"BUYERS GOT THE UPPER HAND" - No-Sales Froth Wakes Up After 50% Crashes

 

📅 Wednesday, December 4, 2025

"BUYERS GOT THE UPPER HAND" - No-Sales Froth Wakes Up After 50% Crashes

Market Action

• Dow: Down 31
• S&P: Flat
• NASDAQ: Up 50 (ramped into close, closed above 50-day)
• NASDAQ 100: Down 25
• "A hell of a lot of Jell-O moving on the plate"

Gary's Assessment: "The indices did not do much today. But a hell of a lot of Jell-O moving on the plate and we hope you are listening."

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. No-Sales Froth - WOKE UP LIKE A PINBALL MACHINE 🚨
   • Nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones, space
   • Many up 15-25% today
   • Gary: "After this crash, there is a good chance, a decent chance that they put in a bottom today"
2. Big Banks - Continuing breakouts from yesterday
   • JPMorgan "even woke up" (was lagging)
   • Bank of New York, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo
   • "Either at new highs or very close"
3. Regional Banks - "Actually have a better bid now"
4. Data Centers/Storage - "Kind of woke up today"
   • Data storage, data center types
   • Electronics, electronic contractors
   • Energy for data centers
   • Construction for data centers
   • "Been in corrective mode for weeks and weeks"
5. Small Caps & Mid Caps - "Near old highs again"
   • Russell 2000 and S&P 400
   • "Couple Thursdays ago looked like south end of northbound jackass, just V-shaped up"

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Nothing specific - indices flat/slightly down

Leading Stocks 🚀

No-Sales Companies - MASSIVE BOUNCES:

Nuclear (The Poster Child):

• OKLO (Gary doesn't name it but describes it): 194 → 79 (5 weeks), up 15% today to $111
  • At highs: $25 billion market cap (no sales)
  • Today close: $17 billion market cap
  • Gary: "This is what we mean by waking up"

Quantum:

• One name: 58 → 22, up 15% today
• Another: 84 → 40, up 12.5% today ($21 billion market cap, no sales)
• Another: 47 → 20, up 14% today ($10 billion market cap, "very little sales")

Rare Earth:

• One name: 44 → 12, up 24-25% today to $17.50 ($1.4 billion market cap, no sales)
  • Why? Administration announced "may be taking positions in these rare earth"

Data Center/Storage Stocks:

• LITE (Lumentum) - NEW HIGH today (Gary doesn't own it: "Unfortunately")
• SanDisk - Up $18 (went 180→284→180 in 3 weeks, now bouncing)
• CLS - Up $14
• Celestica (CLS) - Up $14
• FN - Up $24
• HAP - Up $21
• BE - Up $15
• GEV, CEG - "Coming around again" (energy/power for data centers)

Big Banks:

• JPMorgan - Woke up (was lagging)
• All others continuing strength from yesterday

Lagging Stocks 📉

MicroStrategy (MSTR) - THE DISASTER:

• Raised $1.44 billion via stock sale to meet debt interest and dividend payments
• Stock: 543 (all-time high) → 457 (July) → 155 (4 days ago) → 171 → 186 (today)
• Down 66% from highs
• Gary: "A stock sale to meet dividends and debt interest payments. Ladies and gentlemen, that crap reminds me of a lot of 99-2000."
• Bought 130,000 Bitcoin past two weeks
• Now own 650,000 Bitcoin (~$56B value)
• Market cap below Bitcoin holdings - "That's how much the market thinks of them and their leverage"
• Gary: "They should be in prayer mode at this juncture because the last bear market of Bitcoin dropped at 75%. I don't think this company's lasting if that occurs."
• CEO still going on TV "acting like everything is just great"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Doesn't own LITE (wishes he did after it hit new high)
• Happy about big banks
• Watching no-sales bounce carefully

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

NO-SALES FROTH - GARY'S CRITICAL WARNING:

"After all, here's a stock that went from 44 down to about 12. Has no sales, no nothing. And they bought it up today at a $1.4 billion market cap. Are lessons not learned?"

Gary's Proviso (Repeated Multiple Times): "If nothing changes, and these companies still have no sales or very little sales and lose a ton of money, when the music stops and it looks like it may be starting again, they're all going back to where they came from."

"We warned you all the way up. And they all crashed. We didn't know when they would crash. We didn't know which would crash most. But they all crashed. And how do I define a crash? Well, this one with the $25 billion market cap went from $194 down to $79 in 5 weeks and change."

Why People Are Buying Again: "I think what you have is a lot of traders involved. Fast money retail investors. And these things, they move so strong. Think about this. You could have bought one of these stocks yesterday. You have 25% today."

"I think what people see is, wow, look at the moves they had in the past. If this thing can happen again, and they're right. Because if that happens again..." [they can make money]

Gary's Honesty: "I have no clue if it lasts a day, week, month, year. I have no clue whether they skyrocket again or croak tomorrow."

"I can tell you is if nothing changes, there will be that final eventuality which doesn't look like it's here yet."

Why Gary Felt Responsible to Report: "I felt it incumbent upon myself to let you know they woke up that froth today. And just be careful."

"Since we have been reporting this to you all the way up and down, we kept on it and just look like today."

Government Involvement Again: "Unfortunately again, and we're not thrilled by this, the administration may be taking a position in them and blah, blah, blah. The problem is a lot of them have no freaking sales. And if you take a position in a company with no sales, they're going to continue to have no sales."

Market Protection: "I can promise you the market is not going to crash when you have these names [big banks] at new highs or close. Just letting you know."

Small Caps: "A couple of Thursdays ago, they looked like the south end of a northbound jackass and they just V-shaped up with a better market. If they break out to new highs, we will alert you."

