GOAL-LINE STAND

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

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📅 Friday, November 14, 2025

"GOAL-LINE STAND" - 50-Day Defended, NVIDIA $9.50 Reversal

Market Action

• Dow: -300 points
• NASDAQ: Down 464 points at open (22,436), finished UP 30 (22,900)
• NASDAQ 100: Down 460 points at open (24,534), finished UP 14 (25,008)
• SOX (Semis): Hit 65.87 (below 50-day of 66.39), closed 68.11 (defended!)
• NVIDIA: Low 180.58 (down $9.50), closed 190.17 (UP $3.31) - $13 reversal!

THE DEFENSE: Gary's technical masterclass on the 50-day moving average. After yesterday's horrible drop, the NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100/Semis all undercut their 50-day MAs in early trading, then REVERSED and closed above them. "The big guns were out there. They were in recognition." Gary calls it a "goal-line stand."

50-Day Levels Defended:

• NASDAQ 50-day: 22,835 (closed 22,900 = 65 points above)
• NASDAQ 100 50-day: ~24,500 (closed 25,008)
• SOX 50-day: 66.39 (closed 68.11)
• NVIDIA: Defended again (did same thing last week)

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Semiconductors - Led the defense, closed strong
2. AI/Tech - Reversed sharply from morning lows
3. NVIDIA - Most important stock, $13 reversal from lows

Lagging Sectors 🔴

1. Banks - Goldman -$14, JPM -$6 ("that's a home")
2. Payments - MasterCard and Visa "really breaking down now"
3. Bitcoin/Crypto - Continuing collapse (see below)

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winner:

• Sedara Therapeutics - Merck acquiring for $9.2B cash ($221.50/share), stock +105% to $217.67
  • Gary's caveat: "No sales for 10 years. Phase 3 flu drug. We didn't own it."
  • His point: "There IS that other side of us saying we're not going to buy no-sales stuff"

The Reversal Heroes:

• NVIDIA - Low $180.58, closed $190.17 (+$3.31) = $13 swing, defended 50-day AGAIN
• Semiconductors - All reversed hard, closed strong above 50-day
• NASDAQ Stocks - Many reversed sharply from morning carnage

Lagging Stocks 📉

Bitcoin/MicroStrategy Crisis:

• Bitcoin - Down 24-25% from highs (124,310 → 94,358 currently)
  • High 5 weeks ago: 72, now 53
• MicroStrategy (MSTR/Strategy) - Down 65% from highs
  • July high: $457
  • Last November high: $543
  • Current: Under $200
  • Gary: "People calling what Saylor's doing a scheme. Leveraged to the hilt in one asset."
  • Concerns: Forced selling due to leverage (like 2008 mortgage crisis)
  • "When you are leveraged at 10 and 20 to one, that guaranteed bankruptcy"

Banks/Payments Breaking:

• Goldman Sachs - -$14
• JP Morgan - -$6
• MasterCard - Breaking down
• Visa - Breaking down
• Oracle - Dropped 322.5 → 210 in 5 weeks (bear market), bounced at 200-day today

Still Broken:

• Dozens of stocks - "Living below the 50-day moving average now"
• Gary: "Drops take pretenders or lessers off the table"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Shopify (SHOP): Saw CEO present at Barron Capital conference in NYC - "guy was terrific, fantastic presentation"
  • Not advocating buy/sell, does not own currently
  • "Very impressed, gonna do a lot more research"
  • Stock just back to late 2021 highs
• Watching 50-day defenses closely
• "We deal in real time. A great defense today."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary's 50-day moving average masterclass: In bull markets, the 50-day consistently gets defended. The longer it holds and more times it's tested successfully, "the end problem is it conditions the masses that the next time it's gonna succeed again. But if the next time it breaks, the masses are not ready and do not believe and they get caught. We don't because we recognize that other part of the equation." Today was a "goal-line stand" - the big indices have NOT closed below 50-day since late April. But Gary warns: "We've now started to test them a little longer, a few more times, and eventually we'll get late stage, finally break it, we'll recognize it, the masses will not."

