🔴 MARCH 24, 2026 (Tue) - SOFTWARE BLOWN UP AGAIN
"THEY BLEW THEM UP AGAIN TODAY. THEY BLEW THEM UP AGAIN."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
Avoid: All software - recovery attempt was a head fake; never reached the declining 50-day MA
Avoid: Google (GOOG/GOOGL) - starting to break down again
Avoid: Crypto - building bear flag to break down out of
Working: Semis/AI/Optical/Storage group - held strong in down 184 NASDAQ; up 9% aftermarket
Overnight: Iran 1-month ceasefire news (Israeli Channel 12) - Dow +360 aftermarket, QQQ 584→591, oil down $5
If ceasefire holds: Oil and defense stocks likely come in; semis get another boost
📉 SOFTWARE - BEAR MARKET "CLASSICALLY" PLAYING OUT
Gary called "Top On Software" November 4, 2025. About three weeks ago said software was "trying to put in some sort of a low." They rallied - but "anemically." Started rolling over the Friday before today. Then blown up to new lows today.
"They never made it even to the all-important declining 50-day moving average, which is the roadmap for a bear market."
Big Name Damage (high → current):
- Oracle (ORCL): 346 → 147 (Gary had ~7% position, sold at 303, "made 20 cents" - saved the rest)
- Microsoft (MSFT): New relative low today
- SAP: 313 → 171 - new yearly low today
- Salesforce (CRM): Near new yearly lows (big insider buy - "getting his butt beat")
- Intuit (INTU): 813 → 432
- Workday (WDAY): 276 → 130 (insiders selling down here)
- Palo Alto (PANW): 223 → 157
- Unnamed famous name: 567 → 393
Gary on the AI disruption narrative: "The story goes, well, artificial intelligence is supposedly going to take over. I don't know if that's going to be happening or not. We hear it in some cases."
The "left screen" - where Gary tracks broken tech names - now has hundreds of names on it. Today: "Deep red. No red up."
Gary: "That left screen looks like the south end of a northbound jackass."
🟢 WHAT'S WORKING
Semis, AI, optical, storage, data, memory - held strong in the face of NASDAQ down 184.
Gary's named list: CIEN | COHR | GEV | GLW | LITE | STX | SNDK | TER | TSEM | VRT | WDC
"All had a very good day. All helping out." Secondary/sub-names in the group also strong (Gary declined to list). Up 9% in the aftermarket.
📊 MARKET ACTION
- Dow: Down 84
- NASDAQ: Down 184
- NASDAQ 100: Down 186
Gary notes the broad market was "a little better throughout the day" but says it doesn't matter given the aftermarket news.
🌙 AFTERMARKET - IRAN CEASEFIRE
Gary watching the aftermarket move in real time during the broadcast. Dow spiked to +500, dropped to ~240, settled back to ~360. Still searching for the news that drove it.
The news: Israeli Channel 12 - "One month ceasefire to be announced under mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner."
- Dow aftermarket: Settled ~+360
- QQQ: 584 → 591 (~1.2%)
- USO (oil): Down ~$5
Gary: "They needed to do this. They needed to save face. Complete miscalculations." "Complete miscalculations by whoever made the decisions on our side. On oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz, the capabilities of Iran." "We contacted them. Not the other way around. And again, no joy."
Gary's guess: "The worst may be over." But cautious - "Unless that's a BS story. It has not come out of the President's mouth just yet."
If it holds: "Oil stocks, defense stocks probably come in."
⚠️ OTHER WARNINGS
Google (GOOG/GOOGL): "Looks like it may be starting to break down again pretty quick. Go take a look at the chart."
Crypto: "Nothing going on." Possibly building a bear flag to break down out of. TV analyst said Bitcoin's acting well - Gary: "He lied. That's what is known in my industry as talking the book."
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
Software: The recovery was a trap. Rallied anemically, rolled, blew to new lows without ever touching the declining 50-day. Road map of bear markets playing out classically.
The only game: Semis/AI/optical. Proved it today holding strong while everything else was deep red.
Tonight: Confirm ceasefire story. If it holds, expect oil/defense to give back gains; semis get more juice.
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