Key Observations 💡

The October Crash:

• Mid-October: Nuclear, quantum, rare earth, drones, space all crashed 50%+
• Gary warned but didn't predict timing
• Now: "It looks like today, buyers finally got the upper hand after they crashed these things out"
• "I'm pretty good at telling when something is sold out and when buyers have the upper hand"

Data Center Stocks:

• "Been in corrective mode for weeks and weeks and weeks and trading some of them very wide and very loose"
• SanDisk: 180→284→180 in 3 weeks (now bouncing)
• "All of them have either got back above 50-day moving average or held it on the way down"
• LITE new high: "I got news. That's good news. We'll see if it continues."

Warren Buffett Parallel: "There's some people in my industry that love making fun of others, look like they applaud when people lose money. Heck, I still remember in 99, they were making fun of Warren Buffett. I still remember that. Now they're making fun of this guy, the short-seller Michael Burry. They're making fun of him. I got a rule. Don't make fun of billionaires. They obviously did something right."

Costco Sues Trump: "Costco is joining other companies suing the Trump administration over tariffs. They want a full refund should the Supreme Court rule the sweeping duties illegal."

Tariff Truth: "The administration lied to all of you about who pays the tariffs. It's our companies and if the Supreme Court says it's illegal, it looks like some companies are suing."

"Like when he says, well, we're going to use the tax and get rid of the income tax. So what he's saying is the tariffs are a tax. And how many times have they told us the tariffs aren't a tax?"

"Besson was out yesterday saying the tariffs aren't a tax by any other name. And they wonder why they may lose next year's election."

"If I had his ear, I would just say, listen, just tell the truth. It's okay."

Job Market Reality:

• ADP and Paychecks "in brutal bear market"
• "Job market remains weak"
• Manufacturing shrinking
• Layoffs highest since pandemic: 1.1 million this year
• Not creating jobs right now

GDP vs Jobs Paradox: "I'm being asked, how do we have a GDP which is gonna come out soon in the threes when layoffs are at 1.1 million this year and the job market, it's not creating jobs right now. How can that be? The answer is, consumer loves spending. But go look at the numbers on credit cards and buy now, pay later."

"We are really big believers if you have a lasting, rough job market, eventually it's gotta hit. Eventually it's gotta hit."

Tariffs Causing Layoffs: "Tariffs were cited as a driver of a lot of these cuts. Just remember what a tariff is. It is an expense to companies and companies are always gonna act in their best interest. And if they're paying too much in expenses because of tariffs, taxes, they may lop off a few people."

Trump's Golf Courses: "You know what we love about Trump? We tell you what we love about Trump. You know what we don't love about Trump? We tell you that too. And by the way, we really love his golf courses. Top three I've ever played is Scotland, Trump. Top three. I played Turnberry, but he bought that, but he built the one in Northern Scotland."

Trump Tariff/Income Tax Idea: "Yesterday, we discussed how he said he's going to use tariffs and get rid of the income tax. And what did we tell you? Impossible. And I don't know why he even brings it up. There's no chance. You're not going to tax three trillion bucks out of the economy. No, you're not."

"If I had his ear, I can help him out big time. But of course, I don't have his ear. And he probably, even if I told him, wouldn't give a crap what I had to say."

Beyond Meat Vindication: "Like when we told you Beyond Meat would not last in the way, shape or form they were when it first started out. Nobody's eating plants. We're very few. Again, sometimes it's just one plus one equals two."

MicroStrategy Math:

• 650,000 Bitcoin worth ~$56B
• Market cap below $56B
• Selling stock to pay debt interest and dividends
• Gary: "I got news for you. They should be in prayer mode."
• Last Bitcoin bear: dropped 75%
• Gary: "I don't think this company's lasting if that occurs."

Radio Station Changes:

• Phoenix station sold, no longer on there
• Portland station (KBNP) shut down
• "This is what happens in the media world. We keep on chugging along."

Email Rule: "If you'd like to email me, just be nice, respectful. Shouldn't be hard, right? As long as you don't like Hamas, we're good. As long as you don't attack synagogues, we're good. As long as you're not racist, we're good. We like nice people here."

"OF COURSE IT'S A BUBBLE" - Gary's Comprehensive Bubble Analysis + Big Banks Breaking Out

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

---

📅 Tuesday, December 3, 2025

"OF COURSE IT'S A BUBBLE" - Gary's Comprehensive Bubble Analysis + Big Banks Breaking Out

Market Action

• Dow: Up 408
• S&P: Up 20 (tech waning)
• NASDAQ: Up 40
• NASDAQ 100: Up 50
• Russell 2000: Strong (broad market)
• SOX (Semis): Up 131
• Advance/Decline: 3:1 to the better on both indices
• New highs picked up - good to see

Gary's Key Statement: "Big banks breaking out, semiconductors strong with a few breaking out, ain't nothing bad gonna happen overall, I can promise you that. There'll be weakness, there'll be bear markets, there'll be bearish names, there'll be bearish sectors, but an overall market, hell no."