Key Observations 💡

• 50-Day Moving Average Tutorial: Gary's detailed explanation of how institutions defend it in bull markets until late stage when it finally breaks
• The Undercut Pattern: "Very often what happens is what is known as an undercut. The undercut happens early" - institutions let it dip below then buy aggressively
• NVIDIA Double Defense: Did exact same reversal pattern last week - most important tell
• Goal-Line Stand: "When I sent out my notes this morning, I stated look at this, look at that... But we are gonna need a goal-line stand right here, and you got one today"
• Merck's $9.2B Bet: Buying 10-year-old company with zero sales for phase 3 flu drug - shows other side of no-sales avoidance
• MicroStrategy Leverage Bomb: Down 65% while Bitcoin only down 24% - "scheme" concerns, forced selling worries
• Since Late April: Not ONE day with close below 50-day for big indices
• The Conditioning: "The masses today, sigh of relief, a big sigh of relief in the market"
• 200-Day Significance: Oracle hit it today within $1, bounced $12 (but still bear market bounce)
• "They Cannot Time Markets": Gary: "That's because they never tried, because you have to work at it"

THEY GOT THE PRETTY GIRLS - Institutions Dump AI/Semis, No-Sales Carnage

 

📅 Tuesday, November 4, 2025

"THEY GOT THE PRETTY GIRLS" - Institutions Dump AI/Semis, No-Sales Carnage

Market Action

• Dow: -250 points
• S&P: -80 points
• NASDAQ: -486 points
• NASDAQ 100: -537 points
• SOX (Semis): -300 points (-3.6%)
• Close: 23,348 (ONE DAY OFF THE HIGHS)

Breadth DISASTER:

• NYSE: 41 new highs (really only 25 operating companies), 144 new lows
• NASDAQ: 67 new highs, 274 new lows
• Advanced/Declines: NYSE 13 up/31 down, NASDAQ 11 up/35 down
• Gary: "The internals of the market SUCK, and they worsened today"

"They Got the Pretty Girls": Institutions sold the strong stocks (AI/semis/tech) on VOLUME today. Gary: "The pretty girls are the strong stocks, the strongest names, the leading names. At the highs, the great names are over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced. And when things turn, there's only one thing left. Sell."

Leading Sectors 🟢

Money Flowed to Defensive (Boring/Value/Low Beta):

1. Insurance - Bounced (had been weak)
2. Restaurants - Bounced (had been weak)
3. Medicals - Bounced
4. Defense - Acted fine
5. Drugs - Bounced (McKesson, Eli Lilly)

Lagging Sectors 🔴

The "Pretty Girls" Got Hit:

1. Semiconductors - Down 3.6%, down 300 points
2. AI Stocks - "Made a nice little air pocket"
3. Tech - Across the board selling
4. Crypto - Bitcoin breaking 200-day MA, Ethereum smoked
5. AI Energy Names - GEV, TLN breaking down
6. Germany DAX - Broke 50-day, living below it

No-Sales Carnage (Gary Vindicated):

• Nuclear - Multiple stocks down 30-60% in 3 weeks
• Quantum - Collapsing
• Rare Earth - Obliterated (see below)

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winners:

• Expediters International (transports) - +13 (11%)
• Marriott - +$8 (but still weak overall)
• Sanmina (SANM) - Contract manufacturer, +$23 to breakout
• Wingstop - +$20 (after dropping $200)
• Yum! Brands (Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC) - +$10 (7%)

Lagging Stocks 📉

No-Sales Speculation CRUSHED (Gary's "I Told You So"):

Nuclear (25 Years Public, ZERO Sales):

• One company: $194 → $112 in 3 weeks (still $16B market cap, was $26B!)
• Another: $6 → $31, now collapsing back down
• Gary: "If your son or daughter started a lemonade stand that sold one cup, they'd have more sales than these companies"

Rare Earth Obliteration:

• $100 → $54 in 3 weeks
• $16.25 → $6.25 in 3 weeks
• $32 → $11 in 3 weeks
• $44 → $16 in 3 weeks
• "Massive losses. 30% to 60% drops."

The Big 8 Status Check (70% of NASDAQ 100, 38% of S&P):

1. Meta - Bad shape ❌
2. Microsoft - Worsening but hanging 🟡
3. Amazon - Strong off earnings ✅
4. Apple - Acting okay ✅
5. Broadcom - Coming in pretty good 🟡
6. Google - Pulling back but been strong ✅
7. NVIDIA - Dropped below 200-day today 🟡
8. Tesla - Down $24, roughed up 🟡

• 6 of 8 still hanging in

Other Major Drops:

• Palantir - Down 16.5% on great earnings (acceleration even!) - BUT paying $452B for under $4B revenue
• AMD - Down $10 today, $6 more aftermarket = $16 total drop
• Crypto Massacre:
  • Bitcoin - Breaking 200-day MA "like hot knife through butter"
  • Ethereum - Smoked
  • MicroStrategy (now "Strategy") - $457 → $247, "keep borrowing money and buying Bitcoin as it goes lower. What a strategy."

