Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 25, 2025

🎯 GARY'S KEY THEMES (Updated Sept 25)

"Avoid List" Rapidly Expanding - Weakness spreading from restaurants/travel to healthcare, biotech, insurance, crypto
Sector Contagion Pattern - "If anything gets better, we'll tell you. If anything worsens, we'll tell you"
Market Concentration Still Driving - Apple up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
Real-Time Approach - Gary bought/sold Apple for $0.20 profit, took small Russell 2000 position
Technical Levels Matter - Oracle breaking $300, crypto below 50-day moving averages decisive
Selective Strength Remains - "Banks remain fine, semiconductors remain fine" but growth leaders extended

Gary's Big Picture: The avoid list is expanding rapidly as weakness spreads beyond his original restaurant/travel warnings. Still finding selective opportunities but being very tactical with entries and exits.

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS ESCALATING (Sept 24)

"1999 Characteristics Showing Up"

No-Sales Mania Continues: "Too many no-sales companies skyrocket"
Lithium Americas: Up 96% today on government news, NO SALES, Canadian company
Vendor Financing Expanding: Gary seeing more cases of companies investing in customers
AI Spending Numbers: "Gargantuan" predictions - "They better do those numbers"

Gary's Historical Warnings

1999 Parallels: Companies adding ".com" to names, mutual funds changing to "internet funds"
Famous Person's Picks: "10 stocks for future, 8 of 10 had no sales, all blew up"
87 Crash Study: Gary studied crashes, believes in watching what breaks down first

Market Distribution Signs

Leading Names Softening: ALAB, CRDO showing business weakness
Some No-Sales Names: "Clipped 10% today" after big runs
NVIDIA: Giving back Monday's breakout gains (vendor financing concerns?)

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS INTENSIFYING

Oil Prices: "Ticking up" past couple days (Gary very concerned)
Food Inflation: Hershey bags $11.99→$16.99, coffee up, chip bags smaller
Yield/Energy Double Threat: Both rising simultaneously - major cost pressure

Real-World Observations (Sept 19):

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 25) - DISTRIBUTION CONTINUING

Market Concentration: 10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500 (up from 40%)
- Gary's Warning: "490 stocks are 59%" - extreme concentration risk
Apple: Up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
Russell 2000: Gary took small position, down 1% (cautious after getting stopped out twice last year)

Interest Rate Alarm

10-Year Treasury: 4.147% (highest since Fed cut)
Gary's Concern: Rising yields + rising oil = "two most important costs"
Fed Expectations: New Fed member wants 2% Fed funds (currently 4%)
Inflation Signs: Electricity up, food up, package shrinkflation continues

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Travel & Consumer CONFIRMED BEAR MARKETS 🔴

Restaurants: "In bearish phase, bear market, downtrend" - Gary's strongest language yet
- Chipotle: 67→39, Starbucks: 117→83 (closing stores, CEO says "price doesn't matter")
Hotels: "A lot of tops in place" - Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott all topped
Airlines: Continuing weakness - Alaska Air, SkyWest, Delta, American topped
Cruise Lines: Getting weaker
Retail: Continued weakness

Healthcare - MAJOR EXPANSION 🔴

Big Biotech: "Just think they're avoids"
Medical Products & Research: "Bearish" - new category added
Intuitive Surgical: "Past leader, just absolutely destroyed"
Managed Care: UnitedHealth better, but "others stinking up the joint"
Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly still weak

Financial Services - MIXED SIGNALS

Banks: "Remain fine" - one of few bright spots
Insurance: "A lot of insurance stocks, plain old avoids" (expanded weakness)
Private Equity: Continued weakness from prior sessions

Industrial & Utilities - EXPANDING WEAKNESS

Waste Management: "Avoids" - garbage collectors weak
Rails & Truckers: "Most of them avoids" (despite Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger)
Economic Sensitive: WW Granger (tools/lighting/plumbing) "bear market"
Bright Spots: United Rentals strong, Caterpillar strong

Crypto - MAJOR BREAKDOWN 🔴

Bitcoin: Below 50-day moving average, concerning
Ethereum: Down 20% from recent high, "gap down Monday, broke 50-day"
Bitcoin ETFs: IBIT critical level $61.31, GBTC critical level $84.78
MicroStrategy: Down $23, "breaking support levels, much weaker than actual Bitcoin"
Gary's Rule: "Avoid until back above 50-day moving average"

Consumer Staples BEAR MARKETS

Food & Beverage: Confirmed bear market, Coke, Pepsi, Dr Pepper
Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
Tobacco: "Getting hit too" (new weakness)
XLP (Staples ETF): "Not good"

Housing & Interest Rate Sensitive

Housing Stocks: "Another bad day" as rates tick up again
REITs: Under pressure from rising rates

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - SELECTIVE STRENGTH 📈

Apple: STANDOUT - up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
- Gary bought recently, sold for $0.20 profit, will re-enter if needed
- "Quite compelling" action, talk of better sales
Banks: "Remain fine" - holding up well
Semiconductors: "Remain fine" - still in good shape
Oracle: BREAKDOWN - down $17, broke below key $300 level "not thrilling"
- Someone issued rare "sell rating" on the stock
Growth Leaders: "Pulled back harshly" but "only because they got extended"

Small Cap Opportunity

Russell 2000: Gary took small position despite recent breakout pullback
- "We got stopped out twice last year... we just bought a little bit, down 1%"
- Cautious position sizing after previous failures

Commodities - MIXED/CONCERNING

Gold: Some pullback but still in bull trend from 18-week breakout
Oil: Ticking up - Gary's big concern with yields also rising
Bitcoin/Crypto: Bounced previously but now below key moving averages

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

Distribution continuing Sept 25 - weakness expanding beyond initial warnings
Fed policy expectations shifting (new Fed member wants 2% Fed funds)
Concentration risk at extreme levels (10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500)

Watch List

Small Cap: Russell 2000 - Gary took cautious position after previous stops
International: Selective opportunities may emerge
Defensive: May become leadership if growth concentration fails

💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Oracle (ORCL) - BREAKDOWN BELOW SUPPORT: Trading below $300 (Sept 25)

Critical Development: Broke below Gary's key $300 level he was watching
Previous Path: $345 ATH (Sept 10) → $327 (Sept 22) → $306-308 → NOW below $300
Gary's Assessment: "Not thrilling, not great" - received rare analyst "sell rating"
Setup Status: No longer a setup after breaking key support

Apple (AAPL) - NEW LEADERSHIP: Up $4 in weak market (Sept 25)

Status: Only $4 from old highs, showing relative strength
Gary's Action: Bought recently, sold for $0.20 profit, will re-enter if needed
Assessment: "Quite compelling" action with better sales talk

Russell 2000 (Small Caps): Gary took small position despite pullback

History: Got stopped out twice last year on breakout attempts
Current: Down 1% on small position, "not end of world yet"
Strategy: Small position sizing given previous failures

Crypto - AVOID ZONE: All major cryptos below 50-day moving averages

Bitcoin: Below 50-day, needs to reclaim to be buyable
Ethereum: Down 20% from recent high, gap down Monday
Critical Levels: IBIT $61.31, GBTC $84.78 - breaks below would "worsen things"
MicroStrategy: Down $23, "breaking support levels"

Current Broad Market: "Crappy NASDAQ" but Apple showing strength, banks and semis still fine

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

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Thursday, September 25, 2025