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Big Banks - BREAKING OUT TODAY!
   • Morgan Stanley: New high
   • Citigroup: New high
   • Goldman Sachs: Getting close
   • Bank of New York: Getting close
   • Bank of America: Getting close
   • Wells Fargo: Right there
   • JP Morgan: Weakest of bunch
2. Regional Banks - Good day
3. Semiconductors - Up 131, another good day, some breaking out
4. Housing-Related - Strong (10-year yield dropped to 4.057)
5. Transports - Broke above range today
   • IYT broke above 73.70 (hit 6 times since January, finally broke)
   • Rails, truckers, airlines
   • Gary: "As we had told you for a long time, avoid, not anymore"
6. Oils - Very good day
   • OIH (oil services) broke above range at 298
   • XOP (exploration/production) needs to get above 139
   • XLE (big oil) needs to get above 93, currently 91.83
7. Steel, Metals, Mining - Strong (copper, aluminum)
8. Retail - Good day
   • American Eagle Outfitters: Up $3, new yearly high
   • Boot Barn: Getting close
   • Capri: New highs
   • Dollar Tree: Decent reaction to earnings
   • Five Below: Up in aftermarket on earnings
   • Ralph Lauren, Ross Stores, Urban Outfitters: Recent good reactions
9. Private Equity - Woke up (Blackstone, BlackRock better)

Lagging Sectors 🔴

1. Technology - Waning, only up 40-50 points
2. Microsoft - Down $11 today (AI software growth targets lowered)

Leading Stocks 🚀

Big Bank Breakouts:

• Morgan Stanley - New high
• Citigroup - New high
• Goldman Sachs - Getting close to breakout
• Bank of New York - Getting close
• Bank of America - Getting close
• Wells Fargo - Right there

Retail:

• American Eagle Outfitters - Up $3, new yearly high
• Capri - New highs
• Dollar Tree - Decent earnings reaction
• Five Below - Up in aftermarket on earnings

Transports:

• IYT - Broke above 73.70 resistance (6 attempts since January)

Oils:

• OIH - Broke above range at 298

Lagging Stocks 📉

After-Hours Mover:

• Salesforce.com - Up $12.50 to $251 on earnings
  • But topped at $369 in December 2024
  • Trading at August 2020 levels (over 5 years no gain)
  • Earnings still going up but "much slower, much, much slower"

Microsoft:

• Down $11 today
• "The Information" reported: Lowering AI software growth targets
• Originally titled "lowering software sales quotas," later changed

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Watching big banks closely (breaking out)
• Watching transports (broke out)
• Happy about semis staying strong

🫧 COMPREHENSIVE BUBBLE ANALYSIS 🫧

Gary's Definitive Answer on AI: "Gary, what do you think? Well, we're very careful with our words here. So I never guarantee, I never promise, but I state belief, and my answer is, of course it's a bubble, of course it is. But on whom and where and how long is another story."

BUT THE KEY CAVEAT: "Here's the key on bubbles. They can last a long time, and you can miss a hell of a lot of gains if you sell too soon. I think all that you're seeing lasts a good long while from here. I think it can last another year, who knows?"

How to Know When It's Over: "Do you know how we'll know if the end is near? The stocks will top out, break down, and not go back. Simple as that."

Bubbles Already Popped (First Time):

1. Quantum computers - 50-70% drops
2. Drones - 50-70% drops
3. Robo-taxis - 50-70% drops
4. Space - 50-70% drops
5. Nuclear - 50-70% drops
6. Rare earth - 50-70% drops (government interference caused it)
7. Trump coin - Down 95% (insiders made billions, massive selling)
8. Melania coin - Down in the 90s
9. NFTs - From years ago

Gary: "Notice the words, the first time. They certainly can ram them again because they have help. Unfortunately help from this administration that is now interfering in industry like we have never seen, taking position in companies."

AI Bubble Evidence:

1. Oracle Example:

• Announced "gargantuan numbers"
• Stock went 345 → 197 → 207
• "Massive amounts of debt being foisted upon the public to pay for all this. But you know what you're paying for? Projections."

2. Insane Projections: "When I hear somebody come out and say, $100 billion by 2030, well, I say, I don't know what I'm eating for dinner tonight."

"The number one bubble is, they're projections. They don't know, they really don't know."

3. OpenAI CEO Response: "The CEO of OpenAI was asked a simple question. How are you supposed to commit to $1.2 trillion in whatever when you have $10 billion? And the guy got mad and said, well, just go sell your stock. It was asked by an investor. That worries the hell out of me."

4. Circular Financing: "Oh, I'm gonna invest $100 million in you, just buy my stuff. For me, it just reminds me of everything I've seen in the past that blows up to a certain extent."

5. Microsoft Today: "Microsoft dropped $11. Microsoft is lowering AI software growth targets. Bubbles are also priced, not just for perfection, for unbelievable perfection. So any cheek of the arm, so we'll see."

6. Valuations: "Valuations are up there in the trees. I'm pretty sure you're paying $2 for a lot of $1 bills right now in some names, and I don't know which ones yet."

7. Nobody Will Make Money: "There's been talk of $100 billion, $50 billion. Nobody invests $100 billion dollars if they don't think they're gonna get back $100 more. I see no way that anybody's gonna make that kind of money off of these investments."

Gary's Prediction:

"I think in a few years, we're gonna look back and say, holy crap, that's my take."

What Gary DOESN'T Think:

• "Do I think there's a pets.com? There's probably one or two in there."
• "Do I think NVIDIA's gonna be here forever? Hell yeah."
• "Oracle, hell yeah."
• "These companies aren't going anywhere."
• "But I do believe a lot of it is being based on numbers that are promised going out in a few years. They don't know, but we're supposed to believe them. Why? Because they're very successful people. They're very wealthy people. They've done magnificent things. But I repeat, the projections are insane."

AI Benefits (Gary Acknowledges):

• "Drug companies to get drugs out 70% quicker than normal"
• "They'll be able to tell cancer way before they used to"
• "If they could do better on screening, I'd love that. My family's been touched by cancer."
• "But then it gets back to return on investment."