Gary's "Left Screen" (Weak Tech):

• Worsening "pretty damn good" today
• "When the weak keep weakening, not the greatest of signs"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Avoided all no-sales speculation (nuclear, quantum, rare earth) ✅
• Warned about crypto - "You're welcome"
• Watching support levels on former leaders
• "Our job now is to measure. Look to see where support levels are. See if they get taken out. If they hold. Which names do it? Which don't?"
• Money defensive today but "we have no clue about tomorrow"

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary's vindication moment: "In bad markets, eventually they get the pretty girls." The institutions sold the strong stocks (AI/semis) on volume today after everything Gary warned about is collapsing (no-sales stocks down 30-60%). The setup: "At the highs, great names are over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced. When things turn, there's only one thing left. Sell." He's watching support levels carefully. "To what extent, we don't know. Does it last? Does it stop? Don't know." But the curtains are coming down: "In bull markets, valuations. When things get roughed up, the curtains come down. And then, uh-oh moments."

Key Observations 💡

• Gary's Warning Validated: All the no-sales stocks he warned about for weeks are down 30-60% in 3 weeks - nuclear, quantum, rare earth
• 25 Years, No Sales: Nuclear company public since 2000, NEVER had sales, still $16B market cap (was $26B 3 weeks ago)
• "Pretty Girls" Concept: Strong stocks get hit because they're what institutions have left to sell - over-owned, over-loved, over-leveraged, over-priced
• Palantir Valuation Insanity: $452B market cap on under $4B revenue despite GREAT accelerating numbers
• 274 New Lows ONE DAY Off Highs: NASDAQ at 23,348 vs 14,784 crash low = 274 stocks below crash levels
• Tout Artists Shut Up: Gary notes the people pumping no-sales stocks have suddenly gone quiet
• Vendor Financing: Gary thinking about 1999 parallel where companies lent money to customers to buy their products
• Bitcoin Prophet: Someone on TV yesterday predicted $150K by year-end (45% in 2 months) - "What the hell's the matter with that person?"
• Germany DAX Breaking: Broke 50-day, living below - "They're like in a recession"

LOOK OUT BELOW" - 167 New Lows as NASDAQ Up 9,000 Points

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

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📅 Friday, October 31, 2025 🎃

"LOOK OUT BELOW" - 167 New Lows as NASDAQ Up 9,000 Points

Market Action

• Dow: +40 points (dropped 150 points in last 5 minutes)
• NASDAQ: +143 points (dropped 100 points in last 5 minutes)
• NASDAQ Close: 23,724 (1% off Wednesday's all-time high of 24,019)
• Rough close but "not a biggie"

THE STUNNING INTERNAL DISASTER:

• NASDAQ up 9,000 points from April crash lows (14,784 → 23,724)
• BUT: 167 new yearly lows vs only 116 new yearly highs TODAY
• Translation: 167 stocks are BELOW their April crash lows while NASDAQ up 9,000!
• Only 50 new highs if you exclude non-operating companies
• NYSE also had more new lows than new highs (closed 21,400 vs 16,800 crash low)

RECORD CONCENTRATION (Gary's Bombshell Math):

• NASDAQ 100: 8 stocks = 70%, 92 stocks = 30%
• S&P 500: 8 stocks = 40%, 492 stocks = 60%
• Gary's Example: "If 492 stocks down 10% each, but 8 stocks up 12%, index would be FLAT"

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Tech/AI/Semis - Still leading but "one note" market
2. Solar - First Solar +$33 (14%)
3. Data Centers - Still working

Lagging Sectors 🔴

• Everything Else - 167 stocks at new yearly lows below April crash
• All sectors Gary's been warning about - Still in bear markets

Leading Stocks 🚀

• Twilio - +$22 (20%) on earnings
• CloudFlare (NET) - +14%
• Amazon - Opened +$30, closed +$21 (distributed)
• First Solar - +$33 (14%)
• Netflix - +$30 on 10-for-1 split announcement (Gary warns: be careful!)

Lagging Stocks 📉

Big Name Breakdowns:

• Microsoft - -$9, "avoid on new money"
• Meta - -$18 after big gap down yesterday, breaking 6-month support, back to December levels
• Apple - Gapped up on earnings, finished DOWN (distribution)
• SAP - Broke 50-day, avoid
• Oracle - Broke 50-day, avoid
• Salesforce - Bearish trend, avoid
• Adobe - Bearish trend, avoid
• Costco - Bearish trend, avoid

Crypto:

• Bitcoin - "Just above last November" = 11 months of NO GAINS despite "$1M, $5M, $10M" hype
• IBIT - "If it takes out last two weeks, run for the hills"
• Ethereum/Crypto - Avoid on new money

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Amazon: Not buying the gap yet - "I'm not yet"
• Apple: Not chasing after gap & fade
• Meta/Microsoft: Complete avoids
• Bitcoin/Crypto: Avoid on new money
• Staying Large Cap/Mega Cap/Tech: "That's where money's been flowing"
• Watching 50-day moving averages like a hawk

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary's Most Explicit Warning Yet: "When - not IF - technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, data storage go into a bear market, and that money does NOT flow big time into that other rest of the market... LOOK OUT BELOW." He emphasizes "When? Two years from now? Six months from now? It's not next week." The internals are "not very good" with 167 stocks at new yearly lows while NASDAQ up 9,000 points from April. First shot across the bow: indices breaking 50-day MA (hasn't happened since April confirmation day).

