Tracking leading/lagging sectors, top stocks, and market positioning
📅 Wednesday, March 18, 2026
"STAGFLATIO"STAGFLATION" - Hot PPI, GDP 0.7%, S&P Support in Danger, Running Out of AreasN" - Hot PPI, GDP 0.7%, S&P Support in Danger, Running Out of Areas
🎯 ACTIONABLE SUMMARY FOR TRADERS
🔴 IMMEDIATE AVOIDS (New Breakdowns)
- GOLD/SILVER - Broke 50-day MA on volume → NO NEW COMMITMENTS
- Also: Platinum, palladium, all precious metals
- HEALTHCARE/DRUGS - Whole complex topping → AVOID
- Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Merck, Glaxo - breaking down
- IBB, BBH, XLV - big tops in place
- Medical products, research, managed care, biotech - all avoid
- CREDIT CARDS - At new yearly lows → MAJOR WARNING
- MasterCard, Visa - "two very important stocks"
- Capital One, American Express weak
- Gary: "Not so sure it's good news when financials are doing what they're doing"
- SOFTWARE - Bounce FAILED → Bearish rally over
- IGV rolling over at declining 50-day
- Microsoft rolling over (was up 6, finished +1)
- "May just be bearish market bounce... so far, that's all it is"
- CRYPTO - Bounce FAILED → May already be over
- Hit declining 50-day and stopped
- "Vicious bear market territory"
- Need +40% just to hit $100k from $70k
- NO-SALES STOCKS - Final capitulation → Gone bye-bye
- OKLO: $194→$56, Trump Media: $60→$9.13
- Many now single digits
🟢 WHAT'S WORKING (Actionable Longs)
- DISCOUNT RETAIL - "Stand out big time"
- Five Below (FIVE): $26→$200 (2012-now), +$14 aftermarket, near ATH
- Ross Stores (ROST): Gapping up, strong
- El Pollo Loco: Broke out on volume, 4 days up
- SEMIS - Still strong relative (but weakening at end of day)
- SanDisk +$25, LITE +$50
- Micron -$2 aftermarket (held up well)
- DEFENSE/OIL - War-driven (obvious reasons)
- Gary: "When your best stocks are oils and defense, I'm not so sure that's good news"
📊 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
- S&P April Support: "Right on the bubble now" - hit couple times, bounced
- Gary: "Not so sure it's going to bounce this time"
- Gold 50-day: BROKEN on volume (was the line)
- Software IGV 50-day: Rolling over at declining MA
- Crypto 50-day: Failed right there
🔍 BLIND SPOTS GARY UNCOVERED
What Most Traders Don't See:
- Amazon at Nov 2024 levels - Down 15% from Oct highs
- Gary: "I didn't even realize this"
- MasterCard/Visa at new yearly lows - Huge signal for consumer
- "Two very important stocks" breaking = credit stress
- Only 30-35% of stocks in good shape (Gary's proprietary count)
- Only 7 of 30 Dow stocks bullish (2 topping: Verizon, Walmart)
- "Running out of areas to avoid" - Market extremely narrow
- Gold, silver, healthcare, software, crypto, mega caps, financials ALL avoid
- Gary: "We've got to be watching things carefully from here"
- Discount retail thriving while credit cards break = Class divide signal
- Five Below at ATH, MasterCard/Visa at yearly lows = stagflation footprint
🌊 UNDERLYING CURRENTS
The Stagflation Setup:
- GDP: 0.7% (less than 1%)
- Jobs: "Sucks" - Lost jobs 6 of last 12 months
- Inflation: Hot PPI (before war)
- Oil: $97 (+50%), Gas: $3.88 (from $2.90)
Consumer Under Pressure:
- Oil/gas = "sharp stick in eye for consumer"
- Discount retail working (Five Below, Ross)
- Credit cards breaking (MA/V)
- High-end consumer dead
War Impact:
- Defense/oil working
- Airlines/cruise/travel breaking
Gary's Stagflation Warning:
"If we have bout of stagflation, market's going to go lower. Profits go south, valuations go up then come down."
