It's been years, but I'm back!! New Format. Most Analysis is from Gary Kaulbaum.

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaultbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 19, 2025

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Consumer Staples & Beverages

• Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
  • Reason: Usage of alcohol dropping significantly
• Soft Drinks: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Dr Pepper
  • Status: Bear markets, especially Dr Pepper
  • Note: Coke trading lower than April 2022 levels

Industrial & Transportation

• Rails & Truckers: Described as "pitiful"
• Shipping: UPS (definitely weak), FedEx (not as bad but weak)
• Airlines: Starting to show weakness
  • Alaska Air: Topped out on heavy volume
  • Delta: May be rolling over
• Hotels: Getting "squirrely/mushy"
  • Marriott: On weak side, needs support to hold

Financial Services

• Exchanges: CME Group, CBOE, ICE
  • Status: Bearish phases, some broken
• Payroll Processing: ADP, Paychecks
  • Status: Bearish phases

Healthcare

• Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly
• Medical Devices: Intuitive Surgical (616 → 434, down from 8 months ago)
• Insurance: UnitedHealth bounced but others weak

Other Weak Areas

• Waste Management: Bear markets
• Restaurants: Acting very poorly (most names)
• Oil: Still weak, though not as bad as before
• Cruise Lines: Royal Caribbean broke 50-day moving average

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🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - MEGA CAP LEADERSHIP

• Microsoft: Strong pivot above 50-day MA, heavy volume (512→518 in 1 minute on triple witching)
• Apple: Broke recent resistance, targeting 250-260 (closed 245, up from Feb high of 250)
• Oracle: Finding support 290-300 after gap-up/drop cycle, still strong theme leader
• Tesla: Broke 368 resistance, now 426, looks "pretty darn good" despite resistance ahead
• Meta: Approaching 796 August high, break above $800 could trigger next leg
• Google: Up 10% in 2.5 weeks (230→254) after DOJ concerns faded
• NVIDIA: Range-bound, hanging on 50-day MA

AI/Data Infrastructure (Continued strength)

• Semiconductor Equipment: "Gone vertical" - ASML, KLAC, LRCX
• Data Storage: Seagate, Western Digital - price increases due to demand
• Electronics Contract Manufacturing: Celestica

Financial Services

• Major Banks: Strong performance
  • JPMorgan: New yearly high
  • Goldman Sachs: Right at highs

Energy - Nuclear

• Uranium & Nuclear: "Straight up" on news
  • Catalyst: Uranium reserve announcement to cut Russian dependence
  • Caution: Some stocks have $14B market caps with zero sales

Individual Standouts

• Tesla: Up big on Elon Musk's $1B stock purchase
• Oracle: Driving the AI/data center rally

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🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

• S&P 500 at record highs (3.3x sales - highest in history)
• Fed rate cut expected Wednesday (100% certainty)
• 20/20 times Fed cut with S&P at highs = stocks higher 12 months later (+13.9% avg)
• But 11/22 times = stocks lower 1 month later

Watch List

• Consumer Discretionary: Mixed signals with travel weakness
• Technology Broad: Beyond AI/semi equipment
• Small Cap: Monitoring for rotation opportunities

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📊 Key Market Metrics (Current)

• S&P 500 P/E: 27.3 (highest since 2000)
• Top 10 Stocks: 40% of S&P 500 weight
• Top 7 Stocks: 64% of NASDAQ 100 weight
• QQQ: Hit another new high at close (Sept 19)
• Russell 2000: Weak today
• 10-Year Treasury: 4.034% (rates ticked up again)

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🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS (Sept 19)

Real-World Observations:

• Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
• Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
• Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
• Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
  • Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
  • Houses staying on market much longer
• Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

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🎯 Gary's Key Themes (Updated Sept 19)

1. Mega-Cap Concentration - Top 7 names = 64% of NASDAQ 100. "When things change, if things change, we'll be on you"

2. Oracle Effect Continues - Still finding support, driving AI/data infrastructure

3. Economic Divergence - Markets hitting highs while real economy shows stress signals

4. Travel/Consumer Warning Escalating - "We want you as far away from restaurant stocks as possible"

5. Housing Reality Check - "Fantasy land prices are very much coming down"

6. Fed Response Expected - Economic weakness = "easier money" and more rate cuts

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💡 TRADE NOTES

Oracle (ORCL): Support holding at 290-300 level after big gap up/down cycle. Gary looking to buy but hasn't yet. User had call position but exited early - considering re-entry Monday.

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Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaultbaum show analysis]