"HOLY CRAP MOMENT" - CLAUDE AI Crashes IBM/Software, Banks Break Down, "What's Next? We Don't Have A Freaking Clue"
📊 Market Carnage
- Dow: -822
- NASDAQ: -258
- NASDAQ 100: -303
- Transports: -564
- Advance/Declines: Terrible
- Up/Down Volume: Terrible
🤖 THE CLAUDE AI BOMBSHELL
What is CLAUDE?
"A family of advanced high-performance large-language models and AI assistance developed by Anthropic."
Friday's News: "Anthropic rolls out autonomous vulnerability hunting AI tools"
💻 SOFTWARE SECURITY - CROWDSTRIKE COLLAPSE
The Two-Day Carnage:
Friday:
- Opened: $431
- Closed: $388
Monday Morning:
- CEO says: "We're not affected"
- Stock drops another: $38 to $350
Total Move: $432 → $350 in 2 days From High: $566 → $350
ZSCALER:
- $172 → $143 since Friday
- Down from $337
Gary: "As we have told you, avoid software stocks. They're in a bear market of unknown price and time."
💀 SOFTWARE - "BRUTAL BRUTAL BRUTAL BRUTAL"
Today's Moves:
- Microsoft: Down $12+
- Oracle: Down $6+
- Salesforce: Down $7+
- Adobe: Down $11+
- SAP: Down $6
They Broke Bear Flags in ETFs Today
Gary's Assessment:
"We're stunned. We're surprised. We're amazed. They are stretched, extended, oversold, unfortunately."
"It is a brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal bear market for software."
"All the bounces have been short-lived, low-volume, and anemic. The sell-offs have been much harder."
Total Carnage (From Highs):
- Microsoft: $555 → $384
- Oracle: $345 → $141
- SAP: $313 → $196
- Adobe: $700 → $246
🏢 IBM - THE COBOL STORY
What is COBOL?
Gary explains:
"COBOL stands for Common Business Oriented Language. It's a high-level, English-like programming language created in 1959 for business, finance, and administrative data processing."
"Despite decades old, it remains critical in banking, insurance, and government sectors."
"I didn't know what it was until today, at all."
The News:
"Claude News... can automate COBOL modernization."
IBM's Reaction:
- Down $34 to $223 (13%)
- 4x average volume
- 3-week drop: $320 → $223
- Week ago: Already dropped $285 → $259 in 2 days (AI concerns)
Gary: "On that news, IBM dropped $34... IBM, on top of software, crashing IBM on COBOL."
🏦 BANKS - BREAKING DOWN
Big Banks - All Breaking 50-Day:
GOLDMAN SACHS:
- Down $30 (3.25%)
- Broke 50-day
JP MORGAN:
- Down 4.25%
- Broke 50-day 2 weeks ago
- Now below 200-day MA
MORGAN STANLEY:
- Down 5%
- Gary: "That's a big top"
BANK OF NEW YORK:
- Broke 50-day (had been strong)
CITIGROUP:
- Broke 50-day
BANK OF AMERICA:
- Gary: "Worse than that"
WELLS FARGO:
- Gary: "Worse than that"
🏦 REGIONAL BANKS - BREAKING SUPPORT
Gary: "They were acting kind of fine."
"I've got a few of them regional banks breaking support levels today, off the highs."
📊 BANK ETFs - ALL BREAKING
Complete Breakdown Across All Bank Indices:
- KBE (S&P Bank Select): Breaks 50-day today
- KBWB (Nasdaq Bank Index): "Really breaks"
- BKX (Banking Nasdaq Bank): "Completely breaks"
- XLF (Financials): "Below everything"
- KRE (Regional Banks): "All the way down, testing all-important 50-day"
Gary: "If you look at these ETFs..."
💳 CREDIT CARDS - DEEPENING BEAR
Today's Carnage:
- American Express: Down $25 (7%)
- MasterCard: Down $30 (almost 6%)
- Visa: Down $14 (4.5%)
- Capital One: Down $9
Gary: "The credit card companies, they have been a void. And they go deeper into their bear phase."
"And by the way, I think they're all 20% plus now."
💼 BROKERAGES - CONTINUING
Today:
- Ameriprise: -$18
- LPL Financial: -$15
- Raymond James: -$5
- Stifel: -$7
- Schwab: Couple percent
Gary: "Their meltdown."
