"BEAR MARKET BOUNCES" - Up 370 After -800, Gary's MicroStrategy CEO Rant
📊 Market Action
- Yesterday: Down 800+
- Today:
- Dow: +370
- NASDAQ: Almost got back what it lost yesterday, but still below 50-day MA
- S&P: +52
📈 WHAT HELPED THE DOW (370 Points)
IBM: +$6 (~40 Dow points)
- Bouncing from yesterday's $30+ drop on COBOL news
APPLE: +$5.50
- Gary: "Acting like a penny stock lately"
- Dropped $20 in 2 days
- "This is the second largest mega cap"
- Now up $17 in 3 days (of that $20)
CATERPILLAR: ~70 Dow points
- "Acting pretty darn good on 0% earnings growth"
- "But it has an AI component"
GOLDMAN SACHS: +$10 (~65 Dow points)
- Yesterday hit high $932, closed $892
- "Moved like 40 points throughout the day"
HOME DEPOT: +$7
- Earnings down 13%
- Revenues down 4% year over year
- Gary: "Those are not good numbers, but it was up"
SALESFORCE: +$7 (in the Dow)
UNITEDHEALTH: -$8 (only thing down)
💻 SOFTWARE - "BE CAREFUL ABOUT BEAR MARKET BOUNCES"
Salesforce:
- Just dropped $270 → $178 in 7+ weeks
- Up $7 today
Gary's Warning:
"Be careful about bear market bounces, right?"
"So of course there'll be a bounce somewhere. And a lot of software stocks bounced today."
"And if they didn't, that's really bad news."
Still Down Today (Despite Sector Bounce):
- Palantir
- Palo Alto Networks
- CrowdStrike
Gary: "There's some names that were down, which for me is actually amazing. And pretty much they're just bear market stocks."
📉 HOW BOTTOMS WORK (Gary's Framework)
The Normal Process:
"How bottoms occur is it finds a place, stops going down, but you have to go up, retest, up, retest."
"And the worse drop, the longer you have to retest before you turn up."
The Exception (News-Driven):
"That said, because a lot of this we're being told is news-driven, there's no rule that you can't get some nice little V-shapes out of this, little quicker moves up."
His Call:
"Again, we'll let you know, but I would suggest that one-day bounce does not cure the ills of that."
🚚 TRUCKERS - ROUGHED UP AGAIN
- Were bouncing
- Had "roughed-up day today"
- Expediters: Reported earnings, "market didn't like it"
- Trashed 7%
Gary: "I'd just be wary of that."
💼 BROKERS - BOUNCING (BUT...)
AMERIPRISE: +$12 today
Gary's Context:
"But it dropped 100."
"And that's what we mean by bounces. Down 100, up 12."
🏗️ AI CONSTRUCTION/STORAGE - "PRETTY STRONG DAY"
The Latest: Meta with AMD deal
The Numbers Being "Bandied About":
Gary: "Meta's going to spend several trillion dollars"
"$100 billion maybe? Sure. Yeah, we're just going to spend $100 billion on chips."
"Because we know we're going to make $100 billion and $1."
Gary's Skepticism:
"And again, I'm not saying they won't. But we've already seen what has happened to some companies that have announced gargantuan spending. Or contracts. Or promises. Whatever you want to call it."
"I wonder how any of these companies are going to make any money with what they are proposing."
💾 SANDISK - SHORT SELLER REPORT
CITRON RESEARCH put out short report
Result: Down $29 today
Gary: "But the stock went up like several billion in the recent past."
"You know, we'll see."
💰 BITCOIN - GARY'S RAGE AT "$1 MILLION" CALLS
Current Price: $64,000 Status: Down almost 50% from highs Not up today: "Amazingly, Bitcoin wasn't up in it. Unreal."
Gary's Rant:
"And amazingly, I saw another talk in his book today. Matter of factly, that's got a million."
"Something that's trading at 64,000 in a brutal bear market down almost 50% now, that's got a million."
"Comes under the heading WT, and you know what the next letter is. I can't tell you how much that pisses me off."
The Math:
"That's got a million. Which is only 14-fold."
"Because you know everything goes up 14-fold, right?"
