"I TOLD YOU SO" - Gary's Litany of No-Sales Carnage, Concentration Warning
Market Action (Another Mushy Day)
- Dow: -95, S&P: -9, NASDAQ: -55, NASDAQ 100: -163
- Russell/mid-caps: Down
- SOX: Finished -9, but was up 50 at one point (pulled in hard)
Gary: "Another mushy day as we head into the... not a lot to add."
🔥 GARY'S FURY: THE NO-SALES CARNAGE LITANY
Gary went through 40+ stocks, all down 50-70%, most topped 2 months ago:
194→72, 16.25→6.25, 44→12, 61→24, 43→12, 14.50→1.72, 100→50, 31→12.75, 62→22, 11.50→3.40, 21→13, 19.75→5, 16→8, 6.60→2.40, 50→10, 50→10, 80→8, 80→8 (!), 161→27, 23→9, 57→14, 57→14, 25→14, 10.50→4.40, 11.25→4.30, 22→10, 240→82, 14.60→7.50, 32→7, 44→12...
Gary: "Do you know what all these have in common? They're mostly all down 50% if not 60 or 70, most all of them topped out two months ago and are down 50, 60, 70%, but you're not hearing about them except for us."
Why Gary's Pissed:
"We watched a bunch of growth guys go online and in social media and tell you some of these no-sales companies were growth stocks, no sales, growth stocks, they lied, you had many touting them, shouting at you because their themes: nuclear companies, quantum computers, drones, robo-taxis, or robo-whatever, miners of Bitcoin, my favorite one is the Rare Earth."
"How did we know? Study of bull and bear markets, what happens to no-sales companies? Little did we know that they would top out in October, most of them, and crash."
"Nobody bringing them up because I bet you they all sold on the first down tick while they kept touting you."
Gary's Goal:
"We believe our number one goal here is when things are at extremes, and valuations are a joke, and crazy themes are going crazy to the upside, there's a hell of a lot of money to lose, and it's our job to warn."
"When the music stops, what pisses me off more than anything is the Rare Earths, because I think there's like 15 to 20 of them, and I think there's one that has sales, the rest did not."
🚨 RARE EARTH ANGER - Government Involvement
The Setup:
"It was unfortunate that the administration brought them up and actually named names, there was two companies that mentioned, yes, we had conversations with the president, and the stocks went skyward."
One Example:
- Stock went $2.70 → $16.28 "before you can blink"
- Mentioned "conversations with the president"
- October 14th: Stock up 81% - "company engaged the head of high-level critical mineral talks with US president Donald Trump"
- Now down 65-70% from high
- Still has no sales
- Just did a secondary (dilutes shareholders, "screws you")
Gary: "It pisses me off, because it dilutes the stakeholder, and screws you."
💀 OKLO UPDATE - Founders Cashed Out
- 194 → 71 (was 74 yesterday)
- Founders sold $340 MILLION of stock
- Still has no sales
Gary: "I don't blame them, I'm not even pissed at them, I would too. What irks me, is how these things get touted up the wazoo, in order for the insiders to sell massive amounts of stock, and watch the stocks crash afterwards."
📚 HISTORICAL WARNINGS - Gary Was Right
RIVIAN (November 2021 IPO):
- IPO: $78, $80B market cap, no sales
- Next day: $180, $200B market cap
- GM + Ford together, with $250B sales, had equal market cap
- Gary: "We yelled that the ass clowns on Wall Street brought it out"
- By June 20, 2023: $180 → $14
- Now: $19 (do have sales now, "but still lose a ton")
BEYOND MEAT (2019):
- $100B market cap (selling plants)
- Gary: "We simply said... who's going to eat plants, and for how long?"
- Now: Bankrupt
GAMESTOP:
- "Had that initial move, crashed, had another move, and then crashed, because valuations always are gonna matter"
Gary: "One plus one equals two, ladies and gentling. Valuations would matter."
Gary's Plea 🙏
"So, I plead with you, I beg of you, be smart, we think you're already smart by listening, you're gonna get one thing here, you're not gonna get anywhere else, we call it the watch out below."
"I just went through, what, 40 names that are down 50% or more, I can do another 200, and all in the same realm: drones, bitcoin mining, robo this, nuclear, quantum, rare earth."
"If you're involved with these disasters, you ain't gonna have any money to invest."
"The most not talked about story of the last just two to three months, is the 50% plus drops, in hundreds of touted, themed stuff, with no sales, or very little sales, that were told you, that were told to you, oh they're growth, horse crap."
"You've worked your tail off your whole life to protect that money, am I correct?"
