Thursday, October 2, 2025

📝 OCTOBER 2, 2025 - Guest Host Adam Sarhan (BreakoutsAndSetups.com)

Gary was not present. Adam Sarhan provided technical breakout analysis - a different lens from Gary's fundamental/sector approach. His focus on breakouts often captures stocks Gary won't cover.

Market Status (Oct 2)

Extended Short Term: "Can easily pull back"
Key Support Levels: Watch 21-day and 50-day moving averages
Leadership: NASDAQ 100/QQQ (semiconductors/tech heavy)
Russell 2000: "Woke up" on Fed cut expectations
Government Shutdown: Jobs report delayed tomorrow

🚀 ADAM'S BREAKOUT STOCKS (Oct 2) - 35 Breakouts, 122 Setups

Major Breakouts with Volume

TSHA (Taisha Gene Therapy) - Biotech, loses money

Up 53%, closed ~$5
Volume: 121M shares vs 3.5M average
Basing sideways for months, institutional buying
Adam: "Not touching it with 10-foot pole" but notes the action

ASTS (AST Space Mobile) - Telecom satellites

Broke out above $60 on monster volume
Volume: 30M shares vs 10M average
Base range: $36-$60 for several months
Loses money currently but big institutional buying

CRSP (CRISPR Therapeutics)

Broke out few days ago, broke out again today
New high breakout at $52.50
Very strong action, mid-level base breakout

TSLA (Tesla) - Adam's Big Winner

Broke out 9/11-9/12 at $367
Closed today $435, high $470
$100 move in 2-3 weeks ($367→$470)
"Really good breakout"

APLD (Applied Digital)

Broke out but extended, Adam passed

STLD (Steel Dynamics) - Steel sector

Broke out today
Adam checking other steel stocks for theme

DD (DuPont) - Chemicals

Makes money (unusual for Adam's list)
Nice mid-level breakout
Checking other chemical stocks for theme

ROST (Ross Stores) - Retail

Broke out above $153.54
Closed $156.18, high $155
Mid-level breakout (not all-time high)

RL (Ralph Lauren) - Luxury retail

Breakout today
Part of retail theme with Ross

ZGN - Italian luxury menswear

Multi-month breakout
Lower volume than ideal but noted

International/Specialized Breakouts

CAN - Chinese company, Bitcoin mining

Broke out from bottoming pattern
Low-priced, Adam passed

LTRX -

Nice base-on-base pattern breakout

ALLT - Israeli company

Network optimization products
Computer networking stock
Average volume breakout

PLSE - Biotech/medical systems

Mid-level to low-level breakout

PONY - Chinese stock

Broke to new high, IPO from late last year

CARG (CarGurus)

Good earnings growth
Cup and handle pattern
Low volume breakout (noted but not ideal)

📊 ADAM'S SETUP STOCKS (Positioning to Break Out)

Major Cap Tech Setups

MSFT (Microsoft)

Huge move: April $344 → August $555
Now basing along 50-day moving average
Consolidating, setting up for next leg

AVGO (Broadcom)

Gap up few weeks ago on earnings
Consolidating sideways last few weeks
Setting up potential breakout

PLTR (Palantir)

Broke out today from cup-and-handle base
Light volume
$190 was high from few months ago, now $187

AMD

Big move: $76 → $186
Pulled back, built new base
Coming up right side of base, back above 50-day today

IBM

Huge cup forming, big base
High: $296, currently $286
Setting up for potential move

CRWD (CrowdStrike)

Recent high: $507.20
Cup and handle pattern
Breakout above ~$507.30 would be bullish

Retail Setups (Complements Gary's Retail Crash Theme)

WMT (Walmart)

Resistance: $105-106 area (ceiling)
Currently $101
Basing since February (tariff dip in March/April recovered)
Breakout above $106 on volume = high probability move

TJX (TJ Maxx)

High: $145.58, currently $142.49
Setting up similar to Ross/Ralph Lauren breakouts
Part of retail theme

Other Key Setups

SPOT (Spotify)

Huge move: April $475 → June $785
Pulled back, built base with cup and handle
Breakout level: $745-748.30, currently $707
Strong setup

ETN (Eaton Power Company)

Group ranked 17 out of 197 (strong)
Cup and handle forming below handle
Good setup in power sector

GLD (Gold ETF)

Was basing, broke out in September
"Just rips higher" - confirmed Gary's gold call

💡 ADAM'S KEY THEMES & METHODOLOGY

Breakout Philosophy

Bases come in all shapes/sizes: 3-12 months of consolidation
Resistance = Ceiling: Price must break above to move significantly higher
Volume Confirmation: Big institutional buying on breakouts
Most Breakouts Don't Work: That's okay with proper stops
Find Leaders: Focus on stocks making new highs, eliminate laggards

Theme Detection (Oct 2)

Retail: Ross, Ralph Lauren broke out; TJX, Walmart setting up
Steel: Steel Dynamics breakout, checking other steel names
Chemicals: DuPont breakout, looking for related names
Solar: Showing up over last few weeks
AI Stocks: Were theme few months ago
Gold: Confirmed breakout theme from September

Contrast with Gary

Adam: Technical breakouts, volume, base patterns (includes biotech/no-sales)
Gary: Fundamental sectors, economic analysis, avoid no-sales companies
Complementary Value: Adam catches technical setups Gary won't touch, Gary provides sector/economic context Adam doesn't focus on

🔥 LATEST GARY KALTBAUM UPDATE - OCTOBER 1, 2025

"GOOD GETTING GOODER, BAD GETTING BADDER"

🚨 CRITICAL MARKET ENDGAME WARNING

Gary's most explicit warning yet: "We don't want to be in a position where there's only a few games in town in the market that go vertical because that's an endgame in the market when it narrows down"

Market Action Today (Oct 1)

Dow: Up 43 (weighed down by financials)
NASDAQ: Up 95
NASDAQ 100: Up 120 (semiconductor equipment driving)
SOX (Semiconductor Index): Up 2%, 130 points

The Bifurcation Story

Gary's "I-95 analogy" - one car going north (vertical), one going south (imploding), separating by "gargantuan margin"

GOING VERTICAL (The Good Getting Gooder):

Semiconductor Equipment: "I don't think I've ever seen semiconductor equipment stocks do what they're doing"
- Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML: 3-5% daily moves
- Micron (MU), Taiwan Semi (TSM): Vertical moves
- CAVEAT: "All that spending talk better come through"
Tesla: $360-370 → $460 in 3 weeks ($100 move)
Dell Computer: Broke out today
Vertiv (data center): Broke out today
Microsoft: Trying to break recent range
NVIDIA: Edging above range

IMPLODING (The Bad Getting Badder): Gary: "They're just crumbling," "Imploding," "The bad is getting bludgeoned"

Duolingo -18%, MSCI -15%, Monday.com -9%, MercadoLibre -16%
Wix -24%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%
ServiceNow -8%, DocuSign -3%, S&P Global -5%
T-Mobile -6%, Team -10%, Zebra Tech -6%, Paycom -9%

SOCIAL MEDIA BREAKDOWN:

Meta/Facebook: Broke 50-day four days ago, down $17 to $717, further below 50-day (near $760)
Netflix: Down $28 on Elon Musk cancellation wave, "living below 50-day"

FINANCIALS "GETTING SQUIRRELY":

BlackRock -$25, Goldman Sachs -$10, JP Morgan -$4+
Morgan Stanley -$2, Wells Fargo -$3, American Express -$3
Blackstone -$3, Regional banks "rolling over"

Healthcare/Pharma Mystery Surge

Gary is "perplexed" - TrumpRx announcement caused 10-20% gains:

Eli Lilly: $725 → $825
Amgen: $274 → $298
AbbVie: $222 → $244 (10%)
Regeneron: $555 → $599 (was "murdered")
Merck: $78 → $90 (was "poster child of bear markets")
Thermo Electron: $460 → $530 in two days

Gary's Logic Problem: "If I sell a product and I have to sell it at a lower price, and I'm not going to be selling more of it, I don't know why my stock would go up"

His Theory: Mean reversion - healthcare was 9% (median 17%), tech was 34%
TrumpRx Details: Pfizer reducing Medicaid prices, $70B US R&D investment for 3-year tariff reprieve

Job Market "Withering" - Critical Economic Warning

Gary: "Job market is not in good shape" despite Trump saying "hottest economy we've ever had"

"We keep getting these job numbers. They're worsening. They're not getting better"
Starbucks shutting "ton of places" = job losses
Consumer is 70% of economy

Gary's 2-Week Warning Now Playing Out:

Airlines, cruise lines, hotels all "going south" since warning
Restaurants "crashed 50-60%" - "bunch of restaurant stocks have crashed"
Royal Caribbean (strongest): 366 → 316 "before you say boom"
Carnival: 32.5 → 28.30, Shake Shack: 144 → 91.60
Texas Roadhouse: 200 → 162, Chipotle: 58 → 39 since July
Starbucks: 117 → 84

Economic Logic (1+1=2): People losing jobs or worried will:

Skip Friday dinner out, eat in instead
Cut vacation from 10 to 6 days
Switch first class to coach
Pull back on discretionary spending

