Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 1, 2025

🔥 LATEST UPDATE - OCTOBER 1, 2025

"GOOD GETTING GOODER, BAD GETTING BADDER"

🚨 CRITICAL MARKET ENDGAME WARNING

Gary's most explicit warning yet: "We don't want to be in a position where there's only a few games in town in the market that go vertical because that's an endgame in the market when it narrows down"

Market Action Today (Oct 1)

Dow: Up 43 (weighed down by financials)
NASDAQ: Up 95
NASDAQ 100: Up 120 (semiconductor equipment driving)
SOX (Semiconductor Index): Up 2%, 130 points

The Bifurcation Story

Gary's "I-95 analogy" - one car going north (vertical), one going south (imploding), separating by "gargantuan margin"

GOING VERTICAL (The Good Getting Gooder):

Semiconductor Equipment: "I don't think I've ever seen semiconductor equipment stocks do what they're doing"
- Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML: 3-5% daily moves
- Micron (MU), Taiwan Semi (TSM): Vertical moves
- CAVEAT: "All that spending talk better come through"
Tesla: $360-370 → $460 in 3 weeks ($100 move)
Dell Computer: Broke out today
Vertiv (data center): Broke out today
Microsoft: Trying to break recent range
NVIDIA: Edging above range

IMPLODING (The Bad Getting Badder): Gary: "They're just crumbling," "Imploding," "The bad is getting bludgeoned"

Duolingo -18%, MSCI -15%, Monday.com -9%, MercadoLibre -16%
Wix -24%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%
ServiceNow -8%, DocuSign -3%, S&P Global -5%
T-Mobile -6%, Team -10%, Zebra Tech -6%, Paycom -9%

SOCIAL MEDIA BREAKDOWN:

Meta/Facebook: Broke 50-day four days ago, down $17 to $717, further below 50-day (near $760)
Netflix: Down $28 on Elon Musk cancellation wave, "living below 50-day"

FINANCIALS "GETTING SQUIRRELY":

BlackRock -$25, Goldman Sachs -$10, JP Morgan -$4+
Morgan Stanley -$2, Wells Fargo -$3, American Express -$3
Blackstone -$3, Regional banks "rolling over"

Healthcare/Pharma Mystery Surge

Gary is "perplexed" - TrumpRx announcement caused 10-20% gains:

Eli Lilly: $725 → $825
Amgen: $274 → $298
AbbVie: $222 → $244 (10%)
Regeneron: $555 → $599 (was "murdered")
Merck: $78 → $90 (was "poster child of bear markets")
Thermo Electron: $460 → $530 in two days

Gary's Logic Problem: "If I sell a product and I have to sell it at a lower price, and I'm not going to be selling more of it, I don't know why my stock would go up"

His Theory: Mean reversion - healthcare was 9% (median 17%), tech was 34%
TrumpRx Details: Pfizer reducing Medicaid prices, $70B US R&D investment for 3-year tariff reprieve

Job Market "Withering" - Critical Economic Warning

Gary: "Job market is not in good shape" despite Trump saying "hottest economy we've ever had"

"We keep getting these job numbers. They're worsening. They're not getting better"
Starbucks shutting "ton of places" = job losses
Consumer is 70% of economy

Gary's 2-Week Warning Now Playing Out:

Airlines, cruise lines, hotels all "going south" since warning
Restaurants "crashed 50-60%" - "bunch of restaurant stocks have crashed"
Royal Caribbean (strongest): 366 → 316 "before you say boom"
Carnival: 32.5 → 28.30, Shake Shack: 144 → 91.60
Texas Roadhouse: 200 → 162, Chipotle: 58 → 39 since July
Starbucks: 117 → 84

Economic Logic (1+1=2): People losing jobs or worried will:

Skip Friday dinner out, eat in instead
Cut vacation from 10 to 6 days
Switch first class to coach
Pull back on discretionary spending

Three Weeks Until Earnings

Gary: "That'll be fun"

Critical Technical Levels

10-Year Yield: Still watching 4.2% - staying below is good
Meta 50-Day: Near $760, stock at $717
Netflix 50-Day: Stock "living below" it

🎯 GARY'S CURRENT THEMES (Oct 1)

Market Endgame Signal - Narrowing to "only a few games in town that go vertical"
Extreme Bifurcation - Winners vertical, losers imploding, "I've never seen semiconductor equipment do this"
Job Market Crisis - "Withering," validates travel/restaurant crash warnings
Financials Rolling Over - "Getting squirrely" - BlackRock, Goldman, JPM all down
Semiconductor Caveat - "All that spending talk better come through"
Healthcare Mean Reversion? - Surged 10-20% despite lower price environment
Travel/Restaurant Validation - 2-week warnings playing out perfectly