Other Bubbles Gary Sees:

Baseball/Basketball Cards:

• Kevin O'Leary showed cards selling for $6 million
• Gary asked: "Do you ever worry that the bubble's gonna pop?"
• They said no bubble
• Gary: "But you just said that was worth $1 million just two years ago, it's now $6 million"
• "It's a baseball card"

High-Priced Watches:

• "Went insane to the upside and they're getting crushed"

Sneakers:

• "There's been a gargantuan bull market in sneakers"

Pokemon Cards:

• Gary has one he thinks is worth $10K

Art:

• "I can't believe what some of the art's going for"
• Guy sold invisible sculpture for $15K ("There was nothing there")
• Guy sold banana on wall for "craploads"

SPACs/Electric Vehicles:

• "When all the SPACs a few years back announced they were doing electric vehicles, we laughed at them"
• "One of them went to jail, and of course the president just pardoned them"
• "A bunch of them have shut down because it's not easy for car companies"

Gary's Investment Wisdom:

"Just always think about, am I paying $2 for a $1 bill? Always think of that and give yourself a good, honest answer."

Book Recommendation: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds - It's a big book, but you should go read it if you have an interest."

• Study tulip bulbs
• Study past bubbles

Recent Example:

Tesla: Up $17 today Why? "Administration, gonna talk about robotics now. And of course, Tesla is a leader in those robots."

The Google Switch:

"Just in the past six months, Google was supposed to be crap, remember that? And now Google's the leader. They call it Alphabet. I don't know why they changed the name."

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

NO CHANCE OF BEAR MARKET: "If the semiconductors and financials are doing fine, there is no chance of bear markets. Except for individual areas."

"Big banks breaking out, semiconductor strong with a few breaking out, ain't nothing bad gonna happen overall, I can promise you that. There'll be weakness, there'll be bear markets, there'll be bearish names, there'll be bearish sectors, but an overall market, hell no."

Index Targets: All indices need to break above recent highs:

• S&P: High 6,920, currently 6,849 (needs 71 points)
• Dow: High 48,431, currently 47,882 (needs 549 points)
• NASDAQ: High 24,020, currently 23,454 (needs 566 points - "needs a little more work")
• NASDAQ 100: High 26,182, currently 25,606 (needs 576 points)

What Gary Likes: "I like the fact that the broad market, and I like the fact that the big banks, and I like the fact that some of the worst names are getting strong."

Key Observations 💡

Easy Money Coming:

• "Dollar is acting like the south end of a northbound jackass"
• Why? "We're getting easy money Trump going forward"
• Powell stopped QT, "so he's easing"
• "Looks like he's lowering rates next week"
• Kevin Hassett coming in: "You might as well put two strings on his shoulders because Trump's gonna run him to convince everybody at the Fed, we're gonna lower rates, or you're fired"

Economic Reality:

• "The job market sucks"
• "They're gonna come out with a strong GDP number, but to take out government spending ain't so strong"
• "Our government is spending four times as much as they used to 25 years ago. And for what? You getting anything out of it? They're sure taking out a lot from you."

Bitcoin Status:

• Up today
• "We thought maybe an island reversal, maybe the bear's over, I don't know"
• "To us, it's just a bounce in a bearish market"

Rare Earth Government Involvement: "Unfortunately, they caused the big quick bubble in the rare earth stocks that went straight up, straight down, 50, 60, 70% drops. This is not a rip on them. I think they mean well, do their best, but they started promoting no sales rare earth stocks. One of them announced, oh, we have talked to the president and we're cutting deals that never came to fruition. I'm surprised there hasn't been lawsuits."

Robo-Taxis Logic: "We know just by adding one plus one to get two, there's no 50 companies that are gonna do robo-taxis, yet there's so many out there."

Salesforce Reality:

• Trading at August 2020 levels (over 5 years no gain)
• "It's done that while earnings have still been going up, but much slower, much, much slower"

Dollar Weakness: "This Trump and his buddies want a weaker dollar, which is not good news overall, but does help our multinationals"

Winston Update: "My doggy, Winston, my cancer doggy. Three years ago, terminal cancer, they said, and he's doing great."

Politics: "I had one jackass email me and call me almost every name in the book because I'm too nice to Trump. I have another one saying I'm too mean to Trump. Interesting, huh? You get two different things from two different people because they're politics."

DR. BOYCE WATKINS: AI REVOLUTION POSITIONING

📊 DECEMBER 3, 2025 - DR. BOYCE WATKINS: AI REVOLUTION POSITIONING

"MR. GOOGLE, MR. MICROSOFT" - LONG-TERM AI PLAY

Current Holdings & Strategy

Dr. Watkins' Core AI Positions:

• Google (Alphabet): Loading up for long haul
• Microsoft: Loading up for long haul
• Strategy: Long-term hold on AI leaders

Boyce: "I'm Mr. Google right now. I'm Mr. Google, Mr. Microsoft. I've been loading up on those two stocks for the long haul. So far, so good. We'll see if I'm right long term."

What He's AVOIDING

OpenAI Stock: Would NOT buy if publicly available

• Company has "a lot of problems"
• Structural concerns with business model
• Boyce: "I would not buy OpenAI stock if it was publicly available"

---

💡 BOYCE'S INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY (Dec 3)

Core Themes

1. Ownership vs. Being Owned: "If you do not own assets in America, then you will become somebody else's asset"
2. Reciprocity Economics: Build wealth through two-way economic relationships
3. Digital Black Wall Street: New economic ecosystem being built digitally
4. Generational Wealth Focus: Financial education for children (preschool through high school)

Key Economic Principles

• Asset Ownership Critical: Either own assets or become an asset to others
• Producer vs. Consumer: Must sell into economy, not just consume
• Long-term AI Bet: Established tech giants (Google, Microsoft) over speculative plays
• Reciprocity: Economic strength comes from give-and-take relationships

Market Context

• Strong appetite for Black economics and wealth-building
• Digital transformation of wealth creation
• AI revolution favoring established players with infrastructure

---

🎯 BOYCE'S CURRENT POSITIONING (Dec 3)

LONG:

• Google/Alphabet (accumulating)
• Microsoft (accumulating)

AVOID:

• OpenAI (structural problems)
• Speculation over fundamentals

Philosophy:

• Long-term hold strategy
• Established AI infrastructure plays
• Focus on companies with proven business models

"BACK ABOVE THE 50-DAY" - But Powell Stops QT, Inflation Warnings

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

---

📅 Monday, December 2, 2025

"BACK ABOVE THE 50-DAY" - But Powell Stops QT, Inflation Warnings

Market Action

• ALL MAJOR INDICES BACK ABOVE 50-DAY MA: Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, SOX, Russell 2000, Mid-Caps
• Gary: "There is no chance of ascending if you are below the 50-day moving average. The fact that price for the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 are back above the 50-day, that is good news."
• NASDAQ: "As long as the big indices are trading above the 50-day moving average, opportunity. If price goes back below, not opportunity."