📉 MARKET CARNAGE
- Dow: -768
- S&P: -91
- NASDAQ: -327
- NASDAQ 100: -355
📋 DETAILED BREAKDOWN
🚨 GARY'S STAGFLATION WARNING - BLAMING TRUMP
The Setup:
"My father always said, whatever happens, whoever's running the country gets the credit or gets the opposite."
"I'm not sure the Trump lovers are going to be happy with what I have to say."
The Trifecta:
- GDP: Just revised to 0.7% (less than one)
- Job Market: "Sucks" - worst in years, 6 months out of last year we lost jobs
- Inflation: Producer Price Index came in very hot - much higher than expected
Gary: "We now have potential... Stagflation. That's a stagnant economy and still have inflation."
📈 THE HOT PPI NUMBER
What is PPI?
Gary explains: "Measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It measures inflationary pressures."
Result: "It came in very hot."
Critical Context:
"This inflation number is before the war and oil prices under President Donald Trump."
"These numbers are before the war."
🏛️ GARY BLAMES TRUMP DIRECTLY
The Irony:
"For all you conservatives out there... you loathed that Kamala Harris... take long-term capital gains up to 44%, possibly unrealized capital gains, maybe a wealth tax, let the Trump tax cuts expire."
"So in comes Trump, the breath of fresh air... extend the tax cuts... no tax on tips."
But Then:
"But then what happens? Tariffs."
"Tariffs are just raising taxes. And as I have told you, raising taxes is bad for the economy. And the more you raise taxes, the worse it is for the economy."
"He has admitted a few times, and then he had a lie again. Tariffs."
The Uncertainty:
"And then the word uncertainty. When you change your stance 300 times on tax policy, well, there you have it."
🛢️ OIL - "SHARP STICK IN THE EYE"
Current Prices:
- Oil: $97 (up 50%)
- Gas at pump: $3.88 (up from $2.90)
Gary: "You know what that is? A sharp stick in the eye for the consumer."
Gary's Message to Trump:
"I think the president needs to come to a realization. If I had his ear, I would be in his ear right now and say Mr. President, war is also economic. War is also economic."
📉 TRUMP WRONG ON JAY POWELL
What Trump Said: "Jay Powell needs to lower interest rates"
Gary's Response:
"Jay Powell kept interest rates the same today. They had their meeting."
"Jay Powell is at 3.5%, the 10-year is at 4.26%, and the 30-year is 4.88%."
"What have we told you about too much easy money? It creates more inflation."
"We nailed it for you what Jay Powell did when he printed it to up to $9 trillion and then rigged the whole freaking bond market, distorting the whole housing market."
"So the president's wrong on that."
🎯 GARY'S VERDICT ON TRUMP
What Trump Says:
"While he was out again today saying we are in a golden age of economy and economics, we say it's the opposite."
"Do not believe when he says we're the hottest country in the world. That's a BS. Golden age, that's BS."
What Gary Says:
"We're right, they're wrong."
"The goal should be lower taxes, less regulations, get the hell out of the way."
"But as you know, they are injecting themselves into everything, which is also a little bit of a problem."
"They were out blaming Biden today. What? And as you know, we think Biden sucked."
Gary's Bottom Line:
"Outcome's everything. Outcome. And right now the outcome is not very good."
"Job market is not good at all. GDP, not good. And now inflation picking up."
📊 S&P SUPPORT IN DANGER
Critical Level:
"We've had that S&P since last April. We're getting close to knocking that bad boy out."
"It's right on the bubble now. Hit it a couple of times and bounced."
"Not so sure it's going to bounce this time. We'll see."
🥇 GOLD/SILVER - NOW AVOIDS
The Breakdown:
"We told you recently that the gold miners, once it broke the 50, it was over."
"Gold broke the 50 day moving average today on volume. Gold miners and silver worsen."
Gary's Call:
"They are avoids now."
"We're not telling you to sell, buy, short cover. If you own them long term, God bless you."
"We're just letting you know we don't believe there should be any new commitments to gold and silver right now."
Broader Metals:
"For that matter, a lot. I look at the platinum, the palladium and some of the other stuff that ends up in EM, they're avoids."
