🔴 MARCH 26, 2026 (Thu) - "THE SEA WAS ANGRY THAT DAY" - PRETTY LADIES GET HIT
"I REALLY DON'T HAVE ANYTHING REDEEMING TO TELL YOU."
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
The Big Story: Semis/AI group - the last port in a storm - got hit hard today. Multiple names broke the 50-day MA. Complete Avoids: Software, retail (most), housing, financials (private equity/credit), travel, airlines, cruise lines, pharma, managed care, autos, payroll stocks, China, insurance, restaurants, staples, alcohol, crypto Critical Break: Meta broke "long term everything" today. Google broke top support - "double toast." Indices: All major indices below 200-day MA. Small and mid caps still above but had rough day. Oil: USO up $3.87 to 117.26. 10-year yield up to 4.416. Both going wrong direction. Gary's Honest Take: "I have no clue what happens tomorrow."
📉 THE PRETTY LADIES GET HIT - SEMIS/AI GROUP WORSENING
Gary's term for the last working group - "the pretty ladies on Wall Street" - got clipped hard today.
Semiconductor equipment - broke 50-day:
- ASML: Down $64 to $1,329.50 - below 50-day
- Applied Materials (AMAT): Down $31, down 8% - just broke 50-day
- KLAC: Down 6% - broke 50-day
- Lam Research (LRCX): Down 9% - "much weaker than the rest"
The AI/storage/optical group - big drops:
- SanDisk (SNDK): Down $74
- Lumentum (LITE): Down $81 - "the strongest name"
- Seagate (STX): Down $34 - broke 50-day "by just a little bit"
- Ciena (CIEN): Down $50
- FN: Down $62
Gary: "We've seen days up that much. So they're really trading sharply, both up and down right now."
Semis broadly: Living below the 50-day for three weeks now. Taiwan Semi now below 50-day. Micron below 50-day.
Construction/data center names: "Got clipped today. A few of them have been breaking down recently. The strongest ones came in today."
AI energy names: "Less strong today."
Gary: "It was bad news that the areas that were holding up very well came in today pretty darn good."
On DRAM prices potentially topping: "That defines demand. If demand comes off, could be trouble. Maybe that's a clue."
📉 META AND GOOGLE - MAJOR BREAKS
Meta (META): Down $47 today. Lost a lawsuit. Gary: "Completely breaking long term everything."
Google (GOOG): Down $10 today. Gary had flagged support breaking yesterday. Today: "It was already toast. Give it double toast."
Gary: "Those are two mega cap names, ladies and gentlemen."
Tesla: Below the 200-day - worsening.
📊 TODAY'S MARKET ACTION
- Dow: Down 469
- S&P: Down 114
- NASDAQ: Down 521
- NASDAQ 100: Down 575
- SOX (Semiconductors): Down 381 points, down 4.79%
All major indices below the 200-day moving average. Small and mid caps still above but had a rough day.
Gary: "I really don't have anything redeeming to tell you."
One note: Software actually had relative strength today - bounced slightly. Gary's take: "If you're in a big downtrend and you outperform for a day, whoopie-doo, you're bouncing. Terrific. We'll throw a party."
🛢️ OIL AND YIELDS - WRONG DIRECTION
- USO: Up $3.87 to 117.26 (down $1 in aftermarket - "yippee")
- 10-year yield: Up 0.88 to 4.416
- Gary: "Yields will go up with oil prices."
⚠️ IPO WARNING - VCX
New IPO VCX - a fund owning private AI/tech companies. Traded at $565 yesterday. Closed at $262 today - down over 50% in one day.
Gary: "It is absolutely imperative you realize you got to take what Wall Street's showing you and telling you." Ridiculous valuations coming to market. Same story he's been warning about.
📊 MACRO TIDBITS
- Home sellers now outnumber buyers by 630,000 - largest gap ever recorded. Buyer's market.
- US beer shipments expected to reach a 37-year low
- Mortgage rates: Back above 7% (were under 6% recently)
- Economy before the war: GDP 0.7%, ~90K jobs lost, inflation rising, yields higher. "It was a lot of iffiness before the war."
💭 GARY'S BIG PICTURE THOUGHT
Gary wondering if the president eventually just "takes the win" and exits the Middle East conflict - politics, poll numbers, and a weakening economy all pointing that direction. Problem: Strait of Hormuz. If they exit and Iran perceives weakness, the strait becomes an issue again.
Sentiment: More bears now showing up in Gary's indicators. "That's okay. We'll take that. More people are bearish. Maybe you get closer to a worst case scenario." - A contrarian positive, but not a signal to act on yet.
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS
The last working group is now under pressure. Semis/AI/optical group broke down hard today with multiple 50-day breaks. Three weeks below 50-day on the broader semi group. Meta and Google: Major long-term breaks. Two mega cap names now technically broken. Oil and yields moving wrong way: USO at 117, 10-year at 4.416. Both headwinds. No earnings to change the playing field tomorrow - Friday will be news-driven. One slim positive: Bearish sentiment picking up - historically that's a contrarian signal. But Gary not calling a bottom. Gary's honest assessment: "I have no clue what happens tomorrow."
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