The Recovery Since Nov 20: "Two Thursdays ago, I believe that date was the 20th of November. I thought hell was going to break loose. That was the day NVIDIA reported earnings and reversed harshly and took everything down, and just things looked awful. And then we gathered up the next day and really have not looked back. Simple as that."

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Semiconductors - "Just strong, another strong day"
   • AMAT new high
   • ASML new high
   • KLAC and LRCX better (not new highs yet)
   • Teradyne right up at new highs
   • Even weak Texas Instruments "starting to come on"
   • Gary: "Very tough to have a bear market when semiconductors are not croaking. They lead up, they lead down."
2. Silver - "Muevo and fuego" (up today)
3. Gold - Strong (pulled back today but still strong)
4. Crypto - Possible near-term low found

Lagging Sectors 🔴

1. Healthcare - Was strong, pulling back now (not a biggie)
2. Banks - Trading tight, setting up, "refuse to break out"
3. No-Sales Froth - Round-tripping, going back to where they came from

Leading Stocks 🚀

Semiconductors Leading:

• AMAT (Applied Materials) - New high
• ASML - New high
• Teradyne - Right at new highs
• Texas Instruments - Even weak names starting to come on
• Intel - Up 8%, broke to new high (Trump administration took position in company involved with Intel)

Insider Buying:

• DoorDash - Director bought $100M at $195 on Nov 25
  • Stock now $217 (up $11 today on upgrade)
  • Director owns 32M shares, bought 514K shares
  • Already made $11M profit
• Norwegian Cruise Lines - Multiple insiders buying Nov 6-7 and Nov 25
  • CEO: $460K, Chief Luxury Officer: $250K, CFO: $200K
  • Directors: $500K, $129K, $96K
  • Chief Vessel Operations (Nov 25): $99K
  • Bought at $18-19.50

Dow Leader:

• Caterpillar - Leading, looks like it could go to new highs

Setting Up:

• Goldman Sachs - Trading tight, hasn't broken out yet, "if they do, potentially playable"
• Citigroup - Same

Lagging Stocks 📉

Mega Caps Just Bouncing:

• Meta - Just bouncing
• Microsoft - Just bouncing
• Tesla - Just bouncing
• NVIDIA - "Looked like it was going to break down again yesterday and reversed. Was up $5 today. Only finished up $1."
  • Rallied right up towards 50-day MA and got sold
  • Remains range bound below 50-day
  • New commitments is an avoid
  • Support at ~$175 - "A break below there, we'll have to talk"

Healthcare Pullback:

• Eli Lilly - Dropped 1,111 → 1,046 (5%) after going from $900
• Overall healthcare "remains in shape" but pulling back

No-Sales Carnage Continuing:

• Examples: 10.5→5, 16.25→8 (50% drops), 19.75→5
• Rare earth stocks crushed after government hype
• Gary: "If nothing changes based on precedent, will all go back to where they came from. We're already seeing it in droves."

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Watching bank setups (Goldman, Citigroup)
• NVIDIA "new commitments is an avoid" (below 50-day)
• Happy about semiconductors leading

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

MAJOR FED/INFLATION WARNING - Gary's Most Alarmed in Weeks:

Powell Stopped QT Yesterday: "Jay Powell, as of yesterday, stopped quantitative tightening. I hate even talking about this crap, but it's a must, because the destruction this man created is beyond the beyond. And I'm worried about the destruction he's going to create going forward. And I'm worried about the destruction that Trump is going to create with easy money."

The Whole Story:

• Powell printed to $9 trillion, took rates to zero
• Bought 10-year bonds like crazy, "interfering with the free market"
• 10-year yield went to 0.5%, created all the inflation
• Biden stomped on it with "ridiculous deficit spending and growth of government"
• Had to stop printing, then roll it back (let bonds mature and go away)
• Now: No longer letting it roll off - if bond comes due, that fake money stays, probably buying more bonds

Kevin Hassett Next Fed Head: "President is going to take over. President Trump has called for 1% Fed funds. And I can promise you, we'll have 10% inflation if he does that."

"He's going to nominate, looks like this guy, Kevin Hassett, who's just Trump. You might as well put strings on his shoulders because he's just going to be a puppet."

"If they go to ridiculous easy money, it's going to create massive inflation again and all kinds of problems are going to happen again."

Why Indices Back Above 50-Day: "Kevin Hassett, I think, has got the market better and back above the 50-day moving average. That's the story."

10-Year Yield:

• Bounced up a little, was down today
• "No harm at this juncture. No harm. No harm."
• Watching bond market closely

Oil & Yields: "I'm happy that oil continues to just hang. I'm happy that yields just hang. And now we're getting a little dose of more easy money and we'll see where it takes us. At the end of that road, if they go too far, if you like that 9, 10% inflation..."