Three Weeks Until Earnings

Gary: "That'll be fun"

Critical Technical Levels

10-Year Yield: Still watching 4.2% - staying below is good
Meta 50-Day: Near $760, stock at $717
Netflix 50-Day: Stock "living below" it

🎯 GARY'S CURRENT THEMES (Oct 1)

Market Endgame Signal - Narrowing to "only a few games in town that go vertical"
Extreme Bifurcation - Winners vertical, losers imploding, "I've never seen semiconductor equipment do this"
Job Market Crisis - "Withering," validates travel/restaurant crash warnings
Financials Rolling Over - "Getting squirrely" - BlackRock, Goldman, JPM all down
Semiconductor Caveat - "All that spending talk better come through"
Healthcare Mean Reversion? - Surged 10-20% despite lower price environment
Travel/Restaurant Validation - 2-week warnings playing out perfectly

📊 CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE

Record Concentration (Still Extreme)

NASDAQ 100: 9 stocks = 70.34%
S&P 500: 8 stocks = 37%
Gary's Endgame: When it narrows to few names going vertical = endgame

Sector Weighting (Bubble Levels from Sept 29)

Technology/Communications: 34% (at 1999-2000 peak levels)
Healthcare: Was 9%, now surging (median is 17%)

Interest Rates & Commodities

10-Year Yield: Below 4.2% watch level (Gary's line in sand)
Oil: Down $2.50 - good news
Gold: Continuing parabolic trend

🟢 CURRENT LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductor Equipment - VERTICAL 🚀

AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, MU, TSM - "just about vertical with nary a stop"

Healthcare/Pharma - SURGING 📈

All major names up 10-20% on TrumpRx news (Gary perplexed why)

Select AI/Tech - BREAKOUTS

Tesla, Dell, Vertiv, Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging higher

Data Storage & Disk Drives

Strong alongside semiconductor equipment

Gold & Miners

Continuing parabolic bull move

🔴 CURRENT SECTORS TO AVOID

Tech Stocks - IMPLOSION ZONE

Software, internet, payment companies "crumbling," "imploding"

See list above (Duolingo -18%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%, etc.)

Social Media - BREAKING DOWN

Meta broke 50-day, Netflix down $28 on Musk cancellation wave

Financials - "SQUIRRELY"

BlackRock -$25, Goldman -$10, JPM -$4, regionals rolling over

Travel/Restaurants - CRASH CONFIRMED

Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse, Chipotle, Starbucks all crashing

Retail

Target still at yearly lows ($88.83 from $269 high), Lululemon crash

Consumer Staples

Food/beverage, alcohol, tobacco all in bear markets

Industrial/Transportation

Rails, truckers, UPS "big bear market", FedEx weak

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING CONTEXT (From Sept 29)

Record Market Concentration

9 stocks = 70.34% of NASDAQ 100
8 stocks = 37% of S&P 500

Climactic Top Warning

Gary: "We have a sneaking suspicion this technology move may end in some sort of climactic move like 99 and early 2000"

Timeline: "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks"
Trigger: "If we start seeing a vertical move in NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, that'll be it"

No-Sales Biotech Carnage (Sept 29)

Three companies crashed 50-90% in ONE DAY:

Moonlake Immunotherapy: $62 → $6.25 (down 90%)
IO Biotech: $1.48 → $0.36 (down 77%)
Applied Therapeutics: $1.24 → $0.61 (down 51%)

IPO Destruction Pattern

Hot IPOs crashing 50%+ within days/weeks:

Klarna, Figma, Gemini Space Station, Chime Financial, StubHub

Sector Weighting at Bubble Extremes

Tech/Communications: 34% (back to 1999-2000 levels) Healthcare: 9% (median 17%) - before recent surge

💡 CURRENT TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Gary's Positioning

Still owns "some of these things" (tech stocks)
Watching daily for market narrowing/endgame signals
Ready to sell if vertical move materializes
Bought market on confirmation day after Trump tariff crash

Critical Levels to Watch

10-Year Yield: 4.2% is the line
Meta: Needs to reclaim 50-day near $760 (currently $717)
Netflix: Below 50-day, needs to reclaim

Breakouts Today (Oct 1)

Dell Computer, Vertiv
Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging

Major Breakdowns Today (Oct 1)

Meta further below 50-day
Netflix -$28
Financials across the board

Semiconductor Equipment

Vertical move but Gary warns: "That better come through"

📅 HISTORICAL CONTEXT (Sept 15-29)

Sept 29: Climactic Top Warning Issued

Gary explicitly warned about 1999-2000 style climactic move
Three no-sales biotechs crashed 50-90% in one day
IPO carnage accelerating

Sept 24-25: Distribution Appearing

Oracle broke below $300 support (was $345 ATH Sept 10)
Leading AI names (ALAB, CRDO) showing weakness
Apple emerged as new leader
Crypto broke below 50-day moving averages

Sept 22: NVIDIA/OpenAI Breakout

NVIDIA $100B OpenAI partnership announced
Data center stocks (CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS) all moved
Gold continuing bull run (318 → 345)

Sept 19: Economic Stress Signals

Orlando/LaGuardia airports "quiet"
Vegas traffic down 12%
Central Florida housing: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days

Sept 15: Initial Warnings

Restaurant/travel stocks bearish
Oracle finding support 290-300 after gap up/drop cycle
Fed rate cut expected (20/20 times led to higher 12 months later)

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: October 1, 2025

🔥 LATEST UPDATE - OCTOBER 1, 2025

"GOOD GETTING GOODER, BAD GETTING BADDER"

🚨 CRITICAL MARKET ENDGAME WARNING

Market Action Today (Oct 1)

Dow: Up 43 (weighed down by financials)
NASDAQ: Up 95
NASDAQ 100: Up 120 (semiconductor equipment driving)
SOX (Semiconductor Index): Up 2%, 130 points

The Bifurcation Story

Gary's "I-95 analogy" - one car going north (vertical), one going south (imploding), separating by "gargantuan margin"

GOING VERTICAL (The Good Getting Gooder):

Semiconductor Equipment: "I don't think I've ever seen semiconductor equipment stocks do what they're doing"
- Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML: 3-5% daily moves
- Micron (MU), Taiwan Semi (TSM): Vertical moves
- CAVEAT: "All that spending talk better come through"
Tesla: $360-370 → $460 in 3 weeks ($100 move)
Dell Computer: Broke out today
Vertiv (data center): Broke out today
Microsoft: Trying to break recent range
NVIDIA: Edging above range

IMPLODING (The Bad Getting Badder): Gary: "They're just crumbling," "Imploding," "The bad is getting bludgeoned"

Duolingo -18%, MSCI -15%, Monday.com -9%, MercadoLibre -16%
Wix -24%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%
ServiceNow -8%, DocuSign -3%, S&P Global -5%
T-Mobile -6%, Team -10%, Zebra Tech -6%, Paycom -9%

SOCIAL MEDIA BREAKDOWN:

Meta/Facebook: Broke 50-day four days ago, down $17 to $717, further below 50-day (near $760)
Netflix: Down $28 on Elon Musk cancellation wave, "living below 50-day"

FINANCIALS "GETTING SQUIRRELY":

BlackRock -$25, Goldman Sachs -$10, JP Morgan -$4+
Morgan Stanley -$2, Wells Fargo -$3, American Express -$3
Blackstone -$3, Regional banks "rolling over"

Healthcare/Pharma Mystery Surge

Gary is "perplexed" - TrumpRx announcement caused 10-20% gains:

Eli Lilly: $725 → $825
Amgen: $274 → $298
AbbVie: $222 → $244 (10%)
Regeneron: $555 → $599 (was "murdered")
Merck: $78 → $90 (was "poster child of bear markets")
Thermo Electron: $460 → $530 in two days

Gary's Logic Problem: "If I sell a product and I have to sell it at a lower price, and I'm not going to be selling more of it, I don't know why my stock would go up"

His Theory: Mean reversion - healthcare was 9% (median 17%), tech was 34%
TrumpRx Details: Pfizer reducing Medicaid prices, $70B US R&D investment for 3-year tariff reprieve

Job Market "Withering" - Critical Economic Warning

Gary: "Job market is not in good shape" despite Trump saying "hottest economy we've ever had"

"We keep getting these job numbers. They're worsening. They're not getting better"
Starbucks shutting "ton of places" = job losses
Consumer is 70% of economy

Gary's 2-Week Warning Now Playing Out:

Airlines, cruise lines, hotels all "going south" since warning
Restaurants "crashed 50-60%" - "bunch of restaurant stocks have crashed"
Royal Caribbean (strongest): 366 → 316 "before you say boom"
Carnival: 32.5 → 28.30, Shake Shack: 144 → 91.60
Texas Roadhouse: 200 → 162, Chipotle: 58 → 39 since July
Starbucks: 117 → 84

Economic Logic (1+1=2): People losing jobs or worried will:

Skip Friday dinner out, eat in instead
Cut vacation from 10 to 6 days
Switch first class to coach
Pull back on discretionary spending

