📅 Tuesday, November 4, 2025
"THEY GOT THE PRETTY GIRLS" - Institutions Dump AI/Semis, No-Sales Carnage
Market Action
- Dow: -250 points
- S&P: -80 points
- NASDAQ: -486 points
- NASDAQ 100: -537 points
- SOX (Semis): -300 points (-3.6%)
- Close: 23,348 (ONE DAY OFF THE HIGHS)
Breadth DISASTER:
- NYSE: 41 new highs (really only 25 operating companies), 144 new lows
- NASDAQ: 67 new highs, 274 new lows
- Advanced/Declines: NYSE 13 up/31 down, NASDAQ 11 up/35 down
- Gary: "The internals of the market SUCK, and they worsened today"
"They Got the Pretty Girls": Institutions sold the strong stocks (AI/semis/tech) on VOLUME today. Gary: "The pretty girls are the strong stocks, the strongest names, the leading names. At the highs, the great names are over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced. And when things turn, there's only one thing left. Sell."
Leading Sectors 🟢
Money Flowed to Defensive (Boring/Value/Low Beta):
- Insurance - Bounced (had been weak)
- Restaurants - Bounced (had been weak)
- Medicals - Bounced
- Defense - Acted fine
- Drugs - Bounced (McKesson, Eli Lilly)
Lagging Sectors 🔴
The "Pretty Girls" Got Hit:
- Semiconductors - Down 3.6%, down 300 points
- AI Stocks - "Made a nice little air pocket"
- Tech - Across the board selling
- Crypto - Bitcoin breaking 200-day MA, Ethereum smoked
- AI Energy Names - GEV, TLN breaking down
- Germany DAX - Broke 50-day, living below it
No-Sales Carnage (Gary Vindicated):
- Nuclear - Multiple stocks down 30-60% in 3 weeks
- Quantum - Collapsing
- Rare Earth - Obliterated (see below)
Leading Stocks 🚀
Earnings Winners:
- Expediters International (transports) - +13 (11%)
- Marriott - +$8 (but still weak overall)
- Sanmina (SANM) - Contract manufacturer, +$23 to breakout
- Wingstop - +$20 (after dropping $200)
- Yum! Brands (Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC) - +$10 (7%)
Lagging Stocks 📉
No-Sales Speculation CRUSHED (Gary's "I Told You So"):
Nuclear (25 Years Public, ZERO Sales):
- One company: $194 → $112 in 3 weeks (still $16B market cap, was $26B!)
- Another: $6 → $31, now collapsing back down
- Gary: "If your son or daughter started a lemonade stand that sold one cup, they'd have more sales than these companies"
Rare Earth Obliteration:
- $100 → $54 in 3 weeks
- $16.25 → $6.25 in 3 weeks
- $32 → $11 in 3 weeks
- $44 → $16 in 3 weeks
- "Massive losses. 30% to 60% drops."
The Big 8 Status Check (70% of NASDAQ 100, 38% of S&P):
- Meta - Bad shape ❌
- Microsoft - Worsening but hanging 🟡
- Amazon - Strong off earnings ✅
- Apple - Acting okay ✅
- Broadcom - Coming in pretty good 🟡
- Google - Pulling back but been strong ✅
- NVIDIA - Dropped below 200-day today 🟡
- Tesla - Down $24, roughed up 🟡
- 6 of 8 still hanging in
Other Major Drops:
- Palantir - Down 16.5% on great earnings (acceleration even!) - BUT paying $452B for under $4B revenue
- AMD - Down $10 today, $6 more aftermarket = $16 total drop
- Crypto Massacre:
- Bitcoin - Breaking 200-day MA "like hot knife through butter"
- Ethereum - Smoked
- MicroStrategy (now "Strategy") - $457 → $247, "keep borrowing money and buying Bitcoin as it goes lower. What a strategy."
Gary's "Left Screen" (Weak Tech):
- Worsening "pretty damn good" today
- "When the weak keep weakening, not the greatest of signs"
Gary's Positioning 💰
- Avoided all no-sales speculation (nuclear, quantum, rare earth) ✅
- Warned about crypto - "You're welcome"
- Watching support levels on former leaders
- "Our job now is to measure. Look to see where support levels are. See if they get taken out. If they hold. Which names do it? Which don't?"
- Money defensive today but "we have no clue about tomorrow"
Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯
Gary's vindication moment: "In bad markets, eventually they get the pretty girls." The institutions sold the strong stocks (AI/semis) on volume today after everything Gary warned about is collapsing (no-sales stocks down 30-60%). The setup: "At the highs, great names are over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced. When things turn, there's only one thing left. Sell." He's watching support levels carefully. "To what extent, we don't know. Does it last? Does it stop? Don't know." But the curtains are coming down: "In bull markets, valuations. When things get roughed up, the curtains come down. And then, uh-oh moments."
Key Observations 💡
- Gary's Warning Validated: All the no-sales stocks he warned about for weeks are down 30-60% in 3 weeks - nuclear, quantum, rare earth
- 25 Years, No Sales: Nuclear company public since 2000, NEVER had sales, still $16B market cap (was $26B 3 weeks ago)
- "Pretty Girls" Concept: Strong stocks get hit because they're what institutions have left to sell - over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced
- Palantir Valuation Insanity: $452B market cap on under $4B revenue despite GREAT accelerating numbers
- 274 New Lows ONE DAY Off Highs: NASDAQ at 23,348 vs 14,784 crash low = 274 stocks below crash levels
- Tout Artists Shut Up: Gary notes the people pumping no-sales stocks have suddenly gone quiet
- Vendor Financing: Gary thinking about 1999 parallel where companies lent money to customers to buy their products
- Bitcoin Prophet: Someone on TV yesterday predicted $150K by year-end (45% in 2 months) - "What the hell's the matter with that person?"
- Germany DAX Breaking: Broke 50-day, living below - "They're like in a recession"
