Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis
Last Updated: October 13, 2025
📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2025 - "FORGIVEN"
Market Action
- Dow: +587 points (recovered from Friday's -860 loss) - opened near 45,984
- NASDAQ: +490 points (recovered from Friday's -820 loss) - gapped to 22,600
- Semiconductors (SOX): +315 points (recovered from Friday's -450 loss)
What Happened
Trump backed down over the weekend - Changed tone from threatening 100% China tariffs to "China's our friend, we'll work it out." Set November 1st deadline to negotiate.
Gary's Reaction: "Very surprised how the strength got so strong, so quickly. That tells me how temperamental and fragile markets are."
🟢 LEADING SECTORS
Semiconductors & AI Equipment - "Went Ape-Blank to the Upside"
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- KLA Corp (KLAC)
- Lam Research (LRCX)
- ASML
- Micron (MU)
- Taiwan Semi (TSM)
Status: Some stocks recovered 100% of Friday's losses
Data Centers & Related
- Data storage companies
- Data center construction
- Energy for data centers
- Vertiv (VRT)
AI & Tech Leaders
- NVIDIA
- Dell Computer
- Microsoft (attempting breakout)
- Tesla
Big Banks
- BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo
- "Got back a bunch" on Monday
- Earnings start Tuesday
Gold & Silver
- Continuing parabolic move
- GLD +$9 on Monday
- Gary sold Thursday (regrets it)
🔴 LAGGING SECTORS
Transportation - "Goodnight Irene"
- Truckers: "Really bad"
- Rails: Weak
- Airlines: Topped, still weak even after Monday bounce
- UPS particularly bad
Regional Banks - "Holy Crap, They're Done"
- Still don't look good even after Monday's bounce
- Gary says avoid
Travel & Leisure
- Cruise Lines: Royal Caribbean, Carnival - still weak
- Hotels: Weak
- Airlines: Still bearish despite bounce
Restaurants
- "Bearish areas will remain bearish"
- Chipotle, Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse, Starbucks
- All crashed 50-60% from highs
Retail - "Many Stripes" Weak
- 90%+ in downtrends
- Target at yearly lows
- Lululemon crashed
Housing & Housing-Related
- Home Depot, Lowe's
- Homebuilders
- Restoration Hardware
- Sherwin-Williams
Auto Sector
- GM/Ford (failed breakouts)
- Auto dealers
- Auto parts retailers
Consumer Staples - "Bludgeoned"
- Food, beverage, tobacco
- Household products (P&G, Pepsi, Coke, Dr Pepper)
- Alcohol companies
Financials - Credit Concerns
- Private equity (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone): "Total breakdowns"
- Junk bonds (HYG, JNK): Broke 50-day MA
- Investment managers
🚀 LEADING STOCKS (Monday Winners)
Semiconductors
- NVIDIA - leading the charge
- Applied Materials (AMAT)
- KLA Corp (KLAC)
- Lam Research (LRCX)
- ASML
- Micron (MU)
- Taiwan Semi (TSM)
Tech & AI
- Dell Computer - broke out
- Vertiv - data centers
- Microsoft - attempting range breakout
- Tesla - bounced back
Big Banks
- Goldman Sachs
- JP Morgan
- BlackRock
- Wells Fargo
📉 LAGGING STOCKS (Still Weak After Bounce)
Failed Leaders
- Meta/Facebook - broke 50-day MA, still below
- Netflix - living below 50-day MA
- Reddit - down 27% recently
- HubSpot - down 27%
Travel Stocks
- Royal Caribbean
- Carnival
- Las Vegas Sands
Restaurant Stocks
- Chipotle
- Shake Shack
- Texas Roadhouse
- Starbucks
Retail Stocks
- Target - at yearly lows
- Lululemon
Autos
- GM
- Ford
- Ferrari
Private Equity
- Apollo Group
- KKR
- Blackstone
🚨 GARY'S BIGGEST WARNING: Speculation at Extremes
48 No-Sales Stocks Hit New Yearly Highs
Gary's Monday scan found 48 companies with NO SALES hitting new yearly highs with market caps from $2B to $25B:
Examples:
- Quantum Computers: $18→$55 in 5 weeks, NO SALES, $16B market cap
- Nuclear Stock: Public since 2001, NO SALES FOR 25 YEARS, up 22% Monday
- Rare Earth Materials: $19→$38 in 6 days, NO SALES, $3.1B market cap (NEW THEME)
- Drones, Robo-Taxis, Bitcoin Mining: All being "ramped"
Gary's Warning:
"Don't be the last one in. I can't tell you they won't go higher. I can't tell you they won't double, triple, quadruple from here. I can say this: Don't be the last one in. When the music stops, there will be no chairs."
💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING
What He Owns
- QQQs and S&P (since April 24 confirmation day)
- AI/semiconductor/data center stocks
Actions This Week
- Sold some positions Friday during tariff crash (names not disclosed)
- May buy back since they bounced Monday
- Out of gold - sold Thursday, regrets it (gold +$9 Monday)
His Take
"If they didn't make nice, nice over the weekend, I think we would have been down another 500 to 1,000 today."
"Will it continue higher from here? How's this for a certain answer? Don't know."
"But we certainly know where the strength is. It's not hard to hide it."
📅 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS - BIG BANK WEEK
Tuesday AM
BlackRock, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson, Domino's Pizza
Wednesday AM
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Bank, Synchrony Financial
Thursday AM
Bank of New York, Schwab, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Travelers, US Bank
Friday
American Express, Fifth Third Bank, Huntington Bank, Regions Financial, State Street, Truist, Webster Financial
Gary: "They're all just great bookies. I doubt there's going to be any disasters."
🎯 KEY TAKEAWAY
"Notwithstanding the most news-driven environment we've ever had out of DC, Friday's kind of forgotten."
The pattern repeated from April: Tariff threat → Market crash → Weekend walk-back → Monday gap up.
Gary's watching for the next tariff threat and the extreme speculation in no-sales stocks as warning signs.
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