"Something that has no earnings, sales, product or services. It's just going to go up 14-fold."
"And somebody's going to pay $999,999 to make sure it goes to a million, right? Sure."
The Person Saying This:
"That person who I know owns a ton of it is down almost 50% since October."
Gary's Repeat:
"Just remember what we've said to you about Bitcoin going up or down. No sales, no earnings, no profits, no product, no services, no offices, no employees."
"And nobody can tell me what the fundamental backing is."
The "Limited Supply" Answer:
"They had some macha on TV and they were asked about what's the fundamental backing. And he said, because there's a limited supply."
"And let me just state for you, that is such a doofus answer. But it tells you that's the only answer."
"And that's not going to be good enough if it decides to drop another 50% from here."
🔥 MICROSTRATEGY CEO - GARY'S EPIC RANT
The Stock: Down 75-80%
CEO on TV:
"And he goes on TV and says, well, if it drops another, you know, I'm cool."
"He said something to the effect of, oh, we're covered if it goes down to 8,000."
"No, he said that."
Gary's Response:
"Do you realize if it went to 8,000, it's over?"
"I mean, the dude's a yutz. And I'd say it to his face."
"Imagine, he should be FIRED as CEO."
"Any CEO that says something like that, oh, if it drops 90% from the highs, we're good. What? What?"
"Welcome to corporate America and some of the maniacs on corporate America."
"The opposite of a Warren Buffett. It's the best way I can put it."
Gary's Previous Warning:
"So you're welcome if you listened, especially on the micro strategy. Because that dude's insane."
🥇 GOLD/SILVER - MINERS IMPRESSIVE
GOLD MINERS:
- Gary: "Very impressed with the gold miners"
- "Very much outperforming the metal"
Gold: Down today Silver: Down today
- Gary: "I consider those normal pullbacks"
Gold vs Silver:
- "Silver much weaker than the gold right now"
- "But silver definitely a higher beta - means it moves a lot quicker up and down"
- "So if it gets going, it can get going"
- "Without a doubt, gold is much stronger at this juncture"
🪙 GOLD VS BITCOIN QUESTION
Question: "Do you think Bitcoin is weak because gold is strong and that money..."
Gary: "Yeah, I do that. That's part of it."
"I don't care about other reasons because I really don't know."
🌍 FOREIGN MARKETS - NOW ON GARY'S SCREEN
YTD Performance:
- NASDAQ: Still down almost 2%
- S&P: Flat
- Small/Mid-Caps: Better
- SOUTH KOREA: Up 40% (!)
Gary's New Approach:
"And I never used to play foreign markets and I never had to. Foreign markets have underperformed. Huge margins."
"There are some foreign markets right now that are just breaking above their 2006, 2007 highs."
"So they are now on my screen. And I am paying attention to them, knowing though they are less liquid."
"And if I do decide to play, I've got to be on my toes."
Government Risk:
"You know what you have with foreign markets, some of them at least now? You've got government risk."
CHINA - NEVER AGAIN:
"I don't think I'll ever play China again. I think there's too much government risk."
"I still remember when China told their education companies, symbols T-A-L and E-D-U, they shouldn't have profits and they both dropped 90%. And then they changed their minds."
"So we'll see."
RUSSIA: "I'm not playing any Russian stocks."
📈 OTHER MEGA CAP BOUNCES
AMD: +$17
- Meta deal - "Meta's going to spend all kinds of money on their chips"
BROADCOM: Down (no bounce)
MICROSOFT: +$3
- "But that's still down $170 bucks from the highs"
TESLA: +$9
- "But Tesla's down $100 bucks from the highs"
Tesla Support Level:
Gary: "I will say this about Tesla. That $390 to $400 looks like real good support."
"A break below there and get the life raft."
"Looks like that's going to hold for now."
Tesla Fundamentals:
- Last 4 quarters earnings: Down 40%, 23%, 31%, 17%
- Sales: Down 3% in last 4 quarters
- "Getting their butts beat by the China electric vehicle"
🛢️ OIL - GOING UP
Status: "Getting a little elevated"
Gary: "I can promise you in a few days, prices are going up at the pump"
Gary on Trump Campaign Guy:
"I saw a Trump campaign guy today say $2 oil across the country."
