Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaultbaum Analysis
Last Updated: September 22, 2025
🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)
Consumer Staples & Beverages
- Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
- Reason: Usage of alcohol dropping significantly
- Soft Drinks: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Dr Pepper
- Status: Bear markets, especially Dr Pepper
- Note: Coke trading lower than April 2022 levels
Industrial & Transportation
- Rails & Truckers: Described as "pitiful"
- Shipping: UPS (definitely weak), FedEx (not as bad but weak)
- Airlines: Starting to show weakness
- Alaska Air: Topped out on heavy volume
- Delta: May be rolling over
- Hotels: Getting "squirrely/mushy"
- Marriott: On weak side, needs support to hold
Financial Services
- Exchanges: CME Group, CBOE, ICE
- Status: Bearish phases, some broken
- Payroll Processing: ADP, Paychecks
- Status: Bearish phases
Healthcare
- Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly
- Medical Devices: Intuitive Surgical (616 → 434, down from 8 months ago)
- Insurance: UnitedHealth bounced but others weak
Other Weak Areas
- Waste Management: Bear markets
- Restaurants: Acting very poorly (most names)
- Oil: Still weak, though not as bad as before
- Cruise Lines: Royal Caribbean broke 50-day moving average
⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS (Sept 22)
"1999 Vibes" - Gary's Red Flags
- Nuclear Stocks: OKLO - $21B market cap, NO SALES, down 13% to up 5% same day
- Quantum Computing: $8.2B market cap, $18→$28 in 5 days, was $0.72 a year ago, NO SALES
- General Theme: "Buy at any price because it's on the move" mentality returning
- Gary's Warning: "When the music stops... if nothing changes, they're all going to crash. And I mean crash. 90s."
Historical Pattern
- MetSera: $18 IPO → bought by Pfizer for $47.50 (closed $53), NO SALES, $6B deal
- Theme Stocks: Robo taxis, drones, quantum computing, nuclear all in mania phase
- Dollar Stocks: Going to $3 in a week (Gary won't name them)
IPO Carnage Continues
- StubHub: $27.89 open → $17.40 in 4 days, loses money 3 of last 4 quarters
- Pattern: Hot IPOs opening high, then "crumbling"
🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)
Technology & AI - MEGA CAP LEADERSHIP ⚡
- NVIDIA: BROKE OUT! $100B OpenAI partnership announced, up $6.70, "hocket pivot with volume"
- Partnership: Deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, CEO says "additive" to guidance
- Apple: Momentum accelerating - up another $11, broke above 250 (Feb high), targeting 260
- Strong iPhone demand driving suppliers: Taiwan Semi, Cirrus Logic, Orvo
- Oracle: Explosive move - up $19 to $327 on continued AI theme strength
- Tesla: Up $9 on political developments + robo taxi hype (targeting 488 old highs)
- Meta: Hit on TikTok deal news but still in play above $800
- Google: Holding gains from DOJ bounce (230→254)
AI/Data Infrastructure EXPLOSIVE BREAKOUTS
- Semiconductor Equipment: Another strong day - Applied Materials, LAM Research, KLAC, ASML
- Data Center Construction/Energy: All moving on NVIDIA news
- Symbols: CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS - "very good setups"
- Teradyne: Upgraded, up 10% (had been weaker)
Commodities - GOLD BULL MARKET
- Gold: Successful 18-week breakout, 318→345 in 3 weeks ("big bull market")
- Gold Miners: 55→74 in 6 weeks ("holy crap"), miners leading is bullish signal
Financial Services
- Major Banks: Strong performance
- JPMorgan: New yearly high
- Goldman Sachs: Right at highs
Energy - Nuclear
- Uranium & Nuclear: "Straight up" on news
- Catalyst: Uranium reserve announcement to cut Russian dependence
- Caution: Some stocks have $14B market caps with zero sales
Individual Standouts
- Tesla: Up big on Elon Musk's $1B stock purchase
- Oracle: Driving the AI/data center rally
🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL
Market Context
- S&P 500 at record highs (3.3x sales - highest in history)
- Fed rate cut expected Wednesday (100% certainty)
- 20/20 times Fed cut with S&P at highs = stocks higher 12 months later (+13.9% avg)
- But 11/22 times = stocks lower 1 month later
Watch List
- Consumer Discretionary: Mixed signals with travel weakness
- Technology Broad: Beyond AI/semi equipment
- Small Cap: Monitoring for rotation opportunities
📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 22)
- NASDAQ: Up 157 today on mega-cap strength
- Dow: Up 66
- Top 7 Stocks: 64% of NASDAQ 100 weight (driving indices higher)
- 10-Year Treasury: Rates ticking up again (no down days since Fed cut!)
- Russell 2000: Still weak, small caps lagging
Technical Breakouts Confirmed
- Gold: 318→345 (18-week range breakout successful)
- Gold Miners: 55→74 in 6 weeks
- NVIDIA: Finally broke dormant range on partnership news
- Apple: 241→250→targeting 260
🚨 VENDOR FINANCING CONCERN
NVIDIA/OpenAI Deal: Gary questioning if this is "vendor financing" like in 1999
- "You give money to somebody and they buy your stuff"
- Plans to investigate this structure further
- Historical parallel to dot-com era financing schemes
🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS (Sept 19)
Real-World Observations:
- Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
- Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
- Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
- Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
- Houses staying on market much longer
- Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"
🎯 Gary's Key Themes (Updated Sept 22)
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"1999 Bubble Conditions" - No-sales companies with multi-billion market caps, "buy at any price" mentality
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Mega-Cap Market - NVIDIA breakout + Apple momentum + Tesla politics = NASDAQ leadership
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Travel Sector Collapse - Systematic topping in hotels, airlines (except United)
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Gold Bull Market - Successful technical breakout, miners leading (bullish signal)
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Theme Stock Mania - Nuclear, quantum computing, robo taxis, drones all in speculative phase
-
Interest Rate Paradox - Fed cuts but yields rising daily since cut
-
IPO Warning Continues - Hot IPOs "crumbling" after initial pop
Gary's Big Picture: "Getting more frothy" but setups in AI/data centers look strong. Watching for vendor financing concerns in NVIDIA deal.
💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS
Oracle (ORCL): EXPLOSIVE - up $19 to $327 with volume, Gary's defense thesis playing out
NVIDIA (NVDA): Finally broke out on OpenAI news, "hocket pivot with volume" - move through today's highs confirms
Data Center Construction/Energy: All setting up for "further move" - CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS
Apple (AAPL): Gary admits he "should have bought" Friday's technical break - now targeting 260
Gold/Miners: 18-week breakout thesis successful - GLD (318→345), miners leading is bullish
Gary's Miss: Admits missing Apple's Friday technical move he flagged - up another $11 today
Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaultbaum show analysis]
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