Gary Kaltbaum Market Tracker - Investor's Edge
Multi-analyst market commentary blog | Reverse chronological order Analysts: Gary Kaltbaum (tactical timing) | Phil Grande / Phil's Gang (sector momentum) | Dr. Boyce Watkins (long-term wealth)
🟢 MAY 26, 2026 (Tue) - SEMIS UP 5.5%. MICRON UP 19%. "TURNED INTO 1999 FOR SOME OF THESE NAMES."
"I AM SO P.O'D AT MYSELF."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
Still Working: Semis/AI/optical/storage/memory leading. Steel, select banks, some airlines, some software improving. Froth Warning Renewed: No-sales names perking up again - nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones. Be careful. Avoid: Crypto, China, medicals, drugs, consumer staples, housing-related, most Dow names, MasterCard, Walmart, Costco Russell 2000: Up 17% on the year. Gary sold two weeks ago. Four straight days up on falling yields. Critical Level: SOX 21-day MA was 10,951 last Tuesday. Now 12,876. Up 17-18% in four days. Gary's Warning: "It's turned into 1999 for some semis and AI names." Not calling a top. Just noting the trajectory.
📊 TODAY'S MARKET ACTION
- Dow: Down 120 (was down over 200, oil prices pulling back helped)
- SOX (Semiconductors): Up 5.5%
Gary: "That's nothing. That's meaningless" - referring to the Dow drop in context of semi strength.
🚀 MICRON (MU) - THE HEADLINE
Analyst raised price target from $535 to $1,625. Stock closed Friday at $750.
Today: Closed at $895. Up $144. Up 19%.
Gary: "No, not kidding."
🟢 TODAY'S BIG MOVERS - SEMI/AI LAND
- AMD: Up 36
- Caterpillar: Up 28 (flagged - unusual in semi context, may be transcription error)
- Jabil (JBL): Up 15 (transcript: "Jable")
- Seagate (STX): Up 33
- Western Digital (WDC): Up 40
- ARM Holdings: Up 15
- Teradyne (TER): Up 30 (was weak on earnings, now right back)
- Vicor Electronics: Up 24% on raised numbers. Was on Gary's watch list - gapped up.
Gary: "I can go on but I'll just be repeating myself. The semiconductors are just strong as an ox."
😤 GARY'S MEA CULPA
Gary traded out of semis a while ago. "I am so p.o'd at myself. I have no problem shaming myself to you on something like this."
"I gave up on a major move thinking I'm a genius. Oh, look how much money I made in a short period of time. Oh, it's too extended, get out. Yeah, right."
"It's turned into 1999 for some semiconductors and AI names." Gary is NOT saying year 2000 is next. "I'm just letting you know some of these moves in 1999... you never know when something like that's gonna happen. It doesn't happen often. This one is pretty much for the record books."
He does have a big piece of the NASDAQ 100. "I'll take that."
📊 SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX - KEY LEVELS
Last Tuesday: SOX tagged the 21-day moving average at 10,951
Today: 12,876
That is 17-18% in four days from that reversal. Gary: "An outlier event that we have not seen in a very long time."
🟢 WHAT ELSE IS WORKING
Steel: Nucor, Steel Dynamics into new high ground today.
Banks: Bank of New York, Morgan Stanley, some Canadian banks - "right there." Also State Street Bank, Northern Trust, some investment managers.
Airlines: Better today on oil prices pulling back. Delta at a new yearly high. Gary: "Would I ever buy an airline? No. But just letting you know."
Cruise lines: Bouncing a little.
Truckers: Mentioned as working.
Travel: A little better.
Casinos: Trying to shape up.
Software: "Definitely better and some real strong names in software, but still plenty of names terrible."
Solar: "A couple of them busting out to new highs." AI narrative being attached. Gary: "I won't argue the point, I'll just let you know."
Space stocks: Some strong. "The issue there is you got some real frothy speculation in there."
Gold and silver: Bounced today.
MSGS (Madison Square Garden Sports): Broke out to new high.
Russell 2000: Up 17% this year at ~2,450. Was down 4% end of March. Only up 9% five days ago. "Gone straight up for four days" on falling yields. Gary sold two weeks ago. "I never have any luck with the small caps."
S&P: Up ~9% on the year. Was down ~9% at the lows. "Not more than three down days since the low."
🔴 STILL NOT WORKING
Crypto: No. Ethereum "really topped out badly." Bitcoin "little less of a top-out" but Gary keeping it under "eh."
China: No.
Medicals: No.
Drug stocks: No.
Consumer staples: No. Tobacco stocks got hit today after being strong.
Housing-related: No.
Restaurants: No. (Has a couple.)
Hotels: No.
Autos/auto dealers: No. (Ford riffled up last week on some AI mention.)
Payroll companies: A little better but got hit hard today.
Dow names that are down: Amgen, American Express, Boeing, Salesforce, Chevron (breaking down), Home Depot (near new yearly lows), IBM, JPMorgan, McDonald's, Microsoft (No), 3M, Nike (destroyed), Procter & Gamble (bear market), Sherwin-Williams (big bear market)
MasterCard: Weak.
Walmart: Bad reaction to earnings, gapped down three days ago and still falling.
Costco: Broke out then "completely failed... crumbled since that day."
⚠️ FROTH WARNING - RENEWED
No-sales names perking up again. Same themes: nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones.
Gary's examples:
- One rare earth: High of $16 in October. Now $5 and change.
- Another: Was at $32. Now $11.
"When the music stops and we mean by music stops - when they go out of favor, out of fashion, no longer cool - they usually go back to where they came from."
Government taking positions in no-sales companies adding fuel. Insider trading concerns raised.
Gary differentiating: "Intel does $50-60 billion in sales and makes money. There's a big difference." AI names with real sales are not the same as zero-revenue froth.
Gary: "We are not saying they're not going higher. We are not saying they're not going to soar. We're just telling you to be careful."
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
The semi/AI move is historic. 17-18% in four days on the SOX from the 21-day MA. Gary comparing trajectory to 1999. Not a top call - just a "be aware" warning. Gary is long NASDAQ 100 and taking what the market gives. But not in individual semis - and he's openly frustrated about that. No-sales froth returning: Same themes as September. Government involvement adding to the noise. Treat them the way Gary does - if nothing changes operationally, when the music stops they crash. Falling yields driving small caps: Four straight days of yield declines pushing Russell 2000 up 17% on the year. Watch yields. Walmart and Costco crumbling: Two major retail bellwethers signaling consumer stress despite the index rally. "It can only crash if it breaks the 21-day and then the 50-day." That's Gary's line in the sand for the working group.
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