Three Weeks Until Earnings

Gary: "That'll be fun"

Critical Technical Levels

10-Year Yield: Still watching 4.2% - staying below is good
Meta 50-Day: Near $760, stock at $717
Netflix 50-Day: Stock "living below" it

🎯 GARY'S CURRENT THEMES (Oct 1)

Market Endgame Signal - Narrowing to "only a few games in town that go vertical"
Extreme Bifurcation - Winners vertical, losers imploding, "I've never seen semiconductor equipment do this"
Job Market Crisis - "Withering," validates travel/restaurant crash warnings
Financials Rolling Over - "Getting squirrely" - BlackRock, Goldman, JPM all down
Semiconductor Caveat - "All that spending talk better come through"
Healthcare Mean Reversion? - Surged 10-20% despite lower price environment
Travel/Restaurant Validation - 2-week warnings playing out perfectly

📊 CURRENT MARKET STRUCTURE

Record Concentration (Still Extreme)

NASDAQ 100: 9 stocks = 70.34%
S&P 500: 8 stocks = 37%
Gary's Endgame: When it narrows to few names going vertical = endgame

Sector Weighting (Bubble Levels from Sept 29)

Technology/Communications: 34% (at 1999-2000 peak levels)
Healthcare: Was 9%, now surging (median is 17%)

Interest Rates & Commodities

10-Year Yield: Below 4.2% watch level (Gary's line in sand)
Oil: Down $2.50 - good news
Gold: Continuing parabolic trend

🟢 CURRENT LEADING SECTORS

Semiconductor Equipment - VERTICAL 🚀

AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, MU, TSM - "just about vertical with nary a stop"

Healthcare/Pharma - SURGING 📈

All major names up 10-20% on TrumpRx news (Gary perplexed why)

Select AI/Tech - BREAKOUTS

Tesla, Dell, Vertiv, Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging higher

Data Storage & Disk Drives

Strong alongside semiconductor equipment

Gold & Miners

Continuing parabolic bull move

🔴 CURRENT SECTORS TO AVOID

Tech Stocks - IMPLOSION ZONE

Software, internet, payment companies "crumbling," "imploding"

See list above (Duolingo -18%, HubSpot -27%, Reddit -27%, etc.)

Social Media - BREAKING DOWN

Meta broke 50-day, Netflix down $28 on Musk cancellation wave

Financials - "SQUIRRELY"

BlackRock -$25, Goldman -$10, JPM -$4, regionals rolling over

Travel/Restaurants - CRASH CONFIRMED

Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse, Chipotle, Starbucks all crashing

Retail

Target still at yearly lows ($88.83 from $269 high), Lululemon crash

Consumer Staples

Food/beverage, alcohol, tobacco all in bear markets

Industrial/Transportation

Rails, truckers, UPS "big bear market", FedEx weak

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING CONTEXT (From Sept 29)

Record Market Concentration

9 stocks = 70.34% of NASDAQ 100
8 stocks = 37% of S&P 500

Climactic Top Warning

Gary: "We have a sneaking suspicion this technology move may end in some sort of climactic move like 99 and early 2000"

Timeline: "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks"
Trigger: "If we start seeing a vertical move in NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, that'll be it"

No-Sales Biotech Carnage (Sept 29)

Three companies crashed 50-90% in ONE DAY:

Moonlake Immunotherapy: $62 → $6.25 (down 90%)
IO Biotech: $1.48 → $0.36 (down 77%)
Applied Therapeutics: $1.24 → $0.61 (down 51%)

IPO Destruction Pattern

Hot IPOs crashing 50%+ within days/weeks:

Klarna, Figma, Gemini Space Station, Chime Financial, StubHub

Sector Weighting at Bubble Extremes

Tech/Communications: 34% (back to 1999-2000 levels) Healthcare: 9% (median 17%) - before recent surge

💡 CURRENT TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Gary's Positioning

Still owns "some of these things" (tech stocks)
Watching daily for market narrowing/endgame signals
Ready to sell if vertical move materializes
Bought market on confirmation day after Trump tariff crash

Critical Levels to Watch

10-Year Yield: 4.2% is the line
Meta: Needs to reclaim 50-day near $760 (currently $717)
Netflix: Below 50-day, needs to reclaim

Breakouts Today (Oct 1)

Dell Computer, Vertiv
Microsoft attempting, NVIDIA edging

Major Breakdowns Today (Oct 1)

Meta further below 50-day
Netflix -$28
Financials across the board

Semiconductor Equipment

Vertical move but Gary warns: "That better come through"

📅 HISTORICAL CONTEXT (Sept 15-29)

Sept 29: Climactic Top Warning Issued

Gary explicitly warned about 1999-2000 style climactic move
Three no-sales biotechs crashed 50-90% in one day
IPO carnage accelerating

Sept 24-25: Distribution Appearing

Oracle broke below $300 support (was $345 ATH Sept 10)
Leading AI names (ALAB, CRDO) showing weakness
Apple emerged as new leader
Crypto broke below 50-day moving averages

Sept 22: NVIDIA/OpenAI Breakout

NVIDIA $100B OpenAI partnership announced
Data center stocks (CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS) all moved
Gold continuing bull run (318 → 345)

Sept 19: Economic Stress Signals

Orlando/LaGuardia airports "quiet"
Vegas traffic down 12%
Central Florida housing: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days

Sept 15: Initial Warnings

Restaurant/travel stocks bearish
Oracle finding support 290-300 after gap up/drop cycle
Fed rate cut expected (20/20 times led to higher 12 months later)

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

Monday, September 29, 2025

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 29, 2025

🎯 GARY'S KEY THEMES (Updated Sept 29)

CLIMACTIC TOP WARNING - "We have a sneaking suspicion this technology move may end in some sort of climactic move like 99 and early 2000"
Record Market Concentration - 9 stocks = 70.34% of NASDAQ 100, 8 stocks = 37% of S&P 500 (record levels)
Sector Weighting at Bubble Levels - Technology/communications at 34% (back to 1999-2000 levels), healthcare down to 9% (median is 17%)
Mean Reversion Coming - "Eventually this will go back to the norm. Always has, always will"
No-Sales Biotech Carnage - Three companies down 50-90% in ONE DAY, Gary "really pissed off" at analyst buy ratings
IPO Destruction Continues - Hot IPOs crashing 50%+ within days/weeks of opening
Avoid List Still Expanding - Travel topping confirmed, retail crashing (Target new yearly lows)

Gary's Big Picture: Market showing classic bubble top characteristics with record concentration and sector weighting at 1999-2000 levels. He's positioned for potential climactic move but ready to sell into it. "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks. It wasn't today. It won't be tomorrow."

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS CRITICAL LEVEL (Sept 29)

Biotech Crashes - The Proof Is Here

Moonlake Immunotherapy: $62 → $6.25 (down 90% in ONE DAY) - no sales, came out as SPAC in 2020
IO Biotech: $1.48 → $0.36 (down 77% in ONE DAY) - no sales biotech, came out at $14 in 2021
Applied Therapeutics: $1.24 → $0.61 (down 51% in ONE DAY) - was $59 in 2019, no sales
Analyst Response: Downgrades from "buy" to "hold" or "neutral" AFTER 90% crash - Gary "really pissed off"

IPO Carnage Accelerating

Klarna (KLAR): $40 deal, opened $57 → $38 in 2.5 weeks
Figma: $33 deal, hit $142 in one day → $53 four weeks later
Gemini Space Station: $28 deal, opened $46 → $24 in 9 days (nearly 50%)
Chime Financial: $27 deal, opened $44 → $20 (more than 50%)
StubHub: $23.50 deal, opened $28 → $17.26 in 8 days
Pattern: Gary has "about 15 others" showing same crash pattern

Record Market Concentration

NASDAQ 100: 9 stocks = 70.34%, leaving 91 stocks at less than 30%
S&P 500: 8 stocks = almost 37%, leaving 492 stocks at only 63%
Equal Weight Context: Each stock should be 0.2% if equal weighted, but only 94 stocks above 2%, 406 below
Gary's Take: "Record concentration in the market"

Sector Weighting at 1999-2000 Bubble Levels

Technology/Communications: Now at 34% (back to 1999-2000 peak levels)
Healthcare: Down to 9% (median is 17%)
Valuation Example: Palantir $400 billion market cap with $3 billion in sales
Mean Reversion Warning: "If the market reverts to the mean, there's going to be one hell of a drop in technology and communication stocks"

Climactic Top Indicators

Gary's explicit warning: "We have a sneaking suspicion this technology move may end in some sort of climactic move like 99 and early 2000. If it does, we will be thrilled and hope to be smart enough to sell into it while everybody else is in a lather."

