Gary Kaltbaum Market Tracker - Investor's Edge
🔴 SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 (Thu) - OIL BREAKS OUT, UP $7. YIELDS SPIKE TO MULTI-YEAR HIGHS. "SHEER AND UTTER DISAPPOINTMENT."
"OIL PRICES ARE IN CONTROL NOW."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
The Big Story: Oil (USO) broke out above the May highs today, up as much as $7, settling around up $5.70-6 late in the session. Gary: "This is bad news." Yields Spiking: 10-year yield up over 1 point today to 4.9% (yesterday 4.837%), broken out of a multi-year range. 5-year yield up to 4.738%. Avoid: Housing, most retail, hotels, cruise lines, airlines, casinos, restaurants (less strong now), transports, most commodities (ex gold/silver), most financials, most consumer staples, most semis/AI Semis/AI: Had a nice 3-day move, getting roughed up today. Of ~175 names Gary tracks (100 semi + 75 AI), 160 still below the 50-day moving average. Notable Insider Buys: Uber CEO bought $10 million of stock at $71 (now $72.50). Intel CEO bought $10 million at $95 (now $101, down $5 today). Gary's Technical Take: Markets are "deeply oversold, stretched, extended." Any decent drop in oil or yields could spark a good bounce.
🛢️ OIL - THE DOMINANT STORY
USO broke out of range today, higher than the May high. Gary: "It is broken out of range today, higher than the May high. This is bad news."
Price action through the day: Up as much as $7 at one point, moving back and forth, settling around up $5.70 to $6 late in the session.
Why it matters, per Gary: "Number one, what you're paying at the pump. Number two, the cost of everything." He points to the wide use of petroleum in manufactured goods. Diesel prices in California reportedly up $10.
Gary's causal chain: Administration miscalculations on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with what he calls daily misleading statements from the president about the state of the conflict. He cited a Houthi strike on US bases the same day the administration had claimed Iran had no military capability left.
Gary: "You're going to see prices at the pump going towards $5."
📊 MARKET ACTION (Two Readings During the Show)
Earlier in the session (~2:33pm Florida time, roughly 90 minutes before close):
- S&P: Down 48
- NASDAQ: Down 173
- Advance/decline: NYSE more than 3-to-1 negative, nearing 4-to-1. NASDAQ 3-to-1 negative.
- (Gary's Dow figure at this point was unclear in the transcript audio - stated as "down another four," which does not match the scale of the other index moves and is likely a transcription gap.)
Later in the session (~3:02pm Florida time):
- NASDAQ: Down 144
- S&P: Down 42
- Advance/decline: 907 new yearly lows across NYSE and NASDAQ combined
- (The exact up/down issue counts given were also garbled in transcription - noted here as unreliable figures rather than guessed at.)
Gary: "Just rough day. Rough going. Confidence waning."
📊 YIELDS - BROKEN OUT
- 10-year yield: Up over 1 point today to 4.9%. Yesterday: 4.837%. Gary: "Broken out of multi-year range."
- 5-year yield: Up to 4.738%.
Gary's framing: Higher yields plus higher oil is "one hell of a one-two punch" for the economy. Corporations built their models around lower input costs on both fronts - adjustments now have to be made, and profits get squeezed.
He also raised a specific critique of the Treasury Secretary's approach of buying up long bonds to try to influence the bond market directly. Gary's view: with trillions of dollars in the bond market, billions in purchases amounts to, in his words, "a fly on an elephant's arse," and all it has produced so far is bonds going down and yields going up.
📉 SECTOR RUNDOWN
Housing / Housing-related: Bearish. Mortgage rates moving higher. Gary believes inventory is at or near record levels nationally.
Retail: Bearish overall. Gary notes 3 to 5 names holding up relatively well; the rest weak.
Travel / Leisure: Cruise lines, airlines, hotels, casinos all "pretty darn bearish," tied directly to oil prices.
Restaurants: A few names had been holding up; "less strong now."
Commodities (outside gold and silver): Broadly getting hit hard today. Copper, aluminum, platinum all down.
Economically Sensitive / Industrial: United Rentals down another $47 today. W.W. Grainger mentioned as weak in the same group.
Financials: Regional banks have topped out. Other banks mixed - some holding up, many trading below the 50-day moving average.
Transports: Under pressure, directly tied to oil and gas prices.
Consumer Staples: Mostly bearish. Smucker's named as a relative strength holdout.
Semis / Artificial Intelligence: Had a nice 3-day run, getting hit today. Gary's scan: of roughly 175 combined semi and AI names, about 160 remain below the 50-day moving average - many well into bearish phases. A handful showing better relative action: SanDisk, Micron, a few others.
Medical / Healthcare / Pharma: Had been working for a while, now getting roughed up. Eli Lilly broke out of range, failed, and is now breaking down.
📌 NOTABLE INSIDER BUYS
- Uber: CEO bought $10 million of stock at $71. Currently trading around $72.50.
- Intel: CEO bought $10 million of stock at $95. Currently at $101, down $5 today.
📊 OTHER MARKET NOTES
An inflation number released today came in, per Gary, "not good." Another inflation reading is due tomorrow - he says he has no read on what it will show or how markets will react, but reiterates that oil is the dominant variable right now: "It's everywhere. It's in everything. It's the economy."
🗳️ MACRO / POLITICAL COMMENTARY (Gary's Stated Opinions)
This episode ran broader than markets, so capturing the substance here as Gary's own framing, not as fact:
On the Iran situation: Gary maintains this has been a "total and utter miscalculation" by the administration for months, combined with what he characterizes as daily misleading statements about the state of the conflict with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
On the Defense Secretary (name corrected from an audio mishearing of "Hegseth"): Gary questioned why the Defense Secretary has not been replaced, citing what he called contradictory statements about Iran's military capacity ahead of the reported Houthi strikes on US bases. He mentioned having met the Secretary once, years ago, in Jerusalem.
On the Treasury Secretary: Sharply critical of the Secretary's direct bond-buying approach and a quoted line, "I am the house now." Gary's response: "First, let me state for the record, you're not the house. The 350 million people are the house... the 160 million who go to work every day to do better for themselves and their families are the house."
On a proposed $5,000 payment tied to a political speech: Gary was skeptical this would materialize, drawing a comparison to prior unfulfilled payment promises he referenced from recent years. His view: "Don't spend it."
On Hunter Biden: Noted a meme coin launch that Gary says dropped 95 to 96% in value, alongside broader criticism of what he characterizes as financial conduct by both the Biden and Trump families tied to their periods in or near power. Gary was explicit that he considers this a bipartisan issue: "The corruption in DC on both sides of the aisle absolutely sucks."
On trade policy with Canada: Called the approach "illogical stupidity" and said it reflects, in his view, a lack of understanding of trade.
Gary's stated framework throughout: "We are policy people. We see no personality... Honesty. Respect. Just do the right thing." He described applying the same standard regardless of party, citing his past criticism of both the Trump and Biden administrations' border policies as examples.
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
Oil is the single variable driving almost everything today. Housing, retail, travel, transports, financials, even semis/AI all took a hit connected back to the oil and yield spike. Two yield breakouts in one day (5-year and 10-year both to multi-year highs) is a serious signal worth tracking into tomorrow's inflation number. Markets are oversold and stretched short-term. Gary's technical view: any meaningful pullback in oil or yields could spark a real bounce. Semis/AI still mostly broken technically despite the recent 3-day bounce - 160 of 175 names below the 50-day. Insider buying in Uber and Intel from the CEOs is worth noting given the broader risk-off tone of the day.
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