Gary Kaltbaum Market Tracker - Investor's Edge
🟡 APRIL 29, 2026 (Wed) - OIL SOARING. SEMIS BOUNCE. BIG TECH EARNINGS MIXED.
"IF OIL PRICES KEEP GOING UP FROM HERE... IT LOOKS LIKE SPACEX."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
The Big Warning: Oil up $8+ today. USO up $11. Gary: "If I slept the day away and you told me USO was up $11, I would have said look out." Oil chart "looks like SpaceX." Mega Cap Earnings (Aftermarket): Google up ~4%, Qualcomm strong. Microsoft and Meta getting hit hard. Amazon mixed. Watch Tomorrow: Apple reports after close. Gary: "I got to think that'll be a good one." Still Avoid: Airlines, transports, cruise lines, retail, housing - all getting hit by oil Positive Surprise: Intel acting like one of the strongest stocks in the semiconductor complex Advance/Decline tells the real story: NASDAQ up on the day - but 14 up, 32 down. NYSE 12 up, 31 down. More new yearly lows than highs on NASDAQ. Banks: Starting to act "a little bit iffy." Gary worried.
📊 TODAY'S MARKET ACTION
- Dow: Down 280
- NASDAQ: Up 9
- NASDAQ 100: Up 158
- SOX (Semiconductors): Up 235 - bouncing from "real yuck" yesterday
Gary: "I would have thought we'd have a 500 or 600 point down day in the Dow, maybe even more" given oil prices. The semis bounce off some name-specific news saved the day.
Advance/Decline - the real picture:
- NASDAQ: 14 up, 32 down (with NASDAQ up on the day)
- NYSE: 12 up, 31 down
- More new yearly lows than new yearly highs on NASDAQ
Gary: "Call me a little bit on the amaze side. Amazed."
🛢️ OIL - THE NUMBER ONE CONCERN
Light Crude (June delivery): Up $8+ today USO: Up $11 today. New high hit at the pump today.
Gary: "If nothing changes, it's going to be higher in a week or two."
Impact already being felt: airlines, transports, cruise lines hit. Retail very weak - "consumer, remember market moves on perception as well as reality."
Gary: "I don't like where these oil prices are." Watching closely. A chart of oil "looks like SpaceX."
Banks starting to act iffy - Gary's reasoning: "You don't want rates to keep going up. Rates would be going up to accommodate for the higher oil."
📊 BIG TECH EARNINGS - AFTERMARKET (SETTLING)
Good:
- Google (GOOG): Up ~$12 to $362 aftermarket (~4%) - Gary: "I would have been owning already a few days ago but I don't buy right before earnings."
- Qualcomm: Strong. Gary: "Really good. And Qualcomm's like in our top 20 as far as bigness. It's been a very, very weak stock."
- Apple (AAPL): Up $7 aftermarket. Reports tomorrow after close. Gary: "I got to think that'll be a good one."
Bad:
- Meta (META): Closed $669, now $628-629 aftermarket. Gary: "Getting squashed."
- Microsoft (MSFT): Closed ~$424, moving around $414-434 aftermarket. Gary: "Not having a good one."
- Amazon (AMZN): Down ~$4.50-$9 aftermarket - fluctuating.
- KLAC (KLA Corp): Closed $1,816, down to $1,680 aftermarket. Gary: "Ew... those are some icky numbers."
Gary's summary: "Microsoft Meta bad, Amazon down a little, Google good, Qualcomm really good. Kind of a tweener."
🟢 TODAY'S NOTABLE MOVERS (SESSION)
- Bloom Energy (BE): Up $61 to $287 on earnings - new high ground
- Silicon Motion (SIMO): Up $68 to $217 - new high ground
- Seagate (STX): Opened up $120, finished up $64 (sold into) - "still strong"
- NXP Semiconductor (NXPI): Up $57 to $288
- General Dynamics: Up $25 to $338
- Generac: Up $35 to $252
- Brinker International (EAT - Chili's): Up $19
- Starbucks (SBUX): Up 8.5%. Earnings up 22%, revenues up 9% - "both good acceleration." Broke out of a one-year range. Gary: "I was wrong" on his earlier skepticism. "I'm actually considering it."
- Intel (INTC): Gary: "Acting like one of the strongest stocks in the semiconductor complex now." Gapped powerfully a few days ago, rammed through highs today while market weakened. Gary: "I was considering buying Intel today. I haven't owned that stock since 99."
Weak today:
- Home Depot: New yearly low
- Lowe's: Right there with it
- Housing stocks hit hard
- Airlines, cruise lines, transports
📈 SEMIS - BOUNCING BUT WATCH OIL
Semis bounced strongly today (SOX up 235) after getting hit yesterday. Gary notes yesterday's negative news on AI/OpenAI capacity "the market didn't care today."
Intel the standout - "beautiful, powerful gap" a few days ago, ramming through highs today.
Seagate: Opened up $120, faded to up $64 - selling into strength noted.
Gary: "Every time they look to get in trouble, the nasty gets staved off." But oil prices remain the wildcard overhang.
🏦 BANKS - WATCHING CLOSELY
Starting to act "a little bit iffy." Gary's concern: rising oil forces rates higher, and higher rates are bad for banks. "I've remembered in the past what oil prices can do."
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
Oil is the story. Everything else is noise until oil resolves. Chart "looks like SpaceX." Gary explicitly said he'd have expected a 500-600 point down Dow day from these oil levels alone. Big tech earnings mixed: Google and Qualcomm the winners. Meta and Microsoft the losers. Apple tomorrow after close - Gary optimistic. Advance/decline is lying: NASDAQ up 9 on the day but internals 14 up, 32 down. More new lows than highs. The index number is hiding real weakness. Intel: Watch this one. Gary hasn't owned it since 1999 and is considering it now - that's notable. Starbucks: Gary admits he was wrong. Broke out of one-year range. He's considering it. Housing: Home Depot at new yearly low. Stay away. Oil resolution: "Really nothing going on out of Iran. It's like a standstill." Ceasefire in place but Gary worried about what happens if it continues.
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