🏦 PRIVATE EQUITY - "CRASHING"
The Complete Carnage:
- Blackstone: $190 → $113
- Apollo: $153 → $113 in 5 weeks
- TPG (Texas Pacific Group): $70 → $42
- Blue Owl: $21 → $10
- ARES: $180 → $114
- KKR: $145 → $92 (almost new yearly lows)
- Evercore (was holding up): $388 → $305
Gary: "What we're being told is they're kind of tied for the software."
💰 CRYPTO - "CLIPPED AGAIN"
Status:
- Bitcoin/Ethereum: "Look ready to do it again also" (break bear flags)
- "Not sure yet. Hasn't done it yet. But certainly set up to do it."
Stocks:
- Coinbase: $444 → $160
- MicroStrategy: $457 → $123
Gary on Ms. Wonderful (Kevin O'Leary):
"While Ms. Wonderful, you know who, goes on TV and says, I expect $1.5 million in Bitcoin by 2030."
"That woman is so lucky I'm not on TV with her."
"And as you know, she's the only one we bring up. We don't take on anybody in this industry. It's tough enough."
🚀 SEMICONDUCTORS - "STRONG AS ALL HELL"
Only Down 46 Points Despite Market Carnage
Green/Strong Today:
- FN: Up $30
- SanDisk: Up $17
- Symbol BE: Up $12
- LITE: Green
- Corning: Green
- Sienna: Green
- Coherent: Green
- Vertiv (data centers): Green
Minor Weakness:
- Western Digital: Down measly $4
- Seagate: Down measly $5
- Taiwan Semi: Flat
End of Day Rally:
Gary: "The NASDAQ at $358 rallied 40 points in the last minute. It was down $300 and finished down $259."
"And you know what they bought up? The semis, the SOX."
"In the last two minutes, it went up 30 points. That area."
🟢 WHAT ELSE IS STRONG
Gold/Silver:
- Silver: "Looks like it's turned up finally"
- Gold miners: "Almost back to the highs"
Defense Stocks: Strong
Defensive:
- Food, drug, beverage, tobacco, household products
- Eli Lilly: Up $50 (news - Gary: "Probably down $50 tomorrow. It's a crazy stock")
Oils: Mixed
📉 OTHER DAMAGE
Apparel:
- Ralph Lauren: Down $20
Retail: Down (maybe tariffs)
Truckers: "Bouncing pretty good, but they had a rough day"
🏛️ GARY ON TRUMP/TARIFFS - "SHEER INSANITY"
On Supreme Court:
Dow down 822 - "I don't know if there's a cause and effect for that"
Gary: "Claiming the Supreme Court has foreign influences. When everything you have done as president has earned your family billions because of foreign influences."
"And that's not opinion. That's being reported everywhere."
On Tariffs/Trade:
"I hate, I loathe, I hate and loathe not being able to compliment the hell out of our leaders. But they have earned the ire. And it's tiresome. And it's exhausting."
"To continue to listen to bull crap day after day after day about higher taxes, tariffs."
"By the way, there hardly have been any trade deals cut. It's all been frameworks."
Europe's Response:
"Europe came out and said we ain't doing anything. We're not signing anything until we figure out what the hell's going on, which is their right."
"And he threatens them."
Gary's Verdict:
"It's sheer insanity, ladies and gentlemen. It's sheer insanity."
"I should be running this country now. But that's not going to happen."
🤔 GARY'S COMPLETE ASSESSMENT
"What's Next? We Don't Have A Freaking Clue"
On Uncertainty:
"When we tell you, when we ask the question, geez, what's next? Our answer is we don't have a freaking clue."
"So we can safely tell you, we don't know where it bubbles up next, but we're going to stay on our toes."
The Bifurcation:
"It's a holy crap moment in the markets."
On one side: "Semiconductor equipment, semiconductor memory chips, and artificial intelligence chips, optical crap, electronics, this, that, and the other thing, parts and cables, memory, storage, data centers that are just strong as all hell."
"It's narrowing, but that area. And of course, the other two areas are the energy slash construction for supposedly all this money that's going to be spent on the data centers."
On the other side: "But the rest of these areas, they're just melting down. It's the only way to put it."