Key Observations 💡

• Hindenburg Omen: People emailing about it appearing - Gary acknowledges but says "market will decide"
• Government Shutdown Disaster: Gary's 8.5-hour flight delay nightmare, air traffic controllers not paid, staffing crisis
• "They All Suck": Republicans and Marxist Party brought us to $38 trillion debt, can't agree to reopen government
• Netflix Split Warning: 10-for-1 announced (+$30 today), but Gary warns: "Be careful buying splits" - Chipotle did 50-for-1 June '24, stock 69→31 since
• 50-Day Cushion: S&P 3% above (6840 vs 6640), NASDAQ 5% above (23,724 vs 22,485) - "plenty of room"
• Concentration Math: If index can be flat with 492 stocks down 10% but 8 up 12%, that's unsustainable
• Bitcoin Hype Cycle: Investment banks called it "dog crap" at 2022 bottom, now "we should adopt it" - Gary: "Fear and greed, they'll turn tail again on 50% drop"

Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

 📅 Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Fed Cuts, Yields Spike, Extreme Split Tape

Market Action

• Dow: -74 points (BUT Caterpillar alone = +390 Dow points!)
• NASDAQ: +130 points
• Breadth: DISASTER - 1,342 up vs 3,172 down on NASDAQ (2:1 negative!)
• NYSE Breadth: 1,382 up vs 2,977 down (2:1 negative)
• "Underneath the surface not good"

Fed Drama: Powell cut rates 4% → 3.75%, but 10-year yield ROSE 0.75 (3.98 → 4.058). Gary: "He's a doofus. He's been wrong forever." Warns if Trump takes over Fed and cuts to 2%, 10-year could jump to 5%+ and "then I'll give you a housing problem."

After-Hours Bombs:

• Google: +$17 to $291 (lawsuit win) - "I remember being told Google was left behind in AI. My arse."
• Meta: -$65 (disaster)
• Microsoft: -$16
• Carvana: -$37 (10%)
• ServiceNow: +$39 (after being down $25 during day)

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. AI Semiconductors - Broadcom +$12, NVIDIA +$6.50, KLAC +$43, SanDisk +$29
2. Oils - Up on higher oil prices
3. Select Earnings Winners - Caterpillar, Seagate, Teradyne

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Gary's explicit "avoid" list that ALL worsened today:

• Payroll Stocks - ADP/Paychex NEW YEARLY LOWS (Amazon cutting 30K jobs)
• Private Equity - Blackstone, Apollo, KKR "smashed"; Evercore -$29
• Consumer Staples - Food, beverage, tobacco, household, alcohol
• Restaurants - Bear markets
• Travel - Cruise lines (Royal Caribbean -$13), airlines, hotels
• Retail - "Ton of it" in bearish phase
• Insurance - Bearish phase
• Housing/Housing-Related - Weak
• Exchanges - CME, CBOE weak
• Waste Management - Classic bear market
• Financials - Regional banks, private equity, payments (MasterCard/Visa)
• Down-and-Out Tech (Gary's "Left Screen") - See massive list below

Leading Stocks 🚀

Earnings Winners:

• Caterpillar - +$61 (390 Dow points alone! Earnings down but sales better)
• Seagate - +$43
• Teradyne - +$30
• Broadcom - +$12
• NVIDIA - +$6.50
• Palantir - +$8
• SanDisk - +$29
• KLAC - +$43 ("thousand dollar name")
• Google - +$7 during day, +$17 aftermarket to $291

Lagging Stocks 📉

Earnings Disasters:

• Fair Isaac - -$100
• AutoZone - -$93
• Stride (education) - -54% (171→75 since August high)
• Serve - -44% today (238→70 since February)
• Cavco Industries - -53%
• Verona Systems - -48% (down $31 to $32)
• Garmin - -$29
• Evercore - -$29 (9%), breaking down
• Clean Harbors - -$28
• BlackRock - -$27, breaking down after trying to break out
• ServiceNow - -$25 (but +$39 aftermarket on conference call)