Timeline: "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks"
Trigger: "If we start seeing a vertical move in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, that'll be it"

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS INTENSIFYING

Oil Prices: "Ticking up" past couple days (Gary very concerned)
Food Inflation: Hershey bags $11.99→$16.99, coffee up, chip bags smaller
Yield/Energy Double Threat: Both rising simultaneously - major cost pressure

Real-World Observations (Sept 19):

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 29) - CLIMBING THE WALL

Dow: Up 68 (Caterpillar +6, NVIDIA +3.50, Microsoft +3.50, IBM -4.50)
S&P: Up 17
NASDAQ: Up 107
NASDAQ 100: Up 107

Record Concentration Metrics

NASDAQ 100: 9 stocks = 70.34% (91 stocks = less than 30%)
S&P 500: 8 stocks = 37% (492 stocks = 63%)
Equal Weight Analysis: Only 94 of 500 stocks above 2% weight (should be 0.2% each if equal)
Half the S&P: 250 stocks represent tiny fraction of index value

Sector Weighting - AT BUBBLE EXTREMES

Technology/Communications: 34% (back to 1999-2000 levels, well above historical average)
Healthcare: 9% (median is 17% - massively underweighted)
Gary's Warning: Mean reversion will cause "one hell of a drop" in tech, "one heck of a rally" in healthcare

Interest Rates & Commodities

10-Year Yield: Came down today (good news), watch 4.2% level - "move above 4.2, you'll hear from me"
Oil: Down $2.50 today (good news)
Gold: 352 (up from 318 breakout four weeks ago) - "no respite, just another new high"
Silver: Also making new highs

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Retail - CRASH ACCELERATING 🔴

Target: All-time high $269 → $88.83 (new yearly low), sales down, earnings down 20% last quarter, 36% quarter before
Gary's Comparison: "Walmart is filet mignon, Target is spam"
Lululemon: "Crash" mentioned specifically
Definable Downtrends: Many retail names in clear bear markets

Travel & Consumer TOPPING CONFIRMED 🔴

Cruise Lines: "Look like they've topped" - Carnival gapped up, sold off heavy volume, Royal Caribbean below 50-day
Hotels: "Just letting you know" - weakness continuing
Restaurants: "Bearish" - McDonald's in Dow, Kava Group 172→58 since November
Gary's Warning: "Not 100% sure but evidence in today, they've got a little mallet over their head"

Healthcare & Biotech - DISASTER ZONE 🔴

Big Biotech: Amgen in Dow "week," most drug stocks "bearish"
Three Biotechs Crashed 50-90% Today: Moonlake, IO Biotech, Applied Therapeutics (all no-sales)
Medical Research/Products: "A lot of them, bearish trend"
XLV (Healthcare ETF): "Very weak"
Big Pharma: Bristol-Myers bearish, Eli Lilly "bearish" (despite hype), Merck "big bear"

Consumer Staples/Products BROAD BEAR MARKETS

Food & Beverage: "Bearish"
Alcohol: "Big bear market" - less consumption across the board
Tobacco: "Getting hit too" (was holding up)
Household Products: Procter & Gamble in Dow - "bear markets, bearish"
Consumer Staples: Broad weakness across entire sector

Industrial & Transportation - PERSISTENT WEAKNESS

Rails: Most in bad shape (except Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger)
Truckers: "Pretty much bearish" - Old Dominion Freight weak
UPS: "Big bear market" - "don't you dare look"
Boeing: In Dow, "looks like it's topped"
Honeywell: In Dow, weak

Financial Services & Insurance

Insurance: "Pretty much downtrends, bearish"
Salesforce: In Dow, "big bear market"

Other Sectors

Furniture: Got hit on tariff news
Oil: "Very mixed" - few at new highs, plenty at new lows

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - STRONG BUT EXTENDED 📈

AI Semiconductors: "Good day" - out of the chute strong
Semiconductors: "Not the semiconductors" (in avoid list) - meaning they're FINE
NVIDIA: Up $3.50
Microsoft: Up $3.50
IBM: Down $4.50 (after quantum rally last week)

Emerging Leaders - NEW RELATIVE STRENGTH

Carvana: "Very good relative strength and potentially good patterns"
DoorDash: Strong day, good relative strength
Shopify: Up $9 to $149 on AI/ChatGPT payment news with Etsy
Etsy: Up $10 to $74 on Shopify partnership
AppLovin (APP): Strong day
Robinhood: Up 11% (attaches to Bitcoin), up another 1% aftermarket
TKO (owns WWE): Strong day
Roblox: Strong day (Electronic Arts going private for $50B helped sector)
Take-Two Interactive: Up nicely

Financials - ROCK SOLID

Big Banks: "Not the big banks" (in avoid list) - meaning they're FINE
Goldman Sachs: "Certainly not Goldman Sachs" - strong
JP Morgan: "Certainly not JP Morgan" - strong
Financials Broad: "Not the financials" - meaning they're working

Gold & Miners - PARABOLIC MOVE 🚀

Gold: 318 breakout → 352 in four weeks, "no respite, just another new high"
Silver: Also making new highs
Gold Miners: "Even much stronger" than gold - broke out first (bullish signal)
Gary's Take: "Dang, this move has been bullish as all hell"

Chinese Stocks

Broad Strength: "Not Chinese names" (in avoid list) - meaning they're working

Crypto - STRONG BOUNCE

Bitcoin: "Real strong bounce" - still below 50-day but "today we'll go a long way" to getting back above
Ethereum: "Bounce too, not as strong" - brought related names along
Note: Still below 50-day moving averages but showing life

Other Strong Areas

Marijuana Stocks: Strong day on presidential CBD/marijuana benefits post
One Biotech Bought Out: Meris (MRUS) up 36%, bought for $6.5B despite little sales/big losses

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

Distribution continuing Sept 25 - weakness expanding beyond initial warnings
Fed policy expectations shifting (new Fed member wants 2% Fed funds)
Concentration risk at extreme levels (10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500)

Watch List

Small Cap: Russell 2000 - Gary took cautious position after previous stops
International: Selective opportunities may emerge
Defensive: May become leadership if growth concentration fails

💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS (Sept 29)

Gary's Active Positions & Trades

Bought market on confirmation day after Trump tariff crash
Owns "some of these things" (tech stocks) but ready to sell into climactic move
Watching 10 stocks daily - if they go bear market, indices follow
Russell 2000: Still holding small position from previous entry

Critical Technical Levels to Watch

10-Year Yield: 4.2% is the line - "A move above 4.2, you'll hear from me. Staying below good, getting above potentially not so good"
Bitcoin: Still below 50-day, needs to reclaim
Ethereum: Still below 50-day, needs to reclaim
Cruise Lines: Watching for confirmation of tops (Carnival, Royal Caribbean)

Stocks with New Relative Strength

Not buy recommendations - just noting patterns:

Carvana, DoorDash, AppleOven (APO), Shopify, Etsy, Robinhood, TKO, Roblox, Take-Two Interactive

Oracle Update

No specific mention in Sept 29 show after breaking $300 support earlier

Gary's Climactic Top Strategy

Timeline: "Could be three years, two years, one year, six weeks. It wasn't today. It won't be tomorrow"
Trigger: "If we start seeing a vertical move in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, that'll be it"
Plan: "We will be thrilled and hope to be smart enough to sell into it while everybody else is in a lather"
Preparation: "We've done some exhaustive studies on this. Don't be left holding the bag"

Target vs Walmart - Case Study

Gary uses Target as cautionary tale:

Target: All-time high $269 → $88.83 (new yearly lows), sales down, earnings down 20-36%
Walmart: "Filet mignon" - strong
Lesson: "Go take Target's chart and overlay it on Walmart" - shows importance of avoiding weak sectors

Wall Street Criticism

Gary "really pissed off" about:

Analyst buy recommendations on no-sales companies that crashed 50-90%
Downgrades from "buy" to "hold/neutral" AFTER 90% crash
IPO firms opening deals hot then watching them crash 50%+
"Investment bankers, the big names are just putting out crap"

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaltbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 25, 2025

🎯 GARY'S KEY THEMES (Updated Sept 25)

"Avoid List" Rapidly Expanding - Weakness spreading from restaurants/travel to healthcare, biotech, insurance, crypto
Sector Contagion Pattern - "If anything gets better, we'll tell you. If anything worsens, we'll tell you"
Market Concentration Still Driving - Apple up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
Real-Time Approach - Gary bought/sold Apple for $0.20 profit, took small Russell 2000 position
Technical Levels Matter - Oracle breaking $300, crypto below 50-day moving averages decisive
Selective Strength Remains - "Banks remain fine, semiconductors remain fine" but growth leaders extended

Gary's Big Picture: The avoid list is expanding rapidly as weakness spreads beyond his original restaurant/travel warnings. Still finding selective opportunities but being very tactical with entries and exits.

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS ESCALATING (Sept 24)

"1999 Characteristics Showing Up"

No-Sales Mania Continues: "Too many no-sales companies skyrocket"
Lithium Americas: Up 96% today on government news, NO SALES, Canadian company
Vendor Financing Expanding: Gary seeing more cases of companies investing in customers
AI Spending Numbers: "Gargantuan" predictions - "They better do those numbers"

Gary's Historical Warnings

1999 Parallels: Companies adding ".com" to names, mutual funds changing to "internet funds"
Famous Person's Picks: "10 stocks for future, 8 of 10 had no sales, all blew up"
87 Crash Study: Gary studied crashes, believes in watching what breaks down first

Market Distribution Signs

Leading Names Softening: ALAB, CRDO showing business weakness
Some No-Sales Names: "Clipped 10% today" after big runs
NVIDIA: Giving back Monday's breakout gains (vendor financing concerns?)