📋 THE COMPLETE AVOID LIST
Gary's explicit avoids:
- ✓ Software ("brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal bear market")
- ✓ Brokers ("remain avoids")
- ✓ Truckers ("ain't touching them")
- ✓ Insurance ("remain avoids")
- ✓ Private equity ("avoids")
- ✓ Credit cards (all 20%+ bear markets)
- ✓ Banks (big banks, regional banks - all breaking down)
- ✓ Crypto (breaking bear flags again)
Everything Hit: "Insurance meltdown because of what? Supposedly AI. Brokerage stocks meltdown... truckers... private equity, buyout shops... crashing also. Crashing in this market."
📊 BANK ETF SUMMARY
Gary listing ALL the bank indices breaking:
- European banks: Topped
- Big banks: Below 50-day
- KBE (S&P Bank Select): Breaks 50-day
- KBWB (Nasdaq Bank): Really breaks
- BKX (Banking Nasdaq): Completely breaks
- XLF (Financials): Below everything
- KRE (Regional Banks): Testing 50-day
Gary: "Wait a minute. Brokerage stocks, lenders, credit cards, private equity companies, investment managers. Oh, the European banks have topped. The big banks are below the 50-day."
Gary's Key Quotes
On Software: "We're stunned. We're surprised. We're amazed."
"It is a brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal bear market for software."
"All the bounces have been short-lived, low-volume, and anemic. The sell-offs have been much harder."
"They're in a bear market of unknown price and time."
On What's Next: "What's next? Our answer is we don't have a freaking clue."
"We don't know where it bubbles up next, but we're going to stay on our toes."
On The Market: "It's a holy crap moment in the markets."
"They're just melting down. It's the only way to put it."
On COBOL: "COBOL, I didn't know what it was until today, at all."
On IBM: "IBM, on top of software, crashing IBM on COBOL."
On Banks: "These bearish phases for these areas deepen today. And until I say otherwise, bounces are just that."
On Ms. Wonderful (O'Leary): "That woman is so lucky I'm not on TV with her."
On Trump: "I hate, I loathe, I hate and loathe not being able to compliment the hell out of our leaders. But they have earned the ire."
"It's sheer insanity, ladies and gentlemen. It's sheer insanity."
"I should be running this country now. But that's not going to happen."
Bottom Line
"HOLY CRAP MOMENT" - Gary's exact words. The market is in complete bifurcation:
One Side: Semiconductors, AI chips, data centers, construction/energy for AI - "strong as all hell" despite -822 Dow. NASDAQ rallied 40 points in last minute as they bought semis. SOX only down 46 points.
Other Side: "Melting down. It's the only way to put it."
CLAUDE AI Bombshell: Anthropic's autonomous vulnerability hunting tools crashed CrowdStrike $432→$350 in 2 days despite CEO saying "we're not affected." Zscaler, other security stocks crushed.
IBM COBOL Story: Claude can "automate COBOL modernization" → IBM down $34 (13%) on 4x volume. $320→$223 in 3 weeks. Gary didn't even know what COBOL was until today.
Banks Complete Breakdown: ALL bank ETFs breaking down (KBE, KBWB, BKX, XLF, KRE). Big banks all broke 50-day (Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley, Citi, BofA, Wells). JP Morgan now below 200-day. Regional banks breaking support. This is the moment Gary was warning about - banks going the way of software.
Private Equity "Crashing": Blackstone $190→$113, Apollo $153→$113, KKR $145→$92, Blue Owl $21→$10, ARES $180→$114. "Tied to software" per Gary.
Credit Cards: All in 20%+ bear markets, AmEx -$25, MasterCard -$30, Visa -$14 today.
Software: Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Adobe, SAP all down again. "Brutal, brutal, brutal, brutal bear market." Broke bear flags. "Unknown price and time."
Gary's Mindset: "What's next? We don't have a freaking clue." Staying on toes. "Holy crap moment."
Trump/Tariffs: "Sheer insanity." Europe won't sign anything, Trump threatens them. "Hardly any trade deals cut, all frameworks." Supreme Court comments insane. "I should be running this country now."
Key Takeaway: The AI disruption Gary warned about (NYT article Feb 19) is accelerating. CLAUDE AI is the new threat. Software getting destroyed, now IBM on COBOL. Banks breaking down exactly as Gary predicted. Everything except semis/AI infrastructure "melting down." Gary genuinely has no clue what's next but staying vigilant.
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