Key Observations 💡

Bitcoin/Crypto Assessment:

• Bitcoin broke 50-day on October 13 (Gary's bar mitzvah anniversary)
• Been on avoid list entire time
• "Dropped for a few days, rallied back up, tagged 50-day, then crumbled"
• Now: "Think probably, you got a near term low in for crypto"
• Tagged March/April lows, tested and gapped back up
• "Are we in a new bull? No. Possible new bull? Who knows?"

MicroStrategy/Michael Saylor:

• Now called just "Strategy"
• "Scares the crap out of me and should scare the crap out of you"
• "Leverage to buy Bitcoin"
• "What he basically does is buy Bitcoin. Gee, what a business."
• "No sales, no earnings, no product, no services"

Trump Family Crypto Involvement: "You ended up with the president and his family. They're involved, and they got encrypted, all kinds of whatever, and making billions."

Bitcoin Reality Check: "It is only based on the next person buying at a higher price. And nobody can argue that. It does nothing."

"Anybody could come up with any stupid price on Bitcoin, but it's based on nothing. Ask anybody in the business, what do they do? They can't answer."

Crypto Coin Track Record:

• Dennis Rodman pot coin: went to zero
• Mark Cuban coin: went to zero next day
• Melania Trump meme coin: down 99%
• Trump coin: down 95% (people cashed out beforehand)
• Bitcoin: went to $124K from nothing, so why can't it go to $250K, $500K, $1M?
• Gary: "I'm not saying it won't. I'm just saying this is not real world stuff."

Housing Affordability Warning: "They are talking about affordability now, but they're all missing the mark. It was caused by Powell, a lot of it, especially the housing."

"I'm in hopes this administration does nothing on affordability because they'll just make it worse. Because their answer to everything seems to be easier money and all that'll do is make it worse."

"You want distortions? Easy money. You want to not be able to afford a home? Easier money."

"If they just leave things alone, you know what's going to happen? Prices for housing will continue to come down, which would not necessarily be bad. It would just be a normalization from the clown Jay Powell that rigged the bond market that caused Fantasyland."

"The high end is now starting to be whooped. That's good to see."

Powell's Historical Destruction:

• "Remember, Bernanke started it and told us the printing would be short term. And he used the terminology quantitative easy and go screw himself."
• Powell printed to $9T, took rates to zero
• "Ripped the whole bond market, bought up 10-year bonds like crazy, interfering with the free market"
• "10-year yield went down to a half percent, created all the inflation"
• "Of course, screwed up the whole market to this day"

No-Sales Companies: "If nothing changes based on precedent, will all go back to where they came from. You need to know this. And we're already seeing it in droves."

"I've been amazed to watch people jump on the back of no-sales junk. When I use the word junk, it's just companies that have no sales. I use the term junk as a stock."

Rare Earth Government Involvement: "Government got involved, the president with the rare earth, and supposedly negotiations were on and contracts may or may not be signed with no-sales companies. Beats the hell out of us what's going on."

"They're taking another position, another company that's involved with Intel. Intel broke into new high ground today, up 8%. They better perform."

Insider Trading Concerns: "If we ever find out that there was massive insider trading with these things, well, nobody's going to go to jail. Nobody in DC goes to jail, right? And anybody who does go to jail gets pardoned, right?"

"The fact we even have to talk about that pisses the hell out of us."

DoorDash Insider Buying Context:

• Director owns 32M shares already (multi-billionaire)
• Bought $100M more (514K shares)
• Gary: "Usually rich people don't spend 100 million bucks if they think they're going to lose money"
• Already up $22/share = $11M profit
• "The rich get richer, right?"

Norwegian Cruise Lines Context:

• "Cruise line stocks except for Viking have been very, very weak"
• Multiple insiders buying over 3-week period is significant
• "We haven't been able to even do this, because there's really been no buying, insider buying whatsoever of anything out there"

Semiconductor Importance: "I can't promise you anything. I can state, very tough to have a bear market when the semiconductors are not croaking. They lead up, they lead down. And the fact that they've been getting better is, without a doubt, part of what's been going on with the market getting better."

50-Day Moving Average Rule: "As a lesson to all of you, there is no chance of ascending if you are below the 50-day moving average. Doesn't mean you ascend if you are above. You can stay above and sit around and do nothing, but the fact that price is back above the 50-day, that is good news."

The Two-Week Story: Nov 20: Thought hell would break loose after NVIDIA reversal Nov 21: Gathered up Now: Really have not looked back, all indices back above 50-day

10x MORE BREAKOUTS THAN BREAKDOWNS" - Market Internals Strongly Bullish

 

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

---

📅 Wednesday, November 26, 2025 (Adam Sarhan Guest Host)

"10x MORE BREAKOUTS THAN BREAKDOWNS" - Market Internals Strongly Bullish

Market Action

• Dow: Up 315 (47,427)
• S&P: Up 46 (6,812)
• NASDAQ: Up 190 (23,214)
• Market selling into close last few minutes - "No big deal"
• Russell 2000 and Mid-Caps: Already positive on the month (extremely impressive)
• S&P and NASDAQ: Almost positive on the month

Adam's Summary: "The environment remains very, really just remains strong. Bears had every chance in the world to send the market lower and they didn't. Instead, we rallied."

Leading Sectors 🟢

1. Healthcare/Biotech - "Lots breaking out"
2. Crypto - Bitcoin recovering
3. Broad Market - Continuing Friday/Tuesday strength

Market Internals (BreakoutsAndSetups.com Real-Time Data) 📊

Breakouts vs Breakdowns:

• 52 breakouts vs 6 breakdowns = Almost 10x more breakouts!
• Adam: "That tells me a lot. The market is speaking. Are you listening?"