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS INTENSIFYING

Oil Prices: "Ticking up" past couple days (Gary very concerned)
Food Inflation: Hershey bags $11.99→$16.99, coffee up, chip bags smaller
Yield/Energy Double Threat: Both rising simultaneously - major cost pressure

Real-World Observations (Sept 19):

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 25) - DISTRIBUTION CONTINUING

Market Concentration: 10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500 (up from 40%)
- Gary's Warning: "490 stocks are 59%" - extreme concentration risk
Apple: Up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
Russell 2000: Gary took small position, down 1% (cautious after getting stopped out twice last year)

Interest Rate Alarm

10-Year Treasury: 4.147% (highest since Fed cut)
Gary's Concern: Rising yields + rising oil = "two most important costs"
Fed Expectations: New Fed member wants 2% Fed funds (currently 4%)
Inflation Signs: Electricity up, food up, package shrinkflation continues

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Travel & Consumer CONFIRMED BEAR MARKETS 🔴

Restaurants: "In bearish phase, bear market, downtrend" - Gary's strongest language yet
- Chipotle: 67→39, Starbucks: 117→83 (closing stores, CEO says "price doesn't matter")
Hotels: "A lot of tops in place" - Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott all topped
Airlines: Continuing weakness - Alaska Air, SkyWest, Delta, American topped
Cruise Lines: Getting weaker
Retail: Continued weakness

Healthcare - MAJOR EXPANSION 🔴

Big Biotech: "Just think they're avoids"
Medical Products & Research: "Bearish" - new category added
Intuitive Surgical: "Past leader, just absolutely destroyed"
Managed Care: UnitedHealth better, but "others stinking up the joint"
Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly still weak

Financial Services - MIXED SIGNALS

Banks: "Remain fine" - one of few bright spots
Insurance: "A lot of insurance stocks, plain old avoids" (expanded weakness)
Private Equity: Continued weakness from prior sessions

Industrial & Utilities - EXPANDING WEAKNESS

Waste Management: "Avoids" - garbage collectors weak
Rails & Truckers: "Most of them avoids" (despite Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger)
Economic Sensitive: WW Granger (tools/lighting/plumbing) "bear market"
Bright Spots: United Rentals strong, Caterpillar strong

Crypto - MAJOR BREAKDOWN 🔴

Bitcoin: Below 50-day moving average, concerning
Ethereum: Down 20% from recent high, "gap down Monday, broke 50-day"
Bitcoin ETFs: IBIT critical level $61.31, GBTC critical level $84.78
MicroStrategy: Down $23, "breaking support levels, much weaker than actual Bitcoin"
Gary's Rule: "Avoid until back above 50-day moving average"

Consumer Staples BEAR MARKETS

Food & Beverage: Confirmed bear market, Coke, Pepsi, Dr Pepper
Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
Tobacco: "Getting hit too" (new weakness)
XLP (Staples ETF): "Not good"

Housing & Interest Rate Sensitive

Housing Stocks: "Another bad day" as rates tick up again
REITs: Under pressure from rising rates

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - SELECTIVE STRENGTH 📈

Apple: STANDOUT - up $4 in "crappy NASDAQ," only $4 from old highs
- Gary bought recently, sold for $0.20 profit, will re-enter if needed
- "Quite compelling" action, talk of better sales
Banks: "Remain fine" - holding up well
Semiconductors: "Remain fine" - still in good shape
Oracle: BREAKDOWN - down $17, broke below key $300 level "not thrilling"
- Someone issued rare "sell rating" on the stock
Growth Leaders: "Pulled back harshly" but "only because they got extended"

Small Cap Opportunity

Russell 2000: Gary took small position despite recent breakout pullback
- "We got stopped out twice last year... we just bought a little bit, down 1%"
- Cautious position sizing after previous failures

Commodities - MIXED/CONCERNING

Gold: Some pullback but still in bull trend from 18-week breakout
Oil: Ticking up - Gary's big concern with yields also rising
Bitcoin/Crypto: Bounced previously but now below key moving averages

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

Distribution continuing Sept 25 - weakness expanding beyond initial warnings
Fed policy expectations shifting (new Fed member wants 2% Fed funds)
Concentration risk at extreme levels (10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500)

Watch List

Small Cap: Russell 2000 - Gary took cautious position after previous stops
International: Selective opportunities may emerge
Defensive: May become leadership if growth concentration fails

💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Oracle (ORCL) - BREAKDOWN BELOW SUPPORT: Trading below $300 (Sept 25)

Critical Development: Broke below Gary's key $300 level he was watching
Previous Path: $345 ATH (Sept 10) → $327 (Sept 22) → $306-308 → NOW below $300
Gary's Assessment: "Not thrilling, not great" - received rare analyst "sell rating"
Setup Status: No longer a setup after breaking key support

Apple (AAPL) - NEW LEADERSHIP: Up $4 in weak market (Sept 25)

Status: Only $4 from old highs, showing relative strength
Gary's Action: Bought recently, sold for $0.20 profit, will re-enter if needed
Assessment: "Quite compelling" action with better sales talk

Russell 2000 (Small Caps): Gary took small position despite pullback

History: Got stopped out twice last year on breakout attempts
Current: Down 1% on small position, "not end of world yet"
Strategy: Small position sizing given previous failures

Crypto - AVOID ZONE: All major cryptos below 50-day moving averages

Bitcoin: Below 50-day, needs to reclaim to be buyable
Ethereum: Down 20% from recent high, gap down Monday
Critical Levels: IBIT $61.31, GBTC $84.78 - breaks below would "worsen things"
MicroStrategy: Down $23, "breaking support levels"

Current Broad Market: "Crappy NASDAQ" but Apple showing strength, banks and semis still fine

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaltbaum show analysis]

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaultbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 24, 2025

🎯 GARY'S KEY THEMES (Updated Sept 24)

Market Concentration Risk - 10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500. "Imagine if those 10 go into bear market"
1999 Bubble Conditions Accelerating - "Too many no-sales companies skyrocket," government picking winners
Distribution Appearing - Leading names (ALAB, CRDO) showing weakness after earnings strength
Vendor Financing Epidemic - More companies investing in customers who buy their products
Double Cost Threat - Rising yields + rising oil = "two most important costs" both increasing
Government Overreach - "Socialist" policies with lithium stakes, mining funds setting precedent
Real-Time Focus - "Only thing that matters is real time, not what may or may not happen"

Gary's Big Picture: Still seeing 1999 characteristics but focusing on what's breaking down in real-time. Market showing some distribution but not decisive yet. Very concerned about cost pressures (energy + rates) building.

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS ESCALATING (Sept 24)

"1999 Characteristics Showing Up"

No-Sales Mania Continues: "Too many no-sales companies skyrocket"
Lithium Americas: Up 96% today on government news, NO SALES, Canadian company
Vendor Financing Expanding: Gary seeing more cases of companies investing in customers
AI Spending Numbers: "Gargantuan" predictions - "They better do those numbers"

Gary's Historical Warnings

1999 Parallels: Companies adding ".com" to names, mutual funds changing to "internet funds"
Famous Person's Picks: "10 stocks for future, 8 of 10 had no sales, all blew up"
87 Crash Study: Gary studied crashes, believes in watching what breaks down first

Market Distribution Signs

Leading Names Softening: ALAB, CRDO showing business weakness
Some No-Sales Names: "Clipped 10% today" after big runs
NVIDIA: Giving back Monday's breakout gains (vendor financing concerns?)

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS INTENSIFYING

Oil Prices: "Ticking up" past couple days (Gary very concerned)
Food Inflation: Hershey bags $11.99→$16.99, coffee up, chip bags smaller
Yield/Energy Double Threat: Both rising simultaneously - major cost pressure

Real-World Observations (Sept 19):

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 24) - DISTRIBUTION DAY

Dow: Down 171 (Goldman -$14, IBM -$5, JPMorgan only bright spot)
S&P: Down 19
NASDAQ: Down 75 (was down 175 intraday - some recovery)
Russell 2000: Down ~1% (still weak)
Market Concentration: 10 stocks now 41% of S&P 500 (up from 40%)
- Gary's Warning: "490 stocks are 59%" - extreme concentration risk

Interest Rate Alarm

10-Year Treasury: 4.147% (highest since Fed cut)
Gary's Concern: Rising yields + rising oil = "two most important costs"
Fed Expectations: New Fed member wants 2% Fed funds (currently 4%)
Inflation Signs: Electricity up, food up, package shrinkflation continues

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Travel & Consumer TOPPING OUT 🔴

Hotels: Major chains topping out - Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott all topped
Airlines: Widespread topping - Alaska Air, SkyWest, Delta, American topped
- United "still looks okay" (only one holding up)
Restaurants: "Another bad day" - wants you "as far away as possible"
Retail: "Acting like the south end of a northbound jackass"

Consumer Staples BEAR MARKETS

Food & Beverage: Confirmed bear market, Coke, Pepsi, Dr Pepper
Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
Tobacco: "Getting hit too" (new weakness)
XLP (Staples ETF): "Not good"