"No, the average is $2.90. Dumbass."
"That's what I hate about these people. I've got to call them on the carpet like every freaking day."
The Reality:
"Average is about $2.85, $2.95 around the country."
"There are some things down at $2... like in Idaho or something. You can say that. It's not the BS."
Gary's Price: "I paid $3.10 for the middle. Whatever you call that."
📊 INDICES STATUS
NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100:
- Remain below 50-day MA
- "Done nothing for over four months"
S&P: Same
Bond Market: "Continues to be nice"
📉 AFTERMARKET - EARNINGS STILL GOING DOWN
Software Stocks Reporting:
- Workday: Crashed, reporting earnings, still going down
- GoDaddy: Same
Gary: "You know what is amazing? I've got some software stocks that have crashed, and they're reporting earnings, and they're still going down! Wow."
Gary's Key Quotes
On Bounces: "Be careful about bear market bounces."
"Down 100, up 12. And that's what we mean by bounces."
"One-day bounce does not cure the ills of that."
On Bottoms: "The worse drop, the longer you have to retest before you turn up."
On Apple: "Acting like a penny stock lately."
On Meta Spending: "I wonder how any of these companies are going to make any money with what they are proposing."
On Bitcoin at $1M: "I can't tell you how much that pisses me off."
"Everything goes up 14-fold, right?"
"Limited supply - that is such a doofus answer."
On MicroStrategy CEO: "The dude's a yutz. And I'd say it to his face."
"He should be FIRED as CEO."
"If it drops 90% from the highs, we're good. What? What?"
"The opposite of a Warren Buffett."
On China: "I don't think I'll ever play China again. Too much government risk."
On Trump Campaign: "$2 oil across the country. No, the average is $2.90. Dumbass."
"I've got to call them on the carpet like every freaking day."
On Foreign Markets: "They are now on my screen."
On Gold Miners: "Very impressed with the gold miners."
Bottom Line
Classic Bear Market Bounce: Dow +370 after -800. Software bounced but Gary warns: "Be careful about bear market bounces." Some software still down (Palantir, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike) despite sector up - "actually amazing."
Apple "Acting Like Penny Stock": Dropped $20 in 2 days, up $17 in 3 days. This is the second largest mega cap.
Bottoming Process: "Finds place, stops going down, but up, retest, up, retest." The worse the drop, the longer the retest. Could get V-shapes because news-driven, but "one-day bounce does not cure the ills."
Gary's Bitcoin RAGE: Person calling for $1 million Bitcoin (14x from $64k) while down 50% themselves. "I can't tell you how much that pisses me off." No earnings, sales, product, services. "Limited supply" answer is "such a doofus answer."
MicroStrategy CEO Epic Rant: Stock down 75-80%, CEO says "we're cool if Bitcoin goes to $8,000." Gary: "The dude's a yutz. I'd say it to his face. He should be FIRED as CEO." Any CEO saying "if it drops 90% we're good. What? What?" "The opposite of Warren Buffett."
Meta/AMD $100B Spending: "I wonder how any of these companies are going to make any money" with these gargantuan spending announcements.
Gold Miners: "Very impressed" - outperforming metal. Gold much stronger than silver.
Foreign Markets: Now on Gary's screen - some just breaking 2006-2007 highs. South Korea up 40%. But won't play China again (education company disaster - told they shouldn't have profits, dropped 90%).
Tesla: $390-400 is "real good support. A break below and get the life raft." Earnings down 40%/23%/31%/17% last 4 quarters, getting beat by China EVs.
Oil Rising: Prices going up at pump despite Trump campaign saying "$2 across country" - Gary: "No, average is $2.90. Dumbass."
Aftermarket: Software stocks reporting earnings still going down (Workday, GoDaddy).
Key Takeaway: This is a bear market bounce, not a bottom. Gary watching for proper bottoming process (up, retest, up, retest). His MicroStrategy CEO rant is legendary - calling him a "yutz" who should be fired. The $1M Bitcoin calls while people are down 50% enrage him. One-day bounce doesn't cure anything.