"They've all broken down below moving averages, below resistance, and they're just plain old avoids now."
💀 NO-SALES STOCKS - "GONE BYE-BYE"
Gary's September Warning Validated:
"Back in, I believe it was September when all those no sales stuff skyrocketed and a bunch of jackasses were touting you on them."
"I remember one person calling a no sales nuclear company a growth stock."
Gary's Rule:
"We have this simple line that's been lasting years for us. And that is if nothing changes and they continue to have no sales, eventually they're going to go back to where they came from."
The Carnage:
OKLO (Poster Child):
- $194 → $56 ("and change")
Other Examples:
- One: $11.50 → $3
- Lithium Americas: Down 65%
- Rare earth: $11.30 → $3.50
- New Scale Power (nuclear): $57 → $12 (75% down, still $3.6B market cap with "very little sales")
- Trump Media: Just broke $10 at $9.13 (was $60, still $2.5B market cap)
Gary: "We hope you listened. We hated the fact they were touting you on this crap."
"They're all going back to where they came from. And the next time it occurs, we'll warn you again. But right now they are gone bye-bye."
"I just noticed a lot of them are now single digits. They didn't, they weren't used to be single digits."
🛒 RETAIL WINNERS - "STAND OUT BIG TIME" IN SEA OF BEAR MARKETS
Gary's Contrast:
"In a sea of retail stocks in bear markets, Five Below and Ross Stores stand out big time."
FIVE BELOW (FIVE) - ⭐ STAR PERFORMER
Stock Performance:
- Up $14 in aftermarket near all-time highs
- IPO 2012 at $26 → Now $200
- 1,771 targeted discount retail stores in 44 states
- Opened 227 new stores in 2025
Gary: "They must be doing something right."
"Have you ever been one of those stores? I've never. You know what I have to do? Go into one of their stores."
"I'm gonna have to check this Five Below out."
ROSS STORES (ROST) - Strong
Gary: "Ross Stores gaps up"
"Stand out big time"
EL POLLO LOCO - Breakout
"Just broke out on big volume, up for four days in a row. I gotta see what's going on there."
"El Pollo, Pollo in Spanish is chicken, right? I think. I don't think I've ever been to one."
💊 HEALTHCARE/DRUGS - NOW AVOIDS (INCLUDING ELI LILLY)
New Sector Breakdown:
"I got another area now to avoid. Drugs."
🔻 MAJOR DRUG STOCKS BREAKING DOWN:
- ELI LILLY ⚠️
- AbbVie
- Glaxo
- Abbott
- AstraZeneca
- Merck: "Been strong on the down, but looks like it's breaking the 50 day today"
Gary: "We would avoid the drugs."
Broader Healthcare:
"We've already been on the void with all the medical products, research and the like. I mean, just a big avoid throwing the drugs down."
"Throw in the drugs now. Oh, manage care. That's medical. Add some biotech."
The ETFs:
- IBB (biotech): "Big tops in place"
- BBH (biotech): "Big tops in place"
- XLV (healthcare): "Total big top"
Gary: "The whole healthcare complex, yeah."
"Another area to avoid."
⚠️ "WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF AREAS TO AVOID"
Gary's Warning:
"You know what that means. We're running out of areas to avoid. That means we've got to be watching things carefully from here."
🚀 WHAT'S STILL STRONG (FOR NOW)
Semis:
- "Had a great relative bid today"
- SanDisk: +$25
- LITE: +$50
- "But when the market had that last leg down today, they came in too"
Micron Aftermarket: Down $2 (pretty good after move it's had)
Optical/Storage/Data/Memory: "Having a good day" until end-of-day selloff
Defense Stocks: "Still for obvious reasons"
Oils: "For obvious reasons"
Fertilizers: "Not all for obvious reasons" (bottleneck at Straits of Hormuz)
📉 ONLY 7 OF 30 DOW STOCKS BULLISH
Gary's Count:
"I only have now 7 of the 30 Dow stocks with bullish trends."
"And two of them look like they're topping, and that is Verizon and Walmart."
📊 PROPRIETARY COUNT - 30-35%
Gary's Measure:
"My little proprietary count of how many stocks are in good versus bad shape, we are getting towards a very low number."