Movers (Stocks Moving 3%+):

• 382 movers UP vs 68 movers DOWN
• Tuesday had 866 movers up vs 66 movers down (market rallied rest of day after Adam saw this)
• Monday had 631 movers up vs 102 movers down

New Highs vs New Lows:

• 149 stocks at 52-week highs, 59 at all-time highs
• 5 stocks at 52-week lows, 2 at all-time lows
• Adam: "Last week when market was falling apart, it was exact opposite. Movers down, hundreds. Movers up, single digits or low double digits."

Gap Ups (17 stocks):

• ASML, Robinhood (Bitcoin recovering), Teva Pharmaceuticals, Harmony Gold, Urban Outfitters

Gap Downs (7 stocks):

• Workday - earnings
• Zscaler (ZS) - Down $23 (~20%) after hours on earnings, "broke below 200 today"
• Ambarella (AMBA) - gap down
• PagerDuty (PD) - Down 23%

Leading Stocks 🚀

• Apple - Broke out Tuesday but closed below breakout point (moved to "below breakout" list)
• Healthcare/biotech names continuing

Lagging Stocks 📉

• NVIDIA - Down 15% from 52-week high (3-4 weeks ago) - "That's correction territory"
• Palantir - Down 20% from 52-week high (with this week's rally)
• Zscaler - Down $23 after hours on earnings

Adam's Key Teachings 💡

Position Sizing Lesson:

• If 10% position, 10% stop = only 1% portfolio risk
• $100K portfolio, 1% risk = $1,000 max loss
• "Gives me semblance of control. Allows me to plan."
• "Any one stock not going to destroy my portfolio because it's sized correctly in advance"

Math of Losses:

• Down 50% requires 100% gain to break even
• Down 25% requires 33% gain to break even
• Down 10% requires 11% gain to break even
• "Math is not linear. Set me free in a very big way."

Trading Psychology - Use Percents Not Dollars:

• "Money messes with my head. We're all emotionally attached to money."
• "Doctors can't operate on immediate family because of emotional attachment"
• "Hide the money part. No emotion to a percent. I don't know anybody emotionally attached to 4% or 22%."
• "I know everybody emotionally attached to $2,000, $20,000, $2 million"
• Book: "Psychological Analysis" - was #1 on Amazon for 3 months

Post-Trade Analysis System:

• Print out all trades
• Two folders: Winners and Losers (wash = loser)
• Write on chart: reasons for entry, reasons for exit
• Review end of month/quarter/year
• "You'll start detecting patterns in yourself you wouldn't be aware of"

The Hanger Example:

• "Nobody emotionally attached to a hanger in closet"
• "Can make right decision based on merits without emotional cloud"
• Same needs to apply to trading decisions

BreakoutsAndSetups.com Tool Features

• Updates in real time throughout trading day
• Tracks: Breakouts, Breakdowns, Movers up/down, Gap ups/downs, 52-week highs/lows, All-time highs/lows, Setups (tight, broad, large cap, small cap)
• History section - tracks how far above pivot point stocks are
• Free: First 3 breakouts daily, rest behind $39/month paywall
• Website: BreakoutsAndSetups.com
• Email: info@marketterminal.com

Market Outlook 🎯

Environment Assessment: "We're in a bull market. Markets are strong. We had every chance in the world to fall last week. Instead, we rallied, and we rallied hard this week, which is very impressive."

Month-End Setup:

• Small caps already up on month
• Big caps almost up on month
• "December tends to be a strong period as well"
• Friday last trading day of November (half day, Black Friday)

Adam's Relay Race Theory: "Maybe the time is being passed off as a relay race from leadership. AI stocks were leading on the way up. Maybe now they're going to pause for a little bit, we can see other areas start catching up. Or maybe the AI stocks had a little pullback or correction and now they're going to go right back up again. Either way, I'm open to anything."

Moving Average Framework:

• "Sometimes you just have to zoom out and watch these moving averages"
• Back above 50-day, back above 21-day (depending on index)

GRABBING VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT

 

📊 Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum's "Investor's Edge"

Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning

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📅 Monday, November 24, 2025

"GRABBING VICTORY FROM THE JAWS OF DEFEAT" - NASDAQ Up 598, Only 270 Points From Thursday's High

Market Action

• NASDAQ: Up 598 points (6.8% vs Dow's 0.4%) - "one-note move"
• NASDAQ Status: Now only 270 points below Thursday's reversal high of 23,147
• Dow: Up 200 points (0.4%) - mostly Goldman Sachs
• SOX (Semis): Up $2.96 to $67.33
  • Thursday high: $68.82
  • Friday low: $61.60
  • Today close: $67.33
  • 10% bounce in 2 days from Friday low
• Opened NASDAQ up 390, finished up 598
• Bitcoin: Bounced from "very, very extended and stretched conditions"

Gary's Reaction: "I am wildly surprised by today. Massively surprised by today. I expected bounces this week. I did not expect 600 points on the NASDAQ today. Completely forgetting Thursday."

Trump News: "Spoke to China. We're having a meeting. We're going to drop this tariff. We expect an explosion in the economy." Gary: "Don't care."

Leading Sectors 🟢

THE ONE NOTE - Tech/AI/Semis ROARED BACK:

1. Semiconductors - Up big, 10% bounce in 2 days
2. Big Tech/Mega Caps - Led the charge
3. AI Names - Strongest bounce

Gary: "I'm not going to say today was a one-note move, but the big moves were saved for the one note."

Lagging Sectors 🔴

Everything Else - Same Stuff:

1. Most Retail (except Ralph Lauren)
2. Housing
3. Insurance
4. Restaurants
5. Economically Sensitive (Non-AI)
6. Financials (bunch of them)
7. ADP/Paychecks

Gary: "Usual weakness today. Same stuff. Remember, we told you a lot of stocks went by the wayside. Broke the 50-day moving average, and only until they get back above that are they in any consideration. A bunch of them bounced today, did not get back above."