Industrial & Transportation WORSENING

Rails & Truckers: Still "pitiful"
Shipping: UPS (definitely weak), FedEx (not as bad but weak)
Airlines: "Little roughed up again today" - getting weaker
Cruise Lines: Getting weaker

Financial Services BROAD WEAKNESS

Major Banks: Goldman Sachs down $14, most banks weaker
- JPMorgan only exception (up, helps Dow)
Private Equity: Major selloff - KKR, Evercore, Blackstone, Apollo all hit 5-7%
Exchanges: CME Group, CBOE, ICE - bearish phases

Healthcare & Biotech

Biotech: "Very weak" (Sept 19 update)
Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly
Medical Devices: Intuitive Surgical (616 → 434)
Insurance: UnitedHealth bounced but others weak

Housing & Interest Rate Sensitive

Housing Stocks: "Another bad day" as rates tick up again
REITs: Under pressure from rising rates

Other Weak Areas

Waste Management: Bear markets
Payroll Processing: ADP, Paychecks - bearish phases
Oil: Still weak, though not as bad as before

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - SHOWING SOME DISTRIBUTION ⚠️

NVIDIA: Giving back gains after Monday's breakout, "almost hit it all back" (only down 2-3%)
Microsoft: "Come in after gapping up," sitting at 50-day MA (still okay but watching)
Amazon: "Near term breakdown yesterday" (top 10 S&P name showing weakness)
Netflix: "Under distribution" (top 20 name, some weakness)
Tesla: STILL STRONG - up another $17, "headed for old highs"
Apple: Holding gains, still in uptrend
Oracle: Maintaining strength from breakout

AI Infrastructure - MIXED SIGNALS

Leading Names Pulled Back: ALAB down $25 (11%), CRDO down 8%
- Reason: "Softening in their business" - these were very strong earnings names
Data Storage: Some pullback in extended names after big run
Contract Manufacturers: "Hit today" after being strong
Micron: Good earnings, up 10% aftermarket despite finishing down 5%

Government/Mining - NEW THEME

Lithium: Lithium Americas up 96% on government stake news (NO SALES company)
Mining: $5B government fund announced, SCCO up $9, FCX down $7
Gary's Concern: "Socialist" government ownership of companies setting precedent

Commodities - MIXED/CONCERNING

Gold: Pulled back today (not major), still in bull trend
Oil: Ticking up - Gary's big concern with yields also rising
- "Cost of capital and energy are the two most important costs"
Bitcoin/Crypto: Bounced, Bitcoin miners still strong

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

Distribution day Sept 24 - first real selling pressure in leading names
Fed policy expectations shifting (new Fed member wants 2% Fed funds)
Concentration risk at extreme levels (10 stocks = 41% of S&P 500)

Watch List

Small Cap: Russell 2000 still weak, waiting for rotation
International: China stocks bounced on Alibaba AI news
Defensive: May become leadership if growth falters

💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Oracle (ORCL) - CURRENT STATUS: Trading ~$306-308 (Sept 24)

Recent Path: $345 ATH (Sept 10) → $327 (Sept 22 pop) → $313.83 close → $306-308 current
Key Levels: Still above Gary's original 290-300 support zone, but showing weakness
News: Raising $15B in bonds for AI buildout, analyst targets avg $319
Gary's Take: May be seeing distribution after explosive moves

NVIDIA (NVDA): Giving back OpenAI partnership gains, vendor financing concerns growing

Data Center Construction/Energy: Still setting up but watching for follow-through - CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS

Apple (AAPL): Holding strength, Gary admits missing technical break he flagged

Gold/Miners: 18-week breakout thesis successful - GLD (318→345), some pullback but trend intact

Current Market: Distribution day Sept 24, leading names showing fatigue after big runs

Monday, September 22, 2025

Market Sector & Stock Tracker

Last Updated: September 22, 2025 - CNBC Transcript

Date: September 22, 2025 Key Quote: "There's like no partner but NVIDIA that could do this at this kind of scale, at this kind of speed" - Sam Altman

🚀 LEADING SECTORS (Strong Performance)

AI Infrastructure & Semiconductors ⭐⭐⭐

Status: Leading the market, driving Nasdaq to records

Key Players & Performance:

NVIDIA (NVDA): +4% daily, ATH, added $145B market cap
- 90-95% GPU market share dominance
- OpenAI "preferred compute partner"
- $100B+ AI infrastructure deal announced
AMD: +1.5% (benefiting from AI chip supply constraints)
TSMC: +3% (chip contractor/manufacturer)

Catalysts:

Massive AI compute demand outstripping supply
OpenAI partnership deals
"Biggest AI infrastructure project in history"

Data Centers & Cloud Infrastructure

Status: Strong momentum on AI demand

Key Players:

Equinix: +1%+
DLR (Digital Realty): +1%+
Dell: +2.5% (server assemblers)
Supermicro: +2.5% (server assemblers)

Consumer Tech (Apple)

Status: Strong recent momentum

Key Players:

Apple (AAPL): +4% daily, +8% over 5 days, turned positive for year
- iPhone 17 early indicators better than iPhone 16
- AI strategy still challenged but potential OpenAI partnerships

⚠️ SECTORS TO WATCH/POTENTIAL CONCERNS

Broadcom

Status: Under pressure despite AI exposure

Broadcom: -2% (concerns NVIDIA deal may limit future OpenAI share)
Had surged earlier on $10B AI chip order from OpenAI
Market questioning future role vs. NVIDIA dominance

📊 KEY MARKET THEMES & INSIGHTS

AI Infrastructure Boom

Compute constraints creating massive opportunity
Demand far exceeding current capacity across industry
Sam Altman: "We're so limited right now in the services we can offer"
Jensen Huang: "Largest computing project in history"

Market Cap Impact

NVIDIA added ~$145B market cap in one day (size of Capital One)
NVIDIA + Microsoft = largest public companies at $4T+ each

Competition Dynamics

NVIDIA maintaining 90-95% GPU market dominance
Cloud service providers developing own XPUs (custom chips)
AMD, Intel, Google TPUs gaining some traction
Room for multiple players given massive demand

🎯 SECTORS SETTING UP

Cloud Service Providers (NeoClouds)

CoreWeave, Nebulous, Lambda mentioned as specialized GPU providers
NVIDIA investor in these companies
Potential beneficiaries of infrastructure build-out

Industrial AI

Broad theme: AI touching every industry and company
Expanding compute needs across all sectors

📋 TRACKING METHODOLOGY

Sources:

CNBC Halftime Report/Closing Bell
Gary Kaultbaum Show (pending)
Dr. Boyce Watkins (pending)
Other financial media clips

Update Frequency: After each new clip/show Focus Areas: Sector rotation, momentum shifts, setup opportunities

📝 NOTES FROM TRANSCRIPT

Date: September 22, 2025 Key Quote: "There's like no partner but NVIDIA that could do this at this kind of scale, at this kind of speed" - Sam Altman

Analyst Insight: Pat Moorhead noting NVIDIA's strategic capacity locks with OpenAI in competitive environment

Dr. Boyce Watkins Market Insights Tracker

Episode: September 22, 2025

MARKET OUTLOOK ⚠️

Overall Assessment: Market is "really, really high"
Risk Warning: "Bright day can turn into dark day in seconds"
Advice: Protect investments, don't get too comfortable

OKLO UPDATE 🔥

Current Price: ~$137 (up from $135 previous day) Status: "The new NVIDIA" but key difference - "NVIDIA makes money, OKLO doesn't" Thesis Unchanged:

AI energy demand
Small modular reactors
Sam Altman/Trump connections
"Good hype with good thesis"

⚠️ ENTRY WARNING: "Should you buy now? Nobody knows"

ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY

Key Theme: Stock market democratization as solution to corporate exploitation

Anyone can buy S&P 500 and own pieces of wealth-generating companies
Inflation Strategy: Rich people benefit from inflation through asset ownership
- Example: Lose $100 at grocery store, make $1,000 in stocks
- Real estate values rise with general price increases
Economic Education: Change children's relationship to money early

Episode: September 21, 2025

LEADING SECTORS

Nuclear/Clean Energy 🔥

Primary Driver: AI energy demand creating shortage
Government Support: Strong institutional backing
Key Theme: Small modular reactors (SMRs) for AI infrastructure

Uranium 🔥

Driver: Expected shortage and higher demand from AI
Performance: Strong institutional acknowledgment of supply constraints

Energy (Traditional) 📈

Theme: "Energy from any and every way they can"
Government Support: Key driver of economic activity

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

OKLO - Nuclear Power Company

Current Price: $135 (was $8 a few months ago - 1,587% gain) Position: Dr. Watkins owns, selling call options

🚀 BULL CASE:

AI driving clean energy demand
Strong government/institutional support (Trump connection)
Recurring revenue model (sells electricity under long-term contracts)
Advanced fuel recycling technology
Fast reactor design with liquid metal cooling
Beyond hardware sales - utility-like business model

⚠️ BEAR CASE:

Execution Risk: Pre-revenue company, no commercial plants yet
Regulatory Risk: Slow nuclear regulation, past license applications denied
Technical Risk: Supply chain constraints for specialized uranium
Financial Risk: High capital requirements for reactor construction
Competition: Other SMR companies, renewable alternatives
Valuation Risk: "Probably overvalued" - market in "irrational exuberance"

Strategy: Selling deep out-of-money call options, prepared for pullback

URA - Uranium ETF

Performance: +75% YTD Position: Dr. Watkins owns Thesis: Uranium shortage due to AI energy demands

METC - Ramaco Resources (Coal)

Performance: +184% YTD, +197% over last year Location: Lexington, Kentucky Position: Recently bought, plans to sell options Thesis: Part of energy shortage solution, any energy source needed

ORBS - World ID Infrastructure

Connection: Sam Altman's World ID project Position: Dr. Watkins owns shares Thesis: Government support theme, human vs AI identification

Oracle (ORCL) - MISSED OPPORTUNITY

Performance: +40% in one day, Larry Ellison made ~$100B Catalyst: Trump/Altman Stargate data center announcement Lesson: Government connections driving major moves

HUT - Bitcoin Mining

Performance: +50-60% in recent months Position: "Just bought a big position"

IONQ - Quantum Computing

Position: "I think I own all of those" (referring to HUT, OCLO, IONQ)

Ethereum (ETH) - Cryptocurrency

Outlook: Positive based on Tom Lee (Fundstrat) comments Action: Planning to buy more

KEY INVESTMENT THEMES

Government Support = Performance Driver

Trump administration connections driving major gains
Sam Altman government relationships
Larry Ellison/Oracle government ties
"Government support appears to be the driver of economic activity"

AI Energy Demand

Creating shortage across energy sectors
Driving nuclear resurgence
Small modular reactors for data centers

Investment Strategy Principles

Options Selling: Selling call options for income/protection
Dollar Cost Averaging: Buy more when thesis holds but price drops
Risk Management: "Don't believe in fairy tales, even if they come true"
Overvaluation Awareness: Prepare for disappointment in hot stocks

EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES

Five-Year Pledge

Add investing as a monthly "bill"
Match car payment with investment amount
Text "pledge" to 87948 for ETF training

Upcoming Events

Tuesday Noon: Financial healing training (Stock Market Investors Club)
Monday: Stock options class at drboyceprime.com
Daily Morning Classes: Text "morning" to 87948

RISK WARNINGS

Overvaluation Concerns: Market in "irrational exuberance"
Execution Risks: Pre-revenue companies face delays
Regulatory Risks: Nuclear sector heavily regulated
Market Cycle Awareness: "Prepare for the next down cycle"
Cinderella Warning: "Superstar stocks can become losers next year"

PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Community Results: Multiple investors reporting 400%+ gains on OKLO Dr. Watkins Portfolio: "Today might have been my best day all year"

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaultbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 22, 2025

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Consumer Staples & Beverages

Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
- Reason: Usage of alcohol dropping significantly
Soft Drinks: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Dr Pepper
- Status: Bear markets, especially Dr Pepper
- Note: Coke trading lower than April 2022 levels

Industrial & Transportation

Rails & Truckers: Described as "pitiful"
Shipping: UPS (definitely weak), FedEx (not as bad but weak)
Airlines: Starting to show weakness
- Alaska Air: Topped out on heavy volume
- Delta: May be rolling over
Hotels: Getting "squirrely/mushy"
- Marriott: On weak side, needs support to hold

Financial Services

Exchanges: CME Group, CBOE, ICE
- Status: Bearish phases, some broken
Payroll Processing: ADP, Paychecks
- Status: Bearish phases

Healthcare

Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly
Medical Devices: Intuitive Surgical (616 → 434, down from 8 months ago)
Insurance: UnitedHealth bounced but others weak

Other Weak Areas

Waste Management: Bear markets
Restaurants: Acting very poorly (most names)
Oil: Still weak, though not as bad as before
Cruise Lines: Royal Caribbean broke 50-day moving average

⚠️ BUBBLE WARNING SIGNALS (Sept 22)

"1999 Vibes" - Gary's Red Flags

Nuclear Stocks: OKLO - $21B market cap, NO SALES, down 13% to up 5% same day
Quantum Computing: $8.2B market cap, $18→$28 in 5 days, was $0.72 a year ago, NO SALES
General Theme: "Buy at any price because it's on the move" mentality returning
Gary's Warning: "When the music stops... if nothing changes, they're all going to crash. And I mean crash. 90s."

Historical Pattern

MetSera: $18 IPO → bought by Pfizer for $47.50 (closed $53), NO SALES, $6B deal
Theme Stocks: Robo taxis, drones, quantum computing, nuclear all in mania phase
Dollar Stocks: Going to $3 in a week (Gary won't name them)

IPO Carnage Continues

StubHub: $27.89 open → $17.40 in 4 days, loses money 3 of last 4 quarters
Pattern: Hot IPOs opening high, then "crumbling"

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - MEGA CAP LEADERSHIP ⚡

NVIDIA: BROKE OUT! $100B OpenAI partnership announced, up $6.70, "hocket pivot with volume"
- Partnership: Deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, CEO says "additive" to guidance
Apple: Momentum accelerating - up another $11, broke above 250 (Feb high), targeting 260
- Strong iPhone demand driving suppliers: Taiwan Semi, Cirrus Logic, Orvo
Oracle: Explosive move - up $19 to $327 on continued AI theme strength
Tesla: Up $9 on political developments + robo taxi hype (targeting 488 old highs)
Meta: Hit on TikTok deal news but still in play above $800
Google: Holding gains from DOJ bounce (230→254)

AI/Data Infrastructure EXPLOSIVE BREAKOUTS

Semiconductor Equipment: Another strong day - Applied Materials, LAM Research, KLAC, ASML
Data Center Construction/Energy: All moving on NVIDIA news
- Symbols: CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS - "very good setups"
Teradyne: Upgraded, up 10% (had been weaker)

Commodities - GOLD BULL MARKET

Gold: Successful 18-week breakout, 318→345 in 3 weeks ("big bull market")
Gold Miners: 55→74 in 6 weeks ("holy crap"), miners leading is bullish signal

Financial Services

Major Banks: Strong performance
- JPMorgan: New yearly high
- Goldman Sachs: Right at highs

Energy - Nuclear

Uranium & Nuclear: "Straight up" on news
- Catalyst: Uranium reserve announcement to cut Russian dependence
- Caution: Some stocks have $14B market caps with zero sales

Individual Standouts

Tesla: Up big on Elon Musk's $1B stock purchase
Oracle: Driving the AI/data center rally

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

S&P 500 at record highs (3.3x sales - highest in history)
Fed rate cut expected Wednesday (100% certainty)
20/20 times Fed cut with S&P at highs = stocks higher 12 months later (+13.9% avg)
But 11/22 times = stocks lower 1 month later

Watch List

Consumer Discretionary: Mixed signals with travel weakness
Technology Broad: Beyond AI/semi equipment
Small Cap: Monitoring for rotation opportunities

📊 Key Market Metrics (Sept 22)

NASDAQ: Up 157 today on mega-cap strength
Dow: Up 66
Top 7 Stocks: 64% of NASDAQ 100 weight (driving indices higher)
10-Year Treasury: Rates ticking up again (no down days since Fed cut!)
Russell 2000: Still weak, small caps lagging

Technical Breakouts Confirmed

Gold: 318→345 (18-week range breakout successful)
Gold Miners: 55→74 in 6 weeks
NVIDIA: Finally broke dormant range on partnership news
Apple: 241→250→targeting 260

🚨 VENDOR FINANCING CONCERN

NVIDIA/OpenAI Deal: Gary questioning if this is "vendor financing" like in 1999

"You give money to somebody and they buy your stuff"
Plans to investigate this structure further
Historical parallel to dot-com era financing schemes

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS (Sept 19)

Real-World Observations:

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
- Houses staying on market much longer
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

🎯 Gary's Key Themes (Updated Sept 22)

"1999 Bubble Conditions" - No-sales companies with multi-billion market caps, "buy at any price" mentality
Mega-Cap Market - NVIDIA breakout + Apple momentum + Tesla politics = NASDAQ leadership
Travel Sector Collapse - Systematic topping in hotels, airlines (except United)
Gold Bull Market - Successful technical breakout, miners leading (bullish signal)
Theme Stock Mania - Nuclear, quantum computing, robo taxis, drones all in speculative phase
Interest Rate Paradox - Fed cuts but yields rising daily since cut
IPO Warning Continues - Hot IPOs "crumbling" after initial pop

Gary's Big Picture: "Getting more frothy" but setups in AI/data centers look strong. Watching for vendor financing concerns in NVIDIA deal.