Jobs Carnage:

• ADP - -$18.41 (-6.6%) to NEW YEARLY LOW
• Paychex - -5.36% to NEW YEARLY LOW
• Amazon - Cutting 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs (AI/robotics replacing people)

Gary's "Left Screen" - Down on NASDAQ +130 Day:

• Duolingo -$21, Garmin -$28, S&P Global -$20, Carvana -$8
• Expedia -$5, Autodesk -$14, F5 Networks -$8, Guidewire -$13
• Intuit -$22, SCI -$26, ServiceNow -$26

Consumer Staples Destruction:

• Colgate: 110→75
• Clorox: 171→110
• General Mills: 91 (2023)→46 (almost 50% drop)

Restaurant/Retail Obliteration:

• Kava Group: 172→60 in 12 months
• Lululemon: 423→170

Travel Continuing:

• Royal Caribbean - -$13 today (strongest cruise line completely breaking down)

Financials Breaking:

• Broadridge: 271→220 (blasted)
• PJT Partners: -$13, breaking down
• Goldman Sachs: -$9 (waffled)
• Citigroup: Down a couple (waffled)
• MasterCard/Visa: Acting terribly

After-Hours:

• Meta - -$65 (disaster)
• Microsoft - -$16

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Bought and stopped out of Meta 6 weeks ago (-1%)
• Glad he doesn't own Meta now
• Avoiding ALL the bearish areas listed
• Watching big banks carefully - "normal for big banks to go last. We hope they don't go."
• "If you want to know the problem with Starbucks... price. People are price conscious."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

Gary warns Powell is a "doofus" who caused inflation by printing $9 trillion and is now making it worse by cutting too fast. The 10-year yield spiking 0.75 WHILE the Fed cuts is the bond market screaming "inflation coming back." If Trump takes over the Fed and cuts rates to 2%, Gary expects 10-year yields to jump to 5%+ which would crash housing. The split tape is "as split as split can go" with breadth 2:1 negative despite NASDAQ +130. "Underneath the surface not good."

Key Observations 💡

• Amazon Job Cuts: 30,000 of 350,000 corporate jobs = 6-8 billion savings from AI/robotics
• Make Yourself Indispensable: Gary's urgent advice as payroll stocks hit new lows
• Extreme Split Tape: "A crapload of stocks heading south on I-95 and at the same time a crapload heading north"
• Bond Market Rebelling: Fed cuts but yields spike - free market saying "inflation's coming back"
• Breadth Disaster: 2:1 negative on both NASDAQ and NYSE despite indices up
• Google Vindication: "I was told Google was left behind in AI. My arse." Up $17 aftermarket
• Meta Implosion: Down $65 aftermarket - Zuckerberg down billions
• Apple/Amazon Tomorrow: Big earnings after close Thursday

IS NVIDIA GOING TO OWN THE WORLD? - 20+ Deals

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

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📅 Tuesday, October 28, 2025

"IS NVIDIA GOING TO OWN THE WORLD?" - 20+ Deals, Terrible Breadth

Market Action

• NASDAQ: +190 points
• NASDAQ 100: +190 points
• Dow: +161 points
• Breadth: TERRIBLE - 1,782 up vs 2,709 down on NASDAQ
• Sold off into the close

NVIDIA Dominance Day: NVIDIA held global tech conference in D.C., announced 20+ major partnerships including Eli Lilly AI supercomputers, J&J robotics, Palantir, CrowdStrike, ServiceNow, Oracle DOE supercomputer, Nokia $1B investment, and meeting with President Trump tomorrow. Stock +$10 to over $200.

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. AI Semiconductors - Specifically AI-related names (most other semis down)
2. Data Storage - Still working but energy infrastructure stocks topping out
3. Select Big Tech - Top 7 = 60% of NASDAQ 100

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Gary's "Middle Screen" breakdown of 600 stocks shows bearish phases across:

• Insurance - "Worsening every day"
• Cruise Lines - Bearish phase
• Waste Management - "Being wasted right now"
• Hotels - Bearish phase
• Airlines - Bearish phase
• Retail/Apparel - "Ton in bearish phase"
• Auto Dealers - Bearish phase
• Food/Beverage/Tobacco/Household Products/Alcohol - Bearish phase
• Restaurants - "In bear market for a long while"
• Payroll Stocks (ADP, Paychex) - Bear markets
• Transports - Bearish
• Housing - Bearish
• Big Biotech - Bearish (except Regeneron today)
• Managed Care - "Big bear market"
• Exchanges (CME, CBOE) - Weak