Metals: "Eiffel Tower-ish" 🗼
Today's Action:
- Huge gaps up, gargantuan gap down yesterday, gap up today
- Sold back down toward close
- Palladium: Down
- Platinum: Up but way off highs
- Gold: Up but way off highs
- Silver: Strongest, remained decent though off highs
SILVER (SLV) - THE PARABOLIC MOVE:
- Broke out around $49-50
- Went to $71 in 4-5 weeks
- That's 40% in 4+ weeks
Gary: "That's an insane sign. We're not saying it's not going higher, it certainly could, for all we know, some of these things just feel like Eiffel Tower-ish, we'll know in the days ahead."
"At the very least, you know the line, stretched, extended, overbought, noisy, we'll see what the outcome is, stunning."
Gary's Edge:
"For me, absolutely no edge on telling you what to do here, or how to do it, I just don't know."
🚨 GARY'S BIGGEST WORRY: CONCENTRATION
"You know my biggest worry, right? There's no bears, especially on technology, there's no bears on tech."
The Mechanism:
"These big mutual funds and hedge funds own huge, huge amounts of the stocks, when things go awry, they are in their meetings, portfolio managers and executives: 'How many shares do you have?'"
Recent Examples:
COREWEAVE:
- Down 60%, "highly touted AI name"
- Institutions: "Get me the hell out"
- Insider selling too
UBER:
- "Five skyscraper days of volume in the last, I don't know, two, three months, all big down days"
- Gary: "That's not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling, those are the marks, those are the breadcrumbs on the trail, that's how it works."
- Institutions: "We own too many shares"
ORACLE:
- Dropped 50% from September
- "The Larry Ellison's technology company, that's not supposed to happen"
- "Why does it happen? Because everybody got tons of shares, and something happened, there was a belief that, oh, these back orders and backlogs ain't gonna happen."
The Risk:
"If there's any worry I have, and by the way, we're not predicting it, it's the concentration of all these things, we can see what concentration does, when things go the wrong way."
"Great companies, their great earnings growth stopped, because whatever reason, and it stopped near the highs, where the big institutions own tons of shares, and in their meetings, 'How many shares do we have?' And then it feeds on itself, support levels get broken, moving averages get broken, you get the hint."
Other Worries (Ranked)
NOT Worried:
- Liberation Day tariffs: "I think they learned their lesson"
Somewhat Worried:
- Interest rates to 1%: "Which will mean nothing to you, except you get screwed on your money markets, that could have mortgage rates go higher" (they control short-term, mortgages tied to long-term)
Very Worried:
- JOB MARKET: "We keep hearing about golden age, and the greatest economy, and this and that, the job market sucks right now, the numbers are terrible"
- "Not the four, what is it, four, six unemployment rates, it's the trend, and the creation of jobs is way down"
- "Could possibly have to do with artificial intelligence, I don't know"
Political BS Alert:
"The backers are out there BS-ing, when under Biden, there was a 200,000 month, oh, numbers suck, Trump gets a 50,000 month, oh, good number, so you got to be careful about that."
"Remember, we have no bias, no agenda, no ulterior motive, just to tell you how it is."
Gary's Career/Job Advice 💼
"Job market, and that's why we've said to you many times in the past, become indispensable if you're working for others, become the most important people at the company."
"If you work for others, work harder, work smarter, work longer, work better, market yourself well, without kissing the you-know-what, because you never know."
"I've owned my business forever, because I've seen too many talented people lose their jobs, for whatever reason, that's why I'm such a big believer in entrepreneurship, owning your own business, because you never know."
"When I read stories of people that get fired after 30, 40 years, and get nothing, pisses me off, but welcome to our world, that is how it works."
Gary's Key Quotes
On the Carnage:
"We warned you, we told you if nothing changed, eventually, ultimately, they will all go back to where they came from."
"I have just noticed nobody bringing them up because I bet you they all sold on the first down tick while they kept touting you."
On His Mission:
"We're gonna keep doing what we are doing, we're not gonna let up, and we're gonna still tell you, we're not sure if they rally these things back up again, we don't know, we've seen it before."
"Valuations always are gonna matter, when all's said and done."
On Wall Street:
"How these things get touted up the wazoo, in order for the insiders to sell massive amounts of stock, and watch the stocks crash afterwards."
On Concentration:
"When things are good, when things are rolling, the opposite: 'How many shares do we own now? We don't own enough, get some more.' The worry is that concentration, if things go awry."
On Metals:
"What does this move in metals mean? That adds to my little worry list."
Personal Note:
Gary mentioned upcoming changes to his YouTube and show in January.
What to Watch
- Concentration in big tech (institutions selling on weakness)
- Metals: "Eiffel Tower" parabolic tops?
- Silver at $71 after 40% run in 4 weeks
- Job market trends (not just unemployment rate)
- SOX volatility (up 50 intraday, finished -9)
- More 50%+ crashes in themed no-sales stocks
Bottom Line: Gary's victory lap on warning about no-sales stocks, but also deep concern about concentration risk in big tech and deteriorating job market.