💡 TRADE NOTES & SETUPS

Oracle (ORCL): EXPLOSIVE - up $19 to $327 with volume, Gary's defense thesis playing out

NVIDIA (NVDA): Finally broke out on OpenAI news, "hocket pivot with volume" - move through today's highs confirms

Data Center Construction/Energy: All setting up for "further move" - CEG, GEV, VST, EME, FIX, AGX, VRT, NBIS

Apple (AAPL): Gary admits he "should have bought" Friday's technical break - now targeting 260

Gold/Miners: 18-week breakout thesis successful - GLD (318→345), miners leading is bullish

Gary's Miss: Admits missing Apple's Friday technical move he flagged - up another $11 today

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaultbaum show analysis]

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Dr. Boyce Watkins Market Insights Tracker

Episode: September 19, 2025

LEADING SECTORS

Nuclear/Clean Energy 🔥

Primary Driver: AI energy demand creating shortage
Government Support: Strong institutional backing
Key Theme: Small modular reactors (SMRs) for AI infrastructure

Uranium 🔥

Driver: Expected shortage and higher demand from AI
Performance: Strong institutional acknowledgment of supply constraints

Energy (Traditional) 📈

Theme: "Energy from any and every way they can"
Government Support: Key driver of economic activity

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

OKLO - Nuclear Power Company

Current Price: $135 (was $8 a few months ago - 1,587% gain) Position: Dr. Watkins owns, selling call options

🚀 BULL CASE:

AI driving clean energy demand
Strong government/institutional support (Trump connection)
Recurring revenue model (sells electricity under long-term contracts)
Advanced fuel recycling technology
Fast reactor design with liquid metal cooling
Beyond hardware sales - utility-like business model

⚠️ BEAR CASE:

Execution Risk: Pre-revenue company, no commercial plants yet
Regulatory Risk: Slow nuclear regulation, past license applications denied
Technical Risk: Supply chain constraints for specialized uranium
Financial Risk: High capital requirements for reactor construction
Competition: Other SMR companies, renewable alternatives
Valuation Risk: "Probably overvalued" - market in "irrational exuberance"

Strategy: Selling deep out-of-money call options, prepared for pullback

URA - Uranium ETF

Performance: +75% YTD Position: Dr. Watkins owns Thesis: Uranium shortage due to AI energy demands

METC - Ramaco Resources (Coal)

ORBS - World ID Infrastructure

Connection: Sam Altman's World ID project Position: Dr. Watkins owns shares Thesis: Government support theme, human vs AI identification

Oracle (ORCL) - MISSED OPPORTUNITY

Performance: +40% in one day, Larry Ellison made ~$100B Catalyst: Trump/Altman Stargate data center announcement Lesson: Government connections driving major moves

HUT - Bitcoin Mining

Performance: +50-60% in recent months Position: "Just bought a big position"

IONQ - Quantum Computing

Position: "I think I own all of those" (referring to HUT, OCLO, IONQ)

Ethereum (ETH) - Cryptocurrency

Outlook: Positive based on Tom Lee (Fundstrat) comments Action: Planning to buy more

KEY INVESTMENT THEMES

Government Support = Performance Driver

Trump administration connections driving major gains
Sam Altman government relationships
Larry Ellison/Oracle government ties
"Government support appears to be the driver of economic activity"

AI Energy Demand

Creating shortage across energy sectors
Driving nuclear resurgence
Small modular reactors for data centers

Investment Strategy Principles

Options Selling: Selling call options for income/protection
Dollar Cost Averaging: Buy more when thesis holds but price drops
Risk Management: "Don't believe in fairy tales, even if they come true"
Overvaluation Awareness: Prepare for disappointment in hot stocks

EDUCATIONAL INITIATIVES

Five-Year Pledge

Add investing as a monthly "bill"
Match car payment with investment amount
Text "pledge" to 87948 for ETF training

Upcoming Events

Tuesday Noon: Financial healing training (Stock Market Investors Club)
Monday: Stock options class at drboyceprime.com
Daily Morning Classes: Text "morning" to 87948

RISK WARNINGS

Overvaluation Concerns: Market in "irrational exuberance"
Execution Risks: Pre-revenue companies face delays
Regulatory Risks: Nuclear sector heavily regulated
Market Cycle Awareness: "Prepare for the next down cycle"
Cinderella Warning: "Superstar stocks can become losers next year"

PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Community Results: Multiple investors reporting 400%+ gains on OKLO Dr. Watkins Portfolio: "Today might have been my best day all year"

Friday, September 19, 2025

It's been years, but I'm back!! New Format. Most Analysis is from Gary Kaulbaum.

Market Sector Tracker - Gary Kaultbaum Analysis

Last Updated: September 19, 2025

🔴 SECTORS TO AVOID (Bearish/Downtrending)

Consumer Staples & Beverages

Alcohol: Anheuser-Busch, Constellation Brands, Molson Coors
- Reason: Usage of alcohol dropping significantly
Soft Drinks: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Dr Pepper
- Status: Bear markets, especially Dr Pepper
- Note: Coke trading lower than April 2022 levels

Industrial & Transportation

Rails & Truckers: Described as "pitiful"
Shipping: UPS (definitely weak), FedEx (not as bad but weak)
Airlines: Starting to show weakness
- Alaska Air: Topped out on heavy volume
- Delta: May be rolling over
Hotels: Getting "squirrely/mushy"
- Marriott: On weak side, needs support to hold

Financial Services

Exchanges: CME Group, CBOE, ICE
- Status: Bearish phases, some broken
Payroll Processing: ADP, Paychecks
- Status: Bearish phases

Healthcare

Large Pharma: Merck, Eli Lilly
Medical Devices: Intuitive Surgical (616 → 434, down from 8 months ago)
Insurance: UnitedHealth bounced but others weak

Other Weak Areas

Waste Management: Bear markets
Restaurants: Acting very poorly (most names)
Oil: Still weak, though not as bad as before
Cruise Lines: Royal Caribbean broke 50-day moving average

🟢 LEADING SECTORS (Strong/Bullish)

Technology & AI - MEGA CAP LEADERSHIP

Microsoft: Strong pivot above 50-day MA, heavy volume (512→518 in 1 minute on triple witching)
Apple: Broke recent resistance, targeting 250-260 (closed 245, up from Feb high of 250)
Oracle: Finding support 290-300 after gap-up/drop cycle, still strong theme leader
Tesla: Broke 368 resistance, now 426, looks "pretty darn good" despite resistance ahead
Meta: Approaching 796 August high, break above $800 could trigger next leg
Google: Up 10% in 2.5 weeks (230→254) after DOJ concerns faded
NVIDIA: Range-bound, hanging on 50-day MA

AI/Data Infrastructure (Continued strength)

Semiconductor Equipment: "Gone vertical" - ASML, KLAC, LRCX
Data Storage: Seagate, Western Digital - price increases due to demand
Electronics Contract Manufacturing: Celestica

Financial Services

Major Banks: Strong performance
- JPMorgan: New yearly high
- Goldman Sachs: Right at highs

Energy - Nuclear

Uranium & Nuclear: "Straight up" on news
- Catalyst: Uranium reserve announcement to cut Russian dependence
- Caution: Some stocks have $14B market caps with zero sales

Individual Standouts

Tesla: Up big on Elon Musk's $1B stock purchase
Oracle: Driving the AI/data center rally

🟡 SECTORS SETTING UP / NEUTRAL

Market Context

S&P 500 at record highs (3.3x sales - highest in history)
Fed rate cut expected Wednesday (100% certainty)
20/20 times Fed cut with S&P at highs = stocks higher 12 months later (+13.9% avg)
But 11/22 times = stocks lower 1 month later

Watch List

Consumer Discretionary: Mixed signals with travel weakness
Technology Broad: Beyond AI/semi equipment
Small Cap: Monitoring for rotation opportunities

📊 Key Market Metrics (Current)

S&P 500 P/E: 27.3 (highest since 2000)
Top 10 Stocks: 40% of S&P 500 weight
Top 7 Stocks: 64% of NASDAQ 100 weight
QQQ: Hit another new high at close (Sept 19)
Russell 2000: Weak today
10-Year Treasury: 4.034% (rates ticked up again)

🚨 ECONOMIC WARNING SIGNS (Sept 19)

Real-World Observations:

Airports: Orlando International "quiet", LaGuardia "kind of quiet"
Transportation: Taxi drivers report "very quiet" business
Vegas: Traffic down 12% - "they went too far" with pricing
Housing Markets: Central Florida seeing significant price cuts
- Example: $1.79M → $1.59M in 30 days
- Houses staying on market much longer
Gary's Take: "We think something's up on the economy"

🎯 Gary's Key Themes (Updated Sept 19)

Mega-Cap Concentration - Top 7 names = 64% of NASDAQ 100. "When things change, if things change, we'll be on you"
Oracle Effect Continues - Still finding support, driving AI/data infrastructure
Economic Divergence - Markets hitting highs while real economy shows stress signals
Travel/Consumer Warning Escalating - "We want you as far away from restaurant stocks as possible"
Housing Reality Check - "Fantasy land prices are very much coming down"
Fed Response Expected - Economic weakness = "easier money" and more rate cuts

💡 TRADE NOTES

Oracle (ORCL): Support holding at 290-300 level after big gap up/down cycle. Gary looking to buy but hasn't yet. User had call position but exited early - considering re-entry Monday.

Next Update: [Date of next Gary Kaultbaum show analysis]