"I think we're like 30, 35%."
"And that is not good numbers."
His Concern:
"And also when your best stocks are oils and defense, I'm not so sure that's good news either. Again, for obvious reasons."
💻 SOFTWARE - "BEARISH MARKET BOUNCE"
Status:
"Software stocks, we had said to you know, they're acting better, but they were so stretched, extended to the downside. It may just be a bearish market bounce slash rally."
"Well, so far, that's all it is."
The Evidence:
"One look at the IGV starting to roll over right near the declining 50-day moving average."
"And all important Microsoft starting to roll over again. And it was trying, but it ain't working now."
"So software, not so great."
💰 CRYPTO - "MAY ALREADY BE OVER"
Status:
"So there's been a nascent, notice the bounce slash rally in the crypto. I have to tell you, it may already be over."
"And you know where it's over at? Right near the declining 50-day moving average, which keeps it in vicious bear market territory."
The Math:
"Do you know we have to go up 40% just to get 100,000 now? I think we're at 70,000, more than 40% just to get to 100,000, let alone 1.5 million."
Gary's Rage:
"I loathe those people who make those predictions. They're such a BS. They're liars. How's that? They're liars. They're BS artists. They're trying to talk their book and talk you into getting some."
"Every time I see somebody smiling on TV, oh, we're fine. Yeah, we know it's down 45%. That happens all the time. Sure."
The Context:
"Do not forget what I told you. 32,000 coins were tried, and there's still a bunch trading that nobody even talks about."
"And while Bitcoin's down, what, 40 some odd percent from the highs? There are a bunch of others down 75 and 80."
💻 MEGA CAPS - "ALL PRETTY MUCH YUCK"
The Best: "Dell. But guess what happened with Dell? It broke above a little range and tucked its head in like a frightened turtle."
NVIDIA: "Just still in that range"
The Rest - "All Look Crappy":
- Tesla
- Siemens
- SAP
- Qualcomm
- Oracle
- Meta
- Microsoft
- Salesforce.com
- Booking Holdings
- Apple
- Adobe
- Amazon
- AMD
- Broadcom
Exception:
- Netflix: "One of them is better. Why? Because they were buying somebody, now they're not. So that got a nice little boost."
Gary: "Google's been trying to do better, but nah."
💳 CREDIT CARDS - NEW YEARLY LOWS ⚠️⚠️
🔻 MASTERCARD & VISA - MAJOR BREAKDOWN:
"I noticed MasterCard and Visa getting busted today."
"MasterCard right at new yearly lows."
"Visa is at new yearly lows."
"Amazing. Those are two very important stocks."
Also Weak:
- Capital One Financial: "Same"
- American Express: "Under pressure"
Gary: "Not so sure it's good news when financials are doing what they're doing."
🏦 FINANCIALS - "JUST AVOID"
Status: "Financials we're trying today? Not good. Just avoid."
🏛️ GARY'S GOVERNMENT RANTS
Medicare Complexity:
"If you thought the tax code was complicated, try reading the crap they sent to you on Medicare."
"I got a thing today that says, your Medicare Part D explanation of benefits. I will tell you, Stephen Hawking and Albert Einstein can't figure some of this crap out."
"They really do hate us. You have to hate the people to do what they're doing."
Tax Code:
"70,000 pages in the tax code. 2,600 pages of statutory law to over 70,000 pages when including IRS regulations, rulings, and case law."
"Have you ever just taken a step back and just said to yourself and asked the question, why don't they just make it, here's your tax rate, here's the three things you can write off, and that's it."
TSA Crisis:
"You see what the hell's happening in the airports? They really hate us."
"350 have just quit and a bunch of them now aren't even showing up."
"And there's three and four hour lines at some of these airports."
"There's talk that maybe they have to shut an airport or two, one of the smaller airports."
"It should be the number one story."
Debt:
"They've taken us to $39 trillion of debt."
"$2.8 trillion of debt in the last year under Trump. The guy who said, no, we're not going to do that."
Corruption:
"They're corrupt with their insider trading. They're becoming multimillionaires through a lot of weird crap in DC."