📊 CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE

Record Concentration (Still Extreme)

NASDAQ 100: 9 stocks = 70.34%
S&P 500: 8 stocks = 37%
Gary's Endgame: When it narrows to few names going vertical = endgame

Sector Weighting (Bubble Levels from Sept 29)

Technology/Communications: 34% (at 1999-2000 peak levels)
Healthcare: Was 9%, now surging (median is 17%)

Interest Rates & Commodities

10-Year Yield: Below 4.2% watch level (Gary's line in sand)
Oil: Down $2.50 - good news
Gold: Continuing parabolic trend

🟢 CURRENT LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductor Equipment - VERTICAL 🚀

AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, MU, TSM - "just about vertical with nary a stop"

Healthcare/Pharma - SURGING 📈

All major names up 10-20% on TrumpRx news (Gary perplexed why)

Select AI/Tech - BREAKOUTS

Tesla, Dell, Vertiv, Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging higher

Data Storage & Disk Drives

Strong alongside semiconductor equipment

Gold & Miners

Continuing parabolic bull move

🔴 CURRENT SECTORS TO AVOID

Tech Stocks - IMPLOSION ZONE

Software, internet, payment companies "crumbling," "imploding"

See list above (Duolingo -18%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%, etc.)

Social Media - BREAKING DOWN

Meta broke 50-day, Netflix down $28 on Musk cancellation wave

Financials - "SQUIRRELY"

BlackRock -$25, Goldman -$10, JPM -$4, regionals rolling over

Travel/Restaurants - CRASH CONFIRMED

Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse, Chipotle, Starbucks all crashing

Retail

Target still at yearly lows ($88.83 from $269 high), Lululemon crash

Consumer Staples

Food/beverage, alcohol, tobacco all in bear markets

Industrial/Transportation

Rails, truckers, UPS "big bear market", FedEx weak

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING CONTEXT (From Sept 29)

Record Market Concentration

9 stocks = 70.34% of NASDAQ 100
8 stocks = 37% of S&P 500

Climactic Top Warning

Gary: "We have a sneaking suspicion this technology move may end in some sort of climactic move like 99 and early 2000"

Timeline: "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks"
Trigger: "If we start seeing a vertical move in NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, that'll be it"

No-Sales Biotech Carnage (Sept 29)

Three companies crashed 50-90% in ONE DAY:

Moonlake Immunotherapy: $62 → $6.25 (down 90%)
IO Biotech: $1.48 → $0.36 (down 77%)
Applied Therapeutics: $1.24 → $0.61 (down 51%)

IPO Destruction Pattern

Hot IPOs crashing 50%+ within days/weeks:

Klarna, Figma, Gemini Space Station, Chime Financial, StubHub

Sector Weighting at Bubble Extremes

Tech/Communications: 34% (back to 1999-2000 levels) Healthcare: 9% (median 17%) - before recent surge

💡 CURRENT TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Gary's Positioning

Still owns "some of these things" (tech stocks)
Watching daily for market narrowing/endgame signals
Ready to sell if vertical move materializes
Bought market on confirmation day after Trump tariff crash

Critical Levels to Watch

10-Year Yield: 4.2% is the line
Meta: Needs to reclaim 50-day near $760 (currently $717)
Netflix: Below 50-day, needs to reclaim

Breakouts Today (Oct 1)

Dell Computer, Vertiv
Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging

Major Breakdowns Today (Oct 1)

Meta further below 50-day
Netflix -$28
Financials across the board

Semiconductor Equipment

Vertical move but Gary warns: "That better come through"

📅 HISTORICAL CONTEXT (Sept 15-29)

Sept 29: Climactic Top Warning Issued

Gary explicitly warned about 1999-2000 style climactic move
Three no-sales biotechs crashed 50-90% in one day
IPO carnage accelerating

Sept 24-25: Distribution Appearing

Oracle broke below $300 support (was $345 ATH Sept 10)
Leading AI names (ALAB, CRDO) showing weakness
Apple emerged as new leader
Crypto broke below 50-day moving averages

Sept 22: NVIDIA/OpenAI Breakout

NVIDIA $100B OpenAI partnership announced
Data center stocks (CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS) all moved
Gold continuing bull run (318 → 345)

Sept 19: Economic Stress Signals

Orlando/LaGuardia airports "quiet"
Vegas traffic down 12%
Central Florida housing: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days

Sept 15: Initial Warnings

Restaurant/travel stocks bearish
Oracle finding support 290-300 after gap up/drop cycle
Fed rate cut expected (20/20 times led to higher 12 months later)

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

Wednesday, October 1, 2025