Leading Stocks 🚀

The Two Strongest Names:

• LITE (Lumentum) - Up 17%, finished ~$300
  • Closed Friday: $256
  • Hit $289 in third bar of morning
  • Gary's tracking: "274→215, 282→229, back to 300 in a few days"
• Google - "The other strongest. The number one mega cap stock by far now."

Other Big Movers:

• Broadcom - Back to $377
  • Thursday: 376→345
  • Friday low: $332
  • Today: $377 (fully recovered and more)
• MicroStrategy - Up $8 (because Bitcoin up)
• Ralph Lauren - Only retail strength

Lagging Stocks 📉

Not Bouncing Despite Market Rally:

• Oracle - 345→200, "not bouncing"
• CoreWeave - 187→173
• MicroStrategy - 457→179 (despite today's $8 bounce)
  • Bitcoin only down 25%, MicroStrategy down 61%

Stocks Below 50-Day:

• "A bunch bounced today, did not get back above"

Gary's Positioning 💰

• Has cold/flu (not COVID, no fever)
• "So happy I was out of those areas coming into those two days" (from Friday)
• Watching carefully
• Surprised by magnitude of bounce

Crash/Correction Outlook 🎯

GARY'S CRITICAL LEARNING - WHY HE DIDN'T CALL THE TOP:

"On Thursday, in years past, normally, I would have come out and said to you, this market has topped. That's what I would have normally did."

Why Thursday Looked Like "One of the Great Tops":

1. NVIDIA (most important stock) got smoked on earnings
2. NASDAQ reversed 1,100 points (23,147→22,043)
3. Heavy volume (institutional selling)
4. "They got the pretty girls" - tanked the leading stocks
5. 60-70% of market already in bear phases

But Gary Held His Words: "Instead, on Thursday, we said to you, I have no clue what tomorrow brings. Because until we are fully topped, this market has had its way of grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat."

"When I look back to Thursday, it looks like one of the great tops I have ever seen... And I must tell you, we had to hold our breath. We had to hold our words, because as I went to sleep that night, I'm thinking, holy crap."

The Lesson: "I've seen this before, and I'm going to be careful with my verbiage going forward until things are really dead."

Support Level Identified - The Line in Sand:

• NASDAQ ~22,000-22,200 = support zone
• October 10 close: 22,193 (Trump tariff day)
• September 25 low: 22,185
• September 17 low: 22,058
• Friday undercut by ~100 points, then rallied back

Gary: "We're drawing the line. $22,000 a little bit more. There's your support. And I'm pretty sure that's what's going on here."

Coast to Coast Sentiment: "After a nauseating high-volume reversal dropped, we've gone coast to coast in sentiment on the stuff that was leading. They went from crumbling them, 20 to 30 percent drops. By the way, I saw a couple down 35 in days. As you wonder, what's with that?"

The Bounce Setup:

1. "Shortened holiday week" - seasonal strength
2. "Quite oversold"
3. "Fear and greed measurements, a lot of fear"

Questions Gary's Getting: "I'm already getting emails. What? Tribe moves like this? Answer. Donut? Gary, you always talk about institutions and positioning and getting out... But now they're in there buying today. How does that happen? Donut?"

AI Bubble Questions:

• "Gary, they're telling me the AI bubble has burst. We'll see."
• "People all over social media are saying it's a con. The accounting's bad. We'll find out."
• Gary: "When we read something on air, they're facts, not opinion. The facts are massive amount of debt to pay for all this."

Examples of Debt Problems:

• Oracle: 345→200 (debt issues)
• CoreWeave: 187→173 (debt issues)
• MicroStrategy: 457→179 (leverage scheme)

Key Observations 💡

Why Friday's Broad Market Rally Was Just Bounces: "What happened on Friday, the broad market out of nowhere woke up. What's with that? But as I scanned the broad market over the weekend, it was just stocks that are just way down in their bearish phases bouncing."

The Abnormal Swings:

• LITE: 274→215→282→229→300 in days
• Broadcom: 376→345→332→377 in 3 days
• Gary: "I'd like to say this is abnormal, and yeah, I would say coast to coast is, but I've seen this before"

The One-Note Nature:

• NASDAQ up 6x more than Dow percentage-wise
• "Big moves were saved for the one note"
• Everything else "usual weakness"

50-Day Moving Average Key:

• Many stocks broke 50-day
• "Only until they get back above that are they in any consideration"
• Today many bounced but "did not get back above"

Bond Market Still Cooperating:

• 10-year yield: 4.038
• "Bond markets still cooperating"
• Fed likely cutting quarter point in December

Debt Reality:

• "$6 billion a day of debt"
• 6 billion x 365 = $2.19 trillion/year
• Gary: "They hate us. We're just marks for their con. Both parties, including this one."

DOGE Shutdown:

• Gary was excited about DOGE cutting spending
• "You know what they realized? If we cut government spending, it hurts GDP. And since we spend so much, we can't do that. Screw it. Let's run the debt and deficits."

Trump Tariff Claims:

• Trump: "The tariffs have brought in so much money from other countries"
• Gary: "Stop, we're not idiots"

Economic Forecasts:

• "He's got everybody else saying, oh, the economy is going to be monstrous next year"
• Gary: "If it is, it's because of us. We're good."

Gary's Health:

• Has cold/flu all weekend
• "When I get sick, I get sick"
• Not COVID, no fever, doesn't think it's flu

The Pattern Recognition: Gary comparing this to past market tops where it LOOKED like the top, but the market came back. He's learned not to call tops until they're "fully topped and gone" because "this market has had its way of grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat."

This is why he's being very careful with his words despite Thursday looking like "one of the great tops I have ever seen."