🎯 WHAT IF STAGFLATION CONTINUES?
Gary's Warning:
"And if in fact we do have a bout of stagflation for a while, market's going to go lower."
"Do you know why? Profits go south to a certain extent, which means valuations go up and then they come down."
Gary's Key Quotes
On Trump/Economy:
"Whatever happens, whoever's running the country gets the credit or gets the opposite."
"We're right, they're wrong."
"Tariffs are just raising taxes."
"Mr. President, war is also economic."
"Golden age, that's BS."
"Outcome's everything. And right now the outcome is not very good."
On Stagflation:
"We now have potential... Stagflation."
"These numbers are before the war."
On PPI:
"It came in very hot."
On Oil:
"You know what that is? A sharp stick in the eye for the consumer."
On S&P Support:
"Not so sure it's going to bounce this time."
On Gold/Silver:
"They are avoids now."
On No-Sales Stocks:
"They're all going back to where they came from."
"A bunch of jackasses were touting you on them."
On Healthcare:
"The whole healthcare complex, yeah. Another area to avoid."
On Running Out of Avoids:
"We're running out of areas to avoid. That means we've got to be watching things carefully from here."
On His Count:
"30, 35%... And that is not good numbers."
On Software Bounce:
"It may just be a bearish market bounce... so far, that's all it is."
On Crypto:
"It may already be over."
"They're liars. They're BS artists."
On Mega Caps:
"All pretty much yuck."
"Tucked its head in like a frightened turtle."
On Credit Cards:
"MasterCard right at new yearly lows. Visa is at new yearly lows. Amazing."
On Government:
"They really do hate us."
"Stephen Hawking and Albert Einstein can't figure some of this crap out."
On Stagflation Impact:
"Market's going to go lower."
💼 TRADER TAKEAWAYS - MARCH 18, 2026
🚨 IMMEDIATE ACTION ITEMS
AVOID/EXIT:
- Gold/Silver - 50-day broken on volume, no new longs
- Healthcare/Drugs - Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Merck, IBB, BBH, XLV - whole complex topping
- Credit Cards - MA/V at new yearly lows = major consumer stress signal
- Software - IGV/MSFT rolling over, bounce failed
- Crypto - Stopped at declining 50-day, may be over
WATCH FOR LONGS:
- Discount Retail - Five Below ($200 near ATH), Ross Stores (working in stagflation)
- Semis - Still relatively strong (SanDisk +25, LITE +50) but watch for weakness
- Defense/Oil - War plays (obvious, not sustainable)
CRITICAL LEVELS:
- S&P April Support - "On the bubble" - if breaks, next leg down
- Watch for failed bounces = selling opportunities
🎯 THE TRADE
Market Regime: Stagflation setup = bad for most assets
- GDP 0.7%, jobs terrible, inflation rising
- Only 30-35% stocks in good shape
- Only 7 of 30 Dow stocks bullish
- "Running out of areas to avoid"
The Play:
- Defensive positioning - majority cash or short until S&P support holds/breaks
- Selective longs in discount retail (consumer trading down)
- Avoid bounces in broken sectors (gold, healthcare, software, crypto)
- Watch credit cards - MA/V new lows = leading indicator for consumer credit crisis
Gary's Warning: "If we have bout of stagflation, market's going to go lower."
🔍 KEY INSIGHT - THE BLIND SPOT
What Wall Street Isn't Talking About:
MasterCard & Visa at new yearly lows = Consumer credit stress nobody's discussing
Combined with:
- Five Below at all-time highs (discount)
- Ross Stores strong (discount)
- Cruise lines/airlines breaking (discretionary)
- Healthcare breaking (high-ticket)
This is the stagflation footprint: Consumer trading down, cutting high-end spending, credit maxed out.
The Implication: If credit cards are breaking NOW (before full economic impact), what happens when:
- GDP keeps slowing (currently 0.7%)
- Job losses continue (6 of last 12 months)
- Oil stays high ($97, gas $3.88)
Gary's Count Says It All: Only 30-35% of market in good shape. This is NOT a bull market - it's a narrow handful of stocks holding up indices while everything else implodes.
