Sunday, September 30, 2012

Feels like we lost the wind at our back

With 2 distribution days, the market is feeling like the wind has left the sails.  And then coupled with Apple's latest blunder with their maps application, and Apple's performance Friday, it's looking quite heavy also.  And now with the most recent PMI numbers coming out of China showing the seventh straight month of slow I said...the wind has appear to have left the sails.

Constructive stocks move in tight ranges.  Lately, we are seeing days were Apple is up 15, then the next day down 17, then the next day up 15.  In 3 weeks Apple will report the quarter, but I wonder what the forward guidance will look especially with the mapping fiasco.

Make of note the following.  We are still above the 50day moving averages, so keep the 401k in place until that thing breaks.  If it does break, you can always hide out in cash.

  • Dow @ 13345, 50 day moving average is at 13,200, the breakout was at 13,340.  If we break down through that breakout (which at 10:50pm CST, it looks like we will) it will not be good news.
  • S&P 50 day is at 1417, we closed @ 1440 and @ 1427 was the breakout
  • Nasdaq breakout was at 3100, we are 3116, 3050 is the 50 day moving average
The transports and semiconductors are looking very weak.  If you are a Dow Theory student, you know that this usually means we are headed lower.

Gold and Silver are looking good and holding a 3 week high pattern which is bullish.  The metals will probably do well as the Fed will continue to print money to help this economy hobble along.  If the $SLV (Silver) breaks above $34.05 or the $GLD > $173.xx it's bullish for both.

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