Leading Stocks 🚀

• NVIDIA - +$10 to $200+ (20+ partnership announcements at GTC)
• Regeneron - +$64 to $654 (still down 40% from Aug '24 high of $1,211)
• Wayfair - +$20 on great earnings growth

Lagging Stocks 📉

• Zebra Tech - -$36 on earnings
• Commvault - -$28 to $145 on earnings
• Abercrombie & Fitch - $165 → $74 in 10 months
• Cava Group - $172 (Nov '24) → $62 now
• United Rentals - "Gagging"
• Lululemon - "Absolutely destroyed"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Avoiding ALL bearish areas listed above
• Not stating buys, but clearly positioned in AI/semis/Big Tech
• Watching earnings reactions closely this monster week
• "You better be listening to us on what to avoid. More now. More now."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

"We're not saying the same thing is going to happen. We're just telling you that some of those characteristics of narrowness in the market are at hand. They're not looking to show. They're here." Gary explicitly warns that 1999-style concentration is present - institutions sold everything and bought select stocks that got "over-owned, over-loved, over-priced" before the cycle ended. "If it stays narrow and the good stuff tops out, you'll be hearing from us."

Key Observations 💡

• NVIDIA = The Market: "Is NVIDIA going to be involved with every S&P 500 company?" 20+ announcements in one day
• 600-Stock Breakdown: Gary's middle screen shows massive swaths of market in bearish phases while indices up
• Breadth Disaster: "Advanced declines on NASDAQ were worse and worse throughout the whole day" - 1,782 up vs 2,709 down
• Value Isn't Happening: "If you had 10-20 best stocks in restaurants, insurance, transports, retail, autos - you're getting smoked"
• Earnings Wild Card: "Good will be bad, bad will be good" - Regeneron destroyed for months, gaps up $64 today
• Jay Powell Tomorrow: Fed Chair speaking Wednesday

THE 1999 ENDGAME WARNING

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 27, 2025 (Monday)

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📅 MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2025 - THE 1999 ENDGAME WARNING

Market Action - Big Tech Dominates Despite Terrible Breadth

• NASDAQ: +432 (gapped up)
• NASDAQ 100: +463
• Advance/Declines: 24 up, 20 down (terrible!)
• S&P: Broke out Friday but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA

Gary: "How do you go up that much? Meta +$12, Microsoft +$8, Tesla +$18, NVIDIA +$5.50, Google +$9."

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🚨 GARY'S EXPLICIT 1999 COMPARISON

The Historical Pattern - Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000

NASDAQ: 2,966 → 5,132 (65% gain in 4.5 months) S&P 500: 1,363 → 1,527 (only 12% gain!) DOW: 10,729 → 9,928 (DOWN 7-8%!)

Gary: "It became the most one-note market I really have ever seen. Housing stocks went down to one times earnings."

Why It Happened - Institutional Fear

Portfolio managers knew tech valuations were "ridiculous" but executives pressured them: "How the hell do you own these Dow stocks? Why don't you own the hot stuff?"

Result: "They want to keep their jobs. So sell toll brothers and buy pets.com."

Cisco Prediction: Barron's writer said Cisco would drop 80%, everyone laughed. He was 100% right.

Intel Labor Day 2000: Day after Labor Day got downgraded. "That's when all hell broke loose."

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⚠️ CURRENT MARKET - "WE'RE GETTING THERE"

Gary's Assessment:

"We're not even close to the one-note type market we saw from 99-2000. No, we're not. We're getting there. We're moving towards it."

Current Warning Signs:

• S&P breaks out but only 53% of stocks above 50-day MA
• NASDAQ +432 but advance/declines 24 up, 20 down
• Seven stocks = 60%+ of NASDAQ 100 driving entire market
• "My left screen of technology stocks that are weaker can't even budge and more are breaking down"

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🟢 LEADING SECTORS

The Big 7 + Semiconductors

• Meta: +$12 | Microsoft: +$8 | Tesla: +$18 | NVIDIA: +$5.50 | Google: +$9 | Amazon: reports this week
• Qualcomm: +$18 (up $34 at highs) on AI chip announcement
• Semiconductor equipment makers, data storage, data centers

Energy for AI

GEV and VST "on the weak side"

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🔴 LAGGING SECTORS - BEAR MARKETS EVERYWHERE

Gary's List: Restaurants, housing/housing-related, consumer staples (most), insurance, travel-related, payroll stocks (ADP/Paychex), auto dealers, truckers, regional banks, lenders, retail (mostly)

Gary: "Fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at, at this juncture."

Rare Earth Stocks - 70% CRASH

"Down 70% in the last 10 business days. We hope you listen to us. Everything's great with China now. There's no 100% tariff. We told you that."

