming. There's always another monster stock coming."

On Current Market Action

Short-Term Caution: "There's a possibility the market has some backing and filling here. It could break the 50. It could start getting some more distribution, especially if this regional bank situation spreads."

Fed Support Coming: "The Fed is meeting soon and they're expected to cut rates. Typically when the Fed cuts rates, that's bullish for the market. It's a tailwind and it's a strong one."


📊 THE BIG PICTURE

Credit Concerns Emerging: Regional banks showing cracks with bad loans/fraud, reminiscent of early 1990s savings & loan crisis

Volatility Signal: After huge move up since April, big wild swings signal investor nervousness

Fed Support Coming: Rate cuts expected = potential tailwind despite credit concerns

Sector Bifurcation Continues: Tech/AI/semis strong while most other areas weak/bearish

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Government Taking Positions in Companies

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 14, 2025


📅 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2025 - "THEY'RE TAKING OVER"

Market Action - Wild Intraday Swings

  • Dow: Down 600 at 9:45am (45,452) → Up 1,070 points to 46,522 at 2pm → Dropped 250 in 10 minutes → Finished +200
  • NASDAQ: Some "icky" - semiconductors hit at close
  • 10-Year Yield: Dropped again (good for bonds/housing)
  • Bitcoin/Crypto: Weak

What Happened

Two Major Events Drove the Day:

  1. 9am-2pm Rally (+1,070 points): Fed Chair Jay Powell announced Fed will STOP letting bonds roll off balance sheet - essentially reprinting money. This drops interest rates, good for stocks.

  2. 3:40pm Drop (-250 points in 10 minutes): Trump accused China of "economically hostile act" for not buying US soybeans. Semiconductors got hit.


🚨 GARY'S MAJOR RANT: "THEY'RE TAKING OVER"

Government Taking Positions in Companies

Nova Minerals (NVA) - The Latest Example:

  • Up 110% today to $71.84
  • NO SALES - just a "development stage mining company"
  • Announcement: Company "engaged in talks with the President" on critical minerals
  • Stock was moving last week BEFORE announcement (insider trading?)
  • Traded 9M shares today with only 6M float

Other Government-Backed No-Sales Stocks:

  • Mining company: $3→$10, now $2B market cap, NO SALES
  • TMQ: $2→$10.50
  • Another: $7→$30 in 6 days
  • About 30 others moving with no announcements
  • Intel position: Buying occurred before announcement

Gary's Take:

"What the hell's going on here? You're the government. These are private companies. What the hell's going on here?"

"When the music stops, these stocks that have no sales - they all crash. Somebody is going to have their arse if they don't trade out of it."

Fed "Reprinting Money"

Jay Powell's Move Today:

  • Fed was reducing balance sheet (letting bonds roll off from $9T to ~$7T)
  • TODAY: Announced stopping the roll-off
  • Will start buying bonds again with "conjured up, fake money"
  • This caused the 1,000 point rally

Gary's Reaction:

"The market's at or near highs and he's reprinting money, which is going to create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done."

Trump Tariff Power Concerns

Apple Example:

  • Paid $1.9 billion and "had to bend the knees" to get tariff exemption

Gary's Warning:

"Imagine when a Marxist is in the White House and he has that tax power. If you don't think that can happen, I got some Everglades land for you. What are they going to do with their newfound tariff power created by this president? We're screwed."


🟢 LEADING SECTORS

"Revenge of the Worst" - Bounced on Fed News

Housing Stocks - Rates down helped Airlines - Still in downtrends but bounced Cruise Lines - Still in downtrends but bounced
Transports - Bounced Auto Dealers - Bounced

Why? Fed reprinting money = lower interest rates = these rate-sensitive sectors rally

Financials - Wild Day

Banks benefited from rate moves despite earnings:

  • Goldman Sachs: Down 40 at open → Down 2 mid-day → Finished down 16 (reversed $38 from lows)
  • JP Morgan: Down 14 early → Got to flat → Finished down 6

Mining/Critical Minerals - Government-Pumped Theme

  • Nova Minerals (NVA): +110%
  • TMQ: Recent $2→$10.50 move
  • Caterpillar: Strong (mining equipment)
  • Multiple other no-sales mining companies going vertical

🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Semiconductors - Hit at Close

  • NVIDIA: Took hit on China soybean threat
  • Sector sold off into close on Trump-China tensions

Crypto/Bitcoin

  • Weak today
  • Gary warns: "Bitcoin dropped 75% in last bear market. There is no thought another bear market isn't going to happen."

🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Government-Backed No-Sales Mining Stocks

  • Nova Minerals (NVA): +110% to $71.84
  • TMQ: $2→$10.50
  • Various others: $7→$30 in 6 days, $3→$10, etc.

Industrial/Mining Equipment

  • Caterpillar: Strong (benefits from mining theme)

Financials (Relative Strength)

  • Goldman Sachs: Reversed $38 from lows (still finished -16)
  • JP Morgan: Reversed $14 from lows (finished -6)

📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Semiconductors (Hit at Close)

  • NVIDIA: Dropped on China tensions
  • Semiconductor sector: Sold off into close

Crypto

  • Bitcoin: Weak today

💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

What He's Doing

  • Still out of gold - Now up $67 total since he sold Thursday
  • Gary: "Nice sell" (sarcastic - clearly frustrated he missed the move)
  • Watching the no-sales mining stocks but NOT buying them

His Warning on Gold

"Do you know why gold is going up? Think about it." (Implying: massive deficits, money printing, loss of confidence)


🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is increasingly concerned that Fed reprinting money will create bigger bubbles, stating "the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done." He's watching extreme speculation in 30+ no-sales mining stocks being pumped by government announcements, obvious insider trading patterns (volume spikes before announcements), and Trump's continued tariff threats creating daily volatility. The combination of $2.5 trillion deficits, Fed balance sheet expansion, and government interference in markets has Gary warning "they're taking over" and it will end badly for retail investors who chase these no-revenue stocks.


💡 GARY'S KEY FRUSTRATIONS TODAY

1. Government Positions in Private Companies

"I don't want the government taking positions in companies. I don't want them doing that."

2. $2.5 Trillion Deficit

Running rate for this year - blames both Biden (got it to $2T) and Trump (had chance to roll back, didn't)

3. Fed Balance Sheet Expansion

Stopping the roll-off = reprinting money = more bubbles = worse crash later

4. Obvious Insider Trading

Volume picking up in stocks before government announcements, no investigations

5. Trump's "Omnipotence" Concern

After hostage deal success, worried Trump thinks "you can do no wrong" - "that's when you're most vulnerable"


📊 THE BIG PICTURE

Gary's Bottom Line:

  • Fed creating more bubbles with reprinting
  • Government pumping no-sales stocks that will crash
  • Daily tariff threats creating volatility
  • Insider trading obvious but ignored
  • "Somebody is going to have their arse" when these stocks crash

Current Market Status:

  • Major indices near highs despite chaos
  • Rate-sensitive sectors bouncing on Fed news
  • Semiconductors vulnerable to China tensions
  • Speculation extreme in government-backed themes