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🚀 LEADING STOCKS

The Big 7

Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, NVIDIA, Google dominating

Qualcomm

+$18 on AI chip news

Retail Bright Spots

Blue Barn, Ross Stores at new yearly highs

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📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, most retail, rare earth stocks (-70% in 10 days)

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💰 GARY'S MAJOR STRATEGY SHIFT - TARIFF THREATS

New Stance on Tariff Announcements:

"On that day [China tariff threat], we sold a little, and I ain't ever sell them again. They ain't doing it, they're full of crap."

"There's no way into an election year they're doing 100% tariff on China because that will be their doom. Recession, contraction, market drop."

New Strategy:

"So the next bad day, when they announce a big tariff, I may buy, I just may buy blindly."

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🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary delivered his most explicit 1999 warning yet, walking through the exact pattern: NASDAQ up 65% (Oct 29, 1999 to March 10, 2000) while Dow fell 7-8%. Current market is "getting there, moving towards it" with terrible breadth (24 up, 20 down despite +432), only 53% of S&P above 50-day MA, and Big 7 comprising 60%+ of NASDAQ 100. He detailed how institutional fear forced portfolio managers to buy overvalued tech to keep their jobs despite knowing it would crash. CapEx promises now far exceed 1999 levels. Gary warns "you best keep listening because if this becomes more 1999-ish, it shall be an endgame." However, he's now convinced tariff threats are bluffs in election year and may buy blindly next time.

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💡 KEY OBSERVATIONS

On AI CapEx: "With the numbers being bandied about by these AI-type names on CapEx, I still remember 99, it was nothing in 99 compared to what the promises are these days. Boy, they better come out with these numbers because if they don't, uh-oh."

On Too Many AI Chip Makers: "You now have Qualcomm and Alibaba and Baidu and Nvidia and AMD. How many companies now are going to make AI chips?"

Full Disclosure: "We are not saying 1999 is going to happen. We are not saying we're going into an 80% drop. We're just telling you it's becoming more and more one note. And we're just telling you there's fewer and fewer areas I even have to look at."

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📅 THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS

Big Tech Week: Google (Tuesday), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta - all the Big 7 reporting

BANK REGULATIONS RELAXED, BULLS REJOICE

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 24, 2025 (Friday)

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📅 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2025 - BANK REGULATIONS RELAXED, BULLS REJOICE

Market Action - Goldman Drives Dow

• Dow: Up significant (Goldman +$33 = 215 Dow points!)
• NASDAQ: Up
• S&P: Up
• Semiconductors: Strong

The Big Story: Administration announced relaxing banking regulations and capital requirements

💰 GOLDMAN SACHS = 215 DOW POINTS

Gary's Math Lesson:

• Goldman up $33 today = 4.4% = 215 Dow points
• If Coca-Cola (at ~$70) went up same 4.4% = only 20 Dow points
• Why? "Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow"
• Verizon at $39 → Zero would = 260 Dow points
• Goldman at $780 → Zero would = 5,000 Dow points

Gary: "You got to be very careful when we measure the Dow. We recognize that it's stupid. How do you have a Verizon at $39 and Goldman Sachs at $780? Goldman Sachs is 20 times more important to the Dow points than a Verizon."

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🏦 BANKS RALLY ON REGULATION NEWS

The Announcement

Administration relaxing:

• Banking regulations
• Capital requirements

Bank Reactions

Goldman Sachs: +$33 (4.4%) - 215 Dow points

JP Morgan: +$5.90 (2%) - Still significant

Morgan Stanley: Not bad

Wells Fargo: Not bad

Bank of America & Citigroup: "Kind of, sort of"

Regional Banks: "A little bit better too" but have been weak

Gary's Take: "Didn't have really good reactions in JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs [on earnings], but the reactions in others better."

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🚨 GARY'S FRUSTRATION - GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE

Argentine Beef Deal - "Make Argentina Great"

Representative Mark Alford (R-Missouri) publicly broke with Trump:

• Administration allowing 4x current amount of Argentine beef imports
• At reduced tariffs
• Alford: This "betrays American ranchers"

Gary's Reaction:

"All of a sudden, MAGA is make Argentina great. And that's not a reach on just this subject. The reason the president is doing this is because Argentina's got some problems. And he loves this guy, Millet, who runs Argentina. But what does that do? It hurts the ranchers here. It undercuts them completely."

"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef?"

Government Taking Crypto Mining Positions

Latest announcement about government getting involved in crypto mining

Gary: "Don't worry that his family is net-deep involved with the mining of crypto."

Government Taking Quantum Positions

"Announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies."

Gary's Core Message:

"We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites. If this was a lefty, you'd be pissed off that government is getting their hands in all kinds of private industry and names and some other names of no-sales."

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💥 JAY POWELL REPRINTING MONEY

The Fed Announcement

Fed will STOP letting bonds roll off balance sheet

• Had been reducing from $9 trillion down to ~$7 trillion (fake money)
• NOW: Will start buying bonds again = Reprinting money

Gary's Explanation:

"They printed to $9 trillion. Took that conjured up money, not real money, and bought up the whole frickin' bond market, taking the 10-year yield down to a half percent. Bought bonds with fake money. Which created the 3% mortgage, which created all the distortions in housing."

"They've been doing the right thing by letting it run off. So in other words, oh, here's today. They're not going to let it roll off anymore, which means he's going to take that money, fake money, conjured up money, and reprint."

Market Reaction to Fed News

• 10-year yield dropped
• Market rallied (easier money = good for Wall Street)
• Housing, travel, financials did better

Gary's Warning:

"The market's at or near the highs and he's reprinting money, which is going to create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even that worse when all's said and done."

"Jay Powell, again, another person with how did you get this type of power, is now going to stop the roll-off because he says blah, blah, blah, blah, blah is making him do it."

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🟢 LEADING SECTORS

Banks - Regulation Relief

• Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, BofA, Citi all up
• Regional banks better (but still weak overall)

Rate-Sensitive Sectors (Fed Reprinting)

• Housing: Better with 10-year yield down
• Travel: Better
• Financials: Generally better

Semiconductors

• Continuing strength

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🔴 LAGGING SECTORS

Agriculture/Ranching

• Argentine beef deal undercuts US ranchers
• Tariff hypocrisy

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🚀 LEADING STOCKS

Goldman Sachs

+$33 = 215 Dow points (drove the Dow)

JP Morgan

+$5.90

Other Big Banks

Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo up on regulation news

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📉 LAGGING STOCKS

Not specifically mentioned this show - focus was on bank rally and Fed policy

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💰 GARY'S CURRENT POSITIONING

Watching: Government interference increasing across multiple fronts

Concerned About:

1. $2.5 trillion deficit spending
2. Fed reprinting money (creating bigger bubbles)
3. Government positions in private companies
4. Tariff inconsistencies (Argentina example)
5. Family conflicts of interest (crypto)

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🎯 CRASH/CORRECTION OUTLOOK

Gary is increasingly alarmed that Fed reprinting money at market highs will "create more bubbles, which means the crash is going to be even worse when all's said and done." The combination of $2.5 trillion deficits, Fed balance sheet expansion after briefly contracting, and government taking positions in private companies (crypto mining, quantum, no-sales stocks) while family members benefit creates a dangerous setup. The banking regulation relief is positive short-term but doesn't address the structural issues. Gary sees Jay Powell as someone who "caused the inflation" with original $9 trillion printing, created "3% mortgages and distortions in housing," and now is reprinting at market highs which historically ends badly.

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💡 GARY'S KEY FRUSTRATIONS

On Government Overreach

"There's not a day that goes by because I'm not done. Today, the latest. We're not even sure, but announcement on taking positions in quantum, no-sales companies. So just letting you know. We hope it works out. We are rooting for them. But all you supposed conservative Republicans that like this, you're a bunch of hypocrites."

On Tariff Hypocrisy

"If the president says tariffs are the greatest thing, why is he cutting the tariffs on Argentine beef? That's because he wants more to come in here. That means there'll be less to pay here for that, which screws the farmers here."

On Fed Printing

"Taking over. Where did all these people get to the point where somebody can print the $9 trillion, where a government can run $2 trillion deficits, $1.2 trillion to interest."

On Healthcare (Obamacare)

"Obamacare premiums will be rising an average of 30% just next year. Barack Obama, who got the Nobel Peace Prize just as he got into the White House, was treated with kid gloves and just another great liar from the White House."

"If it was the Affordable Care Act, why do you need subsidies? Because they lied. They're liars."

On NYC Mayor Race

Hakeem Jeffries endorsing candidate Gary calls "a racist, Jew-hating, anti-Semitic, Israel-hating dolt" who "thinks he's smart enough to run supermarkets in New York City, and control prices of housing there, and thinks buses should be free."

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📊 THE BIG PICTURE

Gary's Core Message: "So there's a lot of jello moving on the plate. Obamacare premiums next year, 30% higher. We hope it works out."

Federal Register Pages (Government Regulations):

• 2024: 107,262 pages
• Gary: "Proposed and final rules, public notices, executive orders, proclamations. You think we're overly regulated? Our forefathers are turning over the grave."

US Debt: $38 trillion